The vendor's catalog photograph of XY BREAKthrough Booster Box. It identifies the product; it is not evidence of condition, of what is inside, or of any price on this page.Product type, set and release date, chase cards, price history and how it compares with the XY era.
The XY BREAKthrough Booster Box is a sealed booster box for BREAKthrough, an expansion from the XY era of the English-language Pokémon TCG, released on November 4, 2015. A booster box is the standard way to open packs of a set in volume, and this one is aimed at exactly that. BREAKthrough is also where BREAK evolution cards, a mechanic of the XY era, first appeared. The set has 34 sealed products in all, and the booster box sits at the top of that range for price, a point covered under the comparison below.
BREAKthrough is opened mainly for Mewtwo EX. The two highest-valued cards are both Secret Rare Mewtwo EX, followed by two Ultra Rare M Mewtwo EX cards and a regular Ultra Rare Mewtwo EX in fifth. The set carries 26 chase-tier cards and 3 secret rares beyond its official count of 162, and the top five cards account for 56 percent of the set's total card value, so a few Mewtwo cards drive most of it. Packs from the XY BREAKthrough Booster Box can yield these cards.
Written from market data as of October 24, 2026; the tables update live.
Among the eight XY-era booster boxes tracked, the XY BREAKthrough Booster Box ranks 5th by price and sits at about 0.9 times the era median. The previous set's XY Roaring Skies Booster Box is priced higher, while the next set's XY Fates Collide Booster Box is priced lower. Within BREAKthrough's own line, this booster box ranks 1st by price of seven priced products, ahead of the set's Elite Trainer Box, Premium Collection and decks.
| Measure | This productXY BREAKthrough Booster Box | Median of 8 booster boxesXY median | Previous setXY Roaring Skies Booster Box | Next setXY Fates Collide Booster Box |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Set | BREAKthrough | — | Roaring Skies | Fates Collide |
$3,238.35, the venue's modelled guide price, not a confirmed sale, as of October 27, 2026.
XY BREAKthrough Booster Box is from BREAKthrough.
We don't currently track retail stock for XY BREAKthrough Booster Box, which is not the same as it being sold out.
| Release date | Nov 4, 2015 | — | May 6, 2015 | May 2, 2016 |
|---|
| Price | $3,238.35 | $3,652.51 | $4,849.70 | $2,754.99 |
|---|
guide · modelled
units · 1d so far
as of Oct 29, 2026 · UTC
XY BREAKthrough Booster Box · 1DMkt$3238.350.0%guide priceitem price
Vol — sold·0 prints·1 obssingle obs — no range
collector thesis · 180-720d horizon · 59% confidence on 20/100 data quality
Scenarios
ILLIQUID_UNKNOWN persists near current levels (non-probabilistic range -- data quality too thin to assign probabilities).rangeBASE · rangeILLIQUID_UNKNOWN persists near current levels (non-probabilistic range -- data quality too thin to assign probabilities).Evidence corroborates faster than expected, accelerating the thesis (non-probabilistic range).rangeBULL · rangeEvidence corroborates faster than expected, accelerating the thesis (non-probabilistic range).Evidence reverses sooner than expected, invalidating the thesis (non-probabilistic range).rangeBEAR · rangeEvidence reverses sooner than expected, invalidating the thesis (non-probabilistic range).Catalysts
Risks
Invalidation
The strongest case against this thesis: Liquidity scored 17/100 (composite weight 38%).
Model pq-quant-2026.10.0, as of 2026-10-27.
Research classification generated from observable market data with stated confidence and assumptions. Not personalized financial advice.
No published pack count for this product, so its price cannot be put on a per-pack footing.
The dearest of the 7 priced sealed products in BREAKthrough.
Withheld — 6 of the 9 inputs have no sealed evidence, so there is nothing honest to blend.
On file: 2 asks · 3 sales · 93 daily guide points · 137 stock readings.
| EvidenceEvidenceWhat kind of fact this row is. A completed sale, a live ask and a calculated guide price are three different weights of evidence about the same number, and this column is the difference between them. | ObservedObservedThe day the fact was read — not the day the underlying event happened, and not today. An old date is an old reading. | AgeAgeHow long ago this row was read, as of the moment the page was computed. | ConfidenceConfidenceHow much weight this row carries where it feeds a model, from the resolver that matched it. Lower means a looser match or a thinner source, and a low-confidence row is reweighted rather than dropped. | ModelledModelledYes = a CALCULATED value (a guide price, an estimate); No = something actually observed (a sale, a listing, a census count). A modelled row is evidence about a model, not about the market. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Live askA copy offered for sale right now. An ask is what a seller wants, not what anyone paid — it bounds the price from above until it clears. | Oct 27, 2026 | 3d | 90% | No |
| Price statisticAn observed figure computed over several rows rather than one print — a delivered floor, a published median over a window. | Oct 27, 2026 | 3d | 90% | No |
| Guide priceA calculated market guide — a model of where the product is trading. Never a confirmed sale, and always marked Modelled. | Oct 29, 2026 | 1d | 90% | Yes |
| Confirmed saleA completed transaction at a known price — the strongest evidence on this page. Prices are delivered (item + required shipping). | Oct 2, 2026 | 28d | 85% | No |
Every price is that product’s newest stored daily bar, picked by the same precedence the chart above uses — a real observed sale beats a modelled guide, and the guide stands in only on days with no sale. Per-pack divides by the PUBLISHED pack count and is withheld wherever that count is not on file, because a guessed denominator makes a fabricated price. Products the set has but we cannot price keep their row, with a dash.
6 inputs have no sealed evidence and were reweighted away: price trend, supply tightness, absorption, auction demand, grading reflexivity, reprint / supply risk.
Scored over a 30-day window on a sample of 18, formula pq-quant-2026.10.0. The packet reweighted 6 missing inputs away and applied a 35% confidence penalty for them: priceTrend, supplyTightness, absorption, auctionDemand, gradingReflexivity, reprintSupplyRisk.
| Oct 27, 2026 |
| 3d |
| 70% |
| No |
No retailer is tracked for this product yet, which is not the same as it being sold out.
Cheapest wholesale: $2.44 per pack · Hill's Wholesale Gaming (public wholesale catalogue)
| Distributor | Lot | Lot price | Per pack | Currency | Stock | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hill's Wholesale Gaming (public wholesale catalogue)Pokemon XY BREAKthrough Booster Box | 36 packs | $88.00 | $2.44 | USD | In Stock Now | 2020-02-27Stale · 2437d |
| 401 Games (public Shopify product feed)Pokemon - BREAKthrough Booster Box | Lot · count not stated | CA$599.95 CAD | CA$16.67 CAD | CAD | sold out | 2026-10-30 |
| Face to Face Games (public Shopify product feed) |
A wholesale ask is a distributor’s price for a whole lot — freight, minimums and any trade terms sit behind it — and is not a price a single box trades at. Links go to the distributor’s own page; nothing here is an affiliate link. Per-pack figures divide the lot price by the pack count the distributor published, never by a guessed one.
7 lots listed on 2026-10-30 — higher than 63% of the set's own readings over 45 readings in 90 days.
| Lot · count not stated |
| CA$3,499.99 CAD |
| —The distributor stated no pack count for this lot and none is on file for the matched product, so no per-pack figure can be published. Dividing by a guessed count would be a fabricated price. |
| CAD |
| sold out |
| 2026-10-30 |
More bulk than BREAKthrough has had lately — raw NM singles usually soften before graded ones do.
3 distributors’ public catalogues are a proxy for supply, not the print run.