Rayquaza VSWSH Black Star Promos · SWSH147
Blaziken exJourney Together · 024/159Jumbo
Blaziken VMAXChilling Reign · 200/198Rayquaza VSWSH Black Star Promos · SWSH147Rayquaza VSWSH Black Star Promos · SWSH147A worse copy of the same card sells for less, and how much less depends on the condition and the era. Every chart compares conditions of the same card from recorded sales; the board at the bottom finds live asks priced under that usual gap.
Same card, pooled over 5,787 cards, 90 days. 87% before discrediting inverted prices.
Damaged Vintage copies sell for 21% of Near Mint, on 207 cards.
157 opportunities · best edge $374Asks at least 20% and $5 under what their condition usually costs against today’s cheapest Near Mint ask.Live asks priced under their condition’s usual share of the Near Mint ask. See the board ↓
What is each condition worth against Near Mint on the same card?
Price as a share of Near Mint (log scale)
Each dot is a condition’s price as a share of Near Mint on the same card, with its 95% range. The faint tick is the reading before discrediting inverted prices.
What is any condition worth in terms of any other?
| Row condition | NM | LP | MP | HP | DMG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NM | |||||
| LP | |||||
| MP | |||||
| HP | |||||
| DMG |
Column condition
Read across: the row’s condition sells for this share of the column’s, on the same card. Red, the row sells for less; hatched, too few cards to say.
Does the condition discount depend on the card’s era or price?
| Era group | LP | MP | HP | DMG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vintage | ||||
| Classic | ||||
| Mid | ||||
| Modern |
Condition
By era, the gap (by 10% or more) differs for every condition (p < 0.001); its spread differs for every condition (p < 0.001).
Each cell is a condition’s price as a share of Near Mint on the same card. Brighter is a wider gap; the small number is cards.
Which live copies are priced under their condition’s usual discount right now?
Charts rebuilt weekly from recorded sales that state a condition (last run 2026-10-08); a gap compares the same card sold in both conditions and needs at least 15 such cards. A worse condition priced at or above a better one on the same card is discredited and left out.
The board is recomputed every 30 minutes from asks already on file: ask against ask, with sales used only to learn each condition’s usual share. The full method below.
On the same card, a Lightly Played copy sold for 81% of a Near Mint one over the last 90 days, across 5,787 cards (95% range 81%–82%). Before inverted prices were discredited it read 87%.
Against Near Mint on the same card: Lightly Played 81%, Moderately Played 52%, Heavily Played 32%, Damaged 27%.
Yes. The widest gap is Damaged in Vintage, at 21% of Near Mint. Lightly Played runs from 62% of Near Mint in Vintage to 89% in Modern.
On one card, a worse condition priced at or above a better one is set aside as the wrong number — usually a thin market or shipping. It is left out of every chart and the board, and nothing else on the site changes.
Only cards that sold in both conditions in the same window count, so the gap is the condition and not the card. Each card gives one ratio of its two median prices; the page shows the median across at least 15 such cards, with a 95% range from resampling the cards.
It takes today’s cheapest fresh Near Mint ask for the card, multiplies it by the condition’s usual share in the card’s era, and lists an ask in that condition at least 20% and $5 under that price. Sales only teach the usual share; the edge is ask against ask.
See also: Grader Arbitrage — the same card priced in every grading company’s slab. Language Arbitrage — the same card priced in Japanese and in English.
Every admitted recorded sale of a raw English card that states its condition — Near Mint, Lightly Played, Moderately Played, Heavily Played or Damaged. A sale with no stated condition never enters any number. A card's price in a condition is the median of its sales over the trailing 90 days, widened to 180 or 365 only when 90 do not hold enough cards; it needs at least 3 sales, and one whose dearest sale is more than 5× its own median is refused.
Matched cards only: a card with sales in BOTH conditions in the same window contributes one ratio of its two medians, and the gap is the median of those ratios across at least 15 cards, with a 95% interval from resampling the cards.
Walking a card from Near Mint down, a condition priced at or above the lowest credited better condition is discredited: left out of every pair, chart and board row, and never the anchor for a worse one. Near Mint is never discredited, and nothing outside this study changes. The ladder draws each ratio before the rule as a faint tick, so what it costs is visible.
Whether the gap differs by era group or by card price is a Kruskal–Wallis test on the per-card ratios — on its level and on its spread — with a permutation p adjusted (Benjamini–Hochberg) across every test. A card's price band is the mid-price of its two conditions, never one side's own price. A split is drawn only when a test clears 0.05 AND its largest group gap is at least 10%.
Ask against ask, at the same moment. For each card, the reference is the cheapest fresh active Near Mint ask (at least $10); the usual price of a lower condition is that ask times the condition's share of Near Mint — in the card's own era when the era split is significant, pooled otherwise. An ask is listed when it sits at least 20% and $5 under that usual price, and no lower than a third of it (a cheaper ask is usually not the same card). Fresh means a TCGplayer ask read within 14 days, or an eBay listing no older than 60 days read within 7; an eBay ask also needs 3 recorded sales in its own condition. The Near Mint ask must be anchored: the card needs 5 Near Mint sales in 90 days, and the ask must sit within half and 2× their median or the row is dropped. Past 1.5× (or under two thirds) the row stays on the board, greyed and flagged as a thin Near Mint market.
As of 2026-10-08 · built 2026-10-08
| # | Card | Cond | AskWhat the copy costs, delivered (item + shipping) when shipping is known. | NM nowToday’s cheapest fresh Near Mint ask for the same card — the live market. | UsualWhat this condition usually sells for as a share of Near Mint, from recorded sales — in the card’s era when era matters. |
|---|
Live asks under what their condition usually costs against today’s cheapest Near Mint ask. Edge is that usual price minus the ask; rows are recomputed every 30 minutes.
The charts are rebuilt weekly from recorded sales (last run 2026-10-08, sales through 2026-10-08). The board is recomputed every 30 minutes from the asks already on file.
Cards with a qualifying sales price: Near Mint 7,452, Lightly Played 7,818, Moderately Played 2,501, Heavily Played 800, Damaged 1,103. 10 condition pairs published from 14,323 matched card pairs.
Condition is the seller's word: a listing graded Lightly Played by one seller may be another's Moderately Played, and eBay conditions have no recorded sales to check them against. An ask can sell or change between refreshes. Every edge is an estimate against today's Near Mint ask, not a promise of profit.
Research classification generated from observable market data with stated confidence and assumptions. Not personalized financial advice.
| Edge $Expected minus the ask. |
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| Edge %The edge as a share of the expected price. |
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| Action |
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| 1 | Rayquaza VSWSH Black Star Promos · SWSH147 | HP | $6.31TCGTCGplayerread 5d ago | $20.30median $23.23Median of the card’s recorded Near Mint sales (17 in 90 days) — the anchor today’s ask must sit near, never the benchmark. | HP ≈ 56% of NMin Modern | $11.42$20.30 NM now × 56% (HP, in Modern) = $11.42 | +$5.11 | 45% | |
| 2 | Blaziken exJourney Together · 024/159Jumbo | LP | $6.99TCGTCGplayerread 5d ago | $14.04⚠ thin NMThin Near Mint market: today’s NM ask $14.04 sits well away from the NM sales median $8.00 (5 sales in 90 days). Read the edge with care. | LP ≈ 89% of NMin Modern | $12.49$14.04 NM now × 89% (LP, in Modern) = $12.49 | +$5.50 | 44% | |
| 3 | Blaziken VMAXChilling Reign · 200/198 | DMG | $10.31TCGTCGplayerread 5d ago | $29.98median $30.00Median of the card’s recorded Near Mint sales (13 in 90 days) — the anchor today’s ask must sit near, never the benchmark. | DMG ≈ 53% of NMin Modern | $15.93$29.98 NM now × 53% (DMG, in Modern) = $15.93 | +$5.62 | 35% | |
| 4 | Rayquaza VSWSH Black Star Promos · SWSH147 | MP | $9.48TCGTCGplayerread 5d ago | $20.30median $23.23Median of the card’s recorded Near Mint sales (17 in 90 days) — the anchor today’s ask must sit near, never the benchmark. | MP ≈ 76% of NMin Modern | $15.51$20.30 NM now × 76% (MP, in Modern) = $15.51 | +$6.03 | 39% | |
| 5 | Rayquaza VSWSH Black Star Promos · SWSH147 | LP | $11.99TCGTCGplayerread 5d ago | $20.30median $23.23Median of the card’s recorded Near Mint sales (17 in 90 days) — the anchor today’s ask must sit near, never the benchmark. | LP ≈ 89% of NMin Modern | $18.06$20.30 NM now × 89% (LP, in Modern) = $18.06 | +$6.07 | 34% |