Loading the market wall…
Band $10.84–$12.98
Good liquidity
as of Aug 27, 2026 · UTC · demo fixture
Squirtle — 63/102 · 1DO$12.04H$12.04L$12.04C$12.04+1.3%plotting daily close
Vol — sold·0 prints·1 obssingle obs — no range
Asks at delivered prices · cheapest first · unknown shipping unranked
Estimated Fair Value
$11.91
Fair Value Range
$10.84 – $12.98
Deviation
+1.1%At Fair Value
vs best delivered ask $12.04
Not enough completed auctions to price a demand spread for this instrument.
No graded population or grading economics modelled for this printing.
Over 30d: inventory +6.3%, cheap depth no data, sales velocity no data -> NEUTRAL.
| Scenario | Prob. | Description |
|---|---|---|
| BASE | 50% | FLOOR_FORMING persists near current levels. |
| BULL | 15% | Absorption/demand corroboration strengthens faster than expected, accelerating the thesis. |
| BEAR | 35% | Supply returns or demand fails to corroborate, invalidating the thesis sooner than expected. |
Catalysts
Loading opportunities…
| Provider | Source | Observed | Confidence | Modelled | License |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TCGDEX | — | Jan 9, 1999 | 98% | No | TCGdex catalog |
| FIXTURE_IMPORT | — | Aug 27, 2026 | 50% | No | — |
Nearby in Base Set
Components
Band is ±9.0% of the point estimate: 1 of 4 components available (missing: sales vwap, depth clearing, auction clearing — 80% of weight reweighted away, 35% confidence penalty), on 0 observation(s) in the trailing 30d. Thin samples and missing components widen the band 4.50x over the raw component spread.
Raw Listing Supply
371
+6.3% 30d
Graded Population
—
—
Liquidity Score
73/100Good
Market Depth
—
top 0 ask levels
Cross-Market Basis
No bid evidence — Asks are live fixed-price listings at delivered prices (item + required shipping). No bid side exists: this market has no resting bid book. There are no live auction bids and no published buylist for this instrument, so the bid side is empty rather than synthesized from asks, price history or a spread assumption.
Impact (1 lot)
—
Impact (5 lots)
—
Net Flow (30D)
—
—
Buyers / Sellers
—
—
Large Txns
—
threshold n/a
Smart Money Signal · Insufficient Data
Insufficient data: 0 classified print(s) of 0 in the trailing 30d; need >= 8.
59.2
Quant Score / 100
Floor confidence: 46.5
-19% penalty (5 missing)
Missing: auctionDemand, attentionQuality, gradingReflexivity, relativeStrength, collectorAppeal
Top drivers
Risks
Invalidation
No standout bearish driver today, but the read still rests on the currently available evidence and can reverse if conditions change.
Next evidence
Research classification generated from observable market data with stated confidence and assumptions. Not personalized financial advice.