Decidueye-GX — SV47/SV94Raw · Normal · Near MintEvery price, print, listing and score on this page belongs to this one printing in this one condition or grade — switch either dropdown and you are looking at a different one.
The condition or grade being priced. Each one is a separate instrument that trades at its own price, so choosing one replaces every figure on the page. “All conditions” and “All grades” are a union of the siblings — their tape, listings and volume are combined, with one sibling named as the reference for price and analytics.
∅Illiquid / UnknownIlliquid / UnknownThe classifier refused to call one: too little liquidity or too small a sample to test any rule. The absence of a read, never a tenth regime.As of 23:02ZAs of 23:02ZThe market price, its 1D/7D/30D returns, the order book, the For Sale counts and today’s price bar as they stood when this page was built. The page itself is served from a shared cache, so this stamp — not the moment you loaded it — is how old these numbers are. Your browser re-reads them a moment after the page arrives and this line follows.
Mkt Price
$19.55item—
modelled guide
Mkt Price$19.55 itemThe venue’s published daily market guide, which the venue itself declares MODELLED. Nothing is confirmed to have traded at it, no copy is listed at it, and it is not our estimate — it is theirs. It is quoted on the ITEM basis — the basis every wall tile is quoted on — and it is what the chart plots on a day with no print of its own.
Fair ValueN/A
Fair ValueN/ANo fair value is published for this instrument: no confirmed print or completed auction in 30 days — an estimate built from live asks alone would be a restatement of the book. The components below show what evidence exists; the estimate they would blend to is withheld rather than quoted. A weighted blend of independent estimates, quoted DELIVERED — item plus required shipping — where Mkt Price beside it may be item basis. Read the band, not the point: its width is the model's own confidence.
LiquidityN/A
LiquidityN/AHow easily a position clears, scored 0–100. Four readings, equally weighted, each independently nullable: trade rate (the chance it trades today, from 30d units sold), trade breadth (how many of the last 30 days carried a trade), queue clearance (30d units sold against the units on the board) and seller dispersion (how many different people are selling it). A reading nobody can measure is absent and the rest reweight — never filled in with a zero.
30D Vol
35units▲+106%
units · vs prior 30d
30D Vol35 units35 units over the last 30 days, on eBay. Newest reading Oct 10, 2026. Against 17 in the 30 days before.
For Sale
0units
live delivered asks
For Sale0 unitsEvery active fixed-price ask with a known delivered price. Auctions are a separate market and are never counted here.
Graded Pop
4,289
across 3 graders
Graded Pop4,289Every slab reported by every grader we hold a census for, pooled. A share of what was submitted and kept — not the odds a copy grades 10.
No live auction bids — this market has no resting bid book.
Cross-Market BasisNo ask ladder was available for this instrument, so the ask side is empty. No bid side exists: this market has no resting bid book. There are no live auction bids and no published buylist for this instrument, so the bid side is empty rather than synthesized from asks, price history or a spread assumption.——
No active listings.
Ask depth—Ask depth—Every live fixed-price ask summed at its DELIVERED price — what clearing the whole visible book would cost. There is no bid side to set it against: no auction has a bid on it and no buylist quotes this instrument, and an absent side is never drawn as a zero.
One candle per UTC day — the finest grain this market recordsOne candle per ISO week (Mon–Sun), rolled up from the daily barsOne candle per calendar month, rolled up from the daily barsitem — the sale price alone, excluding shipping. This is the basis TCGplayer’s own market guide is published on, and the basis every wall tile, screener row and watchlist quote uses, so it is what the headline compares against.delivered — item + required shipping, the basis every alarm, floor and fair value uses. A print whose shipping the venue never stated has no delivered price and is excluded from the bar rather than counted at its item price; a day with no priced print falls back to the guide, which is an item price and says so.
How each period is drawn. Candles and bars show the full observed open/high/low/close; line and area show the close alone. The DATA does not change with the mark.
Price scale (linear, log or percent), auto-scaling, and the note on exactly how these bars were built.
Expand the chart to the whole viewport. Same bars and same drawings — only the room they get changes.
Cursor — chart crosshair, pan and zoomTrend line — two pointsHorizontal line — one click, priced at the axisRay — two points, extended forwardZone — two cornersFibonacci retracement — anchor the move, start to endNote — click, then typeMeasure — drag for change, percent and barsMagnet — snap each new anchor to the nearest bar's open, high, low or close, so a line lands on an observation rather than between two of them.Nothing to clear — there are no drawings on this card.DRW
No fair value is published for this card — no confirmed print or completed auction in 30 days — an estimate built from live asks alone would be a restatement of the book.
Market safety
—No bookNo visible asks, so there is no control cost to band.
Nothing is listed for sale, so there is no book for one buyer to move.
Flow
Steady
Chase
—No pack priceThe pull rate is in hand, but no sealed product from this set carries a price we can divide into a per-pack cost — so the cost of ripping cannot be stated.
1 in 3.9 packs for shiny rare, shared by 86 cards in Hidden Fates Shiny Vault — but we track no sealed product for Hidden Fates Shiny Vault, so a pack has no price to divide the odds into.
Breakdown
RarityShiny rareRarityShiny rareThe provider's own spelling, verbatim. The odds row and this printing have to carry the same string or no estimate is made — a mismatch must produce nothing rather than another rarity's rate.Slot odds1 in 3.9 packs
Supply
▲Nothing listedNo active fixed-price ask carries a known delivered price right now. Anyone who wants one has to bid for it or wait.
0 units listed — 0.0d of stock at the 30-day pace of 1.2/day.
PopulationAll graders pooled4,289Every slab reported by every grader we hold a census for, as each of them states its own total. A share of what was submitted and kept — never the odds a copy grades 10. The bars below sum to 4,291, not 4,289: a grader can report a pooled rung and its qualified variants separately, so the stated total is the authority and the bars are what is chartable.ACE125Slabs ACE itself reports for this card. Switching tabs changes the whole chart below to that grader's own grade curve.CGC707Slabs CGC itself reports for this card. Switching tabs changes the whole chart below to that grader's own grade curve.PSA3,457Slabs PSA itself reports for this card. Switching tabs changes the whole chart below to that grader's own grade curve. The bars below sum to 3,459, not 3,457: a grader can report a pooled rung and its qualified variants separately, so the stated total is the authority and the bars are what is chartable.
2.5k1010 — 2,464 slabs, 57.4% of the 4,291 charted hereACE 107 · CGC 283 (Gem Mint 10 · Perfect 10 · Pristine 10) · PSA 2,07479.59.5 — 7 slabs, 0.2% of the 4,291 charted hereCGC 71.5k99 — 1,540 slabs, 35.9% of the 4,291 charted hereACE 13 · CGC 344 · PSA 1,183528.58.5 — 52 slabs, 1.2% of the 4,291 charted hereCGC 51 · PSA 117788 — 177 slabs, 4.1% of the 4,291 charted hereACE 3 · CGC 10 · PSA 16447.57.5 — 4 slabs, 0.1% of the 4,291 charted hereCGC 41877 — 18 slabs, 0.4% of the 4,291 charted hereACE 1 · CGC 4 · PSA 131766 — 17 slabs, 0.4% of the 4,291 charted herePSA 1735.55.5 — 3 slabs, 0.1% of the 4,291 charted hereCGC 3655 — 6 slabs, 0.1% of the 4,291 charted hereACE 1 · PSA 5122 — 1 slabs, 0.0% of the 4,291 charted herePSA 12AuthAuth — 2 slabs, 0.0% of the 4,291 charted hereCGC 1 · PSA 1
Listed0 unitsActive fixed-price asks with a known delivered price. Auctions are a separate market and never enter this count.Sold · 30d · 1.2/day35 unitsUnits over the last 30 days, on eBay, against 17 in the 30 days before. Newest reading 2026-10-10.Graded · ACE 125 · CGC 707 · PSA 3,4574,289 slabsEvery slab reported by every grader we hold a census for, pooled. A share of what was submitted and kept — not the odds your copy grades 10.
ScarcityScarceA named card at this rarity takes 1 in 338 packs on average, which is the middle fifth of every card we hold pack odds for. The bands are the card-weighted quintiles of that population, not thresholds we picked.
1 in 338 packs for one copy of this card, estimated1 in 338packsestimatedThe Pokémon Company has never published physical booster odds in any region, and nobody has published a pack-opening study of this set. This figure is the rate this rarity measured at across sets of the same era — good to about a tier, not to a decimal. It is not a measurement of this set.
Half of all openers get one within 234 packs
Commonest of 2 hit tiers in Hidden Fates Shiny VaultEvery tier on this ladder comes out of the same pack under the same study, so the position is a like-for-like comparison. It ranks NAMED cards, not tiers: a 12-card tier and a 1-card tier with the same slot odds are not the same difficulty.
Competitive play▼Not Standard-legalPublished as not legal in Standard, and in none of the 22,383 Standard decklists in the last 30 days.
Not legal in Standard, and in none of the 22,383 Standard decklists across 338 events, last 30 days.
30d sold34 units (+100% vs prior 30d)Units of THIS printing sold in the 30 days ending October 13, 2026, against the 30 days before that (17). Demand at a table and demand in the market are different measurements; this is the second one.Meta vs priceNot enough history (0 weeks)Spearman rank correlation of weekly share against weekly median price over the trailing 26 weeks, on the weeks carrying both. Printed only at 8 weeks or more; below that the count is stated instead of a coefficient off a handful of readings.
94.5% of card lines in these decklists matched a card in our catalog; an unmatched line is never counted. Online events only, not Regionals or Worlds.
Why It's Moving
What changedWhat changedThe observable that moved, stated before any reason for it — the fact the rest of this panel has to account for.
Modelled guide price moved +0.0% over the trailing 7 days and +0.0% over 30 days, now at $19.55. Active TCGplayer listings fell 0% over the same 7 days to 0.
Primary explanationPrimary explanationThe reading the evidence best supports. It is an explanation, never a forecast, and it is only as good as the Evidence row two lines down.
Primary read: Price trend scored 4/100 (composite weight 47%). — the largest single contributor to the current ILLIQUID_UNKNOWN regime read.
AlternativeAlternativeA competing explanation the SAME evidence would also support. It is printed even when the primary looks strong: an explanation with no stated alternative is a story, not an analysis.
Alternative explanation: Relative strength scored 16/100 (composite weight 32%).. With 0 distinct sellers/observations in the trailing window, either read is defensible — this is not a high-conviction single-cause move.
EvidenceEvidenceWhat kind of fact this row is. A completed sale, a live ask and a calculated guide price are three different weights of evidence about the same number, and this column is the difference between them.
ObservedObservedThe day the fact was read — not the day the underlying event happened, and not today. An old date is an old reading.
AgeAgeHow long ago this row was read, as of the moment the page was computed.
ConfidenceConfidenceHow much weight this row carries where it feeds a model, from the resolver that matched it. Lower means a looser match or a thinner source, and a low-confidence row is reweighted rather than dropped.
ModelledModelledYes = a CALCULATED value (a guide price, an estimate); No = something actually observed (a sale, a listing, a census count). A modelled row is evidence about a model, not about the market.
This week's daily sold units overlap the middle half of the rest of the window, so no change in pace is separable from the noise. Trading at its own normal rate.
16 sold in 7d, 2.0× the 30d pace — 30d prints clear at $17.50 median.
This week 16 · last week 6 · 30d/wk 8
Recent prints
$18.003d ago$18.00 delivered, 1 unit, 2026-10-10T07:00:00.000Z$60.994d ago$60.99 delivered, 1 unit, 2026-10-09T07:00:00.000Z$24.004d ago$24.00 delivered, 1 unit, 2026-10-09T07:00:00.000Z$18.254d ago$18.25 delivered, 1 unit, 2026-10-09T07:00:00.000Z$17.004d ago$17.00 delivered, 1 unit, 2026-10-09T07:00:00.000Z$19.995d ago$19.99 delivered, 1 unit, 2026-10-08T07:00:00.000Z
Method▾
Daily units are the venue's own sold-quantity history, expanded off each bucket's real span, plus confirmed prints from the other side of the market. Prints come from the live sales tape at delivered prices. The floor is the cheapest delivered ask (item + required shipping) across venues — the same one FAIR VALUE prices against.
Bottom line
—No callUnder half the model had evidence, so the score is a statement about the inputs that reported rather than about the card. No call until more of them do.
25/100 across 4 of 11 inputs. Against: price trend reads 4/100. That is under half the model, so no call is made on it.
Price trend4Price trend4/1007-day and 30-day returns read against the noise of this card’s own series. Above 50 the price moved further than its own noise explains; below 50 it moved the other way. Withheld on a window with no confirmed print, where the line is the relay’s published guide and the return would be a reading of its revision schedule.Carries 13% of the composite.Relative strength16Relative strength16/100This card’s 30-day return as a percentile of every tracked card that has one. 50 is "moved with the market". Declines to speak until the ranked universe is large enough to mean it.Carries 7% of the composite.Scarcity52Scarcity52/100How few of this card exist, as a percentile of every card we can read. Prefers PRINT SCARCITY’s estimate — graded population with the value confound divided out, turned into a print scale by the pull rate — and falls back to packs-per-copy alone where that cannot be read. Scarce is oriented as GOOD, on the theory that thinner supply supports a price. Weighted low on purpose: scarcity is fixed at print and the market has had years to price it in, so this is a structural prior rather than an edge.Carries 7% of the composite.Grading upside49Grading upside49/100Best expected return across grading vendors, half a point per percent — the optionality on top of the raw thesis, never the thesis itself.Carries 6% of the composite.
4 of 11 inputs · 33% weight · -34% confidence▾
Not reading yet: value vs fair, money flow, book pressure, liquidity, manipulation risk, seller concentration, reprint risk.
Price trend13%47-day and 30-day returns read against the noise of this card’s own series. Above 50 the price moved further than its own noise explains; below 50 it moved the other way. Withheld on a window with no confirmed print, where the line is the relay’s published guide and the return would be a reading of its revision schedule.Relative strength7%16This card’s 30-day return as a percentile of every tracked card that has one. 50 is "moved with the market". Declines to speak until the ranked universe is large enough to mean it.Scarcity7%52How few of this card exist, as a percentile of every card we can read. Prefers PRINT SCARCITY’s estimate — graded population with the value confound divided out, turned into a print scale by the pull rate — and falls back to packs-per-copy alone where that cannot be read. Scarce is oriented as GOOD, on the theory that thinner supply supports a price. Weighted low on purpose: scarcity is fixed at print and the market has had years to price it in, so this is a structural prior rather than an edge.Grading upside6%
est.
Slot odds1 in 3.9 packsTCGplayer (Authentication Center), pooled by PokéQuant — no sample size published. Nobody has measured this set; this is the rate the rarity measured at across sets of the same era. Era model, ACROSS ERAS: Paldean Fates (Scarlet & Violet) is the only shiny-subset set ever measured, at 25.44% ± 2.01% of packs. Hidden Fates’ Shiny Vault shares the structure but not the era, so this is among the weakest estimates in the table. Community measurement, not official odds: nobody publishes physical pack rates.
Cards at rarity86 in Hidden Fates Shiny VaultCards at rarity86 in Hidden Fates Shiny VaultCounted from the catalog: 86 printings in Hidden Fates Shiny Vault carry the rarity "Shiny rare".
This card1 in 338 packsest. ±30%This card1 in 338 packsThe era model’s rate for this rarity, split evenly across the 86 cards printed at it. That even split is the estimate's weakest link, and it is bounded rather than hand-waved: a published 8,000-pack study put two Special Illustration Rares from one set at 1 in 309 and 1 in 393 packs — same rarity, same set — so a per-card figure is good to about ±30%.
Method▾
P(this card, per pack) = the published odds of its RARITY appearing, split evenly across the cards printed at that rarity in the set. Expected packs is 1/p, the mean of the geometric distribution. The range plots expected pack spend ÷ the single's delivered price on a log axis centred on parity. Pack price is a sealed product's own price divided by its stated pack count, and is computed only where that count carries a source. The single is the cheapest delivered ask (item + required shipping) across venues — the same figure FAIR VALUE prices against.
The Pokémon Company has never published physical booster odds in any region — the only official drop-rate page covers the digital TCG Live packs and lists no probabilities at all. Every figure here is a hand-entered citation of a published pack-opening study, and each one names its source and sample on hover.
Slab premium
•Modest slab premiumThe dearest priced rung is PSA 10 at $97.50, 5.0× the $19.55 raw reference (modelled guide price).
A PSA 10 is worth $97.50 — 5.0× the $19.55 raw modelled guide price.
Dearest slab per grading company
PSA 10$97.505.0×PSA 10 — $97.50, 5.0× raw$99.29 · EBAY · 2026-10-03 · $92.28 · EBAY · 2026-10-03 · $88.20 · EBAY · 2026-10-03 +34 more print(s)ACE 10$94.354.8×ACE 10 — $94.35, 4.8× raw$94.35 · EBAY · 2026-07-17CGC 10$75.003.8×CGC 10 — $75.00, 3.8× raw$75.00 · EBAY · 2026-09-16TAG 9$45.002.3×TAG 9 — $45.00, 2.3× raw$45.00 · EBAY · 2026-09-11BGS 9.5$32.001.6×BGS 9.5 — $32.00, 1.6× raw$32.00 · EBAY · 2026-09-13Raw$19.55guideThe provider’s MODELLED value for this grade — not a sale and not even an offer. Often extrapolated from the grades that did sell.1.0×Raw — $19.55, 1.0× rawThe venue’s published daily market guide, which the venue itself declares MODELLED. Nothing is confirmed to have traded at it, no copy is listed at it, and it is not our estimate — it is theirs. Every multiple on this ladder is taken against it.
A PSA 10 fetches 3% more than a ACE 10.
One rung down, a PSA 9 is $30.00 — 1.5× raw.
Grading ROI
—Insufficient dataACE: no ACE sub-10 comp for this printing — a materially likely outcome has no observed price, so the expected value is withheld rather than modelled.
Best on ACE: no ACE sub-10 comp for this printing — a materially likely outcome has no observed price, so the expected value is withheld rather than modelled.
Odds of a 10 vs what it takes
ACE needs 84% tens to break even; the census shows 86%, with a 95% interval of 78% to 91% on 125 slabs.
break-even 84.2%Break-even84.2%The 10 rate this submission would need just to cover the raw price and the fee. It is the white line on the meter above: the solid segment has to clear it before grading is worth doing at all.observed 85.6% [78.4%–90.7%] n=125Observed 10 rate85.6%Measured over 125 graded copies in the census, with a 95% interval of 78.4%–90.7% around it — the band on the meter IS that interval, and it is the width of the doubt, not of the opportunity. A small n makes it wide.
VendorVendorThe grading company, one row each. Rows are the graders we hold both a fee schedule and a population census for — a grader we cannot price is left out rather than estimated.
FeeFeeThe all-in submission cost per card at this grader: grading tier plus shipping both ways and insurance, as published. A † marks a fee we could not read from a published schedule and had to carry from a prior reading. Lower is better.
P(10)P(10)The share of this card’s submissions to this grader that came back a 10, from its own population census. It is what WAS submitted and kept, not the odds your particular copy grades — a card people only submit when it looks perfect reads high here for that reason alone.
10 price10 priceWhat a 10 from this grader actually sells for. The superscript says what kind of evidence that is — a sale, an unsold listing, or the provider’s own modelled guide.
ROI(10)ROI(10)Return if the card grades a 10 and sells at that price: (10 price − raw price − fee) over what you put in. The BEST case, before any probability is applied. Higher is better.
Pre-grade this card →Photograph your own copy front and back for centering, wear and the odds of each grade. An estimate, not a grade.
$19.55 raw (modelled guide price) + $24.39 ACE Basic + $25.00 ship/ins = $68.94 · less 13.25% sale fee · 45d lockup
Share of what was submitted and kept — not the odds your copy grades 10.
Secret Rare
~1 in 576
Secret Rare — 8 cards at this rarity, so one NAMED Secret Rare is 1 in 576 packs, estimated from sets of the same era.
Shiny rare~1 in 338Shiny rare — 86 cards at this rarity, so one NAMED Shiny rare is 1 in 338 packs, estimated from sets of the same era.
Hit tiers in Hidden Fates Shiny Vault, hardest at the top. Log scale.
Method▾
P(this card, per pack) = the published odds of its RARITY appearing, split evenly across the cards printed at that rarity in the set; the figure shown is 1/p, the mean number of packs to one copy. The ladder plots every tier of the set on a logarithmic scale, because a set spans two orders of magnitude between its commonest hit and its hardest and a linear scale would pin all but one of them to the same end.
The Pokémon Company has never published physical booster odds in any region, and nobody has published a pack-opening study of this set. This figure is the rate this rarity measured at across sets of the same era — good to about a tier, not to a decimal. It is not a measurement of this set.
Print scarcity
•Set not coveredA set needs at least three cards carrying a price, a graded population and a pull rate at once before its print scale means anything. Hidden Fates Shiny Vault does not reach that, so there is nothing to rank this card against.
A set needs at least three cards carrying a price, a graded population and a pull rate at once before its print scale means anything. Hidden Fates Shiny Vault does not reach that, so there is nothing to rank this card against.
LightModerateHeavy
Model inputs
Graded copies4,291 copiesGraded copies4,291 copiesSlabs on record across PSA, CGC and ACE, summed over every grade. The model’s raw input — it is NOT the print run, because a card people grade often will show a large population off a small press run. Ungraded and sealed copies are invisible to it.Packs per copy1 in 338Packs per copy1 in 338How many packs it takes to see one named copy of this card — the same figure SCARCITY leads with. It is what converts a set-wide print scale into this card’s own.
Method▾
Graded population is print run × how often anyone bothers grading it, and the second factor moves with VALUE — so population is divided by price^0.606, the elasticity fitted across 3,826 cards that carry a population, a price and a pull rate at once. That normalised count is turned into a SET pack scale using the card’s pull rate (every card in a set is an independent read on how many packs exist, pooled by median), then brought back down to this card by its own pull rate. The band is a tertile of the result across every card that clears the gates.
Nobody has ever published a Pokémon print run, and this does not recover one — it is an ORDER, not a count. It reads surviving graded supply across PSA, CGC and ACE, so ungraded and sealed stock are invisible to it. What it is checked against: the model puts Black & White at the bottom of the catalog and modern Scarlet & Violet at the top, which is where the smallest and largest print runs actually are.
AbilitiesAbility Feather ArrowOnce during your turn (before your attack), you may put 2 damage counters on 1 of your opponent's Pokémon.
AttacksGCC Razor Leaf · 90Cost: Grass · Colorless · ColorlessG Hollow Hunt-GXCost: GrassPut 3 cards from your discard pile into your hand. (You can't use more than 1 GX attack in a game.)
WeaknessFire ×2
Retreat2
LegalStandard ✗not legal · Expanded ✓legal
EvidenceEvidenceThe specific observations the explanation rests on. If this row is thin, treat the explanation as thin — it is the only thing holding it up.
Evidence: item-basis daily bars, TCGplayer active listings, absorption read ("Insufficient data: 0 inventory observation(s) in the trailing 30d window (need >= 4).").
ConfidenceConfidenceHow much weight to put on the primary explanation, given how much of the evidence actually resolved. It qualifies the row above; it never adds to it.
Confidence: 90% (floor-confidence 14/100), based on 972 days of observations.
What would disprove itWhat would disprove itThe observation that would break the primary explanation. It is what makes the reading falsifiable rather than unfalsifiable — and it is the thing to watch for next.
This read would be wrong if active listings rebound above 0 while sold median keeps falling.
CatalogCard identity: set, number, rarity, finish, release date. It dates from the printing itself, so an old reading here is expected and is not staleness.
Aug 23, 2019
7.1y
98%
No
Guide priceA calculated market guide — a model of where the product is trading. Never a confirmed sale, and always marked Modelled.
Oct 13, 2026
23h
90%
Yes
Inventory countHow many copies and listings stand on the book. What depth, supply and absorption are measured against.
Sep 12, 2026
32d
70%
No
Population censusA grader's published count of the copies it has slabbed at each grade. A record of what was submitted and kept, never the odds a copy grades.
Oct 12, 2026
2d
60%
No
Raw · Normal · Near MintWhat every row above was gathered for — one printing, in this one finish and condition or grade. Change either switcher in the header and you are reading a different one; the page's own URL is the address of exactly this one.pq-quant-2026.10.0The version of the scoring and analytics formulas that produced everything on this page. Two figures computed under different versions are not comparable, which is why the version is stated rather than assumed.
49
Best expected return across grading vendors, half a point per percent — the optionality on top of the raw thesis, never the thesis itself.
Value vs fair17%no readingFair value returned UNKNOWN — too few comparable prints to anchor an estimate.
Money flow11%no readingNo confirmed prints with a contemporaneous ask to classify against.
Book pressure11%no readingNeeds a 30-day inventory change, or book counts spanning ≥3 days that move at all and rest on ≥8 listings. Collection of `inventory_observations` began 2026-09-02.
Liquidity9%no readingFewer than two of the four participation readings could be measured — no trade count, and no book to read a queue or a seller base off.
Manipulation risk9%no readingNo visible ask book, so there is no control cost to band.
Seller concentration5%no readingThe venue attributes no seller identity to these asks.
Reprint risk5%no readingPrint status is unestablished — no shelf observation and no recorded reprint event.
The bottom line is a weighted mean of the signals that reported, renormalised so their weights sum to 1. Nothing defaults to a neutral 50: an input with no evidence is reweighted away and its absence is charged as a confidence penalty. Risk rows (manipulation, concentration, reprint) enter inverted. Data quality carries no weight at all — it decides whether the verdict may be spoken, because knowing a lot about a card is not a reason to buy it. Competitive meta sits OUTSIDE the weighted mean as a capped bonus added after it: a card nobody plays is never marked down for that, and a card the meta is built on can be marked up for it.
Risk-wtdRisk-wtdThe same return weighted by the odds of each grade, not just the 10 — the number to compare graders on, because a high P(10) at a high fee can lose to a lower one. A leading ≈ means the full grade distribution was unavailable and a coarser method stood in. Higher is better.
ACE
$24.39ACE Basic — the cheapest tier accepting single-card submissions, read 2026-10-06. £18.00 converted at GBP/USD 1.355 (2026-09-01) — a conversion, not a quoted USD price. Cheaper tiers you cannot use today: Core $16.26, Value $20.33.
85.6%95% interval 78.4%–90.7% on n=125. A share of what was submitted and kept, not submission odds.
$94.35What a 10 from this grader actually sells for. The superscript says what kind of evidence that is — a sale, an unsold listing, or the provider’s own modelled guide.
+19%+$12.91 on a $68.94 cost basis.
≈+5%No ACE price below grade 10 exists at any basis, so a miss is valued at the raw reference price — fee and shipping sunk for a slab the market pays no premium for.
BGS
$79.95BGS Express — the cheapest tier accepting single-card submissions, read 2026-09-01. Cheaper tiers you cannot use today: Base $14.95.
—The share of this card’s submissions to this grader that came back a 10, from its own population census. It is what WAS submitted and kept, not the odds your particular copy grades — a card people only submit when it looks perfect reads high here for that reason alone.
—No 10 price is on file for BGS, so no return can be computed for it — an absence, never a zero.
—Return if the card grades a 10 and sells at that price: (10 price − raw price − fee) over what you put in. The BEST case, before any probability is applied. Higher is better.
—Risk-weighted ROI withheld: no BGS population total, so P(10) has no honest denominator.
CGC
$20.00CGC Economy — the cheapest tier accepting single-card submissions, read 2026-10-06. Cheaper tiers you cannot use today: Bulk $17.00.
40.0%95% interval 36.5%–43.7% on n=707. A share of what was submitted and kept, not submission odds.
$75.00What a 10 from this grader actually sells for. The superscript says what kind of evidence that is — a sale, an unsold listing, or the provider’s own modelled guide.
+1%+$0.51 on a $64.55 cost basis.
≈-31%Only 1% of the CGC distribution is priced, so this falls back to P(10)·ROI(10) + (1−P(10))·ROI(pooled sub-10 price).
PSA
$59.99PSA Standard — the cheapest tier accepting single-card submissions, read 2026-10-06. Cheaper tiers you cannot use today: Value Bulk $24.99, Value $32.99.
60.0%95% interval 58.4%–61.6% on n=3457. A share of what was submitted and kept, not submission odds.
$97.50What a 10 from this grader actually sells for. The superscript says what kind of evidence that is — a sale, an unsold listing, or the provider’s own modelled guide.
-19%-$19.96 on a $104.54 cost basis.
-42%Risk-weighted across all 9 PSA rungs; 99% of the distribution carried its own price, the remaining 1% valued at the pooled sub-10 price.
SGC
$79.00†No published SGC fee verified — this is the generic fallback, not SGC's price.
—The share of this card’s submissions to this grader that came back a 10, from its own population census. It is what WAS submitted and kept, not the odds your particular copy grades — a card people only submit when it looks perfect reads high here for that reason alone.
—No 10 price is on file for SGC, so no return can be computed for it — an absence, never a zero.
—Return if the card grades a 10 and sells at that price: (10 price − raw price − fee) over what you put in. The BEST case, before any probability is applied. Higher is better.
—Risk-weighted ROI withheld: no SGC population total, so P(10) has no honest denominator. Fee is the generic $79.00 fallback — SGC's own published price is not in the fee table.
TAG
$59.95TAG Standard — the cheapest tier accepting single-card submissions, read 2026-10-06. Cheaper tiers you cannot use today: Basic $22.00.
—The share of this card’s submissions to this grader that came back a 10, from its own population census. It is what WAS submitted and kept, not the odds your particular copy grades — a card people only submit when it looks perfect reads high here for that reason alone.
—No 10 price is on file for TAG, so no return can be computed for it — an absence, never a zero.
—Return if the card grades a 10 and sells at that price: (10 price − raw price − fee) over what you put in. The BEST case, before any probability is applied. Higher is better.
—Risk-weighted ROI withheld: no TAG population total, so P(10) has no honest denominator.
