Pikachu ex 238/191 leads Surging Sparks at $251.49 on Cardboard Alpha's October 15, 2026 evaluated prices, and the three Special Illustration Rares above $100 hold 47.0 percent of a $1,106.66 one-of-each run.
Pikachu ex 238/191, the Special Illustration Rare, is the most valuable card in Surging Sparks. Cardboard Alpha's evaluated price for a raw Near Mint copy was $251.49 on October 15, 2026, ahead of Latias ex 239/191 at $164.80 and Milotic ex 237/191 at $103.36.
Those three cards hold 47.0 percent of the $1,106.66 that one raw Near Mint copy of each of the 252 cards totals at those prices, counting each in its standard printing. The 191 numbered cards come to $62.77, 5.7 percent of the set, and the 61 secret-number cards carry the other 94.3 percent.
Cardboard Alpha's prices are evaluated prices: one daily number per card, built from recorded sales, live asking prices and the card's prior evaluation, or from a quoted guide value when nothing fresher exists. Pikachu ex 238's figure rests on asking prices and its prior evaluation because no clean sale printed that day, and TCGplayer's own market price was $274.44.
Special Illustration Rare. Evaluated price, raw NM, $251.49 on October 15, 2026.
How Surging Sparks is built
The Pokémon Company International released Surging Sparks on November 8, 2024. Its launch announcement features Stellar Tera Pokémon ex, including Pikachu ex with its Topaz Bolt attack, and Alolan Exeggutor ex alongside Dragon-type Pokémon, plus cards themed on the Terarium from The Indigo Disk, a Pokémon Scarlet and Violet DLC.
Cardboard Alpha's catalog lists 252 cards, 191 numbered and 61 secret-number cards, and TCGplayer counts the same 61 Secret Rares. The Pokémon Company International's August 22, 2024 announcement named eight ACE SPEC cards, 23 Illustration Rares, 11 Special Illustration Rares and six Hyper Rares, matching the catalog, and TCGplayer adds 18 Double Rares and 21 Ultra Rares.
At launch the set was sold in booster packs, Elite Trainer Boxes and special collections. The official expansion page lists an Elite Trainer Box, a Pokémon Center Elite Trainer Box, a Build & Battle Box, a Booster Bundle, a Booster Display and a Sleeved Booster.
TCGplayer's Authentication Center opened more than 8,000 packs ahead of release, and the tier table below sets its odds beside the prices.
The top 15 cards, priced
Every figure is Cardboard Alpha's evaluated price for a raw Near Mint copy of each card's standard printing on October 15, 2026.
Nine of the 15 are Special Illustration Rares and four are Illustration Rares. Ten of the 15 prices include a same-day sale signal. Four, Pikachu ex 238's among them, are anchored to asking prices and a prior evaluation because no clean sale printed that day, and Mesprit's is the midpoint of a TCGplayer sold range.
TCGplayer's market price for the top three on October 15 was $274.44, $178.56 and $103.68, so the evaluated figures sit 8.4, 7.7 and 0.3 percent below it.
The rarity-symbols guide put Pikachu ex 238 at $281.26 and the 252-card total at $1,213.26 on September 29. By October 15 the card's evaluated price was 10.6 percent lower and the total 8.8 percent lower, with 133 cards down, 105 up and 14 unchanged.
The Special Illustration Rare chase
Pikachu ex 238/191
TCGplayer puts any one Special Illustration Rare at about 0.10 percent per pack, plus or minus 0.07 points, or 1 in 960, and says Pikachu ex is about as hard to pull as Twilight Masquerade's Special Illustration Rare Greninja ex. That margin of error is large against the estimate.
No clean sale printed on October 15. On the two most recent earlier days that had one, October 12 and 13, Cardboard Alpha's evaluated price was $260.07 and $255.61. Pikachu ex's four printings, from a $5.18 Double Rare up, come to $349.52 on October 15, 31.6 percent of the set.
Latias ex and Milotic ex
Latias ex 239/191 and Milotic ex 237/191 price at 65.5 and 41.1 percent of the leader. The official expansion page cites Feebas and Milotic as art that pairs across cards. The Illustration Rare Feebas, 198/191, was $7.65, and Milotic ex costs 13.5 times as much.
Special Illustration Rare. Evaluated price, raw NM, $103.36 on October 15, 2026.
One Pokémon, three rarities
Seven Pokémon ex appear as a Double Rare, an Ultra Rare and a Special Illustration Rare, which isolates what the print does to the price.
Pokémon
Double Rare
Ultra Rare
Special Illustration Rare
Multiple of Double Rare
Pikachu ex
$5.18
$25.39
$251.49
48.6x
Latias ex
$5.58
$7.55
$164.80
29.5x
Milotic ex
$0.56
$3.27
$103.36
184.6x
Durant ex
$0.59
$0.89
$34.82
59.0x
Hydreigon ex
$0.65
$4.94
$32.62
50.2x
Alolan Exeggutor ex
$0.70
$1.81
$24.71
35.3x
Archaludon ex
$0.51
$0.95
$12.11
23.7x
Cardboard Alpha evaluated prices, raw Near Mint, October 15, 2026.
The Special Illustration Rare costs 23.7 times the Double Rare for Archaludon ex and 184.6 times for Milotic ex. TCGplayer assumes each Special Illustration Rare is equally likely, so both turn up about once in 960 packs, yet Milotic ex costs 8.5 times as much, $103.36 against $12.11.
Pikachu ex's Ultra Rare, 219/191, is 3.4 times the next Ultra Rare, Latias ex 220/191 at $7.55. Pikachu ex and Alolan Exeggutor ex also have a Hyper Rare, at $67.46 and $10.85.
Ultra Rare. Evaluated price, raw NM, $25.39 on October 15, 2026.
Where the set's value concentrates
Ranked by October 15 price, the top card holds 22.7 percent of the $1,106.66, the top three 47.0 percent, the top five 56.2 percent, the top ten 68.2 percent and the top twenty 79.6 percent.
Share of Surging Sparks' one-of-each cost held by its top cards
Top card (Pikachu ex 238)22.7%
Top 3 cards47%
Top 5 cards56.2%
Top 10 cards68.2%
Top 20 cards79.6%
Cardboard Alpha evaluated prices, raw Near Mint, October 15, 2026. One standard printing per card, $1,106.66 in all.
Tier
Cards
Combined
Share
Median
One card's odds
Special Illustration Rare
11
$679.92
61.4%
$24.71
1 in 960
Illustration Rare
23
$185.60
16.8%
$7.08
1 in 300
Hyper Rare
6
$107.03
9.7%
$10.42
1 in 1,127
Ultra Rare
21
$71.34
6.4%
$1.69
1 in 312
Common, Uncommon, Rare
165
$28.96
2.6%
$0.15
Not published
Double Rare
18
$22.94
2.1%
$0.63
1 in 106
ACE SPEC Rare
8
$10.87
1.0%
$0.62
1 in 159
All cards
252
$1,106.66
100%
$0.21
Cardboard Alpha evaluated prices, raw Near Mint, October 15, 2026, one standard printing per card; even-count medians are the midpoint of the two middle cards, rounded half up. Odds: TCGplayer, more than 8,000 packs opened, for one specific card, assuming equal odds within a tier.
Seven Pokémon ex account for $623.91 of the Special Illustration Rare tier's $679.92, and four Trainer cards for $56.01.
Of the 252 cards, 190 price under $1.00 and together cost $44.60, 4.0 percent of the set, while only 17 reach $10.00. The Double Rare and ACE SPEC Rare medians sit below the rarity-symbols guide's September 29 figures mainly because 15 of the 18 Double Rare prices and six of the eight ACE SPEC Rare prices rest on a quoted guide value on October 15, not on same-day sales.
Across all 252 prices, 44 include a same-day sale signal and hold 57.0 percent of the value, 48 are midpoints of a TCGplayer sold range, and 23 are anchored to asks and a prior evaluation, 37.6 percent of the value. The other 137 rest on a quoted guide value rather than a recorded sale: $42.04 in all, none above $1.81.
Illustration Rares and Hyper Rares
The 23 Illustration Rares total $185.60, with a median of $7.08, and none costs less than $3.02. Latios 203/191 at $27.98 outprices six of the 11 Special Illustration Rares, and Ceruledge 197/191 at $20.21 outprices four.
Illustration Rare. Evaluated price, raw NM, $27.98 on October 15, 2026, above six Special Illustration Rares.
Hyper Rare is the hardest tier to pull, about 1 in 1,127 packs for one card, yet its median of $10.42 sits below the Special Illustration Rare median of $24.71. Pikachu ex 247/191 at $67.46 is 63.0 percent of the tier, and five of the six Hyper Rares cost less than the cheapest Special Illustration Rare Pokémon ex, Archaludon ex at $12.11.
Hyper Rare. Evaluated price, raw NM, $67.46 on October 15, 2026.
Reverse holos and excluded copies
Each of the 165 Common, Uncommon and Rare cards has a reverse holo. Together they cost $42.68, a median of $0.25, and only two reach $1.00, led by Meddling Memo 181/191 at $1.20. Adding them to the 252 standard printings makes $1,149.34.
The 22 stamped copies, two of them jumbo, and four cosmos holo copies are excluded and total $118.81. The dearest is a Pikachu ex 057/191 carrying the catalog's Player Rewards Program stamp at $27.91, 5.4 times the plain print's $5.18.
What this guide does not price
Graded copies: Every figure is a raw Near Mint evaluated price, so no PSA, CGC or Beckett price or population count appears.
Pikachu ex 238/191, the Special Illustration Rare. Cardboard Alpha's evaluated price for a raw Near Mint copy was $251.49 on October 15, 2026, ahead of Latias ex 239/191 at $164.80 and Milotic ex 237/191 at $103.36. The three hold 47.0 percent of the set's one-of-each cost.
How much does a complete Surging Sparks set cost?
One raw Near Mint copy of each of the 252 cards in its standard printing came to $1,106.66 on Cardboard Alpha's evaluated prices for October 15, 2026. Adding the 165 reverse holos, at $42.68 combined, brings it to $1,149.34. Stamped, cosmos holo and jumbo copies are not included in either figure.
How hard is it to pull the Pikachu ex Special Illustration Rare?
TCGplayer's Authentication Center opened more than 8,000 Surging Sparks packs and puts any one Special Illustration Rare, Pikachu ex included, at about 0.10 percent per pack, plus or minus 0.07 points, roughly 1 in 960. That assumes every Special Illustration Rare is equally likely, and the margin of error is large against the estimate. All 11 together turn up in about 1 in 87 packs.
Are Surging Sparks Hyper Rares worth more than Special Illustration Rares?
Not as a tier. On October 15, 2026 the median Hyper Rare was $10.42 against $24.71 for the median Special Illustration Rare, although TCGplayer puts one specific Hyper Rare at about 1 in 1,127 packs against 1 in 960. Pikachu ex 247/191, at $67.46, is the only Hyper Rare above $11.
Which Surging Sparks Illustration Rare is worth the most?
Latios 203/191. Its evaluated raw Near Mint price of $27.98 on October 15, 2026 is higher than six of the 11 Special Illustration Rares. Ceruledge 197/191 is next at $20.21, and the 23 Illustration Rares have a median of $7.08.
How many cards are in Surging Sparks?
Cardboard Alpha's catalog lists 252: 191 numbered cards plus 61 secret-number cards, and TCGplayer counts the same 61 Secret Rares. The Common, Uncommon and Rare cards, 165 in all, also have a reverse holo. The set was released on November 8, 2024.
Pokémon TCG: Surging Sparks Pull Rates, TCGplayer (Authentication Center) Official / primary source · accessed October 23, 2026
TCGplayer market price history: Pikachu ex 238/191, Latias ex 239/191 and Milotic ex 237/191 (Surging Sparks), TCGplayer Official / primary source · accessed October 23, 2026
Rochelle Lee writes price guides and set coverage for Cardboard Alpha. Rochelle works in sales as an account executive serving escrow and mortgage teams, a field where a price means little without comparable sales behind it, and brings that comps-first instinct to cards: what individual cards are worth, how whole sets and eras have held their value, and how a card's sold history differs from what sellers are currently asking. Each guide is built from published pricing and population data first, cites every source inline, and is fact-checked against those sources before it is published.
Rochelle Lee's articles describe card and set values using published pricing and population data. They are informational and are not personalized investment advice.
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