Speculating on New Sets: Why Chase-Card Hype Rarely Holds
49 of 55 chase cards from 11 English sets cost less on October 16, 2026 than in their first three weeks on TCGplayer, a median drop of 46 percent. Eight of 11 Elite Trainer Boxes cost more than in their first three weeks.
By Brandon Valdez · Reviewed by Jackie Chung ·
Launch prices for new-set chase cards mostly did not hold. Across the five highest-priced Ultra Rare, Illustration Rare or rarer singles in each of 11 English sets released from January 2025 to July 2026, 49 of 55 had a lower TCGplayer Market Price on October 16, 2026 than their average over the first three weekly readings after release. The median card was down 46 percent, and 22 had lost half or more.
Six cards were higher, and four more were less than 10 percent lower. Seven of those ten came from Black Bolt, White Flare and Ascended Heroes.
Elite Trainer Boxes ended differently: their Market Price fell from the final pre-release week into release week in 10 of the 11 sets, yet eight of the 11 cost more on October 16, 2026 than in their first three weeks. This is a record of past prices, not a forecast, and it does not rate any card or product.
How the comparison works
The sample is every English main-line expansion in Cardboard Alpha's catalog from Prismatic Evolutions (January 17, 2025) to Pitch Black (July 17, 2026). 30th Celebration, released September 16, 2026, had under five weeks of history and is left out; its top cards are ranked in a separate October chase ladder.
Each set contributes the five Ultra Rare, Illustration Rare or rarer singles with the highest first-weeks price, so cards that later collapsed stay in the sample. Master Ball pattern cards, which carry lower rarities, are outside that rule.
First-weeks price is the average of TCGplayer's Near Mint Market Price on the Sunday that closes the release week and on the next two Sundays; Ascended Heroes' Pikachu ex 276/217 and Mega Dragonite ex 295/217 have no release-week price and average the next two. TCGplayer builds Market Price from recent completed sales, averaged across several transactions with outliers ignored.
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