Every set’s price is plotted against its age since launch rather than the calendar, so sets released years apart are compared at the same point in their lives. The research asks where a new set has historically been cheapest, and at what age that low is confirmed.
The set's top rarity tier, bought at launch — the cards people open boxes for. Membership is fixed on release day. Median 10 cards per set.
Through 2026-09-27, the last fully-synced day.
On the chase cards basket, a Modern set bottoms 17 months after launch (middle half 11–28), −50.0% against its own day zero, and buying there paid +39.1% in six months — 24 of 24 sets positive. Mega Evolution is in that window now: month 12, −60.0% from its day zero, 0.0% off its low.
Sets in the bottoming window today on the chase cards basket, ranked by how much of the historical bottom pattern they match. Each one opens to its own top cards, with their day-zero prices, their lows and what they cost today.
Month 12, −60.0% from day zero (release-week daily prices), −44.0% from month 1, 0.0% off its low, 0 days since that low, still making new lows, matched cohort paid not enough comparable sets (n = 0).
Its five dearest cards today
| Card | Rarity | Day 0 | Its low | Today | vs day 0 | Off its low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mega Lucario ex | Mega Hyper Rare | $586.61 | $229.352026-05-18 · 7.7mo | $242.71 | −58.6% | +5.8% |
| Mega Lucario ex | Special illustration rare | $353.17 | $151.062026-01-12 · 3.5mo | $178.78 | −49.4% | +18.4% |
| Mega Gardevoir ex | Special illustration rare | $507.41 | $164.112026-01-05 · 3.3mo | $174.13 | −65.7% | +6.1% |
| Mega Venusaur ex | Special illustration rare | $208.69 | $117.522026-03-09 · 5.4mo | $150.72 | −27.8% | +28.3% |
| Mega Latias ex | Special illustration rare | $292.16 | $73.372026-03-02 · 5.2mo | $76.15 | −73.9% | +3.8% |
| Lillie's Determination | Special illustration rare | $218.73 | $55.032026-09-27 · 12.0mo | $55.03 | −74.8% | +0.0% |
| Mega Kangaskhan ex | Special illustration rare | $138.77 | $53.602026-09-26 · 12.0mo | $54.00 | −61.1% | +0.7% |
| Mega Absol ex | Special illustration rare | $126.85 | $48.812026-08-23 · 10.9mo | $51.70 | −59.2% | +5.9% |
| Acerola's Mischief | Special illustration rare | $82.93 | $30.272026-09-27 · 12.0mo | $30.27 | −63.5% | +0.0% |
| Wally's Compassion | Special illustration rare | $34.23 | $19.052026-08-11 · 10.5mo | $20.92 | −38.9% | +9.8% |
Month 18, −72.0% from day zero (release-week daily prices), −53.9% from month 1, 0.0% off its low, 0 days since that low, still making new lows, matched cohort paid not enough comparable sets (n = 0).
Its five dearest cards today
| Card | Rarity | Day 0 | Its low | Today | vs day 0 | Off its low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lillie's Clefairy ex | Special illustration rare | $305.73 | $96.182026-09-26 · 18.0mo | $96.56 | −68.4% | +0.4% |
| Salamence ex | Special illustration rare | $175.06 | $53.392026-09-25 · 17.9mo | $53.66 | −69.3% | +0.5% |
| N's Zoroark ex | Special illustration rare | $186.16 | $42.632026-09-27 · 18.0mo | $42.63 | −77.1% | +0.0% |
| Iono's Bellibolt ex | Special illustration rare | $112.67 | $35.062026-09-26 · 18.0mo | $35.06 | −68.9% | +0.0% |
| Hop's Zacian ex | Special illustration rare | $144.70 | $28.782026-01-19 · 9.8mo | $29.52 | −79.6% | +2.6% |
| Volcanion ex | Special illustration rare | $50.25 | $17.292026-09-23 · 17.9mo | $17.31 | −65.6% | +0.1% |
| N's Zoroark ex | Hyper rare | $42.51 | $12.382026-09-25 · 17.9mo | $12.91 | −69.6% | +4.3% |
| Iono's Bellibolt ex | Hyper rare | $45.64 | $9.802026-01-12 · 9.5mo | $11.48 | −74.8% | +17.1% |
| Spiky Energy | Hyper rare | $19.44 | $2.512026-01-05 · 9.3mo | $3.39 | −82.6% | +35.1% |
Month 24, −67.5% from day zero (release-week daily prices), −53.6% from month 1, 50.7% off its low, 261 days since that low, matched cohort paid +32.2% median (+25.0%…+54.6%), n = 5.
Its five dearest cards today
| Card | Rarity | Day 0 | Its low | Today | vs day 0 | Off its low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dachsbun ex | Special illustration rare | $30.21 | $22.472024-09-14 · 1d | $77.19 | +155.5% | +243.5% |
| Hydrapple ex | Special illustration rare | $52.45 | $17.462025-08-28 · 11.5mo | $39.71 | −24.3% | +127.4% |
| Terapagos ex | Special illustration rare | $131.92 | $30.322026-01-05 · 15.7mo | $34.44 | −73.9% | +13.6% |
| Galvantula ex | Special illustration rare | $47.26 | $13.492025-12-22 · 15.3mo | $18.90 | −60.0% | +40.1% |
| Lacey | Special illustration rare | $82.33 | $16.062026-01-05 · 15.7mo | $17.87 | −78.3% | +11.3% |
| Terapagos ex | Hyper rare | $35.10 | $8.122025-07-06 · 9.7mo | $12.77 | −63.6% | +57.3% |
| Briar | Special illustration rare | $31.75 | $11.212026-09-08 · 23.8mo | $12.17 | −61.7% | +8.6% |
| Area Zero Underdepths | Hyper rare | $32.02 | $6.922025-10-20 · 13.2mo | $9.56 | −70.1% | +38.2% |
| Bravery Charm | Hyper rare | $18.68 | $3.652026-09-27 · 24.4mo | $3.65 | −80.5% | +0.0% |
Month 23, −41.3% from day zero (release-week daily prices), −48.0% from month 1, 18.0% off its low, 268 days since that low, matched cohort paid +33.1% median (+25.7%…+62.9%), n = 6.
Its five dearest cards today
| Card | Rarity | Day 0 | Its low | Today | vs day 0 | Off its low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pikachu ex | Special illustration rare | $363.38 | $253.022026-02-23 · 15.5mo | $285.22 | −21.5% | +12.7% |
| Latias ex | Special illustration rare | $187.38 | $149.432026-01-26 · 14.6mo | $186.93 | −0.2% | +25.1% |
| Milotic ex | Special illustration rare | $91.23 | $80.162024-11-15 · 7d | $120.91 | +32.5% | +50.8% |
| Pikachu ex | Hyper rare | $66.61 | $48.102025-11-24 · 12.5mo | $80.22 | +20.4% | +66.8% |
| Durant ex | Special illustration rare | $21.80 | $18.512024-11-09 · 1d | $39.94 | +83.2% | +115.8% |
| Hydreigon ex | Special illustration rare | $106.75 | $35.542026-08-04 · 20.8mo | $36.76 | −65.6% | +3.4% |
| Lisia's Appeal | Special illustration rare | $108.19 | $26.322026-08-29 · 21.7mo | $28.20 | −73.9% | +7.1% |
| Alolan Exeggutor ex | Special illustration rare | $76.55 | $26.262026-02-16 · 15.3mo | $26.84 | −64.9% | +2.2% |
| Jasmine's Gaze | Special illustration rare | $62.41 | $18.402026-01-05 · 13.9mo | $20.66 | −66.9% | +12.3% |
| Archaludon ex | Special illustration rare | $29.55 | $10.172025-11-17 · 12.3mo | $12.54 | −57.6% | +23.3% |
Month 20, −50.9% from day zero (release-week daily prices), −42.8% from month 1, 42.3% off its low, 254 days since that low, matched cohort paid +39.2% median (+21.6%…+73.2%), n = 10.
Its five dearest cards today
| Card | Rarity | Day 0 | Its low | Today | vs day 0 | Off its low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Umbreon ex | Special illustration rare | $1,600.00 | $829.362025-09-02 · 7.5mo | $1,384.05 | −13.5% | +66.9% |
| Sylveon ex | Special illustration rare | $708.70 | $288.652025-08-21 · 7.1mo | $514.88 | −27.3% | +78.4% |
| Leafeon ex | Special illustration rare | $489.00 | $213.502025-09-03 · 7.5mo | $333.47 | −31.8% | +56.2% |
| Eevee ex | Special illustration rare | $116.25 | $106.232025-12-22 · 11.1mo | $176.86 | +52.1% | +66.5% |
| Roaring Moon ex | Special illustration rare | $225.00 | $135.822025-08-23 · 7.2mo | $167.04 | −25.8% | +23.0% |
| Dragapult ex | Special illustration rare | $89.14 | $85.242026-01-26 · 12.3mo | $103.60 | +16.2% | +21.5% |
| Raging Bolt ex | Special illustration rare | $99.99 | $60.442026-02-23 · 13.2mo | $66.81 | −33.2% | +10.5% |
| Pikachu ex | Hyper rare | $325.00 | $33.622025-07-24 · 6.2mo | $61.59 | −81.0% | +83.2% |
| Bloodmoon Ursaluna ex | Special illustration rare | $99.99 | $59.642026-09-24 · 20.2mo | $59.68 | −40.3% | +0.1% |
| Gholdengo ex | Special illustration rare | $67.00 | $40.612026-03-23 · 14.1mo | $47.85 | −28.6% | +17.8% |
The vertical axis is percent, vs. its launch-day price, one of every card in the set, held from day 0. Every line is drawn against the set’s own age since release rather than the calendar.
The green zone is the call. Of the 21 sets in this cohort, 11 have a bottom that held and bounced, and those bottoms fell between months 1–7 after release; the blue density is faint at the edges and full between the quartiles. The solid rule is the median, month 6, and the buy zone runs from it to month 7. The axis reads as three stretches: from release to month 6 most sets were still falling, the zone is the call, and everything after month 7 is late — nine bottoms in ten are already behind it. A low that turned out to BE the low — it held, and the price came off it. Not a call made at the time; a fact established afterwards. How it is measured
The blue profile along the bottom edge is how many of those 21 sets were sitting within the selected tolerance of their own low at each age — taller is more of them.
The flags along the top edge are reference marks — things that happened at an age, never a claim about price. A hatched flag is somebody else’s rule of thumb rather than something measured here. Standard rotation: Across 24 sets on this chart, Standard rotation took the set's cards out of the format between month 28.9 and month 34.2 (middle half; median month 31.2). Rotation dates are read from the official announcements cited here; the age is measured against each set’s own release date. 87 sets released before the earliest rotation announcement on file (2021-09-10) carry no regulation mark and no rotation age: the rotation that took them out is not a date this platform has, and they are excluded from this band rather than dated by the oldest announcement we do have. Next main set (1): The first main set of the same era released between month 2.3 and month 3.2 (middle half; median month 3), measured over 112 sets from this catalog’s own release dates. A main set is one with no sub-set suffix and at least 80 cards. Next main set (2): The second main set of the same era released between month 5.3 and month 6.2 (middle half; median month 6), measured over 102 sets from this catalog’s own release dates. A main set is one with no sub-set suffix and at least 80 cards. Next main set (3): The third main set of the same era released between month 8 and month 9.2 (middle half; median month 9), measured over 90 sets from this catalog’s own release dates. A main set is one with no sub-set suffix and at least 80 cards. Second print wave (reference): A rule of thumb, not a measurement: reprints of a popular set are widely said to reach shelves six to twelve weeks after release. This platform has no reprint dataset, so nothing here was counted. Recorded the same way `inferPrintStatus` records the print window — as a community claim (packages/quant/src/features.ts:196-206). Print window ends (reference): A rule of thumb, not a measurement. A set is in active print from the day it is released, and this band draws that whole claimed run: day 0 through month 18. What nobody can date is when the run STOPS — commonly put at twelve to eighteen months after release — so months 0 to 12 of this band are not in dispute and months 12 to 18 are the actual uncertainty tail. `inferPrintStatus` already treats the same claim as a community one and gives it the smallest weight on its list (packages/quant/src/features.ts:196-206); it is drawn here for the same reason and with the same caveat. The grey bar is Study B’s 80% band around the composite’s own bottom, with its mode ticked.
Thick lines with a halo are composites — an average over many sets, drawn over the cohort rather than in it (1 on screen). Thin lines are individual sets, coloured by era, oldest indigo to newest cyan (0 on screen).
Every set young enough to be a decision today, measured on the chase cards basket, ranked or not — so a set missing from the list above can be found here with the reason. Each row opens to its own top cards.
| Set | Age | From day 0 | From month 1 | Off its low | Since low | Phase | Bottom | Score | Matched cohort paid | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 30th Celebrationday 0 2026-09-16 · release-week daily prices | 0m | −35.4% | — | 0.0% | 0d | MARKDOWN | still making new lows | 20 | not enough comparable sets (n = 0) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Its top 10 cards on the chase cards basket · Priced on day 0: 10 of 10
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| Pitch Blackday 0 2026-07-17 · release-week daily prices | 2m | −54.2% | −21.1% | 0.0% | 0d | MARKDOWN | still making new lows | 25 | not enough comparable sets (n = 2) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Its top 7 cards on the chase cards basket · Priced on day 0: 7 of 7
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| Chaos Risingday 0 2026-05-22 · release-week daily prices | 4m | −68.8% | −45.7% | 0.0% | 0d | MARKDOWN | still making new lows | 55 | not enough comparable sets (n = 0) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Its top 7 cards on the chase cards basket · Priced on day 0: 7 of 7
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| Perfect Orderday 0 2026-03-27 · release-week daily prices | 6m | −55.8% | −44.0% | 0.0% | 0d | MARKDOWN | still making new lows | 54 | not enough comparable sets (n = 0) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Its top 6 cards on the chase cards basket · Priced on day 0: 6 of 7
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| Ascended Heroesday 0 2026-01-30 · release-week daily prices | 8m | −78.3% | −39.1% | 0.3% | 2d | MARKDOWN | held so far, but not long enough yet | 58 | not enough comparable sets (n = 0) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Its top 10 cards on the chase cards basket · Priced on day 0: 19 of 57
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| Phantasmal Flamesday 0 2025-11-14 · release-week daily prices | 10m | −52.5% | −13.9% | 7.4% | 282d | ACCUMULATION | confirmed bottom | 54 | not enough comparable sets (n = 1) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Its top 6 cards on the chase cards basket · Priced on day 0: 6 of 6
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| Mega EvolutionOn the listday 0 2025-09-26 · release-week daily prices | 12m | −60.0% | −44.0% | 0.0% | 0d | MARKDOWN | still making new lows | 84 | not enough comparable sets (n = 0) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Its top 10 cards on the chase cards basket · Priced on day 0: 11 of 12
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| Black Boltday 0 2025-07-18 · release-week daily prices | 14m | −54.8% | −8.6% | 33.9% | 247d | MARKUP | confirmed bottom | 45 | not enough comparable sets (n = 1) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Its top 3 cards on the chase cards basket · Priced on day 0: 3 of 7
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| White Flareday 0 2025-07-18 · release-week daily prices | 14m | −61.9% | −29.8% | 13.7% | 219d | MARKUP | no higher low after it yet | 50 | +57.7% median (+28.7%…+97.4%), n = 5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Its top 5 cards on the chase cards basket · Priced on day 0: 5 of 7
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| Destined Rivalsday 0 2025-05-30 · release-week daily prices | 16m | −28.6% | −13.8% | 1.3% | 240d | ACCUMULATION | confirmed bottom | 63 | not enough comparable sets (n = 1) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Its top 10 cards on the chase cards basket · Priced on day 0: 16 of 18
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| Journey TogetherOn the listday 0 2025-03-28 · release-week daily prices | 18m | −72.0% | −53.9% | 0.0% | 0d | MARKDOWN | still making new lows | 80 | not enough comparable sets (n = 0) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Its top 9 cards on the chase cards basket · Priced on day 0: 9 of 9
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| Prismatic EvolutionsOn the listday 0 2025-01-17 · release-week daily prices | 20m | −50.9% | −42.8% | 42.3% | 254d | DISTRIBUTION | confirmed bottom | 77 | +39.2% median (+21.6%…+73.2%), n = 10 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Its top 10 cards on the chase cards basket · Priced on day 0: 23 of 37
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| Surging SparksOn the listday 0 2024-11-08 · release-week daily prices | 23m | −41.3% | −48.0% | 18.0% | 268d | MARKUP | confirmed bottom | 80 | +33.1% median (+25.7%…+62.9%), n = 6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Its top 10 cards on the chase cards basket · Priced on day 0: 17 of 17
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| Stellar CrownOn the listday 0 2024-09-13 · release-week daily prices | 24m | −67.5% | −53.6% | 50.7% | 261d | MARKUP | confirmed bottom | 80 | +32.2% median (+25.0%…+54.6%), n = 5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Its top 9 cards on the chase cards basket · Priced on day 0: 9 of 9
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| Shrouded Fableday 0 2024-08-02 · release-week daily prices | 26m | −49.4% | −22.2% | 11.1% | 261d | DISTRIBUTION | confirmed bottom | 55 | not enough comparable sets (n = 2) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Its top 10 cards on the chase cards basket · Priced on day 0: 10 of 10
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| Twilight Masqueradeday 0 2024-05-24 · release-week daily prices | 28m | −16.4% | −9.8% | 26.6% | 240d | MARKUP | no higher low after it yet | 55 | not enough comparable sets (n = 0) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Its top 10 cards on the chase cards basket · Priced on day 0: 17 of 17
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| Temporal Forcesday 0 2024-03-22 · release-week daily prices | 30m | −43.7% | −38.5% | 31.7% | 261d | MARKUP | confirmed bottom | 63 | +37.0% median (+19.1%…+50.8%), n = 6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Its top 10 cards on the chase cards basket · Priced on day 0: 16 of 16
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| Paldean Fatesday 0 2024-02-01 · its first full calendar month | 32m | −42.4% | −24.6% | 293.1% | 724d | DISTRIBUTION | confirmed bottom | 37 | not enough comparable sets (n = 2) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Its top 10 cards on the chase cards basket · Priced on day 0: 14 of 14
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| Paradox Riftday 0 2023-12-01 · its first full calendar month | 35m | −41.5% | −41.5% | 28.0% | 702d | MARKUP | confirmed bottom | 46 | not enough comparable sets (n = 2) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Its top 10 cards on the chase cards basket · Priced on day 0: 22 of 22
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Measured on chase cards, held: bought at the set's own day zero and never rebalanced. The set's top rarity tier, bought at launch — the cards people open boxes for. Membership is fixed on release day.
| Statistic | Median | Spread | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bottom lands at | month 17 | IQR month 11 to month 28 · p10 month 6, p90 month 34 | 24 |
| Depth below day zero | −50.0% | IQR −53.1% to −41.4% · p10 −65.2%, p90 −27.3% | 24 |
| Depth below month 1 | −44.7% | IQR −51.5% to −25.9% · p10 −58.5%, p90 −16.0% | 24 |
| Payoff 180 days past the bottom | +39.1% | 24 of 24 positive, worst +7.6%, best +118.6% | 24 |
| Payoff 365 days past the bottom | +46.5% | 16 of 16 positive, worst +14.9%, best +239.4% | 16 |
| Payoff 730 days past the bottom | +69.9% | 6 of 6 positive, worst +28.4%, best +257.1% | 6 |
| Under 24 months old | −54.2% | 0 of 13 above their day zero | 13 |
| 24 to 36 months old | −25.5% | 2 of 6 above their day zero | 6 |
| Past 36 months old | −9.7% | 5 of 15 above their day zero | 15 |
24 of 34 eligible sets have a CONFIRMED bottom — a low that then held 90 days with no new low, bounced at least 10% and printed a higher low after it. The rest: 1 held so far, but not long enough yet, 2 no higher low after it yet, 7 still making new lows. Every cross-set number here is anchored at month one, the only zero both day-zero clocks share.
At n = 24, a rank correlation must exceed |ρ| = 0.40 to clear p = 0.05. Every p is a seeded permutation test over 10,000 shuffles and every q is Benjamini–Hochberg across the whole family; only a q under 0.1 is called a signal, and 3 rows cleared it.
| Predictor | Outcome | ρ or H | n | p | q | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Days to the next set | when the bottom lands | ρ −0.14 | 20 | 0.567 | 0.822 | No signal at this n: the outcome runs lower with a higher nextSetGapDays (ρ = -0.14, n = 20). |
| Days to the next set | how deep it goes | ρ +0.01 | 20 | 0.957 | 0.977 | No signal at this n: the outcome runs higher with a higher nextSetGapDays (ρ = 0.01, n = 20). |
| Days to the next set | what it paid in six months | ρ −0.28 | 20 | 0.227 | 0.619 | No signal at this n: the outcome runs lower with a higher nextSetGapDays (ρ = -0.28, n = 20). |
| Print window (days to the set two later) | when the bottom lands | ρ −0.26 | 19 | 0.281 | 0.648 | No signal at this n: the outcome runs lower with a higher printWindowDays (ρ = -0.26, n = 19). |
| Print window (days to the set two later) | how deep it goes | ρ −0.11 | 19 | 0.630 | 0.822 | No signal at this n: the outcome runs lower with a higher printWindowDays (ρ = -0.11, n = 19). |
| Print window (days to the set two later) | what it paid in six months | ρ +0.13 | 19 | 0.614 | 0.822 | No signal at this n: the outcome runs higher with a higher printWindowDays (ρ = 0.13, n = 19). |
| Set type | when the bottom lands | ρ −0.13 | 24 | 0.537 | 0.822 | No signal at this n: the outcome runs lower with a higher setType (ρ = -0.13, n = 24). |
| Set type | how deep it goes | ρ +0.13 | 24 | 0.570 | 0.822 | No signal at this n: the outcome runs higher with a higher setType (ρ = 0.13, n = 24). |
| Set type | what it paid in six months | ρ +0.32 | 24 | 0.134 | 0.501 | No signal at this n: the outcome runs higher with a higher setType (ρ = 0.32, n = 24). |
| Era, in order | when the bottom lands | ρ −0.69signal | 24 | <0.001 | 0.012 | A signal: the outcome runs lower with a higher eraOrdinal (ρ = -0.69, n = 24). |
| Era, in order | how deep it goes | ρ +0.53signal | 24 | 0.009 | 0.087 | A signal: the outcome runs higher with a higher eraOrdinal (ρ = 0.53, n = 24). |
| Era, in order | what it paid in six months | ρ +0.40 | 24 | 0.050 | 0.301 | No signal at this n: the outcome runs higher with a higher eraOrdinal (ρ = 0.40, n = 24). |
| Launch hype (day-0 cost ÷ month-12 cost) | when the bottom lands | ρ +0.35 | 23 | 0.100 | 0.501 | No signal at this n: the outcome runs higher with a higher launchHype (ρ = 0.35, n = 23). |
| Launch hype (day-0 cost ÷ month-12 cost) | how deep it goes | ρ −0.61signal | 23 | 0.002 | 0.025 | A signal: the outcome runs lower with a higher launchHype (ρ = -0.61, n = 23). |
| Launch hype (day-0 cost ÷ month-12 cost) | what it paid in six months | ρ −0.07 | 23 | 0.770 | 0.855 | No signal at this n: the outcome runs lower with a higher launchHype (ρ = -0.07, n = 23). |
| Market regime at launch (90-day change) | when the bottom lands | ρ −0.14 | 22 | 0.525 | 0.822 | No signal at this n: the outcome runs lower with a higher launchRegime (ρ = -0.14, n = 22). |
| Market regime at launch (90-day change) | how deep it goes | ρ +0.12 | 22 | 0.597 | 0.822 | No signal at this n: the outcome runs higher with a higher launchRegime (ρ = 0.12, n = 22). |
| Market regime at launch (90-day change) | what it paid in six months | ρ +0.17 | 22 | 0.448 | 0.822 | No signal at this n: the outcome runs higher with a higher launchRegime (ρ = 0.17, n = 22). |
| Release quarter | when the bottom lands | H 2.83 | 24 | 0.437 | 0.822 | No difference between the groups at this n (H = 2.83, n = 24). |
| Release quarter | how deep it goes | H 2.02 | 24 | 0.595 | 0.822 | No difference between the groups at this n (H = 2.01, n = 24). |
| Release quarter | what it paid in six months | H 4.94 | 24 | 0.179 | 0.538 | No difference between the groups at this n (H = 4.94, n = 24). |
| Checklist size | when the bottom lands | ρ −0.08 | 24 | 0.701 | 0.841 | No signal at this n: the outcome runs lower with a higher setSize (ρ = -0.08, n = 24). |
| Checklist size | how deep it goes | ρ +0.24 | 24 | 0.252 | 0.630 | No signal at this n: the outcome runs higher with a higher setSize (ρ = 0.24, n = 24). |
| Checklist size | what it paid in six months | ρ −0.07 | 24 | 0.751 | 0.855 | No signal at this n: the outcome runs lower with a higher setSize (ρ = -0.07, n = 24). |
| Cards at $50+ on day zero | when the bottom lands | ρ −0.32 | 24 | 0.129 | 0.501 | No signal at this n: the outcome runs lower with a higher chaseCount50 (ρ = -0.32, n = 24). |
| Cards at $50+ on day zero | how deep it goes | ρ +0.42 | 24 | 0.042 | 0.301 | No signal at this n: the outcome runs higher with a higher chaseCount50 (ρ = 0.42, n = 24). |
| Cards at $50+ on day zero | what it paid in six months | ρ +0.01 | 24 | 0.977 | 0.977 | No signal at this n: the outcome runs higher with a higher chaseCount50 (ρ = 0.01, n = 24). |
| Share of day-0 value in the top ten | when the bottom lands | ρ +0.09 | 24 | 0.663 | 0.829 | No signal at this n: the outcome runs higher with a higher topShare10 (ρ = 0.09, n = 24). |
| Share of day-0 value in the top ten | how deep it goes | ρ −0.29 | 24 | 0.171 | 0.538 | No signal at this n: the outcome runs lower with a higher topShare10 (ρ = -0.29, n = 24). |
| Share of day-0 value in the top ten | what it paid in six months | ρ −0.05 | 24 | 0.810 | 0.868 | No signal at this n: the outcome runs lower with a higher topShare10 (ρ = -0.05, n = 24). |
Coding: Days to the next set — Days from this release to the next main set of the same era. Higher = longer alone on the shelf. · Print window (days to the set two later) — Days from this release to the SECOND main set after it — the span the launch print run is still being opened. · Set type — MAIN = 0 (no sub-set suffix, at least 80 official cards), SPECIAL = 1 (a sub-set suffix: sv03.5, sv08.5), HIGH_CLASS = 2 (no suffix, under 80 official cards). · Era, in order — Eras in release order across this cohort, 1 = earliest. An ordinal, so it asks whether this has been getting worse, not which era is best. · Launch hype (day-0 cost ÷ month-12 cost) — Day-zero basket cost divided by the same basket's cost at month 12. Above 1 = the launch was dearer than the set settled at. Refused for a set under twelve months old. · Market regime at launch (90-day change) — Log change of the whole-market composite over the 90 days ENDING on release day. Positive = the set launched into a rising market. · Release quarter — Release quarter, 1–4. NOMINAL — tested with Kruskal–Wallis H, never ranked. · Checklist size — Checklist size: the larger of the official and total card counts. · Cards at $50+ on day zero — Basket members priced at $50 or more on day zero. · Share of day-0 value in the top ten — Share of day-zero basket VALUE the ten dearest members carry, 0–1.
Signal strength by basket
Correlations are strongest on the RARITY:BULK basket (n = 30, best q = 0.003 on eraOrdinal); that basket's buy list is the one to rank on. Other baskets are shown for comparison.
| Basket | Predictor | Outcome | ρ | q | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bulk (commons, uncommons, non-holo rares) | Era, in order | when the bottom lands | −0.73signal | 0.003 | 22 |
| Every card | Era, in order | when the bottom lands | −0.63signal | 0.009 | 29 |
| Commons and uncommons | Era, in order | when the bottom lands | −0.70signal | 0.009 | 23 |
| Chase cards | Era, in order | when the bottom lands | −0.69signal | 0.012 | 24 |
| The typical card | Era, in order | when the bottom lands | −0.64signal | 0.012 | 30 |
| The typical card | Era, in order | how deep it goes | +0.61signal | 0.012 | 30 |
| Every card | Era, in order | how deep it goes | +0.59signal | 0.018 | 29 |
| Chase cards | Launch hype (day-0 cost ÷ month-12 cost) | how deep it goes | −0.61signal | 0.025 | 23 |
| The typical card | Share of day-0 value in the top ten | what it paid in six months | +0.54signal | 0.029 | 29 |
| Top 10 today | Era, in order | how deep it goes | +0.63signal | 0.030 | 26 |
| The typical card | Market regime at launch (90-day change) | what it paid in six months | +0.53signal | 0.033 | 27 |
| Top 10 today | Era, in order | when the bottom lands | −0.59signal | 0.038 | 26 |
| Top 10 today | Launch hype (day-0 cost ÷ month-12 cost) | how deep it goes | −0.56signal | 0.038 | 25 |
| Double rares (ex, V) | Market regime at launch (90-day change) | when the bottom lands | −0.71signal | 0.042 | 17 |
| Top 10 today | Cards at $50+ on day zero | when the bottom lands | −0.52signal | 0.057 | 26 |
| Bulk (commons, uncommons, non-holo rares) | Era, in order | how deep it goes | +0.59signal | 0.060 | 22 |
| The typical card | Era, in order | what it paid in six months | +0.48signal | 0.063 | 29 |
| Ultra rares (ex, V, VMAX, double rares) | Market regime at launch (90-day change) | when the bottom lands | −0.59signal | 0.066 | 25 |
| Top 10 at launch | Era, in order | when the bottom lands | −0.59signal | 0.069 | 24 |
| Top 10 at launch | Era, in order | how deep it goes | +0.56signal | 0.069 | 24 |
| Top 10 at launch | Launch hype (day-0 cost ÷ month-12 cost) | how deep it goes | −0.55signal | 0.080 | 23 |
| Chase cards | Era, in order | how deep it goes | +0.53signal | 0.087 | 24 |
| Every card | Launch hype (day-0 cost ÷ month-12 cost) | how deep it goes | −0.47 | 0.109 | 28 |
| Special illustration rares | Launch hype (day-0 cost ÷ month-12 cost) | how deep it goes | −0.72 | 0.111 | 14 |
| Every card | Cards at $50+ on day zero | when the bottom lands | −0.45 | 0.124 | 29 |
| Ultra rares (ex, V, VMAX, double rares) | Era, in order | when the bottom lands | −0.45 | 0.167 | 27 |
| Ultra rares (ex, V, VMAX, double rares) | Market regime at launch (90-day change) | how deep it goes | −0.46 | 0.167 | 25 |
| Ultra rares (ex, V, VMAX, double rares) | Cards at $50+ on day zero | what it paid in six months | +0.44 | 0.167 | 27 |
| Commons and uncommons | Era, in order | how deep it goes | +0.53 | 0.171 | 23 |
| Top 10 at launch | Cards at $50+ on day zero | when the bottom lands | −0.47 | 0.175 | 24 |
| Illustration rares | Checklist size | when the bottom lands | +0.66 | 0.183 | 16 |
| Hyper and secret rares | Era, in order | when the bottom lands | −0.61 | 0.216 | 19 |
| The typical card | Market regime at launch (90-day change) | when the bottom lands | −0.38 | 0.216 | 28 |
| Top 10 today | Launch hype (day-0 cost ÷ month-12 cost) | when the bottom lands | +0.41 | 0.220 | 25 |
| Top 10 today | Cards at $50+ on day zero | how deep it goes | +0.39 | 0.220 | 26 |
| Top 10 at launch | Cards at $50+ on day zero | how deep it goes | +0.43 | 0.238 | 24 |
| Double rares (ex, V) | Checklist size | when the bottom lands | +0.57 | 0.258 | 17 |
| Commons and uncommons | Share of day-0 value in the top ten | what it paid in six months | +0.47 | 0.265 | 22 |
| Chase cards | Era, in order | what it paid in six months | +0.40 | 0.301 | 24 |
| Chase cards | Cards at $50+ on day zero | how deep it goes | +0.42 | 0.301 | 24 |
| Double rares (ex, V) | Era, in order | when the bottom lands | −0.48 | 0.304 | 17 |
| Double rares (ex, V) | Era, in order | how deep it goes | +0.48 | 0.304 | 17 |
| Double rares (ex, V) | Cards at $50+ on day zero | when the bottom lands | −0.48 | 0.304 | 17 |
| Double rares (ex, V) | Share of day-0 value in the top ten | when the bottom lands | −0.51 | 0.304 | 17 |
| Rares | Set type | how deep it goes | −0.50 | 0.340 | 17 |
| Rares | Era, in order | when the bottom lands | −0.54 | 0.340 | 17 |
| Rares | Launch hype (day-0 cost ÷ month-12 cost) | what it paid in six months | +0.56 | 0.340 | 15 |
| Rares | Checklist size | what it paid in six months | −0.48 | 0.340 | 16 |
| Rares | Share of day-0 value in the top ten | what it paid in six months | +0.48 | 0.340 | 16 |
| Hyper and secret rares | Launch hype (day-0 cost ÷ month-12 cost) | how deep it goes | −0.51 | 0.348 | 19 |
| Ultra rares (ex, V, VMAX, double rares) | Launch hype (day-0 cost ÷ month-12 cost) | how deep it goes | −0.37 | 0.367 | 27 |
| Ultra rares (ex, V, VMAX, double rares) | Checklist size | how deep it goes | +0.34 | 0.368 | 27 |
| Ultra rares (ex, V, VMAX, double rares) | Share of day-0 value in the top ten | when the bottom lands | −0.34 | 0.368 | 27 |
| Bulk (commons, uncommons, non-holo rares) | Checklist size | when the bottom lands | +0.43 | 0.388 | 22 |
| Bulk (commons, uncommons, non-holo rares) | Share of day-0 value in the top ten | what it paid in six months | +0.42 | 0.388 | 22 |
| Rares | Market regime at launch (90-day change) | what it paid in six months | +0.44 | 0.393 | 16 |
| Rares | Release quarter | what it paid in six months | — | 0.393 | 16 |
| Rares | Share of day-0 value in the top ten | when the bottom lands | −0.40 | 0.410 | 17 |
| Ultra rares (ex, V, VMAX, double rares) | Print window (days to the set two later) | what it paid in six months | −0.31 | 0.437 | 20 |
| Ultra rares (ex, V, VMAX, double rares) | Set type | when the bottom lands | −0.28 | 0.437 | 27 |
| Ultra rares (ex, V, VMAX, double rares) | Release quarter | what it paid in six months | — | 0.437 | 27 |
| Ultra rares (ex, V, VMAX, double rares) | Checklist size | when the bottom lands | +0.30 | 0.437 | 27 |
| Ultra rares (ex, V, VMAX, double rares) | Cards at $50+ on day zero | when the bottom lands | −0.26 | 0.437 | 27 |
| Ultra rares (ex, V, VMAX, double rares) | Share of day-0 value in the top ten | how deep it goes | −0.29 | 0.437 | 27 |
| The typical card | Launch hype (day-0 cost ÷ month-12 cost) | what it paid in six months | +0.31 | 0.468 | 28 |
| The typical card | Cards at $50+ on day zero | what it paid in six months | +0.29 | 0.468 | 29 |
| Ultra rares (ex, V, VMAX, double rares) | Print window (days to the set two later) | when the bottom lands | +0.27 | 0.477 | 20 |
| Ultra rares (ex, V, VMAX, double rares) | Set type | how deep it goes | −0.23 | 0.477 | 27 |
| Ultra rares (ex, V, VMAX, double rares) | Era, in order | how deep it goes | +0.24 | 0.477 | 27 |
| Ultra rares (ex, V, VMAX, double rares) | Share of day-0 value in the top ten | what it paid in six months | +0.22 | 0.477 | 27 |
| The typical card | Checklist size | what it paid in six months | −0.27 | 0.495 | 29 |
| Chase cards | Set type | what it paid in six months | +0.32 | 0.501 | 24 |
| Chase cards | Launch hype (day-0 cost ÷ month-12 cost) | when the bottom lands | +0.35 | 0.501 | 23 |
| Chase cards | Cards at $50+ on day zero | when the bottom lands | −0.32 | 0.501 | 24 |
| Rares | Set type | when the bottom lands | +0.34 | 0.527 | 17 |
| Rares | Era, in order | what it paid in six months | +0.37 | 0.527 | 16 |
| Rares | Checklist size | when the bottom lands | +0.35 | 0.527 | 17 |
| Top 10 at launch | Checklist size | how deep it goes | +0.34 | 0.535 | 24 |
| Chase cards | Release quarter | what it paid in six months | — | 0.538 | 24 |
| Chase cards | Share of day-0 value in the top ten | how deep it goes | −0.29 | 0.538 | 24 |
| Top 10 today | Cards at $50+ on day zero | what it paid in six months | −0.30 | 0.552 | 26 |
| Ultra rares (ex, V, VMAX, double rares) | Release quarter | how deep it goes | — | 0.563 | 27 |
| Double rares (ex, V) | Era, in order | what it paid in six months | −0.41 | 0.564 | 17 |
| Double rares (ex, V) | Cards at $50+ on day zero | what it paid in six months | +0.36 | 0.564 | 17 |
| Hyper and secret rares | Days to the next set | when the bottom lands | +0.37 | 0.566 | 18 |
| Hyper and secret rares | Set type | when the bottom lands | −0.39 | 0.566 | 19 |
| Hyper and secret rares | Market regime at launch (90-day change) | how deep it goes | −0.34 | 0.566 | 19 |
| Hyper and secret rares | Market regime at launch (90-day change) | what it paid in six months | −0.33 | 0.566 | 19 |
| Hyper and secret rares | Checklist size | how deep it goes | +0.40 | 0.566 | 19 |
| Hyper and secret rares | Cards at $50+ on day zero | when the bottom lands | −0.37 | 0.566 | 19 |
| Hyper and secret rares | Share of day-0 value in the top ten | how deep it goes | −0.35 | 0.566 | 19 |
| Rares | Era, in order | how deep it goes | +0.32 | 0.567 | 17 |
| Rares | Market regime at launch (90-day change) | how deep it goes | −0.31 | 0.567 | 17 |
| Rares | Release quarter | how deep it goes | — | 0.572 | 17 |
| Top 10 today | Release quarter | how deep it goes | — | 0.599 | 26 |
| Top 10 today | Days to the next set | what it paid in six months | −0.27 | 0.604 | 22 |
| Top 10 today | Checklist size | how deep it goes | +0.25 | 0.604 | 26 |
| Top 10 today | Share of day-0 value in the top ten | how deep it goes | −0.28 | 0.604 | 26 |
| Double rares (ex, V) | Checklist size | what it paid in six months | −0.34 | 0.612 | 17 |
| Top 10 at launch | Print window (days to the set two later) | what it paid in six months | +0.33 | 0.613 | 19 |
| Top 10 at launch | Release quarter | how deep it goes | — | 0.613 | 24 |
| Top 10 today | Set type | what it paid in six months | +0.22 | 0.614 | 26 |
| Top 10 today | Launch hype (day-0 cost ÷ month-12 cost) | what it paid in six months | −0.23 | 0.614 | 25 |
| Top 10 today | Share of day-0 value in the top ten | when the bottom lands | +0.23 | 0.614 | 26 |
| Ultra rares (ex, V, VMAX, double rares) | Days to the next set | when the bottom lands | +0.18 | 0.616 | 22 |
| Ultra rares (ex, V, VMAX, double rares) | Checklist size | what it paid in six months | −0.17 | 0.616 | 27 |
| Chase cards | Days to the next set | what it paid in six months | −0.28 | 0.619 | 20 |
| Chase cards | Checklist size | how deep it goes | +0.24 | 0.630 | 24 |
| Commons and uncommons | Days to the next set | when the bottom lands | +0.39 | 0.635 | 20 |
| Commons and uncommons | Days to the next set | how deep it goes | −0.34 | 0.635 | 20 |
| Commons and uncommons | Print window (days to the set two later) | when the bottom lands | +0.30 | 0.635 | 18 |
| Commons and uncommons | Print window (days to the set two later) | what it paid in six months | +0.36 | 0.635 | 17 |
| Commons and uncommons | Set type | when the bottom lands | −0.28 | 0.635 | 23 |
| Commons and uncommons | Market regime at launch (90-day change) | when the bottom lands | −0.29 | 0.635 | 23 |
| Commons and uncommons | Checklist size | when the bottom lands | +0.32 | 0.635 | 23 |
| Ultra rares (ex, V, VMAX, double rares) | Print window (days to the set two later) | how deep it goes | +0.18 | 0.636 | 20 |
| Ultra rares (ex, V, VMAX, double rares) | Launch hype (day-0 cost ÷ month-12 cost) | when the bottom lands | −0.14 | 0.636 | 27 |
| Ultra rares (ex, V, VMAX, double rares) | Market regime at launch (90-day change) | what it paid in six months | +0.14 | 0.639 | 25 |
| The typical card | Cards at $50+ on day zero | when the bottom lands | −0.23 | 0.643 | 30 |
| Top 10 at launch | Cards at $50+ on day zero | what it paid in six months | −0.27 | 0.644 | 24 |
| Chase cards | Print window (days to the set two later) | when the bottom lands | −0.26 | 0.648 | 19 |
| Illustration rares | Days to the next set | when the bottom lands | +0.40 | 0.677 | 13 |
| Illustration rares | Set type | when the bottom lands | −0.41 | 0.677 | 16 |
| Illustration rares | Set type | what it paid in six months | −0.37 | 0.677 | 16 |
| Illustration rares | Market regime at launch (90-day change) | how deep it goes | −0.49 | 0.677 | 16 |
| Illustration rares | Release quarter | when the bottom lands | — | 0.677 | 16 |
| Illustration rares | Cards at $50+ on day zero | how deep it goes | −0.45 | 0.677 | 16 |
| Illustration rares | Share of day-0 value in the top ten | how deep it goes | −0.40 | 0.677 | 16 |
| Top 10 at launch | Launch hype (day-0 cost ÷ month-12 cost) | what it paid in six months | −0.26 | 0.678 | 23 |
| Ultra rares (ex, V, VMAX, double rares) | Launch hype (day-0 cost ÷ month-12 cost) | what it paid in six months | +0.12 | 0.682 | 27 |
| Top 10 at launch | Release quarter | what it paid in six months | — | 0.707 | 24 |
| The typical card | Share of day-0 value in the top ten | when the bottom lands | −0.21 | 0.709 | 30 |
| Every card | Cards at $50+ on day zero | how deep it goes | +0.30 | 0.726 | 29 |
| Bulk (commons, uncommons, non-holo rares) | Set type | what it paid in six months | −0.35 | 0.729 | 22 |
| Every card | Set type | what it paid in six months | +0.26 | 0.734 | 29 |
| Every card | Market regime at launch (90-day change) | what it paid in six months | +0.25 | 0.734 | 27 |
| Every card | Release quarter | how deep it goes | — | 0.734 | 29 |
| Rares | Launch hype (day-0 cost ÷ month-12 cost) | how deep it goes | −0.25 | 0.737 | 15 |
| Special illustration rares | Era, in order | when the bottom lands | −0.52 | 0.738 | 15 |
| Rares | Print window (days to the set two later) | what it paid in six months | +0.25 | 0.741 | 12 |
| Rares | Set type | what it paid in six months | +0.22 | 0.741 | 16 |
| Rares | Release quarter | when the bottom lands | — | 0.741 | 17 |
| Ultra rares (ex, V, VMAX, double rares) | Release quarter | when the bottom lands | — | 0.748 | 27 |
| The typical card | Checklist size | when the bottom lands | +0.19 | 0.748 | 30 |
| Commons and uncommons | Set type | what it paid in six months | −0.24 | 0.748 | 22 |
| Commons and uncommons | Cards at $50+ on day zero | how deep it goes | −0.23 | 0.748 | 23 |
| Hyper and secret rares | Share of day-0 value in the top ten | what it paid in six months | +0.28 | 0.752 | 19 |
| Ultra rares (ex, V, VMAX, double rares) | Days to the next set | how deep it goes | +0.08 | 0.756 | 22 |
| Ultra rares (ex, V, VMAX, double rares) | Days to the next set | what it paid in six months | −0.09 | 0.756 | 22 |
| Ultra rares (ex, V, VMAX, double rares) | Era, in order | what it paid in six months | −0.09 | 0.756 | 27 |
| Top 10 at launch | Launch hype (day-0 cost ÷ month-12 cost) | when the bottom lands | +0.22 | 0.763 | 23 |
| Every card | Print window (days to the set two later) | what it paid in six months | −0.25 | 0.764 | 22 |
| Every card | Launch hype (day-0 cost ÷ month-12 cost) | when the bottom lands | +0.17 | 0.764 | 28 |
| Every card | Market regime at launch (90-day change) | when the bottom lands | −0.17 | 0.764 | 27 |
| Every card | Release quarter | when the bottom lands | — | 0.764 | 29 |
| Every card | Release quarter | what it paid in six months | — | 0.764 | 29 |
| Every card | Checklist size | how deep it goes | +0.19 | 0.764 | 29 |
| Every card | Cards at $50+ on day zero | what it paid in six months | −0.17 | 0.764 | 29 |
| Every card | Share of day-0 value in the top ten | how deep it goes | −0.23 | 0.764 | 29 |
| Bulk (commons, uncommons, non-holo rares) | Days to the next set | when the bottom lands | +0.34 | 0.778 | 18 |
| Bulk (commons, uncommons, non-holo rares) | Days to the next set | how deep it goes | −0.33 | 0.778 | 18 |
| Double rares (ex, V) | Launch hype (day-0 cost ÷ month-12 cost) | how deep it goes | −0.30 | 0.809 | 16 |
| Bulk (commons, uncommons, non-holo rares) | Print window (days to the set two later) | when the bottom lands | +0.29 | 0.818 | 16 |
| Bulk (commons, uncommons, non-holo rares) | Print window (days to the set two later) | how deep it goes | −0.25 | 0.818 | 16 |
| Bulk (commons, uncommons, non-holo rares) | Print window (days to the set two later) | what it paid in six months | +0.27 | 0.818 | 16 |
| Bulk (commons, uncommons, non-holo rares) | Set type | when the bottom lands | −0.22 | 0.818 | 22 |
| Bulk (commons, uncommons, non-holo rares) | Cards at $50+ on day zero | what it paid in six months | +0.21 | 0.818 | 22 |
| Bulk (commons, uncommons, non-holo rares) | Share of day-0 value in the top ten | when the bottom lands | −0.25 | 0.818 | 22 |
| Chase cards | Days to the next set | when the bottom lands | −0.14 | 0.822 | 20 |
| Chase cards | Print window (days to the set two later) | how deep it goes | −0.11 | 0.822 | 19 |
| Chase cards | Print window (days to the set two later) | what it paid in six months | +0.13 | 0.822 | 19 |
| Chase cards | Set type | when the bottom lands | −0.13 | 0.822 | 24 |
| Chase cards | Set type | how deep it goes | +0.13 | 0.822 | 24 |
| Chase cards | Market regime at launch (90-day change) | when the bottom lands | −0.14 | 0.822 | 22 |
| Chase cards | Market regime at launch (90-day change) | how deep it goes | +0.12 | 0.822 | 22 |
| Chase cards | Market regime at launch (90-day change) | what it paid in six months | +0.17 | 0.822 | 22 |
| Chase cards | Release quarter | when the bottom lands | — | 0.822 | 24 |
| Chase cards | Release quarter | how deep it goes | — | 0.822 | 24 |
| Commons and uncommons | Share of day-0 value in the top ten | when the bottom lands | −0.20 | 0.825 | 23 |
| Chase cards | Share of day-0 value in the top ten | when the bottom lands | +0.09 | 0.829 | 24 |
| Commons and uncommons | Print window (days to the set two later) | how deep it goes | −0.19 | 0.831 | 18 |
| Commons and uncommons | Era, in order | what it paid in six months | +0.17 | 0.831 | 22 |
| Commons and uncommons | Market regime at launch (90-day change) | how deep it goes | +0.16 | 0.831 | 23 |
| Commons and uncommons | Checklist size | how deep it goes | −0.17 | 0.831 | 23 |
| Bulk (commons, uncommons, non-holo rares) | Market regime at launch (90-day change) | when the bottom lands | −0.19 | 0.832 | 22 |
| Bulk (commons, uncommons, non-holo rares) | Cards at $50+ on day zero | when the bottom lands | −0.18 | 0.832 | 22 |
| Top 10 today | Checklist size | when the bottom lands | −0.17 | 0.841 | 26 |
| Chase cards | Checklist size | when the bottom lands | −0.08 | 0.841 | 24 |
| Top 10 today | Days to the next set | when the bottom lands | −0.15 | 0.844 | 22 |
| Top 10 today | Market regime at launch (90-day change) | what it paid in six months | −0.16 | 0.844 | 24 |
| Top 10 today | Release quarter | when the bottom lands | — | 0.844 | 26 |
| Chase cards | Launch hype (day-0 cost ÷ month-12 cost) | what it paid in six months | −0.07 | 0.855 | 23 |
| Chase cards | Checklist size | what it paid in six months | −0.07 | 0.855 | 24 |
| Top 10 at launch | Days to the next set | when the bottom lands | −0.17 | 0.859 | 20 |
| Top 10 at launch | Set type | what it paid in six months | +0.15 | 0.859 | 24 |
| Top 10 at launch | Market regime at launch (90-day change) | how deep it goes | −0.15 | 0.859 | 22 |
| Top 10 at launch | Market regime at launch (90-day change) | what it paid in six months | +0.14 | 0.859 | 22 |
| Top 10 at launch | Release quarter | when the bottom lands | — | 0.859 | 24 |
| Top 10 at launch | Checklist size | what it paid in six months | +0.18 | 0.859 | 24 |
| Top 10 at launch | Share of day-0 value in the top ten | how deep it goes | −0.16 | 0.859 | 24 |
| Top 10 at launch | Share of day-0 value in the top ten | what it paid in six months | −0.14 | 0.859 | 24 |
| Commons and uncommons | Launch hype (day-0 cost ÷ month-12 cost) | what it paid in six months | +0.14 | 0.866 | 21 |
| Commons and uncommons | Share of day-0 value in the top ten | how deep it goes | +0.13 | 0.866 | 23 |
| Chase cards | Share of day-0 value in the top ten | what it paid in six months | −0.05 | 0.868 | 24 |
| Top 10 at launch | Set type | how deep it goes | −0.12 | 0.875 | 24 |
| Rares | Days to the next set | when the bottom lands | +0.14 | 0.881 | 14 |
| Rares | Print window (days to the set two later) | how deep it goes | +0.14 | 0.881 | 13 |
| Rares | Market regime at launch (90-day change) | when the bottom lands | −0.13 | 0.881 | 17 |
| Rares | Share of day-0 value in the top ten | how deep it goes | +0.13 | 0.881 | 17 |
| Illustration rares | Era, in order | how deep it goes | −0.33 | 0.883 | 16 |
| Ultra rares (ex, V, VMAX, double rares) | Set type | what it paid in six months | +0.04 | 0.884 | 27 |
| Double rares (ex, V) | Days to the next set | how deep it goes | +0.28 | 0.890 | 14 |
| Top 10 today | Days to the next set | how deep it goes | −0.09 | 0.891 | 22 |
| Top 10 today | Print window (days to the set two later) | when the bottom lands | −0.12 | 0.891 | 21 |
| Top 10 today | Print window (days to the set two later) | what it paid in six months | −0.06 | 0.891 | 21 |
| Top 10 today | Set type | when the bottom lands | +0.07 | 0.891 | 26 |
| Top 10 today | Era, in order | what it paid in six months | +0.06 | 0.891 | 26 |
| Top 10 today | Market regime at launch (90-day change) | when the bottom lands | +0.07 | 0.891 | 24 |
| Top 10 today | Market regime at launch (90-day change) | how deep it goes | −0.09 | 0.891 | 24 |
| Top 10 today | Release quarter | what it paid in six months | — | 0.891 | 26 |
| Top 10 today | Checklist size | what it paid in six months | +0.05 | 0.891 | 26 |
| Hyper and secret rares | Release quarter | when the bottom lands | — | 0.892 | 19 |
| Every card | Checklist size | when the bottom lands | +0.13 | 0.907 | 29 |
| Every card | Print window (days to the set two later) | how deep it goes | +0.10 | 0.912 | 22 |
| Every card | Market regime at launch (90-day change) | how deep it goes | −0.11 | 0.912 | 27 |
| Every card | Checklist size | what it paid in six months | +0.10 | 0.912 | 29 |
| Every card | Share of day-0 value in the top ten | when the bottom lands | −0.09 | 0.912 | 29 |
| Every card | Share of day-0 value in the top ten | what it paid in six months | −0.09 | 0.912 | 29 |
| Every card | Days to the next set | when the bottom lands | +0.07 | 0.919 | 24 |
| Every card | Set type | when the bottom lands | −0.07 | 0.919 | 29 |
| Every card | Era, in order | what it paid in six months | −0.06 | 0.919 | 29 |
| Ultra rares (ex, V, VMAX, double rares) | Cards at $50+ on day zero | how deep it goes | +0.02 | 0.929 | 27 |
| Top 10 at launch | Print window (days to the set two later) | how deep it goes | +0.10 | 0.931 | 19 |
| Top 10 today | Share of day-0 value in the top ten | what it paid in six months | −0.03 | 0.933 | 26 |
| Commons and uncommons | Days to the next set | what it paid in six months | −0.11 | 0.933 | 19 |
| Commons and uncommons | Release quarter | what it paid in six months | — | 0.933 | 22 |
| Every card | Days to the next set | what it paid in six months | −0.03 | 0.941 | 24 |
| Every card | Print window (days to the set two later) | when the bottom lands | −0.04 | 0.941 | 22 |
| Every card | Launch hype (day-0 cost ÷ month-12 cost) | what it paid in six months | −0.04 | 0.941 | 28 |
| Double rares (ex, V) | Days to the next set | when the bottom lands | +0.21 | 0.942 | 14 |
| Double rares (ex, V) | Days to the next set | what it paid in six months | −0.04 | 0.942 | 14 |
| Double rares (ex, V) | Print window (days to the set two later) | when the bottom lands | +0.17 | 0.942 | 13 |
| Double rares (ex, V) | Print window (days to the set two later) | how deep it goes | +0.12 | 0.942 | 13 |
| Double rares (ex, V) | Print window (days to the set two later) | what it paid in six months | −0.10 | 0.942 | 13 |
| Double rares (ex, V) | Set type | when the bottom lands | −0.13 | 0.942 | 17 |
| Double rares (ex, V) | Set type | how deep it goes | −0.05 | 0.942 | 17 |
| Double rares (ex, V) | Set type | what it paid in six months | +0.24 | 0.942 | 17 |
| Double rares (ex, V) | Launch hype (day-0 cost ÷ month-12 cost) | when the bottom lands | −0.10 | 0.942 | 16 |
| Double rares (ex, V) | Launch hype (day-0 cost ÷ month-12 cost) | what it paid in six months | −0.08 | 0.942 | 16 |
| Double rares (ex, V) | Market regime at launch (90-day change) | how deep it goes | +0.13 | 0.942 | 17 |
| Double rares (ex, V) | Market regime at launch (90-day change) | what it paid in six months | −0.04 | 0.942 | 17 |
| Double rares (ex, V) | Release quarter | when the bottom lands | — | 0.942 | 17 |
| Double rares (ex, V) | Release quarter | how deep it goes | — | 0.942 | 17 |
| Double rares (ex, V) | Release quarter | what it paid in six months | — | 0.942 | 17 |
| Double rares (ex, V) | Checklist size | how deep it goes | +0.07 | 0.942 | 17 |
| Double rares (ex, V) | Cards at $50+ on day zero | how deep it goes | +0.05 | 0.942 | 17 |
| Double rares (ex, V) | Share of day-0 value in the top ten | how deep it goes | +0.02 | 0.942 | 17 |
| Double rares (ex, V) | Share of day-0 value in the top ten | what it paid in six months | +0.03 | 0.942 | 17 |
| Commons and uncommons | Checklist size | what it paid in six months | −0.09 | 0.943 | 22 |
| Rares | Days to the next set | how deep it goes | −0.08 | 0.948 | 14 |
| Rares | Days to the next set | what it paid in six months | −0.08 | 0.948 | 13 |
| Rares | Print window (days to the set two later) | when the bottom lands | +0.05 | 0.948 | 13 |
| Rares | Checklist size | how deep it goes | −0.06 | 0.948 | 17 |
| Rares | Cards at $50+ on day zero | when the bottom lands | −0.04 | 0.948 | 17 |
| Rares | Cards at $50+ on day zero | how deep it goes | −0.04 | 0.948 | 17 |
| Commons and uncommons | Cards at $50+ on day zero | what it paid in six months | +0.08 | 0.950 | 22 |
| Illustration rares | Print window (days to the set two later) | what it paid in six months | −0.28 | 0.956 | 12 |
| Illustration rares | Launch hype (day-0 cost ÷ month-12 cost) | when the bottom lands | −0.26 | 0.956 | 15 |
| Illustration rares | Market regime at launch (90-day change) | what it paid in six months | −0.26 | 0.956 | 16 |
| Hyper and secret rares | Release quarter | how deep it goes | — | 0.957 | 19 |
| Hyper and secret rares | Checklist size | when the bottom lands | +0.20 | 0.957 | 19 |
| Commons and uncommons | Set type | how deep it goes | +0.04 | 0.961 | 23 |
| Commons and uncommons | Launch hype (day-0 cost ÷ month-12 cost) | when the bottom lands | −0.03 | 0.961 | 21 |
| Commons and uncommons | Launch hype (day-0 cost ÷ month-12 cost) | how deep it goes | −0.04 | 0.961 | 21 |
| Commons and uncommons | Market regime at launch (90-day change) | what it paid in six months | −0.05 | 0.961 | 22 |
| Commons and uncommons | Release quarter | when the bottom lands | — | 0.961 | 23 |
| Hyper and secret rares | Days to the next set | how deep it goes | −0.14 | 0.963 | 18 |
| Hyper and secret rares | Print window (days to the set two later) | when the bottom lands | +0.14 | 0.963 | 16 |
| Hyper and secret rares | Print window (days to the set two later) | how deep it goes | −0.12 | 0.963 | 16 |
| Hyper and secret rares | Print window (days to the set two later) | what it paid in six months | +0.17 | 0.963 | 16 |
| Hyper and secret rares | Set type | what it paid in six months | +0.13 | 0.963 | 19 |
| Hyper and secret rares | Release quarter | what it paid in six months | — | 0.963 | 19 |
| Hyper and secret rares | Cards at $50+ on day zero | what it paid in six months | +0.17 | 0.963 | 19 |
| Top 10 at launch | Days to the next set | how deep it goes | +0.04 | 0.963 | 20 |
| Top 10 at launch | Days to the next set | what it paid in six months | +0.03 | 0.963 | 20 |
| Top 10 at launch | Print window (days to the set two later) | when the bottom lands | −0.06 | 0.963 | 19 |
| Top 10 at launch | Set type | when the bottom lands | −0.02 | 0.963 | 24 |
| Top 10 at launch | Era, in order | what it paid in six months | −0.02 | 0.963 | 24 |
| Top 10 at launch | Market regime at launch (90-day change) | when the bottom lands | +0.06 | 0.963 | 22 |
| Top 10 at launch | Checklist size | when the bottom lands | −0.05 | 0.963 | 24 |
| Top 10 at launch | Share of day-0 value in the top ten | when the bottom lands | −0.01 | 0.963 | 24 |
| Top 10 today | Print window (days to the set two later) | how deep it goes | +0.01 | 0.966 | 21 |
| Top 10 today | Set type | how deep it goes | −0.02 | 0.966 | 26 |
| Hyper and secret rares | Share of day-0 value in the top ten | when the bottom lands | −0.11 | 0.972 | 19 |
| Hyper and secret rares | Days to the next set | what it paid in six months | −0.01 | 0.974 | 18 |
| Hyper and secret rares | Set type | how deep it goes | +0.04 | 0.974 | 19 |
| Hyper and secret rares | Era, in order | how deep it goes | −0.02 | 0.974 | 19 |
| Hyper and secret rares | Era, in order | what it paid in six months | +0.02 | 0.974 | 19 |
| Hyper and secret rares | Launch hype (day-0 cost ÷ month-12 cost) | when the bottom lands | +0.04 | 0.974 | 19 |
| Hyper and secret rares | Launch hype (day-0 cost ÷ month-12 cost) | what it paid in six months | −0.04 | 0.974 | 19 |
| Hyper and secret rares | Market regime at launch (90-day change) | when the bottom lands | +0.01 | 0.974 | 19 |
| Hyper and secret rares | Checklist size | what it paid in six months | −0.02 | 0.974 | 19 |
| Hyper and secret rares | Cards at $50+ on day zero | how deep it goes | −0.02 | 0.974 | 19 |
| Chase cards | Days to the next set | how deep it goes | +0.01 | 0.977 | 20 |
| Chase cards | Cards at $50+ on day zero | what it paid in six months | +0.01 | 0.977 | 24 |
| Every card | Days to the next set | how deep it goes | −0.01 | 0.978 | 24 |
| Every card | Set type | how deep it goes | +0.01 | 0.978 | 29 |
| The typical card | Days to the next set | when the bottom lands | +0.05 | 0.990 | 25 |
| The typical card | Days to the next set | how deep it goes | −0.02 | 0.990 | 25 |
| The typical card | Days to the next set | what it paid in six months | −0.16 | 0.990 | 24 |
| The typical card | Print window (days to the set two later) | when the bottom lands | −0.00 | 0.990 | 23 |
| The typical card | Print window (days to the set two later) | how deep it goes | +0.08 | 0.990 | 23 |
| The typical card | Print window (days to the set two later) | what it paid in six months | −0.10 | 0.990 | 22 |
| The typical card | Set type | when the bottom lands | −0.05 | 0.990 | 30 |
| The typical card | Set type | how deep it goes | −0.09 | 0.990 | 30 |
| The typical card | Set type | what it paid in six months | +0.13 | 0.990 | 29 |
| The typical card | Launch hype (day-0 cost ÷ month-12 cost) | when the bottom lands | −0.12 | 0.990 | 28 |
| The typical card | Launch hype (day-0 cost ÷ month-12 cost) | how deep it goes | −0.09 | 0.990 | 28 |
| The typical card | Market regime at launch (90-day change) | how deep it goes | +0.07 | 0.990 | 28 |
| The typical card | Release quarter | when the bottom lands | — | 0.990 | 30 |
| The typical card | Release quarter | how deep it goes | — | 0.990 | 30 |
| The typical card | Release quarter | what it paid in six months | — | 0.990 | 29 |
| The typical card | Checklist size | how deep it goes | −0.00 | 0.990 | 30 |
| The typical card | Cards at $50+ on day zero | how deep it goes | +0.05 | 0.990 | 30 |
| The typical card | Share of day-0 value in the top ten | how deep it goes | +0.06 | 0.990 | 30 |
| Rares | Cards at $50+ on day zero | what it paid in six months | −0.02 | 0.991 | 16 |
| Commons and uncommons | Release quarter | how deep it goes | — | 0.996 | 23 |
| Commons and uncommons | Cards at $50+ on day zero | when the bottom lands | −0.00 | 0.996 | 23 |
| Rares | Launch hype (day-0 cost ÷ month-12 cost) | when the bottom lands | +0.00 | 1.000 | 15 |
| Illustration rares | Days to the next set | how deep it goes | +0.13 | 1.000 | 13 |
| Illustration rares | Days to the next set | what it paid in six months | +0.00 | 1.000 | 13 |
| Illustration rares | Print window (days to the set two later) | when the bottom lands | +0.02 | 1.000 | 12 |
| Illustration rares | Print window (days to the set two later) | how deep it goes | −0.03 | 1.000 | 12 |
| Illustration rares | Set type | how deep it goes | +0.01 | 1.000 | 16 |
| Illustration rares | Era, in order | when the bottom lands | −0.08 | 1.000 | 16 |
| Illustration rares | Era, in order | what it paid in six months | −0.16 | 1.000 | 16 |
| Illustration rares | Launch hype (day-0 cost ÷ month-12 cost) | how deep it goes | +0.00 | 1.000 | 15 |
| Illustration rares | Launch hype (day-0 cost ÷ month-12 cost) | what it paid in six months | −0.12 | 1.000 | 15 |
| Illustration rares | Market regime at launch (90-day change) | when the bottom lands | −0.16 | 1.000 | 16 |
| Illustration rares | Release quarter | how deep it goes | — | 1.000 | 16 |
| Illustration rares | Release quarter | what it paid in six months | — | 1.000 | 16 |
| Illustration rares | Checklist size | how deep it goes | −0.07 | 1.000 | 16 |
| Illustration rares | Checklist size | what it paid in six months | +0.13 | 1.000 | 16 |
| Illustration rares | Cards at $50+ on day zero | when the bottom lands | −0.03 | 1.000 | 16 |
| Illustration rares | Cards at $50+ on day zero | what it paid in six months | +0.12 | 1.000 | 16 |
| Illustration rares | Share of day-0 value in the top ten | when the bottom lands | −0.12 | 1.000 | 16 |
| Illustration rares | Share of day-0 value in the top ten | what it paid in six months | −0.03 | 1.000 | 16 |
| Special illustration rares | Days to the next set | when the bottom lands | −0.07 | 1.000 | 13 |
| Special illustration rares | Days to the next set | how deep it goes | +0.09 | 1.000 | 13 |
| Special illustration rares | Days to the next set | what it paid in six months | −0.14 | 1.000 | 13 |
| Special illustration rares | Print window (days to the set two later) | when the bottom lands | +0.12 | 1.000 | 13 |
| Special illustration rares | Print window (days to the set two later) | how deep it goes | −0.18 | 1.000 | 13 |
| Special illustration rares | Print window (days to the set two later) | what it paid in six months | +0.26 | 1.000 | 13 |
| Special illustration rares | Set type | when the bottom lands | +0.03 | 1.000 | 15 |
| Special illustration rares | Set type | how deep it goes | +0.07 | 1.000 | 15 |
| Special illustration rares | Set type | what it paid in six months | +0.26 | 1.000 | 15 |
| Special illustration rares | Era, in order | how deep it goes | +0.04 | 1.000 | 15 |
| Special illustration rares | Era, in order | what it paid in six months | +0.00 | 1.000 | 15 |
| Special illustration rares | Launch hype (day-0 cost ÷ month-12 cost) | when the bottom lands | +0.23 | 1.000 | 14 |
| Special illustration rares | Launch hype (day-0 cost ÷ month-12 cost) | what it paid in six months | −0.01 | 1.000 | 14 |
| Special illustration rares | Market regime at launch (90-day change) | when the bottom lands | −0.01 | 1.000 | 15 |
| Special illustration rares | Market regime at launch (90-day change) | how deep it goes | −0.09 | 1.000 | 15 |
| Special illustration rares | Market regime at launch (90-day change) | what it paid in six months | +0.44 | 1.000 | 15 |
| Special illustration rares | Release quarter | when the bottom lands | — | 1.000 | 15 |
| Special illustration rares | Release quarter | how deep it goes | — | 1.000 | 15 |
| Special illustration rares | Release quarter | what it paid in six months | — | 1.000 | 15 |
| Special illustration rares | Checklist size | when the bottom lands | +0.07 | 1.000 | 15 |
| Special illustration rares | Checklist size | how deep it goes | +0.06 | 1.000 | 15 |
| Special illustration rares | Checklist size | what it paid in six months | −0.22 | 1.000 | 15 |
| Special illustration rares | Cards at $50+ on day zero | when the bottom lands | −0.08 | 1.000 | 15 |
| Special illustration rares | Cards at $50+ on day zero | how deep it goes | −0.03 | 1.000 | 15 |
| Special illustration rares | Cards at $50+ on day zero | what it paid in six months | −0.07 | 1.000 | 15 |
| Special illustration rares | Share of day-0 value in the top ten | when the bottom lands | −0.21 | 1.000 | 15 |
| Special illustration rares | Share of day-0 value in the top ten | how deep it goes | −0.20 | 1.000 | 15 |
| Special illustration rares | Share of day-0 value in the top ten | what it paid in six months | +0.10 | 1.000 | 15 |
| Bulk (commons, uncommons, non-holo rares) | Days to the next set | what it paid in six months | −0.04 | 1.000 | 18 |
| Bulk (commons, uncommons, non-holo rares) | Set type | how deep it goes | +0.01 | 1.000 | 22 |
| Bulk (commons, uncommons, non-holo rares) | Era, in order | what it paid in six months | +0.09 | 1.000 | 22 |
| Bulk (commons, uncommons, non-holo rares) | Launch hype (day-0 cost ÷ month-12 cost) | when the bottom lands | −0.09 | 1.000 | 21 |
| Bulk (commons, uncommons, non-holo rares) | Launch hype (day-0 cost ÷ month-12 cost) | how deep it goes | −0.01 | 1.000 | 21 |
| Bulk (commons, uncommons, non-holo rares) | Launch hype (day-0 cost ÷ month-12 cost) | what it paid in six months | +0.09 | 1.000 | 21 |
| Bulk (commons, uncommons, non-holo rares) | Market regime at launch (90-day change) | how deep it goes | +0.06 | 1.000 | 22 |
| Bulk (commons, uncommons, non-holo rares) | Market regime at launch (90-day change) | what it paid in six months | −0.06 | 1.000 | 22 |
| Bulk (commons, uncommons, non-holo rares) | Release quarter | when the bottom lands | — | 1.000 | 22 |
| Bulk (commons, uncommons, non-holo rares) | Release quarter | how deep it goes | — | 1.000 | 22 |
| Bulk (commons, uncommons, non-holo rares) | Release quarter | what it paid in six months | — | 1.000 | 22 |
| Bulk (commons, uncommons, non-holo rares) | Checklist size | how deep it goes | −0.08 | 1.000 | 22 |
| Bulk (commons, uncommons, non-holo rares) | Checklist size | what it paid in six months | +0.02 | 1.000 | 22 |
| Bulk (commons, uncommons, non-holo rares) | Cards at $50+ on day zero | how deep it goes | −0.03 | 1.000 | 22 |
| Bulk (commons, uncommons, non-holo rares) | Share of day-0 value in the top ten | how deep it goes | +0.12 | 1.000 | 22 |
| Holo rares | Days to the next set | when the bottom lands | — | — | 2 |
| Holo rares | Days to the next set | how deep it goes | — | — | 2 |
| Holo rares | Days to the next set | what it paid in six months | — | — | 2 |
| Holo rares | Print window (days to the set two later) | when the bottom lands | — | — | 2 |
| Holo rares | Print window (days to the set two later) | how deep it goes | — | — | 2 |
| Holo rares | Print window (days to the set two later) | what it paid in six months | — | — | 2 |
| Holo rares | Set type | when the bottom lands | — | — | 2 |
| Holo rares | Set type | how deep it goes | — | — | 2 |
| Holo rares | Set type | what it paid in six months | — | — | 2 |
| Holo rares | Era, in order | when the bottom lands | — | — | 2 |
| Holo rares | Era, in order | how deep it goes | — | — | 2 |
| Holo rares | Era, in order | what it paid in six months | — | — | 2 |
| Holo rares | Launch hype (day-0 cost ÷ month-12 cost) | when the bottom lands | — | — | 2 |
| Holo rares | Launch hype (day-0 cost ÷ month-12 cost) | how deep it goes | — | — | 2 |
| Holo rares | Launch hype (day-0 cost ÷ month-12 cost) | what it paid in six months | — | — | 2 |
| Holo rares | Market regime at launch (90-day change) | when the bottom lands | — | — | 1 |
| Holo rares | Market regime at launch (90-day change) | how deep it goes | — | — | 1 |
| Holo rares | Market regime at launch (90-day change) | what it paid in six months | — | — | 1 |
| Holo rares | Release quarter | when the bottom lands | — | — | 2 |
| Holo rares | Release quarter | how deep it goes | — | — | 2 |
| Holo rares | Release quarter | what it paid in six months | — | — | 2 |
| Holo rares | Checklist size | when the bottom lands | — | — | 2 |
| Holo rares | Checklist size | how deep it goes | — | — | 2 |
| Holo rares | Checklist size | what it paid in six months | — | — | 2 |
| Holo rares | Cards at $50+ on day zero | when the bottom lands | — | — | 2 |
| Holo rares | Cards at $50+ on day zero | how deep it goes | — | — | 2 |
| Holo rares | Cards at $50+ on day zero | what it paid in six months | — | — | 2 |
| Holo rares | Share of day-0 value in the top ten | when the bottom lands | — | — | 2 |
| Holo rares | Share of day-0 value in the top ten | how deep it goes | — | — | 2 |
| Holo rares | Share of day-0 value in the top ten | what it paid in six months | — | — | 2 |
| Unclassified | Days to the next set | when the bottom lands | — | — | 0 |
| Unclassified | Days to the next set | how deep it goes | — | — | 0 |
| Unclassified | Days to the next set | what it paid in six months | — | — | 0 |
| Unclassified | Print window (days to the set two later) | when the bottom lands | — | — | 0 |
| Unclassified | Print window (days to the set two later) | how deep it goes | — | — | 0 |
| Unclassified | Print window (days to the set two later) | what it paid in six months | — | — | 0 |
| Unclassified | Set type | when the bottom lands | — | — | 0 |
| Unclassified | Set type | how deep it goes | — | — | 0 |
| Unclassified | Set type | what it paid in six months | — | — | 0 |
| Unclassified | Era, in order | when the bottom lands | — | — | 0 |
| Unclassified | Era, in order | how deep it goes | — | — | 0 |
| Unclassified | Era, in order | what it paid in six months | — | — | 0 |
| Unclassified | Launch hype (day-0 cost ÷ month-12 cost) | when the bottom lands | — | — | 0 |
| Unclassified | Launch hype (day-0 cost ÷ month-12 cost) | how deep it goes | — | — | 0 |
| Unclassified | Launch hype (day-0 cost ÷ month-12 cost) | what it paid in six months | — | — | 0 |
| Unclassified | Market regime at launch (90-day change) | when the bottom lands | — | — | 0 |
| Unclassified | Market regime at launch (90-day change) | how deep it goes | — | — | 0 |
| Unclassified | Market regime at launch (90-day change) | what it paid in six months | — | — | 0 |
| Unclassified | Release quarter | when the bottom lands | — | — | 0 |
| Unclassified | Release quarter | how deep it goes | — | — | 0 |
| Unclassified | Release quarter | what it paid in six months | — | — | 0 |
| Unclassified | Checklist size | when the bottom lands | — | — | 0 |
| Unclassified | Checklist size | how deep it goes | — | — | 0 |
| Unclassified | Checklist size | what it paid in six months | — | — | 0 |
| Unclassified | Cards at $50+ on day zero | when the bottom lands | — | — | 0 |
| Unclassified | Cards at $50+ on day zero | how deep it goes | — | — | 0 |
| Unclassified | Cards at $50+ on day zero | what it paid in six months | — | — | 0 |
| Unclassified | Share of day-0 value in the top ten | when the bottom lands | — | — | 0 |
| Unclassified | Share of day-0 value in the top ten | how deep it goes | — | — | 0 |
| Unclassified | Share of day-0 value in the top ten | what it paid in six months | — | — | 0 |
The daily price archive begins in 2024, so a cohort of sets whose LAUNCH is on file can only be made of recent ones: all 34 of them come from 3 era(s) inside the modern segment. What the rest of the market did over the same span is measured beside it, on this platform's own calendar composites. 34 of 34 eligible sets are in the Modern segment, and here is what every segment of the calendar market did since 2023-01-01.
TCGplayer market price (market guide), equal weight across the set's variants. Not a delivered-ask floor and not condition-specific.
Coverage: 208 sets in the catalogue, 126 with a usable price line, 28 from day zero, 2 withheld for too few priced cards. The cohort is the 21 observed through the whole 12-month horizon; every share is a count over them.
A confirmed bottom is a low that then held 90 days with no new low and bounced at least 10% — measured after the fact, never a forecast. Beyond about thirty months an age bin is one era, not an age. Every caveat, coverage by era and every source: the full method below.
Confirmed bottoms in this cohort fell months 1–7 after release, median month 6 (11 of 21 sets). The buy zone is months 6–7: half the bottoms are in by its first day, nine in ten by its last. Weak evidence.
Historically, no. Before month 6 most sets in this cohort were still falling, and a launch-day buyer would have held a loss for weeks. The study's call is to wait for the buy zone, months 6–7.
A low that turned out to be the low: it held 90 days with no new low and then rose at least 10%. The test uses only data from after the low, so it describes bottoms, never predicts them.
Median gain of +31.1% 6 months after a confirmed bottom, over the 8 sets whose record reaches that far. That is a median, not a floor: some sets bounced less, and 8 is a small sample.
Where a set is in its price life, read from its own line: markdown (still falling), accumulation (flat at the low), markup (rising off it), distribution (stalled near the top). Every threshold is in the glossary above.
Unknown. Every day-zero set here is Mega Evolution, Scarlet & Violet, Sword & Shield — 28 of 126 lines. 7 older eras have no set priced from release, so this page has no vintage bottom to show.
It draws one of every card in the set, held from day 0, against its launch-day price. Equal weight lets bulk outvote the chase cards and reads far worse; both baskets are one click apart on the Basket control.
TCGplayer market price (market guide), equal weight across the set's variants. Not a delivered-ask floor and not condition-specific.
Every line is drawn against the set’s own age — day zero is its release — as percent from its launch level. The price history begins 2020-12-01, the earliest day evidence was found; this publication runs to 2026-09-27, and every reading is bounded by that span.
The default line is EQUAL weight — every card in the set, one vote each, bulk included — against its launch-day price. TOP-10 (the set’s ten most valuable near-mint raw cards, rebalanced monthly) and MONTH-3 are one click away in the controls above.
EQUAL weight is why a set can read down for years while its chase cards run — bulk collapses off launch pricing. TOP10 is the chase basket and not a buy-and-hold; the two drift apart. Base moves age zero by subtraction, so no low and no rebound moves with it.
208 sets in the catalogue, 129 with a release date, 126 with a usable price line, 28 from their release day; 0 thin age bins are drawn as gaps. The headline cohort is the 21 sets observed through the whole 12-month horizon, and every share is a count over them. 2 sets are kept off the chart: too few priced cards for a line about the set. 87 sets predate the earliest rotation on file and carry no rotation age.
No. Every line is a set's ungraded price, so it says nothing about a graded copy's premium, which moves on grade and population rather than on set age.
TCGplayer market price (market guide), equal weight across the set's variants. Not a delivered-ask floor and not condition-specific. History begins 2020-12-01; evidence in this publication runs to 2026-09-27.
Weekly. The cohorts behind this page move over months, not hours, so it is rebuilt once a week rather than every night — the owner’s call, and an honest one: a nightly rebuild of a monthly phenomenon publishes noise. Every number here, these answers included, is read from the build below and replaced by the next one. This publication was built on 2026-09-27 with price evidence through 2026-09-27; every number on this page, these answers included, is read from that build and replaced by the next one.
A flag on the chart says something happened at an age, never anything about price. A hatched flag is somebody else’s rule of thumb, not something measured here.
Research classification generated from observable market data with stated confidence and assumptions. Not personalized financial advice.