The vendor's catalog photograph of Neo Destiny Theme Deck - "Light". It identifies the product; it is not evidence of condition, of what is inside, or of any price on this page.item · median
Product type, set and release date, contents, chase cards, price history and how it compares with the WOTC era.
The Neo Destiny Theme Deck "Light" is a pre-constructed deck for the English-language Pokémon TCG, and it opens the set's contents as a ready-to-play 60-card build. It belongs to Neo Destiny, an expansion from the WOTC era that released on February 28, 2002. A theme deck of this kind is meant for learning the game and playing right out of the box, with no packs to open or deck to build first. The set has six sealed products in all, spanning booster boxes, booster packs and decks.
The Neo Destiny Theme Deck "Light" holds one pre-constructed 60-card deck, a set of damage counters and one coin.
Written from market data as of October 24, 2026; the tables update live.
Among the 13 decks from the WOTC era that carry prices, the Neo Destiny Theme Deck "Light" ranks 7th by price and sits about equal to the era median. Within its own set's line, it is the only priced product of the six, so no price rank within the set applies yet.
| Measure | This productNeo Destiny Theme Deck - "Light" | Median of 14 decksWOTC median |
|---|---|---|
| Set | Neo Destiny | — |
| Release date | Feb 28, 2002 | — |
| Price | $399.96 | $279.95 |
$399.96, the price of a confirmed sale, as of November 2, 2026.
Neo Destiny Theme Deck - "Light" is from Neo Destiny.
We don't currently track retail stock for Neo Destiny Theme Deck - "Light", which is not the same as it being sold out.
units · 1d so far
as of Oct 9, 2026 · UTC
Neo Destiny Theme Deck - "Light" · 1DMed$399.96+33.3%2 prints · medianitem price
Vol 4 sold4 tcgp·2 prints·2 obs
collector thesis · 180-720d horizon · 59% confidence on 17/100 data quality
Scenarios
ILLIQUID_UNKNOWN persists near current levels (non-probabilistic range -- data quality too thin to assign probabilities).rangeBASE · rangeILLIQUID_UNKNOWN persists near current levels (non-probabilistic range -- data quality too thin to assign probabilities).Evidence corroborates faster than expected, accelerating the thesis (non-probabilistic range).rangeBULL · rangeEvidence corroborates faster than expected, accelerating the thesis (non-probabilistic range).Evidence reverses sooner than expected, invalidating the thesis (non-probabilistic range).rangeBEAR · rangeEvidence reverses sooner than expected, invalidating the thesis (non-probabilistic range).Catalysts
Risks
Invalidation
The strongest case against this thesis: Data quality scored 17/100 (composite weight 24%).
Model pq-quant-2026.10.0, as of 2026-11-02.
Research classification generated from observable market data with stated confidence and assumptions. Not personalized financial advice.
No published pack count for this product, so its price cannot be put on a per-pack footing.
Withheld — 6 of the 9 inputs have no sealed evidence, so there is nothing honest to blend.
On file: 2 asks · 4 sales · 124 daily guide points · 138 stock readings.
| EvidenceEvidenceWhat kind of fact this row is. A completed sale, a live ask and a calculated guide price are three different weights of evidence about the same number, and this column is the difference between them. | ObservedObservedThe day the fact was read — not the day the underlying event happened, and not today. An old date is an old reading. | AgeAgeHow long ago this row was read, as of the moment the page was computed. | ConfidenceConfidenceHow much weight this row carries where it feeds a model, from the resolver that matched it. Lower means a looser match or a thinner source, and a low-confidence row is reweighted rather than dropped. | ModelledModelledYes = a CALCULATED value (a guide price, an estimate); No = something actually observed (a sale, a listing, a census count). A modelled row is evidence about a model, not about the market. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Live askA copy offered for sale right now. An ask is what a seller wants, not what anyone paid — it bounds the price from above until it clears. | Oct 9, 2026 | 25d | 90% | No |
| Price statisticAn observed figure computed over several rows rather than one print — a delivered floor, a published median over a window. | Oct 9, 2026 | 25d | 90% | No |
| Guide priceA calculated market guide — a model of where the product is trading. Never a confirmed sale, and always marked Modelled. | Oct 9, 2026 | 26d | 90% | Yes |
| Confirmed saleA completed transaction at a known price — the strongest evidence on this page. Prices are delivered (item + required shipping). | Oct 9, 2026 | 25d | 85% | No |
Every price is that product’s newest stored daily bar, picked by the same precedence the chart above uses — a real observed sale beats a modelled guide, and the guide stands in only on days with no sale. Per-pack divides by the PUBLISHED pack count and is withheld wherever that count is not on file, because a guessed denominator makes a fabricated price. Products the set has but we cannot price keep their row, with a dash.
6 inputs have no sealed evidence and were reweighted away: price trend, supply tightness, absorption, auction demand, grading reflexivity, reprint / supply risk.
Scored over a 30-day window on a sample of 24, formula pq-quant-2026.10.0. The packet reweighted 6 missing inputs away and applied a 35% confidence penalty for them: priceTrend, supplyTightness, absorption, auctionDemand, gradingReflexivity, reprintSupplyRisk.
| Nov 2, 2026 |
| 2d |
| 70% |
| No |
No wholesale listings seen for this product as of the last catalogue read on 2026-11-03.
No wholesale listings seen for this product as of the last catalogue read on 2026-11-03.
A wholesale ask is a distributor’s price for a whole lot — freight, minimums and any trade terms sit behind it — and is not a price a single box trades at. Links go to the distributor’s own page; nothing here is an affiliate link. Per-pack figures divide the lot price by the pack count the distributor published, never by a guessed one.
No wholesale listing has ever been matched to this set.
No distributor we read lists Neo Destiny in bulk. That says nothing about the print run — only about these shelves.
A distributor’s public catalogue is a proxy for supply, not the print run.
No retailer is tracked for this product yet, which is not the same as it being sold out.
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