Kakuna — 002/086

Not enough completed auctions to price a demand spread for this instrument.

No graded population or grading economics modelled for this printing.

Over 30d: inventory +39.1%, cheap depth no data, sales velocity no data -> NEUTRAL.

What changed

Sold median moved -23.3% over the trailing 7 days and -30.0% over 30 days, last printing at $14.83. Active TCGplayer listings rose 20% over the same 7 days to 128.

Primary explanation

Primary read: Price trend scored 0/100 (composite weight 14%). — the largest single contributor to the current FALLING regime read.

Alternative

Alternative explanation: Supply tightness scored 11/100 (composite weight 12%).. With 0 distinct sellers/observations in the trailing window, either read is defensible — this is not a high-conviction single-cause move.

Evidence

Evidence: raw~tcgdex:me04-002:EN:NORMAL~NM|SOLD_MEDIAN|TCGPLAYER, raw~tcgdex:me04-002:EN:NORMAL~NM|LISTING_COUNT|TCGPLAYER, absorption read ("Over 30d: inventory +39.1%, cheap depth no data, sales velocity no data -> NEUTRAL.").

Confidence

Confidence: 50% (floor-confidence 31/100), based on 30 days of observations.

What would disprove it

This read would be wrong if active listings rebound above 147 while sold median keeps falling.