The vendor's catalog photograph of Paradigm Trigger Booster Box. It identifies the product; it is not evidence of condition, of what is inside, or of any price on this page.Product type, set and release date, contents, chase cards, price history and how it compares with the Sword & Shield era.
Price tracking for the Paradigm Trigger Booster Box only began in September 2026, so its story is a short one so far. The product is a sealed booster box from S12: Paradigm Trigger, a Sword & Shield era expansion for the Japanese Pokémon TCG that released on October 21, 2022. A booster box exists for opening packs, which makes it the standard route into a set's full card pool. The set has two sealed products in all, this box and the individual booster pack.
The Paradigm Trigger Booster Box holds 30 booster packs, and each pack contains 5 random cards.
Paradigm Trigger is opened mainly for its V and VSTAR cards, and this box's packs can yield all of them. Lugia V, a Super Rare, leads the set by value, followed by Regidrago V and Unown V, also Super Rares. Lugia VSTAR follows twice: the Ultra Rare version ranks 4th and the Hyper Rare version 5th. The set has 39 chase-tier cards across its 125 catalog printings, and value is heavily concentrated: the five cards above account for 82 percent of the set's total card value, so most of what a box holds beyond them carries little weight in the set's overall worth.
As of October 23, 2026, the Paradigm Trigger Booster Box is up 7 percent over the past 30 days. Tracking began in September 2026, so that short window is all the history there is to read, and it shows little beyond a modest recent uptick. The box now sits 7 percent above its tracked low from September 2026. The figures rest on a modelled market guide rather than a run of recent sales, so they describe the general level of the market, not a confirmed last sale.
Written from market data as of October 24, 2026; the tables update live.
Among Sword & Shield era booster boxes, the Paradigm Trigger Booster Box ranks 16th by price of 25 comparable products, and it sits about equal to the era median. The previous set's equivalent, the Incandescent Arcana Booster Box, is priced lower, while the next set's VSTAR Universe Booster Box is priced higher. Within its own set's line, the box ranks 1st of 2 priced products, ahead of the booster pack.
| Measure | This productParadigm Trigger Booster Box | Median of 25 booster boxesSword & Shield median | Previous setIncandescent Arcana Booster Box | Next setVSTAR Universe Booster Box |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Set | S12: Paradigm Trigger | — | S11a: Incandescent Arcana |
$172.16, the venue's modelled guide price, not a confirmed sale, as of October 24, 2026.
Paradigm Trigger Booster Box is from S12: Paradigm Trigger.
We don't currently track retail stock for Paradigm Trigger Booster Box, which is not the same as it being sold out.
| Release date | Oct 21, 2022 | — | Sep 2, 2022 | Dec 2, 2022 |
|---|
| Price | $172.16 | $185.76 | $99.98 | $212.23 |
|---|
guide · modelled
units · vs prior 30d
as of Oct 25, 2026 · UTC
Paradigm Trigger Booster Box · 1DMkt$172.16+0.7%guide priceitem price
Vol — sold·0 prints·1 obssingle obs — no range
collector thesis · 180-720d horizon · 59% confidence on 37/100 data quality
Scenarios
ILLIQUID_UNKNOWN persists near current levels (non-probabilistic range -- data quality too thin to assign probabilities).rangeBASE · rangeILLIQUID_UNKNOWN persists near current levels (non-probabilistic range -- data quality too thin to assign probabilities).Evidence corroborates faster than expected, accelerating the thesis (non-probabilistic range).rangeBULL · rangeEvidence corroborates faster than expected, accelerating the thesis (non-probabilistic range).Evidence reverses sooner than expected, invalidating the thesis (non-probabilistic range).rangeBEAR · rangeEvidence reverses sooner than expected, invalidating the thesis (non-probabilistic range).Catalysts
Risks
Invalidation
The strongest case against this thesis: Liquidity scored 20/100 (composite weight 61%).
Model pq-quant-2026.10.0, as of 2026-10-24.
Research classification generated from observable market data with stated confidence and assumptions. Not personalized financial advice.
No published pack count for this product, so its price cannot be put on a per-pack footing.
The dearest of the 2 priced sealed products in S12: Paradigm Trigger.
Withheld — 7 of the 9 inputs have no sealed evidence, so there is nothing honest to blend.
7 inputs have no sealed evidence and were reweighted away: price trend, supply tightness, absorption, auction demand, grading reflexivity, relative strength, reprint / supply risk.
On file: 13 asks · 7 sales · 46 daily guide points · 83 stock readings.
| EvidenceEvidenceWhat kind of fact this row is. A completed sale, a live ask and a calculated guide price are three different weights of evidence about the same number, and this column is the difference between them. | ObservedObservedThe day the fact was read — not the day the underlying event happened, and not today. An old date is an old reading. | AgeAgeHow long ago this row was read, as of the moment the page was computed. | ConfidenceConfidenceHow much weight this row carries where it feeds a model, from the resolver that matched it. Lower means a looser match or a thinner source, and a low-confidence row is reweighted rather than dropped. | ModelledModelledYes = a CALCULATED value (a guide price, an estimate); No = something actually observed (a sale, a listing, a census count). A modelled row is evidence about a model, not about the market. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Live askA copy offered for sale right now. An ask is what a seller wants, not what anyone paid — it bounds the price from above until it clears. | Oct 24, 2026 | 1d | 90% | No |
| Price statisticAn observed figure computed over several rows rather than one print — a delivered floor, a published median over a window. | Oct 24, 2026 | 1d | 90% | No |
| Guide priceA calculated market guide — a model of where the product is trading. Never a confirmed sale, and always marked Modelled. | Oct 25, 2026 | 24h | 90% | Yes |
| Confirmed saleA completed transaction at a known price — the strongest evidence on this page. Prices are delivered (item + required shipping). | Oct 21, 2026 | 4d | 85% | No |
Every price is that product’s newest stored daily bar, picked by the same precedence the chart above uses — a real observed sale beats a modelled guide, and the guide stands in only on days with no sale. Per-pack divides by the PUBLISHED pack count and is withheld wherever that count is not on file, because a guessed denominator makes a fabricated price. Products the set has but we cannot price keep their row, with a dash.
Scored over a 30-day window on a sample of 28, formula pq-quant-2026.10.0. The packet reweighted 7 missing inputs away and applied a 35% confidence penalty for them: priceTrend, supplyTightness, absorption, auctionDemand, gradingReflexivity, relativeStrength, reprintSupplyRisk.
| Oct 24, 2026 |
| 1d |
| 70% |
| No |
No retailer is tracked for this product yet, which is not the same as it being sold out.
No wholesale listings seen for this product as of the last catalogue read on 2026-10-25.
No wholesale listings seen for this product as of the last catalogue read on 2026-10-25.
A wholesale ask is a distributor’s price for a whole lot — freight, minimums and any trade terms sit behind it — and is not a price a single box trades at. Links go to the distributor’s own page; nothing here is an affiliate link. Per-pack figures divide the lot price by the pack count the distributor published, never by a guessed one.
No wholesale listing has ever been matched to this set.
No distributor we read lists S12: Paradigm Trigger in bulk. That says nothing about the print run — only about these shelves.
A distributor’s public catalogue is a proxy for supply, not the print run.