Pikachu — 014Raw · Holo · Near MintEvery price, print, listing and score on this page belongs to this one printing in this one condition or grade — switch either dropdown and you are looking at a different one.
The condition or grade being priced. Each one is a separate instrument that trades at its own price, so choosing one replaces every figure on the page. “All conditions” and “All grades” are a union of the siblings — their tape, listings and volume are combined, with one sibling named as the reference for price and analytics.
▁Floor FormingFloor FormingPrice is stabilising near a drawdown low, volatility is cooling and depth has stopped thinning. A floor being tested — not yet one that has held.▾UndervaluedUndervaluedThe market price sits below the blended fair-value band — not merely below its midpoint. The blend and its four components are on the FAIR VALUE card; the wider the band, the weaker this call.⇈AccumulationAccumulationBoth directions agree over the flow window: net dollars cleared at or above the prevailing ask, AND the top-decile-notional prints skewed the same way. Direction of confirmed prints only — never a forecast.1D0.0%1D return0.0%Change in the headline market price against the close 1 observed bar back. Bars exist only for days this card actually traded, so the span can be longer than the label's calendar reading.7D+1.6%7D return+1.6%Change in the headline market price against the close 7 observed bars back. Bars exist only for days this card actually traded, so the span can be longer than the label's calendar reading.30D—30D return—No bar 30 observations back, so there is nothing to measure against — an absence, not a flat market.As of 20:53ZAs of 20:53ZThe market price, its 1D/7D/30D returns, the order book, the For Sale counts and today’s price bar as they stood when this page was built. The page itself is served from a shared cache, so this stamp — not the moment you loaded it — is how old these numbers are. Your browser re-reads them a moment after the page arrives and this line follows.
Mkt Price
$20.00item·0.0%
Last $21.86 · 8h
Mkt Price$20.00 itemMedian item price of the day’s confirmed prints — item basis, not delivered. It is the basis TCGplayer’s own market guide and every wall tile are quoted on; the chart’s DELIVERED toggle re-quotes the same prints with their required shipping in. Last confirmed fixed-price sale: $21.86 at 2026-10-13T11:55:34.353Z. Shipping was free, so delivered is the same number. One trade, not a statistic — the figure above it is the day's median.
Fair Value
$21.81delivered
≈$21.06 item · Band $20.37–$23.25
Fair Value$21.81 deliveredBand is ±6.6% of the point estimate: 2 of 4 components available (excluded: trend anchor — diverges from the others, auction clearing — 35% of weight reweighted away, 18% confidence penalty), on 623 observation(s) in the trailing 30d. Thin samples and missing components widen the band 1.35x over the raw component spread. Prints are weighted with a 3d half-life; it is clearing at $21.32 delivered over the last 48h (27.2 effective units). A weighted blend of independent estimates, quoted DELIVERED — item plus required shipping — where Mkt Price beside it may be item basis. Read the band, not the point: its width is the model's own confidence. On the ITEM basis TCGplayer’s guide is quoted on, that is about $21.06 — this card’s own prints carry a median delivered-minus-item wedge of $0.75, measured day by day, never an assumed postage rate. Clears at $21.32 delivered · last 48h. The delivered, time-decayed VWAP of confirmed prints over the last 48h, 27.2 effective units behind it. The blended fair value is read against it — a delivered ask is not called undervalued until it sits below what the card actually clears for.
Liquidity
98/100
Good liquidity
Liquidity98 /100How easily a position clears, scored 0–100. Four readings, equally weighted, each independently nullable: trade rate (the chance it trades today, from 30d units sold), trade breadth (how many of the last 30 days carried a trade), queue clearance (30d units sold against the units on the board) and seller dispersion (how many different people are selling it). A reading nobody can measure is absent and the rest reweight — never filled in with a zero.
30D Vol
1,053units
units · 28d so far
30D Vol1,053 units1053 units over the last 28 days, on TCGplayer. Newest reading Oct 13, 2026. No earlier 30-day window to compare against.
For Sale
57units
53 sellers
For Sale57 unitsEvery active fixed-price ask with a known delivered price. Auctions are a separate market and are never counted here.
Graded PopN/A
Graded PopN/AEvery slab reported by every grader we hold a census for, pooled. A share of what was submitted and kept — not the odds a copy grades 10.
No live auction bids — this market has no resting bid book.
Cross-Market BasisAsks are live fixed-price listings at delivered prices (item + required shipping). No bid side exists: this market has no resting bid book. There are no live auction bids and no published buylist for this instrument, so the bid side is empty rather than synthesized from asks, price history or a spread assumption.——
AskSize
Ask sideLive fixed-price listings, priced DELIVERED — item plus required shipping. Cheapest first; a listing whose shipping is unknown has no delivered price and is excluded rather than guessed at.
$19.992
$19.99 · 2 units2 cum.Ask size at this price, and the running total through it from the cheapest ask — 2 units are buyable at or under $19.99 delivered. The shaded staircase behind the row IS that running total.
$20.002
$20.00 · 2 units4 cum.Ask size at this price, and the running total through it from the cheapest ask — 4 units are buyable at or under $20.00 delivered. The shaded staircase behind the row IS that running total.
$21.101
$21.10 · 1 unit5 cum.Ask size at this price, and the running total through it from the cheapest ask — 5 units are buyable at or under $21.10 delivered. The shaded staircase behind the row IS that running total.
Ask depth$1,639.43Ask depth$1,639.43Every live fixed-price ask summed at its DELIVERED price — what clearing the whole visible book would cost. There is no bid side to set it against: no auction has a bid on it and no buylist quotes this instrument, and an absent side is never drawn as a zero.
One candle per UTC day — the finest grain this market recordsOne candle per ISO week (Mon–Sun), rolled up from the daily barsOne candle per calendar month, rolled up from the daily barsitem — the sale price alone, excluding shipping. This is the basis TCGplayer’s own market guide is published on, and the basis every wall tile, screener row and watchlist quote uses, so it is what the headline compares against.delivered — item + required shipping, the basis every alarm, floor and fair value uses. A print whose shipping the venue never stated has no delivered price and is excluded from the bar rather than counted at its item price; a day with no priced print falls back to the guide, which is an item price and says so.
How each period is drawn. Candles and bars show the full observed open/high/low/close; line and area show the close alone. The DATA does not change with the mark.
Price scale (linear, log or percent), auto-scaling, and the note on exactly how these bars were built.
Expand the chart to the whole viewport. Same bars and same drawings — only the room they get changes.
Cursor — chart crosshair, pan and zoomTrend line — two pointsHorizontal line — one click, priced at the axisRay — two points, extended forwardZone — two cornersFibonacci retracement — anchor the move, start to endNote — click, then typeMeasure — drag for change, percent and barsMagnet — snap each new anchor to the nearest bar's open, high, low or close, so a line lands on an observation rather than between two of them.Nothing to clear — there are no drawings on this card.DRW
Fair valueUNDERVALUEDThe cheapest delivered ask sits more than 5% below the blended fair-value estimate (FAIR_VALUE_AT_FAIR_TOLERANCE_PCT).
Fair value $21.81 delivered, about $21.06 on the item basis; the cheapest delivered ask is 8.3% below it$21.81delivered-8.3%The cheapest delivered ask ($19.99) against the blended fair-value estimate.top 31%top 31% of 6,088 tracked on FV gap · Ranked against every tracked card as of Oct 13, 2026; the number above is live.
Clears at $21.32 delivered · last 48h
The delivered, time-decayed VWAP of confirmed prints over the last 48h, 27.2 effective units behind it. The blended fair value is read against it — a delivered ask is not called undervalued until it sits below what the card actually clears for.
Chase
—No pack priceThe pull rate is in hand, but no sealed product from this set carries a price we can divide into a per-pack cost — so the cost of ripping cannot be stated.
1 in 10 packs for none, shared by 30 cards in 30th Classic Collection — but we track no sealed product for 30th Classic Collection, so a pack has no price to divide the odds into.
Breakdown
RarityNoneRarityNoneThe provider's own spelling, verbatim. The odds row and this printing have to carry the same string or no estimate is made — a mismatch must produce nothing rather than another rarity's rate.Slot odds1 in 10 packs
Supply
▲Tight supply57 listed units against a 37.6/day pace is 1.5 days of stock. Under 7d reads tight, 30d or more reads heavy.
57 units listed across 53 sellers — 1.5d of stock at the 30-day pace of 37.6/day.
Listed · 53 sellers · $1,639.4357 unitsActive fixed-price asks with a known delivered price. Auctions are a separate market and never enter this count.Sold · 28d · 37.6/day1,053 unitsUnits over the last 28 days, on TCGplayer. Newest reading 2026-10-13.
ScarcityScarceA named card at this rarity takes 1 in 306 packs on average, which is the middle fifth of every card we hold pack odds for. The bands are the card-weighted quintiles of that population, not thresholds we picked.
1 in 306 packs for one copy of this card1 in 306packs
Half of all openers get one within 212 packs
Method▾
P(this card, per pack) = the published odds of its RARITY appearing, split evenly across the cards printed at that rarity in the set; the figure shown is 1/p, the mean number of packs to one copy. The ladder plots every tier of the set on a logarithmic scale, because a set spans two orders of magnitude between its commonest hit and its hardest and a linear scale would pin all but one of them to the same end.
The Pokémon Company has never published physical booster odds in any region — the only official drop-rate page covers the digital TCG Live packs and lists no probabilities at all. This figure is a hand-entered citation of a published pack-opening study of this set.
Competitive play▼Not Standard-legalPublished as not legal in Standard, and in none of the 22,383 Standard decklists in the last 30 days.
Not legal in Standard, and in none of the 22,383 Standard decklists across 338 events, last 30 days.
Player floor$0.20The cheapest currently-priced Standard-legal print of this card: Pikachu, Temporal Forces. What it costs to put the card in a deck, which is not the same question as what THIS print is worth.Premium over floor100×This printing's headline price ($20.00) against the player floor ($0.20). What a player pays for THIS art rather than for the cheapest legal copy of the same card.
Why It's Moving
What changedWhat changedThe observable that moved, stated before any reason for it — the fact the rest of this panel has to account for.
Sold median moved +1.6% over the trailing 7 days and +0.0% over 30 days, last printing at $20.00. Active TCGplayer listings fell 0% over the same 7 days to 0.
Primary explanationPrimary explanationThe reading the evidence best supports. It is an explanation, never a forecast, and it is only as good as the Evidence row two lines down.
Primary read: Liquidity scored 98/100 (composite weight 61%). — the largest single contributor to the current FLOOR_FORMING regime read.
AlternativeAlternativeA competing explanation the SAME evidence would also support. It is printed even when the primary looks strong: an explanation with no stated alternative is a story, not an analysis.
Alternative explanation: Data quality scored 70/100 (composite weight 39%).. With 53 distinct sellers/observations in the trailing window, either read is defensible — this is not a high-conviction single-cause move.
EvidenceEvidenceWhat kind of fact this row is. A completed sale, a live ask and a calculated guide price are three different weights of evidence about the same number, and this column is the difference between them.
ObservedObservedThe day the fact was read — not the day the underlying event happened, and not today. An old date is an old reading.
AgeAgeHow long ago this row was read, as of the moment the page was computed.
ConfidenceConfidenceHow much weight this row carries where it feeds a model, from the resolver that matched it. Lower means a looser match or a thinner source, and a low-confidence row is reweighted rather than dropped.
ModelledModelledYes = a CALCULATED value (a guide price, an estimate); No = something actually observed (a sale, a listing, a census count). A modelled row is evidence about a model, not about the market.
—
9—
8—
$19.99Market price$19.99What the market is actually asking right now — the cheapest delivered price, or the newest confirmed print when no ladder exists. The card’s verdict is where this line falls against the band.$21.81Fair value$21.81The blend’s point estimate — the weighted centre of the four component reads listed below. It is the middle of a band, not a target: read the band’s width before the point.
$20.37The bottom of the stated fair-value band — the cheap end of the blend, not a floor and not a support level. A wider band is the model saying it is less sure, so the two ends are more informative together than the point between them.$23.25The top of the stated fair-value band — the rich end of the blend, not a ceiling and not a target. A wider band is the model saying it is less sure, so the two ends are more informative together than the point between them.
Sales VWAP$22.6362%Sales VWAP$22.63Time-decayed, unit-weighted mean delivered price of confirmed prints — the last 48h dominate.Weight 62% of the blend, after reweighting away the inputs with no evidence.Depth clearing$20.4938%Depth clearing$20.49VWAP of the cheapest tranche of the live delivered-ask ladder — the price at which real fixed-price supply actually clears.Weight 38% of the blend, after reweighting away the inputs with no evidence.Trend anchor$25.090%Trend anchor$25.09Sits further from the decayed print VWAP than one print-dispersion unit — a trailing average of a price the market has left behind, reweighted away.Weight 0% of the blend, after reweighting away the inputs with no evidence.Auction clearingN/A—Auction clearingN/AUnavailable in the trailing 30d window — reweighted away, not defaulted.No evidence for this input, so it carries no weight — the blend is the other components, reweighted.
≈$21.06 item basis · ±6.6% band · 3 of 4 inputs · 623 obs / 30dBand is ±6.6% of the point estimate: 2 of 4 components available (excluded: trend anchor — diverges from the others, auction clearing — 35% of weight reweighted away, 18% confidence penalty), on 623 observation(s) in the trailing 30d. Thin samples and missing components widen the band 1.35x over the raw component spread. Prints are weighted with a 3d half-life; it is clearing at $21.32 delivered over the last 48h (27.2 effective units).
›8.3% under fair — buy at $19.49 delivered.
Market safety
▼Low riskOrdinary trading absorbs a spike here inside a week — less than 7 days of this card's own turnover — and taking control needs more than one ordinary order.
$763.62 clears the cheap side — 0.8 days of turnover (0.06 book-months, 54 asks).
Book
10%·$189.04·$22.04 ask+10%Sweeping 10% of the visible book costs $189.04The next unbought ask after that sweep sits at $22.04 ask — +10% against today's cheapest.Visible asks only, at delivered prices. An unshipped listing has no delivered price and is not in this ladder.50%·$823.62·$30.00 ask+50%Sweeping 50% of the visible book costs $823.62The next unbought ask after that sweep sits at $30.00 ask — +50% against today's cheapest.Visible asks only, at delivered prices. An unshipped listing has no delivered price and is not in this ladder.80%·$1,340·$34.98 ask+75%Sweeping 80% of the visible book costs $1,340The next unbought ask after that sweep sits at $34.98 ask — +75% against today's cheapest.Visible asks only, at delivered prices. An unshipped listing has no delivered price and is not in this ladder.Book $1,639Total notional on the visible ask ladder, and the largest single seller's share of it. A book that is mostly one seller's inventory is one decision away from moving.Best ask vs fair · $19.99 vs $21.81-8.3%Best ask vs fair-8.3%$19.99 vs $21.81
Mechanics▾
Cost to +50%$763.62
clears every ask under +50% of the last trade
Days to absorb0.8
31 units to control
Book notional$1,639
57 units · 1 level
Book / 30d sold0.06x
30d traded $27,265
VenuesTCGplayer
The absorption ladder walks the visible delivered-price ask book cheapest-first: what each slice of the book costs, the ask it leaves marginal, and how far that sits from the last price the card actually traded at. Manipulation risk is the worse of two reads — how many days of this card’s own turnover it would take to absorb the cost of control, and whether the whole buyable book fits inside a single ordinary order.
Flow
—Thin tapeToo little sold-unit evidence to read a pace from — see the note below.
—
Insufficient data
Only 28 days of sold history — a full 30-day window is needed to read a pace.
Method▾
Daily units are the venue's own sold-quantity history, expanded off each bucket's real span, plus confirmed prints from the other side of the market. Prints come from the live sales tape at delivered prices. The floor is the cheapest delivered ask (item + required shipping) across venues — the same one FAIR VALUE prices against.
Over 30d: 623 confirmed print(s) (5 with no contemporaneous ask reference, excluded from net flow); net flow +$10341.46 across 501 buy-side vs 140 sell-side unit(s); large prints (>= $34.00) were 16% of notional and skewed buy-side -> ACCUMULATING.
Bottom line
—Hold64/100 on the weighted composite: at or above 65 is a buy, at or below 35 a sell, and everything between is a hold.
64/100 across 6 of 11 inputs. For: liquidity reads 98/100. Against: the book moved +100.0% over 26.9d.
Liquidity98Liquidity98/100Four equally-weighted readings of what counterparties did: the chance it trades today, how many of the last 30 days carried a trade, 30-day units sold against the units on the board, and how many different people are selling it. A reading nobody can measure is absent and the rest reweight.Carries 9% of the composite.Value vs fair67Value vs fair67/100The cheapest delivered ask against the blended fair-value estimate, two points per percent. Above 50 the card is trading under what the evidence says it is worth. Withheld entirely when fair value declares itself UNKNOWN — a discount measured against an untrustworthy anchor is not a discount.Carries 17% of the composite.Manipulation risk20Manipulation risk20/100RISK-ORIENTED. What it costs to walk the visible book up 50%, against both real trailing volume and one buyer’s cheque book. High here is bad, and it enters the composite inverted.Carries 9% of the composite, inverted: 20 risk entered as 80.Book pressure30Book pressure30/100Supply leaving the market or refilling it. Prefers the 30-day inventory change; falls back to the venue's own listing count over the readings held, capped tighter because a shorter window is weaker evidence. Withheld on a count that never moves, or on a book so small that one listing's arrival pins the percent to a rail.Carries 11% of the composite.Money flow67Money flow67/100Confirmed prints split into buy-side and sell-side against the prevailing ask, on a log scale — one decade of imbalance earns the full swing, because 100:1 is a thinner sample saying what 10:1 already said.Carries 11% of the composite.Scarcity46Scarcity46/100How few of this card exist, as a percentile of every card we can read. Prefers PRINT SCARCITY’s estimate — graded population with the value confound divided out, turned into a print scale by the pull rate — and falls back to packs-per-copy alone where that cannot be read. Scarce is oriented as GOOD, on the theory that thinner supply supports a price. Weighted low on purpose: scarcity is fixed at print and the market has had years to price it in, so this is a structural prior rather than an edge.Carries 7% of the composite.
Liquidity9%98Four equally-weighted readings of what counterparties did: the chance it trades today, how many of the last 30 days carried a trade, 30-day units sold against the units on the board, and how many different people are selling it. A reading nobody can measure is absent and the rest reweight.Value vs fair17%67The cheapest delivered ask against the blended fair-value estimate, two points per percent. Above 50 the card is trading under what the evidence says it is worth. Withheld entirely when fair value declares itself UNKNOWN — a discount measured against an untrustworthy anchor is not a discount.Manipulation risk9%20RISK-ORIENTED. What it costs to walk the visible book up 50%, against both real trailing volume and one buyer’s cheque book. High here is bad, and it enters the composite inverted.Book pressure11%30Supply leaving the market or refilling it. Prefers the 30-day inventory change; falls back to the venue's own listing count over the readings held, capped tighter because a shorter window is weaker evidence. Withheld on a count that never moves, or on a book so small that one listing's arrival pins the percent to a rail.
Slot odds1 in 10 packstcgtalk — 64 hits in 652 packs. Measured Sep 22, 2026, 21d before this reading. 64 of 652 counted packs (1 in 10.2). @Tommy13 observed 1 in 9.6 over 4,063 packs. Community measurement, not official odds: nobody publishes physical pack rates.
Cards at rarity30 in 30th Classic CollectionCards at rarity30 in 30th Classic CollectionCounted from the catalog: 30 printings in 30th Classic Collection carry the rarity "None".
This card1 in 306 packs±30%This card1 in 306 packsThe rarity’s measured odds, split evenly across the 30 cards printed at it. That even split is the estimate's weakest link, and it is bounded rather than hand-waved: a published 8,000-pack study put two Special Illustration Rares from one set at 1 in 309 and 1 in 393 packs — same rarity, same set — so a per-card figure is good to about ±30%.
Method▾
P(this card, per pack) = the published odds of its RARITY appearing, split evenly across the cards printed at that rarity in the set. Expected packs is 1/p, the mean of the geometric distribution. The range plots expected pack spend ÷ the single's delivered price on a log axis centred on parity. Pack price is a sealed product's own price divided by its stated pack count, and is computed only where that count carries a source. The single is the cheapest delivered ask (item + required shipping) across venues — the same figure FAIR VALUE prices against.
The Pokémon Company has never published physical booster odds in any region — the only official drop-rate page covers the digital TCG Live packs and lists no probabilities at all. Every figure here is a hand-entered citation of a published pack-opening study, and each one names its source and sample on hover.
Absorption
—Building historyToo few readings of the book to tell a drawdown from noise. The count is on the card — see the note below.
28 readings of this book so far, one per 1 day, over 27d. The direction reads once there are enough of them to tell a drawdown from noise.
Method▾
Each reading takes the venue's own listing count for this card in this condition — the whole book — at that instant. The direction is classified by the platform's absorption reading over that series: a book drawn down with demand behind it reads as accumulation, one that refills after a drawdown reads as distribution. Copies and sellers come from the cheapest asks we sample, not from the book, and are labelled as such. Sold units are confirmed prints from the live tape over the same span, and are shown only when the tape reaches back past the first reading.
The direction is classified over the platform-standard 30-day trailing window. That window is a scope, not a history: it contains exactly the readings counted on this card and no others — and only readings that counted the venue’s own book, never a sampled one trended against a counted one.
•Too new to readGraded population climbs for about a year after a set releases and then levels off, so a set inside that ramp looks lightly printed purely because nobody has sent its cards in yet. 30th Classic Collection is 0 months old. We hold the read until 12 months.
Graded population climbs for about a year after a set releases and then levels off, so a set inside that ramp looks lightly printed purely because nobody has sent its cards in yet. 30th Classic Collection is 0 months old. We hold the read until 12 months.
LightModerateHeavy
Model inputs
Packs per copy1 in 306Packs per copy1 in 306How many packs it takes to see one named copy of this card — the same figure SCARCITY leads with. It is what converts a set-wide print scale into this card’s own.
Method▾
Graded population is print run × how often anyone bothers grading it, and the second factor moves with VALUE — so population is divided by price^0.606, the elasticity fitted across 3,826 cards that carry a population, a price and a pull rate at once. That normalised count is turned into a SET pack scale using the card’s pull rate (every card in a set is an independent read on how many packs exist, pooled by median), then brought back down to this card by its own pull rate. The band is a tertile of the result across every card that clears the gates.
Nobody has ever published a Pokémon print run, and this does not recover one — it is an ORDER, not a count. It reads surviving graded supply across PSA, CGC and ACE, so ungraded and sealed stock are invisible to it. What it is checked against: the model puts Black & White at the bottom of the catalog and modern Scarlet & Violet at the top, which is where the smallest and largest print runs actually are.
Languages
EN
30d sold
1,053 units
Units of THIS printing sold in the 30 days ending October 13, 2026, against the 30 days before that (0). Demand at a table and demand in the market are different measurements; this is the second one.
Meta vs priceNot enough history (1 week)Spearman rank correlation of weekly share against weekly median price over the trailing 26 weeks, on the weeks carrying both. Printed only at 8 weeks or more; below that the count is stated instead of a coefficient off a handful of readings.
Meta share · % of Standard decklists (right axis)Median price · this print, $ (left axis)Units sold per day (bars)
Does the meta move the price? Share of Standard decklists running this card against this print's median sale price and units sold, day by day; the rank correlation above is printed once 8 weeks exist.
94.5% of card lines in these decklists matched a card in our catalog; an unmatched line is never counted. Online events only, not Regionals or Worlds. Tournament results →
Card text▾
HP40
TypesLightning
StageBasic
AttacksC Gnaw · 10Cost: ColorlessLC Thunder Jolt · 30Cost: Lightning · ColorlessFlip a coin. If tails, Pikachu does 10 damage to itself.
WeaknessFighting ×2
Retreat1
LegalStandard ✗not legal · Expanded ✓legal
EvidenceEvidenceThe specific observations the explanation rests on. If this row is thin, treat the explanation as thin — it is the only thing holding it up.
Evidence: item-basis daily bars, TCGplayer active listings, absorption read ("Over 30d: inventory +100.0%, cheap depth no data, sales velocity no data -> NEUTRAL.").
ConfidenceConfidenceHow much weight to put on the primary explanation, given how much of the evidence actually resolved. It qualifies the row above; it never adds to it.
Confidence: 30% (floor-confidence 51/100), based on 28 days of observations.
What would disprove itWhat would disprove itThe observation that would break the primary explanation. It is what makes the reading falsifiable rather than unfalsifiable — and it is the thing to watch for next.
This read would be wrong if active listings rebound above 0 while sold median keeps falling.
CatalogCard identity: set, number, rarity, finish, release date. It dates from the printing itself, so an old reading here is expected and is not staleness.
Sep 16, 2026
28d
98%
No
Live askA copy offered for sale right now. An ask is what a seller wants, not what anyone paid — it bounds the price from above until it clears.
Oct 13, 2026
4h
90%
No
Price statisticAn observed figure computed over several rows rather than one print — a delivered floor, a published median over a window.
Oct 13, 2026
4h
90%
No
Confirmed saleA completed transaction at a known price — the strongest evidence on this page. Prices are delivered (item + required shipping).
Oct 13, 2026
9h
85%
No
Inventory countHow many copies and listings stand on the book. What depth, supply and absorption are measured against.
Oct 13, 2026
4h
70%
No
Guide priceA calculated market guide — a model of where the product is trading. Never a confirmed sale, and always marked Modelled.
Oct 13, 2026
21h
60%
Yes
Raw · Holo · Near MintWhat every row above was gathered for — one printing, in this one finish and condition or grade. Change either switcher in the header and you are reading a different one; the page's own URL is the address of exactly this one.pq-quant-2026.10.0The version of the scoring and analytics formulas that produced everything on this page. Two figures computed under different versions are not comparable, which is why the version is stated rather than assumed.
Money flow11%67Confirmed prints split into buy-side and sell-side against the prevailing ask, on a log scale — one decade of imbalance earns the full swing, because 100:1 is a thinner sample saying what 10:1 already said.
Scarcity7%46How few of this card exist, as a percentile of every card we can read. Prefers PRINT SCARCITY’s estimate — graded population with the value confound divided out, turned into a print scale by the pull rate — and falls back to packs-per-copy alone where that cannot be read. Scarce is oriented as GOOD, on the theory that thinner supply supports a price. Weighted low on purpose: scarcity is fixed at print and the market has had years to price it in, so this is a structural prior rather than an edge.
Price trend13%no readingNo price history in the 7- and 30-day windows, or no confirmed print in 30 days — the line is the relay’s guide.
Relative strength7%no readingThe wall projection has ranked fewer than 20 cards on 30-day return, so a percentile here would be a rank of a handful dressed up as a market.
Grading upside6%no readingNo priced grade outcomes, so expected return is unknown.
Seller concentration5%no readingThe venue attributes no seller identity to these asks.
Reprint risk5%no readingPrint status is unestablished — no shelf observation and no recorded reprint event.
The bottom line is a weighted mean of the signals that reported, renormalised so their weights sum to 1. Nothing defaults to a neutral 50: an input with no evidence is reweighted away and its absence is charged as a confidence penalty. Risk rows (manipulation, concentration, reprint) enter inverted. Data quality carries no weight at all — it decides whether the verdict may be spoken, because knowing a lot about a card is not a reason to buy it. Competitive meta sits OUTSIDE the weighted mean as a capped bonus added after it: a card nobody plays is never marked down for that, and a card the meta is built on can be marked up for it.