$2.63, the modelled guide price, as of February 6, 2026.
Its printed rarity is ★★★.
Heliolisk (光电伞蜥) (#1907) is from Gem Pack Vol.4 (宝石包 VOL.4), released February 6, 2026.
A PSA 10 trades at about 11.4x the raw price, $29.88 against $2.63 raw, as of February 6, 2026.
and
modelled guide
units · vs prior 30d
live delivered asks
Gem Pack Vol.4 (宝石包 VOL.4)Three gem stars is the top of the ladder in Gem Pack Vol.4, a mainland-only product, and that tier is what turns Heliolisk from a niche Kalos lizard
as of Oct 24, 2026 · UTC
history since Jul 2026
Heliolisk (光电伞蜥) — 1907 · 1DMkt$2.630.0%guide price · monthlyitem price
Vol — sold·0 prints·1 obssingle obs — no range
Insufficient data
No fair value is published for this card — no confirmed print or completed auction in 30 days — an estimate built from live asks alone would be a restatement of the book.
Nothing is listed for sale, so there is no book for one buyer to move.
0 units listed — 0.0d of stock at the 30-day pace of 0.3/day.
A PSA 10 is worth $29.88 — 11.4× the $2.63 raw modelled guide price.
Dearest slab per grading company
PSA 10Graded population climbs for about a year after a set releases and then levels off, so a set inside that ramp looks lightly printed purely because nobody has sent its cards in yet. this set is 8 months old. We hold the read until 12 months.
Graded population is print run × how often anyone bothers grading it, and the second factor moves with VALUE — so population is divided by price^0.606, the elasticity fitted across 3,826 cards that carry a population, a price and a pull rate at once. That normalised count is turned into a SET pack scale using the card’s pull rate (every card in a set is an independent read on how many packs exist, pooled by median), then brought back down to this card by its own pull rate. The band is a tertile of the result across every card that clears the gates.
Nobody has ever published a Pokémon print run, and this does not recover one — it is an ORDER, not a count. It reads surviving graded supply across PSA, CGC and ACE, so ungraded and sealed stock are invisible to it. What it is checked against: the model puts Black & White at the bottom of the catalog and modern Scarlet & Violet at the top, which is where the smallest and largest print runs actually are.
| EvidenceEvidenceWhat kind of fact this row is. A completed sale, a live ask and a calculated guide price are three different weights of evidence about the same number, and this column is the difference between them. | ObservedObservedThe day the fact was read — not the day the underlying event happened, and not today. An old date is an old reading. | AgeAgeHow long ago this row was read, as of the moment the page was computed. | ConfidenceConfidenceHow much weight this row carries where it feeds a model, from the resolver that matched it. Lower means a looser match or a thinner source, and a low-confidence row is reweighted rather than dropped. | ModelledModelledYes = a CALCULATED value (a guide price, an estimate); No = something actually observed (a sale, a listing, a census count). A modelled row is evidence about a model, not about the market. |
|---|
No signal reported, so there is nothing to add up yet. That is under half the model, so no call is made on it.
Not reading yet: value vs fair, price trend, money flow, book pressure, liquidity, relative strength, grading upside, manipulation risk, seller concentration, reprint risk, scarcity.
The bottom line is a weighted mean of the signals that reported, renormalised so their weights sum to 1. Nothing defaults to a neutral 50: an input with no evidence is reweighted away and its absence is charged as a confidence penalty. Risk rows (manipulation, concentration, reprint) enter inverted. Data quality carries no weight at all — it decides whether the verdict may be spoken, because knowing a lot about a card is not a reason to buy it. Competitive meta sits OUTSIDE the weighted mean as a capped bonus added after it: a card nobody plays is never marked down for that, and a card the meta is built on can be marked up for it.
Best on PSA: No PSA population total for this printing, so P(10) has no honest denominator.
| VendorVendorThe grading company, one row each. Rows are the graders we hold both a fee schedule and a population census for — a grader we cannot price is left out rather than estimated. | FeeFeeThe all-in submission cost per card at this grader: grading tier plus shipping both ways and insurance, as published. A † marks a fee we could not read from a published schedule and had to carry from a prior reading. Lower is better. | P(10)P(10)The share of this card’s submissions to this grader that came back a 10, from its own population census. It is what WAS submitted and kept, not the odds your particular copy grades — a card people only submit when it looks perfect reads high here for that reason alone. | 10 price10 priceWhat a 10 from this grader actually sells for. The superscript says what kind of evidence that is — a sale, an unsold listing, or the provider’s own modelled guide. | ROI(10)ROI(10)Return if the card grades a 10 and sells at that price: (10 price − raw price − fee) over what you put in. The BEST case, before any probability is applied. Higher is better. | Risk-wtdRisk-wtdThe same return weighted by the odds of each grade, not just the 10 — the number to compare graders on, because a high P(10) at a high fee can lose to a lower one. A leading ≈ means the full grade distribution was unavailable and a coarser method stood in. Higher is better. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSA | $59.99PSA Standard — the cheapest tier accepting single-card submissions, read 2026-10-06. Cheaper tiers you cannot use today: Value Bulk $24.99, Value $32.99. | —The share of this card’s submissions to this grader that came back a 10, from its own population census. It is what WAS submitted and kept, not the odds your particular copy grades — a card people only submit when it looks perfect reads high here for that reason alone. | $29.88$29.88. What a 10 from this grader actually sells for. The superscript says what kind of evidence that is — a sale, an unsold listing, or the provider’s own modelled guide. | -70%-$61.70 on a $87.62 cost basis. | —Risk-weighted ROI withheld: no PSA population total, so P(10) has no honest denominator. |
$2.63 raw (modelled guide price) + $59.99 PSA Standard + $25.00 ship/ins = $87.62 · less 13.25% sale fee · 45d lockup
| CatalogCard identity: set, number, rarity, finish, release date. It dates from the printing itself, so an old reading here is expected and is not staleness. | Feb 6, 2026 | 261d | 98% | No |
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