The vendor's catalog photograph of Detective Pikachu On the Case Figure Collection. It identifies the product; it is not evidence of condition, of what is inside, or of any price on this page.Product type, set and release date, contents, chase cards, price history and how it compares with the Sun & Moon era.
The Detective Pikachu On the Case Figure Collection is a themed collection box from the English-language Pokémon TCG's Detective Pikachu set, a Sun & Moon era expansion released on March 29, 2019. It is built around the movie's title character, pairing a Detective Pikachu figure and foil promo cards with sealed booster packs, so it serves for opening packs as well as display. The Detective Pikachu set has 13 sealed products in total, spanning tins, blisters, booster packs and other sealed items, and this collection is one of them.
The Detective Pikachu On the Case Figure Collection holds four foil promo cards showing Detective Pikachu, Psyduck, Bulbasaur and Snubbull, plus a sculpted Detective Pikachu figure standing on a magnifying glass. It also holds three Detective Pikachu 4-card booster packs, two additional Pokémon TCG booster packs and a code card for the Pokémon Trading Card Game Online.
The Detective Pikachu set is opened for Charizard, an Ultra Rare, followed by Detective Pikachu at Rare, then Ditto, Mewtwo and Greninja, all Ultra Rare. With 18 cards in the official list and four chase-tier cards among them, value is heavily concentrated: the five most valuable cards account for 78 percent of the set's total card value. The three Detective Pikachu booster packs in the On the Case Figure Collection come from this set, so they can yield those cards.
As of October 23, 2026, the Detective Pikachu On the Case Figure Collection is up 39 percent over the past 30 days. Price tracking began in September 2026, and the collection now sits 39 percent above its tracked low from that same month. That puts the current price near the top of its range since tracking started. The figures rest on a modelled market guide, which estimates the market price from available data on days when no sale sets it directly.
Written from market data as of October 24, 2026; the tables update live.
Within its own set, the Detective Pikachu On the Case Figure Collection ranks 2nd by price among 11 priced products, behind only the Detective Pikachu: Charizard GX Special Case File, the highest-priced item in the line. The rest of the lineup is made up of tins, blisters and booster packs, so a second-place rank puts this collection at the upper end of the set's sealed products.
$497.46, the venue's modelled guide price, not a confirmed sale, as of October 30, 2026.
Detective Pikachu On the Case Figure Collection is from Detective Pikachu.
We don't currently track retail stock for Detective Pikachu On the Case Figure Collection, which is not the same as it being sold out.
guide · modelled
units · 1d so far
as of Nov 3, 2026 · UTC
Detective Pikachu On the Case Figure Collection · 1DMkt$497.460.0%guide priceitem price
Vol — sold·0 prints·1 obssingle obs — no range
collector thesis · 180-720d horizon · 65% confidence on 22/100 data quality
Scenarios
ILLIQUID_UNKNOWN persists near current levels (non-probabilistic range -- data quality too thin to assign probabilities).rangeBASE · rangeILLIQUID_UNKNOWN persists near current levels (non-probabilistic range -- data quality too thin to assign probabilities).Evidence corroborates faster than expected, accelerating the thesis (non-probabilistic range).rangeBULL · rangeEvidence corroborates faster than expected, accelerating the thesis (non-probabilistic range).Evidence reverses sooner than expected, invalidating the thesis (non-probabilistic range).rangeBEAR · rangeEvidence reverses sooner than expected, invalidating the thesis (non-probabilistic range).Catalysts
Risks
Invalidation
The strongest case against this thesis: Liquidity scored 11/100 (composite weight 24%).
Model pq-quant-2026.10.0, as of 2026-10-30.
Research classification generated from observable market data with stated confidence and assumptions. Not personalized financial advice.
No published pack count for this product, so its price cannot be put on a per-pack footing.
The dearest of the 11 priced sealed products in Detective Pikachu.
Composite over the 4 inputs that resolved.
On file: 2 asks · 4 sales · 187 daily guide points · 138 stock readings.
| EvidenceEvidenceWhat kind of fact this row is. A completed sale, a live ask and a calculated guide price are three different weights of evidence about the same number, and this column is the difference between them. | ObservedObservedThe day the fact was read — not the day the underlying event happened, and not today. An old date is an old reading. | AgeAgeHow long ago this row was read, as of the moment the page was computed. | ConfidenceConfidenceHow much weight this row carries where it feeds a model, from the resolver that matched it. Lower means a looser match or a thinner source, and a low-confidence row is reweighted rather than dropped. | ModelledModelledYes = a CALCULATED value (a guide price, an estimate); No = something actually observed (a sale, a listing, a census count). A modelled row is evidence about a model, not about the market. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Live askA copy offered for sale right now. An ask is what a seller wants, not what anyone paid — it bounds the price from above until it clears. | Nov 2, 2026 | 2d | 90% | No |
| Price statisticAn observed figure computed over several rows rather than one print — a delivered floor, a published median over a window. | Nov 2, 2026 | 2d | 90% | No |
| Guide priceA calculated market guide — a model of where the product is trading. Never a confirmed sale, and always marked Modelled. | Nov 3, 2026 | 2d | 90% | Yes |
| Confirmed saleA completed transaction at a known price — the strongest evidence on this page. Prices are delivered (item + required shipping). | Oct 20, 2026 | 15d | 85% | No |
Every price is that product’s newest stored daily bar, picked by the same precedence the chart above uses — a real observed sale beats a modelled guide, and the guide stands in only on days with no sale. Per-pack divides by the PUBLISHED pack count and is withheld wherever that count is not on file, because a guessed denominator makes a fabricated price. Products the set has but we cannot price keep their row, with a dash.
5 inputs have no sealed evidence and were reweighted away: supply tightness, absorption, auction demand, grading reflexivity, reprint / supply risk.
Scored over a 30-day window on a sample of 44, formula pq-quant-2026.10.0. The packet reweighted 5 missing inputs away and applied a 28% confidence penalty for them: supplyTightness, absorption, auctionDemand, gradingReflexivity, reprintSupplyRisk.
| Nov 2, 2026 |
| 2d |
| 70% |
| No |
No retailer is tracked for this product yet, which is not the same as it being sold out.
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No wholesale listings seen for this product as of the last catalogue read on 2026-11-04.
No wholesale listings seen for this product as of the last catalogue read on 2026-11-04.
A wholesale ask is a distributor’s price for a whole lot — freight, minimums and any trade terms sit behind it — and is not a price a single box trades at. Links go to the distributor’s own page; nothing here is an affiliate link. Per-pack figures divide the lot price by the pack count the distributor published, never by a guessed one.
1 lot listed on 2026-11-04 — higher than 50% of the set's own readings over 50 readings in 90 days.
Thin on the wholesale shelf: fresh-pack supply is not what is pressuring Detective Pikachu's raw NM singles right now.
One distributor’s public catalogue is a proxy for supply, not the print run.