The vendor's catalog photograph of Chaos Rising Elite Trainer Box Case. It identifies the product; it is not evidence of condition, of what is inside, or of any price on this page.Product type, set and release date, contents, chase cards, price history and how it compares with the Mega Evolution era.
Chaos Rising is an expansion from the Mega Evolution era of the English-language Pokémon TCG, released on May 22, 2026. The Chaos Rising Elite Trainer Box Case is a sealed case of Elite Trainer Boxes, built for opening packs in bulk: the Elite Trainer Boxes inside carry the set's booster packs along with play accessories. The set has 23 sealed products in total, and this case is one of the larger configurations among them.
The Chaos Rising Elite Trainer Box Case holds 10 Chaos Rising Elite Trainer Boxes, sealed together as a single case.
Chaos Rising is opened for Mega Greninja ex, which holds the top two spots in the set by value: its Special illustration rare and its Mega Hyper Rare. Cinccino ex and Mega Dragalge ex, both Special illustration rares, follow in third and fourth. The set lists 86 official cards plus 36 secrets, and 46 cards sit in the chase tiers. Value is heavily concentrated, with the five most valuable cards making up 71 percent of the set's total card value. The Elite Trainer Boxes in this case contain Chaos Rising packs, so these cards can be pulled from it.
As of October 23, 2026, the Chaos Rising Elite Trainer Box Case is down 54 percent since tracking began in March 2026, which is also where its tracked high sits. It now trades 14 percent above its tracked low from October 2026. The recent trend is flatter: down 6 percent over the past 90 days and down 1 percent over the past 30 days, which suggests the steep drop has slowed. These figures rest on a modelled market guide.
Written from market data as of October 24, 2026; the tables update live.
Among cases of Elite Trainer Boxes in the Mega Evolution era, this one ranks 7th by price of 10, at about 0.9 times the era median. Its neighbours sit close by: the Perfect Order Elite Trainer Box Case from the previous set and the Pitch Black Elite Trainer Box Case from the next are both priced about equal. Within the Chaos Rising line, it ranks 5th by price of 22 priced products, and the Chaos Rising Booster Box Case is the highest priced.
| Measure | This productChaos Rising Elite Trainer Box Case | Median of 10 cases of Elite Trainer BoxesMega Evolution median | Previous setPerfect Order Elite Trainer Box Case | Next setPitch Black Elite Trainer Box Case |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Set | Chaos Rising | — | Perfect Order |
$699.39, the venue's modelled guide price, not a confirmed sale, as of November 5, 2026.
Chaos Rising Elite Trainer Box Case is from Chaos Rising.
We don't currently track retail stock for Chaos Rising Elite Trainer Box Case, which is not the same as it being sold out.
| Release date | May 22, 2026 | — | Mar 27, 2026 | Jul 17, 2026 |
|---|
| Price | $699.39 | $803.78 | $674.58 | $760.89 |
|---|
guide · modelled
units · vs prior 30d
as of Nov 5, 2026 · UTC
Chaos Rising Elite Trainer Box Case · 1DMkt$699.39-5.3%guide priceitem price
Vol — sold·0 prints·1 obssingle obs — no range
relative value thesis · 30-180d horizon · 65% confidence on 17/100 data quality
Scenarios
ILLIQUID_UNKNOWN persists near current levels (non-probabilistic range -- data quality too thin to assign probabilities).rangeBASE · rangeILLIQUID_UNKNOWN persists near current levels (non-probabilistic range -- data quality too thin to assign probabilities).Evidence corroborates faster than expected, accelerating the thesis (non-probabilistic range).rangeBULL · rangeEvidence corroborates faster than expected, accelerating the thesis (non-probabilistic range).Evidence reverses sooner than expected, invalidating the thesis (non-probabilistic range).rangeBEAR · rangeEvidence reverses sooner than expected, invalidating the thesis (non-probabilistic range).Catalysts
Risks
Invalidation
The strongest case against this thesis: Data quality scored 17/100 (composite weight 16%).
Model pq-quant-2026.10.0, as of 2026-11-05.
Research classification generated from observable market data with stated confidence and assumptions. Not personalized financial advice.
No published pack count for this product, so its price cannot be put on a per-pack footing.
The 5th dearest of the 22 priced sealed products in Chaos Rising.
Composite over the 4 inputs that resolved.
On file: 38 asks · 30 sales · 292 daily guide points · 139 stock readings.
| EvidenceEvidenceWhat kind of fact this row is. A completed sale, a live ask and a calculated guide price are three different weights of evidence about the same number, and this column is the difference between them. | ObservedObservedThe day the fact was read — not the day the underlying event happened, and not today. An old date is an old reading. | AgeAgeHow long ago this row was read, as of the moment the page was computed. | ConfidenceConfidenceHow much weight this row carries where it feeds a model, from the resolver that matched it. Lower means a looser match or a thinner source, and a low-confidence row is reweighted rather than dropped. | ModelledModelledYes = a CALCULATED value (a guide price, an estimate); No = something actually observed (a sale, a listing, a census count). A modelled row is evidence about a model, not about the market. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Live askA copy offered for sale right now. An ask is what a seller wants, not what anyone paid — it bounds the price from above until it clears. | Nov 5, 2026 | 1d | 90% | No |
| Guide priceA calculated market guide — a model of where the product is trading. Never a confirmed sale, and always marked Modelled. | Nov 5, 2026 | 2d | 90% | Yes |
| Price statisticAn observed figure computed over several rows rather than one print — a delivered floor, a published median over a window. | Nov 5, 2026 | 1d | 90% | No |
| Confirmed saleA completed transaction at a known price — the strongest evidence on this page. Prices are delivered (item + required shipping). | Nov 4, 2026 | 2d | 85% | No |
Every price is that product’s newest stored daily bar, picked by the same precedence the chart above uses — a real observed sale beats a modelled guide, and the guide stands in only on days with no sale. Per-pack divides by the PUBLISHED pack count and is withheld wherever that count is not on file, because a guessed denominator makes a fabricated price. Products the set has but we cannot price keep their row, with a dash.
5 inputs have no sealed evidence and were reweighted away: supply tightness, absorption, auction demand, grading reflexivity, reprint / supply risk.
Scored over a 30-day window on a sample of 87, formula pq-quant-2026.10.0. The packet reweighted 5 missing inputs away and applied a 28% confidence penalty for them: supplyTightness, absorption, auctionDemand, gradingReflexivity, reprintSupplyRisk.
| Nov 5, 2026 |
| 1d |
| 70% |
| No |
No retailer is tracked for this product yet, which is not the same as it being sold out.
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No wholesale listings seen for this product as of the last catalogue read on 2026-11-06.
No wholesale listings seen for this product as of the last catalogue read on 2026-11-06.
A wholesale ask is a distributor’s price for a whole lot — freight, minimums and any trade terms sit behind it — and is not a price a single box trades at. Links go to the distributor’s own page; nothing here is an affiliate link. Per-pack figures divide the lot price by the pack count the distributor published, never by a guessed one.
28 lots listed on 2026-11-06 — higher than 99% of the set's own readings; 11868 packs on hand, higher than 99% over 52 readings in 90 days.
Bulk is pouring in: fresh packs mean fresh raw NM singles, so Chaos Rising's raw copies are the most exposed; graded copies are insulated.
6 distributors’ public catalogues are a proxy for supply, not the print run.