Faba — 208/214Raw · Holo · Near MintEvery price, print, listing and score on this page belongs to this one printing in this one condition or grade — switch either dropdown and you are looking at a different one.
A different printing of this card — a reverse holo, a promo stamp, another language. Choosing one NAVIGATES: every price, print, listing and score on the page belongs to that printing instead, because they are separate instruments that trade at different prices.The condition or grade being priced. Each one is a separate instrument that trades at its own price, so choosing one replaces every figure on the page. “All conditions” and “All grades” are a union of the siblings — their tape, listings and volume are combined, with one sibling named as the reference for price and analytics.
∅Illiquid / UnknownIlliquid / UnknownThe classifier refused to call one: too little liquidity or too small a sample to test any rule. The absence of a read, never a tenth regime.1D—1D return—No bar 1 observation back, so there is nothing to measure against — an absence, not a flat market.7D—7D return—No bar 7 observations back, so there is nothing to measure against — an absence, not a flat market.30D-2.9%30D return-2.9%Change in the headline market price against the close 30 observed bars back. Bars exist only for days this card actually traded, so the span can be longer than the label's calendar reading.As of 09:30ZAs of 09:30ZThe market price, its 1D/7D/30D returns, the order book, the For Sale counts and today’s price bar as they stood when this page was built. The page itself is served from a shared cache, so this stamp — not the moment you loaded it — is how old these numbers are. Your browser re-reads them a moment after the page arrives and this line follows.
Mkt Price
$11.56item—
Last $12.90 · $17.89 delivered · 18d
Mkt Price$11.56 itemThe venue’s published daily market guide, which the venue itself declares MODELLED. Nothing is confirmed to have traded at it, no copy is listed at it, and it is not our estimate — it is theirs. It is quoted on the ITEM basis — the basis every wall tile is quoted on — and it is what the chart plots on a day with no print of its own. Last confirmed fixed-price sale: $12.90 at 2026-09-24T12:58:34.020Z. Delivered $17.89 with shipping. One trade, not a statistic — the figure above it is the day's median.
Fair ValueN/A
Fair ValueN/ANo fair value is published for this instrument: needs 3 confirmed observations (2 in 30d). The components below show what evidence exists; the estimate they would blend to is withheld rather than quoted. A weighted blend of independent estimates, quoted DELIVERED — item plus required shipping — where Mkt Price beside it may be item basis. Read the band, not the point: its width is the model's own confidence.
Liquidity
29/100
Thin liquidity
Liquidity29 /100How easily a position clears, scored 0–100. Four readings, equally weighted, each independently nullable: trade rate (the chance it trades today, from 30d units sold), trade breadth (how many of the last 30 days carried a trade), queue clearance (30d units sold against the units on the board) and seller dispersion (how many different people are selling it). A reading nobody can measure is absent and the rest reweight — never filled in with a zero.
30D Vol
14units▲+90.9%
units · vs prior 30d
30D Vol14 units14 units over the last 30 days, on TCGplayer and eBay. Newest reading Oct 2, 2026. Against 7 in the 30 days before.
For Sale
36units
30 sellers
For Sale36 unitsEvery active fixed-price ask with a known delivered price. Auctions are a separate market and are never counted here.
Graded Pop
232▲+0.4%
across 3 graders
Graded Pop232Every slab reported by every grader we hold a census for, pooled. A share of what was submitted and kept — not the odds a copy grades 10.
No live auction bids — this market has no resting bid book.
Cross-Market BasisAsks are live fixed-price listings at delivered prices (item + required shipping). No bid side exists: this market has no resting bid book. There are no live auction bids and no published buylist for this instrument, so the bid side is empty rather than synthesized from asks, price history or a spread assumption.——
AskSize
Ask sideLive fixed-price listings, priced DELIVERED — item plus required shipping. Cheapest first; a listing whose shipping is unknown has no delivered price and is excluded rather than guessed at.
$10.481
$10.48 · 1 unit1 cum.Ask size at this price, and the running total through it from the cheapest ask — 1 unit are buyable at or under $10.48 delivered. The shaded staircase behind the row IS that running total.
$11.482
$11.48 · 2 units3 cum.Ask size at this price, and the running total through it from the cheapest ask — 3 units are buyable at or under $11.48 delivered. The shaded staircase behind the row IS that running total.
$11.981
$11.98 · 1 unit4 cum.Ask size at this price, and the running total through it from the cheapest ask — 4 units are buyable at or under $11.98 delivered. The shaded staircase behind the row IS that running total.
Ask depth$642.13Ask depth$642.13Every live fixed-price ask summed at its DELIVERED price — what clearing the whole visible book would cost. There is no bid side to set it against: no auction has a bid on it and no buylist quotes this instrument, and an absent side is never drawn as a zero.
One candle per UTC day — the finest grain this market recordsOne candle per ISO week (Mon–Sun), rolled up from the daily barsOne candle per calendar month, rolled up from the daily barsitem — the sale price alone, excluding shipping. This is the basis TCGplayer’s own market guide is published on, and the basis every wall tile, screener row and watchlist quote uses, so it is what the headline compares against.delivered — item + required shipping, the basis every alarm, floor and fair value uses. A print whose shipping the venue never stated has no delivered price and is excluded from the bar rather than counted at its item price; a day with no priced print falls back to the guide, which is an item price and says so.
How each period is drawn. Candles and bars show the full observed open/high/low/close; line and area show the close alone. The DATA does not change with the mark.
Price scale (linear, log or percent), auto-scaling, and the note on exactly how these bars were built.
Expand the chart to the whole viewport. Same bars and same drawings — only the room they get changes.
Cursor — chart crosshair, pan and zoomTrend line — two pointsHorizontal line — one click, priced at the axisRay — two points, extended forwardZone — two cornersFibonacci retracement — anchor the move, start to endNote — click, then typeMeasure — drag for change, percent and barsMagnet — snap each new anchor to the nearest bar's open, high, low or close, so a line lands on an observation rather than between two of them.Nothing to clear — there are no drawings on this card.DRW
No fair value is published for this card — needs 3 confirmed observations (2 in 30d).
Market safety
▲High riskOne buyer can set this price on at least one dimension: a spike here would outlive the 30-day window every number we publish is measured over, or the whole buyable book is inside a single ordinary order (under 5 units).
$437.92 clears the cheap side — 80 days of turnover (4.27 book-months, 30 asks).
Book
Chase
—Pack count unknownA priced sealed product exists, but nothing on record says how many packs are inside it. Defaulting a booster box to 36 packs is true for most modern sets and false for enough of them that the guess would sit invisibly inside a dollar figure, so the card withholds instead.
1 in 9.0 packs for ultra rare, shared by 33 cards in Lost Thunder — but nothing on record says how many packs are in this set's sealed products, and a guessed pack count would sit invisibly inside the spend figure.
Breakdown
RarityUltra RareRarityUltra RareThe provider's own spelling, verbatim. The odds row and this printing have to carry the same string or no estimate is made — a mismatch must produce nothing rather than another rarity's rate.Slot odds
Supply
▼Heavy supply36 listed units against a 0.5/day pace is 77.1 days of stock. Under 7d reads tight, 30d or more reads heavy.
36 units listed across 30 sellers — 77.1d of stock at the 30-day pace of 0.5/day.
PopulationAll graders pooled232Every slab reported by every grader we hold a census for, as each of them states its own total. A share of what was submitted and kept — never the odds a copy grades 10.ACE1Slabs ACE itself reports for this card. Switching tabs changes the whole chart below to that grader's own grade curve.CGC47Slabs CGC itself reports for this card. Switching tabs changes the whole chart below to that grader's own grade curve.PSA184Slabs PSA itself reports for this card. Switching tabs changes the whole chart below to that grader's own grade curve.
801010 — 80 slabs, 34.5% of the 232 charted hereCGC 11 (Gem Mint 10 · Pristine 10) · PSA 699799 — 97 slabs, 41.8% of the 232 charted hereCGC 16 · PSA 81108.58.5 — 10 slabs, 4.3% of the 232 charted hereCGC 103388 — 33 slabs, 14.2% of the 232 charted hereACE 1 · CGC 5 · PSA 2727.57.5 — 2 slabs, 0.9% of the 232 charted hereCGC 2877 — 8 slabs, 3.4% of the 232 charted hereCGC 2 · PSA 6166 — 1 slabs, 0.4% of the 232 charted herePSA 11AuthAuth — 1 slabs, 0.4% of the 232 charted hereCGC 1
Listed · 30 sellers · $642.1336 unitsActive fixed-price asks with a known delivered price. Auctions are a separate market and never enter this count.Sold · 30d · 0.5/day14 unitsUnits over the last 30 days, on TCGplayer and eBay, against 7 in the 30 days before. Newest reading 2026-10-02.Graded · ACE 1 · CGC 47 · PSA 184232 slabsEvery slab reported by every grader we hold a census for, pooled. A share of what was submitted and kept — not the odds your copy grades 10.
Slab premium
ScarcityScarceA named card at this rarity takes 1 in 297 packs on average, which is the middle fifth of every card we hold pack odds for. The bands are the card-weighted quintiles of that population, not thresholds we picked.
1 in 297 packs for one copy of this card, estimated1 in 297packsestimatedThe Pokémon Company has never published physical booster odds in any region, and nobody has published a pack-opening study of this set. This figure is the rate this rarity measured at across sets of the same era — good to about a tier, not to a decimal. It is not a measurement of this set.
Half of all openers get one within 206 packs
Commonest of 2 hit tiers in Lost ThunderEvery tier on this ladder comes out of the same pack under the same study, so the position is a like-for-like comparison. It ranks NAMED cards, not tiers: a 12-card tier and a 1-card tier with the same slot odds are not the same difficulty.
What changedWhat changedThe observable that moved, stated before any reason for it — the fact the rest of this panel has to account for.
Modelled guide price moved +0.0% over the trailing 7 days and -2.9% over 30 days, now at $11.56. Active TCGplayer listings fell 0% over the same 7 days to 0.
Primary explanationPrimary explanationThe reading the evidence best supports. It is an explanation, never a forecast, and it is only as good as the Evidence row two lines down.
Primary read: Price trend scored 14/100 (composite weight 31%). — the largest single contributor to the current ILLIQUID_UNKNOWN regime read.
AlternativeAlternativeA competing explanation the SAME evidence would also support. It is printed even when the primary looks strong: an explanation with no stated alternative is a story, not an analysis.
Alternative explanation: Relative strength scored 17/100 (composite weight 21%).. With 30 distinct sellers/observations in the trailing window, either read is defensible — this is not a high-conviction single-cause move.
EvidenceEvidenceWhat kind of fact this row is. A completed sale, a live ask and a calculated guide price are three different weights of evidence about the same number, and this column is the difference between them.
ObservedObservedThe day the fact was read — not the day the underlying event happened, and not today. An old date is an old reading.
AgeAgeHow long ago this row was read, as of the moment the page was computed.
ConfidenceConfidenceHow much weight this row carries where it feeds a model, from the resolver that matched it. Lower means a looser match or a thinner source, and a low-confidence row is reweighted rather than dropped.
ModelledModelledYes = a CALCULATED value (a guide price, an estimate); No = something actually observed (a sale, a listing, a census count). A modelled row is evidence about a model, not about the market.
Sweeping 10% of the visible book costs $70.25The next unbought ask after that sweep sits at $12.53 ask — -17% against today's cheapest.Visible asks only, at delivered prices. An unshipped listing has no delivered price and is not in this ladder.
50%·$334.43·$16.14 ask+7%Sweeping 50% of the visible book costs $334.43The next unbought ask after that sweep sits at $16.14 ask — +7% against today's cheapest.Visible asks only, at delivered prices. An unshipped listing has no delivered price and is not in this ladder.
80%·$597.78·$43.96 ask+192%Sweeping 80% of the visible book costs $597.78The next unbought ask after that sweep sits at $43.96 ask — +192% against today's cheapest.Visible asks only, at delivered prices. An unshipped listing has no delivered price and is not in this ladder.
Book $642.13Total notional on the visible ask ladder, and the largest single seller's share of it. A book that is mostly one seller's inventory is one decision away from moving.
Mechanics▾
Cost to +50%$437.92
clears every ask under +50% of the last trade
Days to absorb80
30 units to control
Book notional$642.13
36 units · 1 level
Book / 30d sold4.3x
30d traded $150.40
VenuesTCGplayer
The absorption ladder walks the visible delivered-price ask book cheapest-first: what each slice of the book costs, the ask it leaves marginal, and how far that sits from the last price the card actually traded at. Manipulation risk is the worse of two reads — how many days of this card’s own turnover it would take to absorb the cost of control, and whether the whole buyable book fits inside a single ordinary order.
Flow
—SteadyThis week's daily sold units overlap the middle half of the rest of the window, so no change in pace is separable from the noise. Trading at its own normal rate.
3 sold in 7d, 0.9× the 30d pace — 30d prints clear at $12.19 median, +16.3% vs the $10.48 floor.
This week 3 · last week 4 · 30d/wk 3
Recent prints
$13.99+33.5%11d ago$13.99 delivered, 1 unit, 2026-10-02T07:00:00.000ZMeasured against today's cheapest delivered ask — a print above it is information, not bad news.$13.26+26.5%13d ago$13.26 delivered, 1 unit, 2026-09-30T07:00:00.000ZMeasured against today's cheapest delivered ask — a print above it is information, not bad news.$12.99+24.0%16d ago$12.99 delivered, 1 unit, 2026-09-27T07:00:00.000ZMeasured against today's cheapest delivered ask — a print above it is information, not bad news.$17.89
Method▾
Daily units are the venue's own sold-quantity history, expanded off each bucket's real span, plus confirmed prints from the other side of the market. Prints come from the live sales tape at delivered prices. The floor is the cheapest delivered ask (item + required shipping) across venues — the same one FAIR VALUE prices against.
Bottom line
—No callThe inputs that did report are too stale or too thin to trust, so no call is made on them.
29/100 across 6 of 11 inputs. For: few of these were ever made. Against: price trend reads 14/100. The evidence behind it is too thin to trust, so no call is made on it.
Price trend14Price trend14/1007-day and 30-day returns read against the noise of this card’s own series. Above 50 the price moved further than its own noise explains; below 50 it moved the other way. Withheld on a window with no confirmed print, where the line is the relay’s published guide and the return would be a reading of its revision schedule.Carries 13% of the composite.Manipulation risk85Manipulation risk85/100RISK-ORIENTED. What it costs to walk the visible book up 50%, against both real trailing volume and one buyer’s cheque book. High here is bad, and it enters the composite inverted.Carries 9% of the composite, inverted: 85 risk entered as 15.Relative strength17Relative strength17/100This card’s 30-day return as a percentile of every tracked card that has one. 50 is "moved with the market". Declines to speak until the ranked universe is large enough to mean it.Carries 7% of the composite.Liquidity29Liquidity29/100Four equally-weighted readings of what counterparties did: the chance it trades today, how many of the last 30 days carried a trade, 30-day units sold against the units on the board, and how many different people are selling it. A reading nobody can measure is absent and the rest reweight.Carries 9% of the composite.Scarcity73Scarcity73/100How few of this card exist, as a percentile of every card we can read. Prefers PRINT SCARCITY’s estimate — graded population with the value confound divided out, turned into a print scale by the pull rate — and falls back to packs-per-copy alone where that cannot be read. Scarce is oriented as GOOD, on the theory that thinner supply supports a price. Weighted low on purpose: scarcity is fixed at print and the market has had years to price it in, so this is a structural prior rather than an edge.Carries 7% of the composite.Grading upside47Grading upside47/100Best expected return across grading vendors, half a point per percent — the optionality on top of the raw thesis, never the thesis itself.Carries 6% of the composite.
6 of 11 inputs · 51% weight · -25% confidence▾
Not reading yet: value vs fair, money flow, book pressure, seller concentration, reprint risk.
Price trend13%147-day and 30-day returns read against the noise of this card’s own series. Above 50 the price moved further than its own noise explains; below 50 it moved the other way. Withheld on a window with no confirmed print, where the line is the relay’s published guide and the return would be a reading of its revision schedule.Manipulation risk9%85RISK-ORIENTED. What it costs to walk the visible book up 50%, against both real trailing volume and one buyer’s cheque book. High here is bad, and it enters the composite inverted.Relative strength7%17This card’s 30-day return as a percentile of every tracked card that has one. 50 is "moved with the market". Declines to speak until the ranked universe is large enough to mean it.Liquidity9%29Four equally-weighted readings of what counterparties did: the chance it trades today, how many of the last 30 days carried a trade, 30-day units sold against the units on the board, and how many different people are selling it. A reading nobody can measure is absent and the rest reweight.
1 in 9.0 packsest.
Slot odds1 in 9.0 packsFlipside Gaming — A Comprehensive Review of Rarity in the Pokémon TCG — no sample size published. Nobody has measured this set; this is the rate the rarity measured at across sets of the same era. Era model: GX cards are reported at approximately 1 in 9 packs across the era. The catalog files standard and full-art GX under one `Ultra Rare` bucket, so this rate covers both and, if anything, understates the bucket. No set of this era has ever been measured at scale, and the source states a ratio without a sample size. Community measurement, not official odds: nobody publishes physical pack rates.
Cards at rarity33 in Lost ThunderCards at rarity33 in Lost ThunderCounted from the catalog: 33 printings in Lost Thunder carry the rarity "Ultra Rare".
This card1 in 297 packsest. ±30%This card1 in 297 packsThe era model’s rate for this rarity, split evenly across the 33 cards printed at it. That even split is the estimate's weakest link, and it is bounded rather than hand-waved: a published 8,000-pack study put two Special Illustration Rares from one set at 1 in 309 and 1 in 393 packs — same rarity, same set — so a per-card figure is good to about ±30%.
Method▾
P(this card, per pack) = the published odds of its RARITY appearing, split evenly across the cards printed at that rarity in the set. Expected packs is 1/p, the mean of the geometric distribution. The range plots expected pack spend ÷ the single's delivered price on a log axis centred on parity. Pack price is a sealed product's own price divided by its stated pack count, and is computed only where that count carries a source. The single is the cheapest delivered ask (item + required shipping) across venues — the same figure FAIR VALUE prices against.
The Pokémon Company has never published physical booster odds in any region — the only official drop-rate page covers the digital TCG Live packs and lists no probabilities at all. Every figure here is a hand-entered citation of a published pack-opening study, and each one names its source and sample on hover.
Sealed
—No MSRP on fileThese products are priced, but not one of them carries a recorded MSRP with a source behind it. An MSRP is somebody’s assertion rather than a published dataset, and an appreciation measured against nothing is not a judgement this card will invent. The prices are listed below; the comparison is what is missing.
6 of this set’s 18 sealed products carry a price; none carries a recorded MSRP to measure appreciation against.
Set supply · not this card’sThe set's wholesale supply, not this card's — bulk lifts every raw copy in the set.▼Low1 lot listed on 2026-10-13 — higher than 2% of the set's own readings over 29 readings in 90 days.1 lots · CA$27.78 CAD/pack
Method▾
Sealed product from Lost Thunder — the set this card was printed in. We track which set a product belongs to, not which cards are inside it. Appreciation is each product’s last stored price against its own recorded MSRP, in percent. The card’s call is the MEDIAN of those percentages across the products that have an MSRP — a median rather than a mean, so one outlier SKU cannot carry a whole set — and a product with no MSRP on file is left out of that aggregate rather than counted as zero; it still lists below with its price. MSRP is somebody’s assertion rather than a published dataset, so it is shown only where a source is recorded against it, and that source is on the row’s hover. The bands are a legend for the percentage the card prints beside them: within ±5% is at MSRP, which is this repo’s own fair-value tolerance; up to +25% is a slight premium; up to +100% a significant one; at or above +100% the price has at least doubled and the figure is stated as a multiple, because a four-digit percentage is not a number anybody reads. Each price line takes a day’s observed low/high sale range and plots its midpoint; on a day with no recorded sale it carries the provider’s own daily guide value instead — a quoted price, not a transaction — and those days are drawn dashed, never described as trades. Every line is indexed to its own first stored day = 100, so the chart compares appreciation between products rather than price levels: a booster pack and a booster box cannot honestly share a dollar axis.
Restock
—Not trackedThis set has sealed products, but no retailer has ever been read for any of them. Not tracked is not sold out.
18 sealed products in this set, and no retailer has ever been read for any of them — which is not the same as sold out.
Best Buy: not currently tracked.Walmart: not currently tracked.Target: not currently tracked.GameStop: not currently tracked.
0 retailers tracked · 4 not monitoredEvery retailer in the registry has a cell, including the ones that are not tracked — a shelf nobody is watching reads UNKNOWN, never 'sold out'. One store's empty shelf is not the whole market, and an untracked one is not evidence about the market at all.Set-level: Lost Thunder sealed products, not this cardRetail rows attach to SEALED products only — no big-box retailer sells single cards — so this whole card is the SET's shelf availability. It is not a statement about this card, and a card's own price is unaffected by it.Print status unknownThere is no published source for whether a Pokémon product is still being printed — The Pokémon Company has never announced print cessation in any region, and the annual rotation announcement is about tournament legality, not production. So this is an inference, never a fact, and the verdict above comes from observed shelf readings instead. Nothing direct is on file here — no shelf reading either way and no recorded reprint announcement — and release age plus a price ratio is a hypothesis, not a print status, so no estimate is made.
Shelf prices are pre-tax and exclude shipping — never comparable to a delivered price.Retail shelf prices are pre-tax and exclude shipping, so they are not comparable to the delivered marketplace prices shown elsewhere on this page. They are never fed into a delivered-price floor.Method▾
Each row is one tracked retailer's most recent reading of one of the set's sealed products, at that retailer's own SKU. A restock is an observed OUT_OF_STOCK → IN_STOCK transition in that SKU's reading history, never a change we inferred from a price or a gap. Shelf prices are pre-tax and exclude shipping, so they are not delivered prices and are never fed into a floor.
Absorption
—Building historyToo few readings of the book to tell a drawdown from noise. The count is on the card — see the note below.
1 reading of this book so far, one per 1 day. The direction reads once there are enough of them to tell a drawdown from noise.
Method▾
Each reading counts the cheapest asks on offer at that instant: how many copies they hold, across how many asks, from how many sellers. It is the cheap end of the book, not the book — the venue lists more, and those asks are not counted here. Sold units are confirmed prints from the live tape over the same span, and are shown only when the tape reaches back past the first reading.
No accumulation or distribution verdict is offered. A rise or fall in a fixed-size window onto the cheapest asks is a fact about the window: the copies inside it grow when multi-copy sellers price into the cheap end, whether the book behind it is growing, shrinking or flat. The verdict returns when a reading carries the venue’s own total for the book rather than the size of our sample.
▲Strong slab premiumThe dearest priced rung is PSA 10 at $68.99, 6.6× the $10.48 raw reference (cheapest delivered ask).
A PSA 10 is worth $68.99 — 6.6× the $10.48 raw cheapest delivered ask — and that is the provider’s modelled value, not a sale.
Dearest slab per grading company
PSA 10$68.99guideThe provider’s MODELLED value for this grade — not a sale and not even an offer. Often extrapolated from the grades that did sell.6.6×PSA 10 — $68.99, 6.6× rawRaw$10.48askA live listing. Nobody has paid this.1.0×Raw — $10.48, 1.0× rawThe cheapest copy actually listed for sale, delivered — item plus required shipping. An offer, not a price anybody has paid. Every multiple on this ladder is taken against it.
One rung down, a PSA 9 is $14.47 — 1.4× raw.
ACE (1 slabs), CGC (47 slabs) have no priced comp at any grade — nothing has been paid for one we can see.
Grading ROI
▼Don't gradePSA: -$65.18 expected after $84.99 of fees — observed gem share 38% of n=184.
Best on PSA: -$65.18 expected after $84.99 of fees — observed gem share 38% of n=184.
VendorVendorThe grading company, one row each. Rows are the graders we hold both a fee schedule and a population census for — a grader we cannot price is left out rather than estimated.
FeeFeeThe all-in submission cost per card at this grader: grading tier plus shipping both ways and insurance, as published. A † marks a fee we could not read from a published schedule and had to carry from a prior reading. Lower is better.
P(10)P(10)The share of this card’s submissions to this grader that came back a 10, from its own population census. It is what WAS submitted and kept, not the odds your particular copy grades — a card people only submit when it looks perfect reads high here for that reason alone.
10 price10 priceWhat a 10 from this grader actually sells for. The superscript says what kind of evidence that is — a sale, an unsold listing, or the provider’s own modelled guide.
ROI(10)ROI(10)Return if the card grades a 10 and sells at that price: (10 price − raw price − fee) over what you put in. The BEST case, before any probability is applied. Higher is better.
Risk-wtdRisk-wtdThe same return weighted by the odds of each grade, not just the 10 — the number to compare graders on, because a high P(10) at a high fee can lose to a lower one. A leading ≈ means the full grade distribution was unavailable and a coarser method stood in. Higher is better.
ACE
$24.39ACE Basic — the cheapest tier accepting single-card submissions, read 2026-10-06. £18.00 converted at GBP/USD 1.355 (2026-09-01) — a conversion, not a quoted USD price. Cheaper tiers you cannot use today: Core $16.26, Value $20.33.
0.0%95% interval 0.0%–79.3% on n=1. A share of what was submitted and kept, not submission odds.
—No 10 price is on file for ACE, so no return can be computed for it — an absence, never a zero.
—Return if the card grades a 10 and sells at that price: (10 price − raw price − fee) over what you put in. The BEST case, before any probability is applied. Higher is better.
—Risk-weighted ROI withheld: no ACE price at grade 10 at any basis.
CGC
$20.00CGC Economy — the cheapest tier accepting single-card submissions, read 2026-10-06. Cheaper tiers you cannot use today: Bulk $17.00.
23.4%95% interval 13.6%–37.2% on n=47. A share of what was submitted and kept, not submission odds.
—No 10 price is on file for CGC, so no return can be computed for it — an absence, never a zero.
Pre-grade this card →Photograph your own copy front and back for centering, wear and the odds of each grade. An estimate, not a grade.
$10.48 raw (cheapest delivered ask) + $59.99 PSA Standard + $25.00 ship/ins = $95.47 · less 13.25% sale fee · 45d lockup
Share of what was submitted and kept — not the odds your copy grades 10.
Secret Rare
~1 in 1,584
Secret Rare — 22 cards at this rarity, so one NAMED Secret Rare is 1 in 1,584 packs, estimated from sets of the same era.
Ultra Rare~1 in 297Ultra Rare — 33 cards at this rarity, so one NAMED Ultra Rare is 1 in 297 packs, estimated from sets of the same era.
Hit tiers in Lost Thunder, hardest at the top. Log scale.
Method▾
P(this card, per pack) = the published odds of its RARITY appearing, split evenly across the cards printed at that rarity in the set; the figure shown is 1/p, the mean number of packs to one copy. The ladder plots every tier of the set on a logarithmic scale, because a set spans two orders of magnitude between its commonest hit and its hardest and a linear scale would pin all but one of them to the same end.
The Pokémon Company has never published physical booster odds in any region, and nobody has published a pack-opening study of this set. This figure is the rate this rarity measured at across sets of the same era — good to about a tier, not to a decimal. It is not a measurement of this set.
Print scarcity
•Lightly printedAgainst every card we can read, this one's implied print run lands in the lightly printed third. It is an ORDER, not a count — the model recovers no print figure and does not try to. Read from Lost Thunder's pooled print scale and this card's own pull rate.
Against every card we can read, this one's implied print run lands in the lightly printed third. It is an ORDER, not a count — the model recovers no print figure and does not try to. Read from Lost Thunder's pooled print scale and this card's own pull rate.
LightModerateHeavy
Model inputs
Graded copies232 copiesGraded copies232 copiesSlabs on record across PSA, CGC and ACE, summed over every grade. The model’s raw input — it is NOT the print run, because a card people grade often will show a large population off a small press run. Ungraded and sealed copies are invisible to it.Packs per copy1 in 297Packs per copy1 in 297How many packs it takes to see one named copy of this card — the same figure SCARCITY leads with. It is what converts a set-wide print scale into this card’s own.Set read from46 cardsSet read from46 cardsEvery card in the set with a price, a population and a pull rate gives an independent estimate of how many packs of the set exist. They are pooled by median, so one mis-joined card cannot move the answer.
Method▾
Graded population is print run × how often anyone bothers grading it, and the second factor moves with VALUE — so population is divided by price^0.606, the elasticity fitted across 3,826 cards that carry a population, a price and a pull rate at once. That normalised count is turned into a SET pack scale using the card’s pull rate (every card in a set is an independent read on how many packs exist, pooled by median), then brought back down to this card by its own pull rate. The band is a tertile of the result across every card that clears the gates.
Nobody has ever published a Pokémon print run, and this does not recover one — it is an ORDER, not a count. It reads surviving graded supply across PSA, CGC and ACE, so ungraded and sealed stock are invisible to it. What it is checked against: the model puts Black & White at the bottom of the catalog and modern Scarlet & Violet at the top, which is where the smallest and largest print runs actually are.
FinishesHolo
LanguagesEN
Set symbol
EvidenceEvidenceThe specific observations the explanation rests on. If this row is thin, treat the explanation as thin — it is the only thing holding it up.
Evidence: item-basis daily bars, TCGplayer active listings, absorption read ("Insufficient data: 1 inventory observation(s) in the trailing 30d window (need >= 4).").
ConfidenceConfidenceHow much weight to put on the primary explanation, given how much of the evidence actually resolved. It qualifies the row above; it never adds to it.
Confidence: 90% (floor-confidence 22/100), based on 978 days of observations.
What would disprove itWhat would disprove itThe observation that would break the primary explanation. It is what makes the reading falsifiable rather than unfalsifiable — and it is the thing to watch for next.
This read would be wrong if active listings rebound above 0 while sold median keeps falling.
CatalogCard identity: set, number, rarity, finish, release date. It dates from the printing itself, so an old reading here is expected and is not staleness.
Nov 2, 2018
8.0y
98%
No
Live askA copy offered for sale right now. An ask is what a seller wants, not what anyone paid — it bounds the price from above until it clears.
Oct 9, 2026
4d
90%
No
Guide priceA calculated market guide — a model of where the product is trading. Never a confirmed sale, and always marked Modelled.
Oct 12, 2026
1d
90%
Yes
Price statisticAn observed figure computed over several rows rather than one print — a delivered floor, a published median over a window.
Sep 27, 2026
16d
90%
No
Confirmed saleA completed transaction at a known price — the strongest evidence on this page. Prices are delivered (item + required shipping).
Sep 24, 2026
19d
85%
No
Inventory countHow many copies and listings stand on the book. What depth, supply and absorption are measured against.
Sep 27, 2026
16d
70%
No
Population censusA grader's published count of the copies it has slabbed at each grade. A record of what was submitted and kept, never the odds a copy grades.
Oct 6, 2026
7d
60%
No
Raw · Holo · Near MintWhat every row above was gathered for — one printing, in this one finish and condition or grade. Change either switcher in the header and you are reading a different one; the page's own URL is the address of exactly this one.pq-quant-2026.10.0The version of the scoring and analytics formulas that produced everything on this page. Two figures computed under different versions are not comparable, which is why the version is stated rather than assumed.
+70.7%
18d ago
$17.89 delivered, 1 unit, 2026-09-24T12:58:34.020ZMeasured against today's cheapest delivered ask — a print above it is information, not bad news.
$10.99+4.9%19d ago$10.99 delivered, 1 unit, 2026-09-24T00:00:00.000ZMeasured against today's cheapest delivered ask — a print above it is information, not bad news.
$12.19+16.3%22d ago$12.19 delivered, 1 unit, 2026-09-20T21:40:17.600ZMeasured against today's cheapest delivered ask — a print above it is information, not bad news.
Scarcity7%73How few of this card exist, as a percentile of every card we can read. Prefers PRINT SCARCITY’s estimate — graded population with the value confound divided out, turned into a print scale by the pull rate — and falls back to packs-per-copy alone where that cannot be read. Scarce is oriented as GOOD, on the theory that thinner supply supports a price. Weighted low on purpose: scarcity is fixed at print and the market has had years to price it in, so this is a structural prior rather than an edge.
Grading upside6%47Best expected return across grading vendors, half a point per percent — the optionality on top of the raw thesis, never the thesis itself.
Value vs fair17%no readingFair value returned UNKNOWN — too few comparable prints to anchor an estimate.
Money flow11%no readingNo confirmed prints with a contemporaneous ask to classify against.
Book pressure11%no readingNeeds a 30-day inventory change, or book counts spanning ≥3 days that move at all and rest on ≥8 listings. Collection of `inventory_observations` began 2026-09-02.
Seller concentration5%no readingThe venue attributes no seller identity to these asks.
Reprint risk5%no readingPrint status is unestablished — no shelf observation and no recorded reprint event.
The bottom line is a weighted mean of the signals that reported, renormalised so their weights sum to 1. Nothing defaults to a neutral 50: an input with no evidence is reweighted away and its absence is charged as a confidence penalty. Risk rows (manipulation, concentration, reprint) enter inverted. Data quality carries no weight at all — it decides whether the verdict may be spoken, because knowing a lot about a card is not a reason to buy it. Competitive meta sits OUTSIDE the weighted mean as a capped bonus added after it: a card nobody plays is never marked down for that, and a card the meta is built on can be marked up for it.
The Lost Thunder Booster Pack's most recent plotted day carries the provider’s daily guide value — no sale was recorded that day.
Indexed to each product’s own first stored day = 100. Lost Thunder Booster Pack in front, 5 behind · dashed = guide price, no sale that day.Each line is that product’s own price divided by its own first stored day and multiplied by 100, so every series starts on the dotted rule and the axis measures APPRECIATION rather than price. Dollars could not do this job here: a booster pack and a booster box differ by two orders of magnitude, and on a shared dollar axis the pack would sit flat on the floor of the plot however far it had actually travelled. The Lost Thunder Booster Pack is the base unit and is drawn in front; the rest are drawn behind it, and each one’s own numbers are in the table below. A dashed stretch is a run of days with no recorded sale, carrying the provider’s daily guide value — a quoted price, never a trade.
Appreciation vs MSRP
ProductPriceMSRPvs MSRPEvery sealed product the catalog holds for this set, ordered by how standard a unit each is for tracking a set’s sealed price. PRICE is the product’s last stored day — a sale where one was recorded, the provider’s daily guide value where none was, and the row’s hover says which. MSRP is blank wherever no source is recorded against one, because an MSRP with nobody behind it is not a fact. VS MSRP is the price against that MSRP, as a percentage up to a doubling and as a multiple past it.
Lost Thunder Theme Deck - "Blazing Volcano" [Entei]$34.94——Lost Thunder Theme Deck - "Blazing Volcano" [Entei]—Lost Thunder Theme Deck - "Blazing Volcano" [Entei]. Quoted at $34.94 on Oct 12, 2026 — a guide price, with no sale recorded that day. No MSRP is recorded against this product, so there is nothing to measure a premium from; the blank is a missing MSRP, not a missing price.Lost Thunder Booster Pack$58.80——Lost Thunder Booster Pack—Lost Thunder Booster Pack. Quoted at $58.80 on Oct 12, 2026 — a guide price, with no sale recorded that day. No MSRP is recorded against this product, so there is nothing to measure a premium from; the blank is a missing MSRP, not a missing price.Lost Thunder Build & Battle Box$194.88——Lost Thunder Build & Battle Box—Lost Thunder Build & Battle Box. Quoted at $194.88 on Oct 12, 2026 — a guide price, with no sale recorded that day. No MSRP is recorded against this product, so there is nothing to measure a premium from; the blank is a missing MSRP, not a missing price.Lost Thunder Booster Pack Art Bundle [Set of 4]$199.48——Lost Thunder Booster Pack Art Bundle [Set of 4]—Lost Thunder Booster Pack Art Bundle [Set of 4]. Quoted at $199.48 on Sep 22, 2026 — a guide price, with no sale recorded that day. No MSRP is recorded against this product, so there is nothing to measure a premium from; the blank is a missing MSRP, not a missing price.Lost Thunder Elite Trainer Box$690.38——Lost Thunder Elite Trainer Box—Lost Thunder Elite Trainer Box. Quoted at $690.38 on Oct 12, 2026 — a guide price, with no sale recorded that day. No MSRP is recorded against this product, so there is nothing to measure a premium from; the blank is a missing MSRP, not a missing price.Lost Thunder Booster Box$1,582.50——Lost Thunder Booster Box—Lost Thunder Booster Box. Quoted at $1,582.50 on Oct 12, 2026 — a guide price, with no sale recorded that day. No MSRP is recorded against this product, so there is nothing to measure a premium from; the blank is a missing MSRP, not a missing price.Lost Thunder Sleeved Booster Pack Art Bundle [Set of 4]———Lost Thunder Sleeved Booster Pack Art Bundle [Set of 4]—Lost Thunder Sleeved Booster Pack Art Bundle [Set of 4]. No stored price bar — nothing has been observed to trade, which is not the same as trading at zero. No MSRP is recorded against this product, so there is nothing to measure a premium from; the blank is a missing MSRP, not a missing price.Island Guardians GX Premium Collection———Island Guardians GX Premium Collection—Island Guardians GX Premium Collection. No stored price bar — nothing has been observed to trade, which is not the same as trading at zero. No MSRP is recorded against this product, so there is nothing to measure a premium from; the blank is a missing MSRP, not a missing price.
—Return if the card grades a 10 and sells at that price: (10 price − raw price − fee) over what you put in. The BEST case, before any probability is applied. Higher is better.
—Risk-weighted ROI withheld: no CGC price at grade 10 at any basis.
PSA
$59.99PSA Standard — the cheapest tier accepting single-card submissions, read 2026-10-06. Cheaper tiers you cannot use today: Value Bulk $24.99, Value $32.99.
37.5%95% interval 30.8%–44.7% on n=184. A share of what was submitted and kept, not submission odds.
$68.99What a 10 from this grader actually sells for. The superscript says what kind of evidence that is — a sale, an unsold listing, or the provider’s own modelled guide.guideThe provider’s MODELLED value for this grade — not a sale and not even an offer. Often extrapolated from the grades that did sell.
-37%-$35.62 on a $95.47 cost basis.
-69%Risk-weighted across all 5 PSA rungs; 96% of the distribution carried its own price, the remaining 4% valued at the pooled sub-10 price.
