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Last $20.86 · $25.85 delivered · 1d
≈$22.33 item · Band $21.88–$24.75
Fair liquidity
units · 27d so far
9 sellers
as of Oct 15, 2026 · UTC
history since Sep 2026
Pikachu — 014 · 1DMkt$23.61-0.2%guide price · 3-day avgitem priceLast $20.86 · Oct 13 ($25.85 delivered)
Vol — sold·0 prints·1 obs
Priced at fair — cheapest delivered ask $23.49.
$319.93 clears the cheap side — 15 days of turnover (0.60 book-months, 9 asks).
Book
10%$47.98$24.49 ask-1%Sweeping 10% of the visible book costs $47.98The next unbought ask after that sweep sits at $24.49 ask — -1% against today's cheapest.Visible asks only, at delivered prices. An unshipped listing has no delivered price and is not in this ladder.50%$177.56$26.79 ask+8%Sweeping 50% of the visible book costs $177.56The next unbought ask after that sweep sits at $26.79 ask — +8% against today's cheapest.Visible asks only, at delivered prices. An unshipped listing has no delivered price and is not in this ladder.80%$260.97$28.51 ask+15%Sweeping 80% of the visible book costs $260.97The next unbought ask after that sweep sits at $28.51 ask — +15% against today's cheapest.Visible asks only, at delivered prices. An unshipped listing has no delivered price and is not in this ladder.Book $319.93Total notional on the visible ask ladder, and the largest single seller's share of it. A book that is mostly one seller's inventory is one decision away from moving.Best ask vs fair · $23.49 vs $23.32+0.7%Best ask vs fair+0.7%$23.49 vs $23.32Cost to +50%$319.93
clears the entire visible book
Days to absorb15
12 units to control
Book breadth1 level
12 units on the board
Book / 30d sold0.60x
30d traded $537.02
VenuesTCGplayer
The absorption ladder walks the visible delivered-price ask book cheapest-first: what each slice of the book costs, the ask it leaves marginal, and how far that sits from the last price the card actually traded at. Manipulation risk is the worse of two reads — how many days of this card’s own turnover it would take to absorb the cost of control, and whether the whole buyable book fits inside a single ordinary order.
Insufficient data
Only 27 days of sold history — a full 30-day window is needed to read a pace.
Daily units are the venue's own sold-quantity history, expanded off each bucket's real span, plus confirmed prints from the other side of the market. Prints come from the live sales tape at delivered prices. The floor is the cheapest delivered ask (item + required shipping) across venues — the same one FAIR VALUE prices against.
Over 30d: 12 confirmed print(s); net flow +$329.48 across 14 buy-side vs 1 sell-side unit(s); large prints (>= $31.44) were 30% of notional and skewed buy-side -> ACCUMULATING.
62/100 across 6 of 11 inputs. For: the tape is accumulating at 14.0:1.
Not reading yet: price trend, book pressure, grading upside, seller concentration, reprint risk.
The bottom line is a weighted mean of the signals that reported, renormalised so their weights sum to 1. Nothing defaults to a neutral 50: an input with no evidence is reweighted away and its absence is charged as a confidence penalty. Risk rows (manipulation, concentration, reprint) enter inverted. Data quality carries no weight at all — it decides whether the verdict may be spoken, because knowing a lot about a card is not a reason to buy it. Competitive meta sits OUTSIDE the weighted mean as a capped bonus added after it: a card nobody plays is never marked down for that, and a card the meta is built on can be marked up for it.
1 in 10 packs for none, shared by 30 cards in 30th Classic Collection — but we track no sealed product for 30th Classic Collection, so a pack has no price to divide the odds into.
Breakdown
RarityNoneRarityNoneThe provider's own spelling, verbatim. The odds row and this printing have to carry the same string or no estimate is made — a mismatch must produce nothing rather than another rarity's rate.Slot odds1 in 10 packsSlot odds1 in 10 packstcgtalk — 64 hits in 652 packs. Measured Sep 22, 2026, 23d before this reading. 64 of 652 counted packs (1 in 10.2). @Tommy13 observed 1 in 9.6 over 4,063 packs. Community measurement, not official odds: nobody publishes physical pack rates.Cards at rarity30 in 30th Classic CollectionCards at rarity30 in 30th Classic CollectionCounted from the catalog: 30 printings in 30th Classic Collection carry the rarity "None".This card1 in 306 packs±30%This card1 in 306 packsThe rarity’s measured odds, split evenly across the 30 cards printed at it. That even split is the estimate's weakest link, and it is bounded rather than hand-waved: a published 8,000-pack study put two Special Illustration Rares from one set at 1 in 309 and 1 in 393 packs — same rarity, same set — so a per-card figure is good to about ±30%.P(this card, per pack) = the published odds of its RARITY appearing, split evenly across the cards printed at that rarity in the set. Expected packs is 1/p, the mean of the geometric distribution. The range plots expected pack spend ÷ the single's delivered price on a log axis centred on parity. Pack price is a sealed product's own price divided by its stated pack count, and is computed only where that count carries a source. The single is the cheapest delivered ask (item + required shipping) across venues — the same figure FAIR VALUE prices against.
The Pokémon Company has never published physical booster odds in any region — the only official drop-rate page covers the digital TCG Live packs and lists no probabilities at all. Every figure here is a hand-entered citation of a published pack-opening study, and each one names its source and sample on hover.
30 readings of this book so far, one per 1 day, over 28d. The direction reads once there are enough of them to tell a drawdown from noise.
Each reading takes the venue's own listing count for this card in this condition — the whole book — at that instant. The direction is classified by the platform's absorption reading over that series: a book drawn down with demand behind it reads as accumulation, one that refills after a drawdown reads as distribution. Copies and sellers come from the cheapest asks we sample, not from the book, and are labelled as such. Sold units are confirmed prints from the live tape over the same span, and are shown only when the tape reaches back past the first reading.
The direction is classified over the platform-standard 30-day trailing window. That window is a scope, not a history: it contains exactly the readings counted on this card and no others — and only readings that counted the venue’s own book, never a sampled one trended against a counted one.
12 units listed across 9 sellers — 14.7d of stock at the 30-day pace of 0.8/day.
Half of all openers get one within 212 packs
P(this card, per pack) = the published odds of its RARITY appearing, split evenly across the cards printed at that rarity in the set; the figure shown is 1/p, the mean number of packs to one copy. The ladder plots every tier of the set on a logarithmic scale, because a set spans two orders of magnitude between its commonest hit and its hardest and a linear scale would pin all but one of them to the same end.
The Pokémon Company has never published physical booster odds in any region — the only official drop-rate page covers the digital TCG Live packs and lists no probabilities at all. This figure is a hand-entered citation of a published pack-opening study of this set.
Graded population climbs for about a year after a set releases and then levels off, so a set inside that ramp looks lightly printed purely because nobody has sent its cards in yet. 30th Classic Collection is 0 months old. We hold the read until 12 months.
Model inputs
Packs per copy1 in 306Packs per copy1 in 306How many packs it takes to see one named copy of this card — the same figure SCARCITY leads with. It is what converts a set-wide print scale into this card’s own.Graded population is print run × how often anyone bothers grading it, and the second factor moves with VALUE — so population is divided by price^0.606, the elasticity fitted across 3,826 cards that carry a population, a price and a pull rate at once. That normalised count is turned into a SET pack scale using the card’s pull rate (every card in a set is an independent read on how many packs exist, pooled by median), then brought back down to this card by its own pull rate. The band is a tertile of the result across every card that clears the gates.
Nobody has ever published a Pokémon print run, and this does not recover one — it is an ORDER, not a count. It reads surviving graded supply across PSA, CGC and ACE, so ungraded and sealed stock are invisible to it. What it is checked against: the model puts Black & White at the bottom of the catalog and modern Scarlet & Violet at the top, which is where the smallest and largest print runs actually are.
Does the meta move the price? Share of Standard decklists running this card against this print's median sale price and units sold, day by day; the rank correlation above is printed once 8 weeks exist.
94.5% of card lines in these decklists matched a card in our catalog; an unmatched line is never counted. Online events only, not Regionals or Worlds. Tournament results →
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| EvidenceEvidenceWhat kind of fact this row is. A completed sale, a live ask and a calculated guide price are three different weights of evidence about the same number, and this column is the difference between them. | ObservedObservedThe day the fact was read — not the day the underlying event happened, and not today. An old date is an old reading. | AgeAgeHow long ago this row was read, as of the moment the page was computed. | ConfidenceConfidenceHow much weight this row carries where it feeds a model, from the resolver that matched it. Lower means a looser match or a thinner source, and a low-confidence row is reweighted rather than dropped. | ModelledModelledYes = a CALCULATED value (a guide price, an estimate); No = something actually observed (a sale, a listing, a census count). A modelled row is evidence about a model, not about the market. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CatalogCard identity: set, number, rarity, finish, release date. It dates from the printing itself, so an old reading here is expected and is not staleness. | Sep 16, 2026 | 29d | 98% | No |
| Live askA copy offered for sale right now. An ask is what a seller wants, not what anyone paid — it bounds the price from above until it clears. | Oct 15, 2026 | 4h | 90% | No |
| Price statisticAn observed figure computed over several rows rather than one print — a delivered floor, a published median over a window. | Oct 15, 2026 | 4h | 90% | No |
| Confirmed saleA completed transaction at a known price — the strongest evidence on this page. Prices are delivered (item + required shipping). | Oct 13, 2026 | 2d | 85% | No |
| Inventory countHow many copies and listings stand on the book. What depth, supply and absorption are measured against. | Oct 15, 2026 | 4h | 70% | No |
| Guide priceA calculated market guide — a model of where the product is trading. Never a confirmed sale, and always marked Modelled. | Oct 15, 2026 | 6h | 60% | Yes |
Nearby in 30th Classic Collection
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