Gem Mint 10 Odds by Set: Which Sets Grade the Hardest

Gem mint 10 odds differ enormously by set, and the gap is measurable, not folklore. PSA's own Population Report puts the Neo Genesis set's PSA 10 rate at 3.2 percent (1,944 of 60,988 cards graded, as of September 1, 2026), while 2021's Evolving Skies sits at 59.2 percent (207,901 of 351,349) on the same report.

PSA publishes the counts, not the reasons behind them, so the spread is a measured outcome rather than an explained one. The same pattern repeats inside a single set: Base Set's overall gem rate looks respectable until you isolate Charizard.

Gem rates by set, per PSA's own data

A gem rate is simple to define: PSA 10 population divided by total graded population, for a card or a whole set. PSA's own standard describes a Gem Mint 10 through the same four criteria used across the grading industry: four sharp corners and full original gloss, free of staining, with centering no worse than about 55/45 on the front and 75/25 on the back (PSA Grading Standards, accessed September 1, 2026).

Pulled from PSA's Population Report on the same day, five sets spanning three Pokemon eras show how differently that standard bites depending on when and how a set was printed.

Source: PSA Population Report, individual set pages, accessed September 1, 2026. Gem rate equals PSA 10 population divided by total PSA-graded population for the full set.

The spread runs from roughly 1-in-31 up to better than 1-in-2. Nothing in that range behaves like a hobby-wide constant.

Same era, two very different odds

Base Set and Neo Genesis are both WOTC-era prints released a year apart. Their gem rates still differ by more than 3x, 10.0 percent against 3.2 percent, per the same PSA Population Report.

Age alone does not explain that gap, and PSA does not publish a cause. What the report does show is how differently the two graded populations are built:

• Population size: Base Set's graded population tops 1.1 million cards. Neo Genesis's stands at 60,988, under 6 percent of that (PSA Population Report, both accessed September 1, 2026).
• Where the grades land: Neo Genesis's largest single grade band is PSA 8, at 15,199 cards. Base Set's is PSA 9, at 276,008. The two sets are not being graded into the same shape.
• PSA's own caveat: the report notes that PSA began recognizing certain varieties long after it started grading some sets, so counts keep shifting as collectors reholder older slabs into the newer labels.

Anything past that is inference. What the numbers settle is narrower: two WOTC-era prints from the same publisher, printed a year apart, sit at opposite ends of this article's entire range.

Skyridge undercuts its own reputation

Skyridge was the last expansion Wizards of the Coast produced and the third and final main set of the e-Card series (Bulbapedia, accessed September 1, 2026). It carries a long-standing collector reputation as one of the hardest sets to grade. PSA's own numbers complicate that story. Skyridge's set-wide gem rate is 19.6 percent (17,732 of 90,615 cards graded, PSA Population Report, accessed September 1, 2026), nearly double Base Set's rate and more than six times Neo Genesis's.

That does not make Skyridge easy. A specific chase card inside the set can still gem far below its set's average, the same way Base Set Charizard does inside Base Set. But the full-set population data does not support treating "e-Reader era" as shorthand for "hardest to grade, full stop."

Two modern chase sets, two different odds

Era does not settle the question either: Sword & Shield era chase sets like Evolving Skies and Scarlet & Violet era specials such as Prismatic Evolutions are both modern by any definition, yet their gem rates sit 26 points apart, 59.2 percent against 33.1 percent (PSA Population Report, both accessed September 1, 2026).

PSA's report does not publish a reason for that gap. CardGrade.io's Prismatic Evolutions grading guide, published February 15, 2026, points to the set's Special Illustration Rares. The guide says their very thin border makes even minor centering shifts visible, that faint print lines still appear on textured cards under angled light, and that thin modern card stock picks up edge whitening from slight friction during pack extraction.

That is guide commentary, not a PSA-confirmed cause, and it is presented here only as such.

One set, wildly different odds by card

Set-wide numbers can hide a much harder card. Base Set's overall gem rate is 10.0 percent, but PSA's unqualified Charizard-Holo row, the Unlimited print, gems at just 0.5 percent (488 PSA 10s out of 102,533 graded, PSA Population Report, accessed September 1, 2026). PSA lists the 1st Edition printing on its own line, and it does somewhat better at 2.3 percent (123 of 5,375 graded).

Charizard's raw market already prices some of that scarcity in before a card ever reaches a grader. As of September 1, 2026, TCGplayer's near-mint holofoil market price is $868.56 on the Base Set Charizard product and $10,000.00 on the separate Base Set (Shadowless) Charizard product (TCGplayer, both accessed September 1, 2026). Neither figure is a graded price; both describe raw-card demand ahead of any grading outcome.

What the report shows about that gap:

• Submission volume: the Charizard-Holo row alone holds 102,533 of Base Set's 1,125,406 graded cards, roughly 9 percent of the set's entire graded population from one card number.
• Where its grades land: the Unlimited Charizard's most common grade is PSA 6, at 18,534 cards, against 488 tens. The set as a whole peaks at PSA 9.
• The printing split: the same artwork in the 1st Edition printing gems at 2.3 percent, more than four times the Unlimited rate, on a graded population about one twentieth the size.

PSA publishes the counts, not the reasons. Any explanation for the gap beyond what those columns show is inference.

PSA 10 is not automatically CGC 10

A "gem mint 10" is not one universal bar across grading companies. PSA's Gem Mint 10 requires four sharp corners, full gloss, freedom from staining, and centering within roughly 55/45 on the front and 75/25 on the back, with only a slight printing imperfection tolerated (PSA Grading Standards, accessed September 1, 2026).

CGC restructured its own top grades in 2023. What CGC used to label Gem Mint 9.5 is now called Gem Mint 10, and CGC added a new Pristine 10 tier above it, reserved for cards with 50/50 centering and flawless color and registration (CGC Cards Grading Scale, accessed September 1, 2026).

A card that would have carried a CGC 9.5 label before that change now carries a CGC 10. Gem rates quoted from different grading companies, or from the same company before and after a scale change, are not directly comparable without checking which scale produced them.

Gem rates are published data, and they are worth reading one set at a time rather than by era. Cardboard Alpha's cross-sectional screener covers the market side of the same comparison, with fair value, liquidity and supply columns across the covered card universe.