Popplio — 018/084

Not enough completed auctions to price a demand spread for this instrument.

No graded population or grading economics modelled for this printing.

Over 30d: inventory -25.0%, cheap depth no data, sales velocity no data -> ABSORPTION.

What changed

Sold median moved -0.6% over the trailing 7 days and -4.8% over 30 days, last printing at $1.59. Active TCGplayer listings fell 6% over the same 7 days to 63.

Primary explanation

Primary read: Absorption scored 82/100 (composite weight 14%). — the largest single contributor to the current FALLING regime read.

Alternative

Alternative explanation: Supply tightness scored 72/100 (composite weight 12%).. With 0 distinct sellers/observations in the trailing window, either read is defensible — this is not a high-conviction single-cause move.

Evidence

Evidence: raw~tcgdex:me05-018:EN:NORMAL~NM|SOLD_MEDIAN|TCGPLAYER, raw~tcgdex:me05-018:EN:NORMAL~NM|LISTING_COUNT|TCGPLAYER, absorption read ("Over 30d: inventory -25.0%, cheap depth no data, sales velocity no data -> ABSORPTION.").

Confidence

Confidence: 40% (floor-confidence 60/100), based on 30 days of observations.

What would disprove it

This read would be wrong if active listings rebound above 72 while sold median keeps falling.