The vendor's catalog photograph of Incandescent Arcana Booster Box. It identifies the product; it is not evidence of condition, of what is inside, or of any price on this page.Product type, set and release date, contents, chase cards, price history and how it compares with the Sword & Shield era.
Twenty booster packs make up the Japanese Incandescent Arcana Booster Box, a sealed case built for opening packs from S11a: Incandescent Arcana. The set belongs to the Sword & Shield era of the Japanese Pokémon TCG and came out on September 2, 2022. It is a small expansion with two sealed products in its line, this booster box and the single booster pack, so the box is the way to open the set in bulk.
The Incandescent Arcana Booster Box holds 20 booster packs, with 6 cards in each pack.
The cards this set is opened for start with Serperior V, a Character Super Rare, followed by two versions of Serena, a Super Rare and a Hyper Rare. Furisode Girl, a Super Rare, and Alolan Vulpix VSTAR, a Hyper Rare, round out the five most valuable cards. The set has 38 chase-tier cards, and its top five cards account for 46 percent of the set's total card value, so a good share of the value sits in a handful of pulls. The packs in this booster box can yield all of them.
As of October 23, 2026, the Incandescent Arcana Booster Box is up 4 percent over the past 30 days and sits 4 percent above its tracked low from September 2026. Tracking only began that month, so there is no longer trend to read yet. The figures rest on a modelled market guide rather than a run of recent sales.
Written from market data as of October 24, 2026; the tables update live.
Among the 25 Sword & Shield booster boxes, the Incandescent Arcana Booster Box ranks 24th by price and sits at 0.5 times the era median. The neighbouring sets' boxes are both priced higher: the Lost Abyss Booster Box from S11: Lost Abyss and the Paradigm Trigger Booster Box from S12: Paradigm Trigger. Within its own set's line it is the higher-priced of the two sealed products, ranking 1st of 2.
| Measure | This productIncandescent Arcana Booster Box | Median of 25 booster boxesSword & Shield median | Previous setLost Abyss Booster Box | Next setParadigm Trigger Booster Box |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Set | S11a: Incandescent Arcana | — | S11: Lost Abyss | S12: Paradigm Trigger |
$99.98, the venue's modelled guide price, not a confirmed sale, as of October 24, 2026.
Incandescent Arcana Booster Box is from S11a: Incandescent Arcana.
We don't currently track retail stock for Incandescent Arcana Booster Box, which is not the same as it being sold out.
| Release date | Sep 2, 2022 | — | Jul 15, 2022 | Oct 21, 2022 |
|---|
| Price | $99.98 | $185.76 | $357.87 | $172.16 |
|---|
guide · modelled
units · vs prior 30d
as of Oct 26, 2026 · UTC
Incandescent Arcana Booster Box · 1DMkt$99.980.0%guide priceitem price
Vol — sold·0 prints·1 obssingle obs — no range
floor thesis · 30-120d horizon · 59% confidence on 37/100 data quality
Scenarios
ILLIQUID_UNKNOWN persists near current levels (non-probabilistic range -- data quality too thin to assign probabilities).rangeBASE · rangeILLIQUID_UNKNOWN persists near current levels (non-probabilistic range -- data quality too thin to assign probabilities).Evidence corroborates faster than expected, accelerating the thesis (non-probabilistic range).rangeBULL · rangeEvidence corroborates faster than expected, accelerating the thesis (non-probabilistic range).Evidence reverses sooner than expected, invalidating the thesis (non-probabilistic range).rangeBEAR · rangeEvidence reverses sooner than expected, invalidating the thesis (non-probabilistic range).Catalysts
Risks
Invalidation
The strongest case against this thesis: Liquidity scored 36/100 (composite weight 61%).
Model pq-quant-2026.10.0, as of 2026-10-24.
Research classification generated from observable market data with stated confidence and assumptions. Not personalized financial advice.
No published pack count for this product, so its price cannot be put on a per-pack footing.
The dearest of the 2 priced sealed products in S11a: Incandescent Arcana.
Withheld — 7 of the 9 inputs have no sealed evidence, so there is nothing honest to blend.
7 inputs have no sealed evidence and were reweighted away: price trend, supply tightness, absorption, auction demand, grading reflexivity, relative strength, reprint / supply risk.
On file: 9 asks · 10 sales · 47 daily guide points · 83 stock readings.
| EvidenceEvidenceWhat kind of fact this row is. A completed sale, a live ask and a calculated guide price are three different weights of evidence about the same number, and this column is the difference between them. | ObservedObservedThe day the fact was read — not the day the underlying event happened, and not today. An old date is an old reading. | AgeAgeHow long ago this row was read, as of the moment the page was computed. | ConfidenceConfidenceHow much weight this row carries where it feeds a model, from the resolver that matched it. Lower means a looser match or a thinner source, and a low-confidence row is reweighted rather than dropped. | ModelledModelledYes = a CALCULATED value (a guide price, an estimate); No = something actually observed (a sale, a listing, a census count). A modelled row is evidence about a model, not about the market. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Live askA copy offered for sale right now. An ask is what a seller wants, not what anyone paid — it bounds the price from above until it clears. | Oct 24, 2026 | 2d | 90% | No |
| Price statisticAn observed figure computed over several rows rather than one print — a delivered floor, a published median over a window. | Oct 24, 2026 | 2d | 90% | No |
| Guide priceA calculated market guide — a model of where the product is trading. Never a confirmed sale, and always marked Modelled. | Oct 26, 2026 | 10h | 90% | Yes |
| Confirmed saleA completed transaction at a known price — the strongest evidence on this page. Prices are delivered (item + required shipping). | Oct 19, 2026 | 7d | 85% | No |
Every price is that product’s newest stored daily bar, picked by the same precedence the chart above uses — a real observed sale beats a modelled guide, and the guide stands in only on days with no sale. Per-pack divides by the PUBLISHED pack count and is withheld wherever that count is not on file, because a guessed denominator makes a fabricated price. Products the set has but we cannot price keep their row, with a dash.
Scored over a 30-day window on a sample of 28, formula pq-quant-2026.10.0. The packet reweighted 7 missing inputs away and applied a 35% confidence penalty for them: priceTrend, supplyTightness, absorption, auctionDemand, gradingReflexivity, relativeStrength, reprintSupplyRisk.
| Oct 24, 2026 |
| 2d |
| 70% |
| No |
No retailer is tracked for this product yet, which is not the same as it being sold out.
No wholesale listings seen for this product as of the last catalogue read on 2026-10-26.
No wholesale listings seen for this product as of the last catalogue read on 2026-10-26.
A wholesale ask is a distributor’s price for a whole lot — freight, minimums and any trade terms sit behind it — and is not a price a single box trades at. Links go to the distributor’s own page; nothing here is an affiliate link. Per-pack figures divide the lot price by the pack count the distributor published, never by a guessed one.
No wholesale listing has ever been matched to this set.
No distributor we read lists S11a: Incandescent Arcana in bulk. That says nothing about the print run — only about these shelves.
A distributor’s public catalogue is a proxy for supply, not the print run.