Pikachu — 26/83Raw · Normal · Near MintEvery price, print, listing and score on this page belongs to this one printing in this one condition or grade — switch either dropdown and you are looking at a different one.
A different printing of this card — a reverse holo, a promo stamp, another language. Choosing one NAVIGATES: every price, print, listing and score on the page belongs to that printing instead, because they are separate instruments that trade at different prices.The condition or grade being priced. Each one is a separate instrument that trades at its own price, so choosing one replaces every figure on the page. “All conditions” and “All grades” are a union of the siblings — their tape, listings and volume are combined, with one sibling named as the reference for price and analytics.
▼FallingFallingPrice is declining with no absorption corroborating it — the default bearish read when nothing stronger fires. It says the trend, not how far it has left to run.▾UndervaluedUndervaluedThe market price sits below the blended fair-value band — not merely below its midpoint. The blend and its four components are on the FAIR VALUE card; the wider the band, the weaker this call.⇈AccumulationAccumulationBoth directions agree over the flow window: net dollars cleared at or above the prevailing ask, AND the top-decile-notional prints skewed the same way. Direction of confirmed prints only — never a forecast.1D+44.1%1D return+44.1%Change in the headline market price against the close 1 observed bar back. Bars exist only for days this card actually traded, so the span can be longer than the label's calendar reading.7D+28.8%7D return+28.8%Change in the headline market price against the close 7 observed bars back. Bars exist only for days this card actually traded, so the span can be longer than the label's calendar reading.30D+41.5%30D return+41.5%Change in the headline market price against the close 30 observed bars back. Bars exist only for days this card actually traded, so the span can be longer than the label's calendar reading.As of 13:17ZAs of 13:17ZThe market price, its 1D/7D/30D returns, the order book, the For Sale counts and today’s price bar as they stood when this page was built. The page itself is served from a shared cache, so this stamp — not the moment you loaded it — is how old these numbers are. Your browser re-reads them a moment after the page arrives and this line follows.
Mkt Price
$4.74item▲+44.1%
Last $4.74 · $6.23 delivered · 11h
Mkt Price$4.74 itemMedian item price of the day’s confirmed prints — item basis, not delivered. It is the basis TCGplayer’s own market guide and every wall tile are quoted on; the chart’s DELIVERED toggle re-quotes the same prints with their required shipping in. Last confirmed fixed-price sale: $4.74 at 2026-10-13T01:32:59.997Z. Delivered $6.23 with shipping. One trade, not a statistic — the figure above it is the day's median.
Fair Value
$4.05delivered
≈$3.31 item · Band $3.88–$4.16
Fair Value$4.05 deliveredBand is ±3.5% of the point estimate: 2 of 4 components available (excluded: depth clearing, auction clearing — 40% of weight reweighted away, 20% confidence penalty), on 43 observation(s) in the trailing 30d. Thin samples and missing components widen the band 1.40x over the raw component spread. Prints are weighted with a 3d half-life; it is clearing at $4.24 delivered over the last 72h (6.6 effective units). A weighted blend of independent estimates, quoted DELIVERED — item plus required shipping — where Mkt Price beside it may be item basis. Read the band, not the point: its width is the model's own confidence. On the ITEM basis TCGplayer’s guide is quoted on, that is about $3.31 — this card’s own prints carry a median delivered-minus-item wedge of $0.74, measured day by day, never an assumed postage rate. Clears at $4.24 delivered · last 72h · falling. The delivered, time-decayed VWAP of confirmed prints over the last 72h, 6.6 effective units behind it. The blended fair value is read against it — a delivered ask is not called undervalued until it sits below what the card actually clears for.
Liquidity
89/100
Good liquidity
Liquidity89 /100How easily a position clears, scored 0–100. Four readings, equally weighted, each independently nullable: trade rate (the chance it trades today, from 30d units sold), trade breadth (how many of the last 30 days carried a trade), queue clearance (30d units sold against the units on the board) and seller dispersion (how many different people are selling it). A reading nobody can measure is absent and the rest reweight — never filled in with a zero.
30D Vol
131units▲+52.3%
units · vs prior 30d
30D Vol131 units131 units over the last 30 days, on TCGplayer and eBay. Newest reading Oct 13, 2026. Against 86 in the 30 days before.
For Sale
4units
4 sellers
For Sale4 unitsEvery active fixed-price ask with a known delivered price. Auctions are a separate market and are never counted here.
Graded Pop
1,249·0.0%
across 3 graders
Graded Pop1,249Every slab reported by every grader we hold a census for, pooled. A share of what was submitted and kept — not the odds a copy grades 10.
No live auction bids — this market has no resting bid book.
Cross-Market BasisAsks are live fixed-price listings at delivered prices (item + required shipping). No bid side exists: this market has no resting bid book. There are no live auction bids and no published buylist for this instrument, so the bid side is empty rather than synthesized from asks, price history or a spread assumption.——
AskSize
Ask sideLive fixed-price listings, priced DELIVERED — item plus required shipping. Cheapest first; a listing whose shipping is unknown has no delivered price and is excluded rather than guessed at.
$3.741
$3.74 · 1 unit1 cum.Ask size at this price, and the running total through it from the cheapest ask — 1 unit are buyable at or under $3.74 delivered. The shaded staircase behind the row IS that running total.
$5.001
$5.00 · 1 unit2 cum.Ask size at this price, and the running total through it from the cheapest ask — 2 units are buyable at or under $5.00 delivered. The shaded staircase behind the row IS that running total.
$5.231
$5.23 · 1 unit3 cum.Ask size at this price, and the running total through it from the cheapest ask — 3 units are buyable at or under $5.23 delivered. The shaded staircase behind the row IS that running total.
Ask depth$19.21Ask depth$19.21Every live fixed-price ask summed at its DELIVERED price — what clearing the whole visible book would cost. There is no bid side to set it against: no auction has a bid on it and no buylist quotes this instrument, and an absent side is never drawn as a zero.
One candle per UTC day — the finest grain this market recordsOne candle per ISO week (Mon–Sun), rolled up from the daily barsOne candle per calendar month, rolled up from the daily barsitem — the sale price alone, excluding shipping. This is the basis TCGplayer’s own market guide is published on, and the basis every wall tile, screener row and watchlist quote uses, so it is what the headline compares against.delivered — item + required shipping, the basis every alarm, floor and fair value uses. A print whose shipping the venue never stated has no delivered price and is excluded from the bar rather than counted at its item price; a day with no priced print falls back to the guide, which is an item price and says so.
How each period is drawn. Candles and bars show the full observed open/high/low/close; line and area show the close alone. The DATA does not change with the mark.
Price scale (linear, log or percent), auto-scaling, and the note on exactly how these bars were built.
Expand the chart to the whole viewport. Same bars and same drawings — only the room they get changes.
Cursor — chart crosshair, pan and zoomTrend line — two pointsHorizontal line — one click, priced at the axisRay — two points, extended forwardZone — two cornersFibonacci retracement — anchor the move, start to endNote — click, then typeMeasure — drag for change, percent and barsMagnet — snap each new anchor to the nearest bar's open, high, low or close, so a line lands on an observation rather than between two of them.Nothing to clear — there are no drawings on this card.DRW
Fair valueUNDERVALUEDThe cheapest delivered ask sits more than 5% below the blended fair-value estimate (FAIR_VALUE_AT_FAIR_TOLERANCE_PCT).
Fair value $4.05 delivered, about $3.31 on the item basis; the cheapest delivered ask is 7.6% below it$4.05delivered-7.6%The cheapest delivered ask ($3.74) against the blended fair-value estimate.top 56%top 56% of 6,088 tracked on FV gap · Ranked against every tracked card as of Oct 13, 2026; the number above is live.
Clears at $4.24 delivered · last 72h · falling
The delivered, time-decayed VWAP of confirmed prints over the last 72h, 6.6 effective units behind it. The blended fair value is read against it — a delivered ask is not called undervalued until it sits below what the card actually clears for.
Sealed
—No MSRP on fileThese products are priced, but not one of them carries a recorded MSRP with a source behind it. An MSRP is somebody’s assertion rather than a published dataset, and an appreciation measured against nothing is not a judgement this card will invent. The prices are listed below; the comparison is what is missing.
15 of this set’s 18 sealed products carry a price; none carries a recorded MSRP to measure appreciation against.
Set supply · not this card’sThe set's wholesale supply, not this card's — bulk lifts every raw copy in the set.▼Low2 lots listed on 2026-10-13 — higher than 50% of the set's own readings over 29 readings in 90 days.2 lots
Supply
▲Tight supply4 listed units against a 4.4/day pace is 0.9 days of stock. Under 7d reads tight, 30d or more reads heavy.
4 units listed across 4 sellers — 0.9d of stock at the 30-day pace of 4.4/day.
Listed · 4 sellers · $19.214 unitsActive fixed-price asks with a known delivered price. Auctions are a separate market and never enter this count.Sold · 30d · 4.4/day131 unitsUnits over the last 30 days, on TCGplayer and eBay, against 86 in the 30 days before. Newest reading 2026-10-13.Graded1,249 slabsEvery slab reported by every grader we hold a census for, pooled. A share of what was submitted and kept — not the odds your copy grades 10.
Slab premium
▲Strong slab premiumThe dearest priced rung is PSA 10 at $390.79, 104.5× the $3.74 raw reference (cheapest delivered ask).
A PSA 10 is worth $390.79 — 104.5× the $3.74 raw cheapest delivered ask — and that is the provider’s modelled value, not a sale.
Dearest slab per grading company
Print scarcity
•No pull rateThe model turns graded population into a print scale using how often a card comes out of a pack, and we hold no pull rate for this card’s rarity. Without it the set’s scale cannot be brought down to this card.
The model turns graded population into a print scale using how often a card comes out of a pack, and we hold no pull rate for this card’s rarity. Without it the set’s scale cannot be brought down to this card.
Competitive play▼Not Standard-legalPublished as not legal in Standard, and in none of the 22,383 Standard decklists in the last 30 days.
Not legal in Standard, and in none of the 22,383 Standard decklists across 338 events, last 30 days.
Player floor$0.20The cheapest currently-priced Standard-legal print of this card: Pikachu, Temporal Forces. What it costs to put the card in a deck, which is not the same question as what THIS print is worth.Premium over floor24×This printing's headline price ($4.74) against the player floor ($0.20). What a player pays for THIS art rather than for the cheapest legal copy of the same card.
Why It's Moving
What changedWhat changedThe observable that moved, stated before any reason for it — the fact the rest of this panel has to account for.
Sold median moved +28.8% over the trailing 7 days and +41.5% over 30 days, last printing at $4.74. Active TCGplayer listings fell 0% over the same 7 days to 0.
Primary explanationPrimary explanationThe reading the evidence best supports. It is an explanation, never a forecast, and it is only as good as the Evidence row two lines down.
Primary read: Price trend scored 3/100 (composite weight 31%). — the largest single contributor to the current FALLING regime read.
AlternativeAlternativeA competing explanation the SAME evidence would also support. It is printed even when the primary looks strong: an explanation with no stated alternative is a story, not an analysis.
Alternative explanation: Relative strength scored 5/100 (composite weight 21%).. With 4 distinct sellers/observations in the trailing window, either read is defensible — this is not a high-conviction single-cause move.
EvidenceEvidenceWhat kind of fact this row is. A completed sale, a live ask and a calculated guide price are three different weights of evidence about the same number, and this column is the difference between them.
ObservedObservedThe day the fact was read — not the day the underlying event happened, and not today. An old date is an old reading.
AgeAgeHow long ago this row was read, as of the moment the page was computed.
ConfidenceConfidenceHow much weight this row carries where it feeds a model, from the resolver that matched it. Lower means a looser match or a thinner source, and a low-confidence row is reweighted rather than dropped.
ModelledModelledYes = a CALCULATED value (a guide price, an estimate); No = something actually observed (a sale, a listing, a census count). A modelled row is evidence about a model, not about the market.
$3.74Market price$3.74What the market is actually asking right now — the cheapest delivered price, or the newest confirmed print when no ladder exists. The card’s verdict is where this line falls against the band.$4.05Fair value$4.05The blend’s point estimate — the weighted centre of the four component reads listed below. It is the middle of a band, not a target: read the band’s width before the point.
Sales VWAP$4.08Trend anchor$3.99
$3.88The bottom of the stated fair-value band — the cheap end of the blend, not a floor and not a support level. A wider band is the model saying it is less sure, so the two ends are more informative together than the point between them.$4.16The top of the stated fair-value band — the rich end of the blend, not a ceiling and not a target. A wider band is the model saying it is less sure, so the two ends are more informative together than the point between them.
Sales VWAP$4.0867%Sales VWAP$4.08Time-decayed, unit-weighted mean delivered price of confirmed prints — the last 48h dominate.Weight 67% of the blend, after reweighting away the inputs with no evidence.Depth clearingN/A—Depth clearingN/AUnavailable in the trailing 30d window — reweighted away, not defaulted.No evidence for this input, so it carries no weight — the blend is the other components, reweighted.Trend anchor$3.9933%Trend anchor$3.99Last non-null trend value (SMA) of the price series, in delivered terms.Weight 33% of the blend, after reweighting away the inputs with no evidence.Auction clearingN/A—Auction clearingN/AUnavailable in the trailing 30d window — reweighted away, not defaulted.No evidence for this input, so it carries no weight — the blend is the other components, reweighted.
≈$3.31 item basis · ±3.5% band · 2 of 4 inputs · 43 obs / 30dBand is ±3.5% of the point estimate: 2 of 4 components available (excluded: depth clearing, auction clearing — 40% of weight reweighted away, 20% confidence penalty), on 43 observation(s) in the trailing 30d. Thin samples and missing components widen the band 1.40x over the raw component spread. Prints are weighted with a 3d half-life; it is clearing at $4.24 delivered over the last 72h (6.6 effective units).
›7.6% under fair — buy at $5.23 delivered.
Market safety
▲High riskOne buyer can set this price on at least one dimension: a spike here would outlive the 30-day window every number we publish is measured over, or the whole buyable book is inside a single ordinary order (under 5 units).
$19.21 clears the cheap side — 4 units, fewer than one ordinary order (0.04 book-months, 4 asks).
Book
10%·$3.74·$3.74 ask-40%Sweeping 10% of the visible book costs $3.74The next unbought ask after that sweep sits at $3.74 ask — -40% against today's cheapest.Visible asks only, at delivered prices. An unshipped listing has no delivered price and is not in this ladder.50%·$13.97·$5.23 ask-16%Sweeping 50% of the visible book costs $13.97The next unbought ask after that sweep sits at $5.23 ask — -16% against today's cheapest.Visible asks only, at delivered prices. An unshipped listing has no delivered price and is not in this ladder.80%·$19.21·$5.24 ask-16%Sweeping 80% of the visible book costs $19.21The next unbought ask after that sweep sits at $5.24 ask — -16% against today's cheapest.Visible asks only, at delivered prices. An unshipped listing has no delivered price and is not in this ladder.Book $19.21Total notional on the visible ask ladder, and the largest single seller's share of it. A book that is mostly one seller's inventory is one decision away from moving.Best ask vs fair · $3.74 vs $4.05-7.7%Best ask vs fair-7.7%$3.74 vs $4.05
Mechanics▾
Cost to +50%$19.21
clears the entire visible book
Days to absorb0.8
4 units to control
Book breadth1 level
4 units on the board
Book / 30d sold0.04x
30d traded $547.42
VenuesTCGplayer
The absorption ladder walks the visible delivered-price ask book cheapest-first: what each slice of the book costs, the ask it leaves marginal, and how far that sits from the last price the card actually traded at. Manipulation risk is the worse of two reads — how many days of this card’s own turnover it would take to absorb the cost of control, and whether the whole buyable book fits inside a single ordinary order.
Flow
—SteadyThis week's daily sold units overlap the middle half of the rest of the window, so no change in pace is separable from the noise. Trading at its own normal rate.
69 sold in 7d, 2.3× the 30d pace — 30d prints clear at $4.03 median, -22.9% vs the $5.23 floor.
This week 69 · last week 20 · 30d/wk 31
Recent prints
$6.23+19.1%11h ago$6.23 delivered, 1 unit, 2026-10-13T01:32:59.997ZMeasured against today's cheapest delivered ask — a print above it is information, not bad news.$3.29-37.1%1d ago$3.29 delivered, 1 unit, 2026-10-12T01:01:45.240ZMeasured against today's cheapest delivered ask — a print above it is information, not bad news.$4.46-14.7%2d ago$4.46 delivered, 1 unit, 2026-10-10T23:47:02.380ZMeasured against today's cheapest delivered ask — a print above it is information, not bad news.$4.20
Method▾
Daily units are the venue's own sold-quantity history, expanded off each bucket's real span, plus confirmed prints from the other side of the market. Prints come from the live sales tape at delivered prices. The floor is the cheapest delivered ask (item + required shipping) across venues — the same one FAIR VALUE prices against.
Over 30d: 43 confirmed print(s); net flow +$99.54 across 40 buy-side vs 23 sell-side unit(s); large prints (>= $12.12) were 33% of notional and skewed buy-side -> ACCUMULATING.
Bottom line
—Hold46/100 on the weighted composite: at or above 65 is a buy, at or below 35 a sell, and everything between is a hold.
46/100 across 7 of 11 inputs. For: liquidity reads 89/100. Against: price trend reads 3/100.
Price trend3Price trend3/1007-day and 30-day returns read against the noise of this card’s own series. Above 50 the price moved further than its own noise explains; below 50 it moved the other way. Withheld on a window with no confirmed print, where the line is the relay’s published guide and the return would be a reading of its revision schedule.Carries 13% of the composite.Liquidity89Liquidity89/100Four equally-weighted readings of what counterparties did: the chance it trades today, how many of the last 30 days carried a trade, 30-day units sold against the units on the board, and how many different people are selling it. A reading nobody can measure is absent and the rest reweight.Carries 9% of the composite.Manipulation risk85Manipulation risk85/100RISK-ORIENTED. What it costs to walk the visible book up 50%, against both real trailing volume and one buyer’s cheque book. High here is bad, and it enters the composite inverted.Carries 9% of the composite, inverted: 85 risk entered as 15.Relative strength5Relative strength5/100This card’s 30-day return as a percentile of every tracked card that has one. 50 is "moved with the market". Declines to speak until the ranked universe is large enough to mean it.Carries 7% of the composite.Value vs fair65Value vs fair65/100The cheapest delivered ask against the blended fair-value estimate, two points per percent. Above 50 the card is trading under what the evidence says it is worth. Withheld entirely when fair value declares itself UNKNOWN — a discount measured against an untrustworthy anchor is not a discount.Carries 17% of the composite.Book pressure70Book pressure70/100Supply leaving the market or refilling it. Prefers the 30-day inventory change; falls back to the venue's own listing count over the readings held, capped tighter because a shorter window is weaker evidence. Withheld on a count that never moves, or on a book so small that one listing's arrival pins the percent to a rail.Carries 11% of the composite.Money flow57Money flow57/100Confirmed prints split into buy-side and sell-side against the prevailing ask, on a log scale — one decade of imbalance earns the full swing, because 100:1 is a thinner sample saying what 10:1 already said.Carries 11% of the composite.
7 of 11 inputs · 77% weight · -12% confidence▾
Not reading yet: grading upside, seller concentration, reprint risk, scarcity.
Price trend13%37-day and 30-day returns read against the noise of this card’s own series. Above 50 the price moved further than its own noise explains; below 50 it moved the other way. Withheld on a window with no confirmed print, where the line is the relay’s published guide and the return would be a reading of its revision schedule.Liquidity9%89Four equally-weighted readings of what counterparties did: the chance it trades today, how many of the last 30 days carried a trade, 30-day units sold against the units on the board, and how many different people are selling it. A reading nobody can measure is absent and the rest reweight.Manipulation risk9%85RISK-ORIENTED. What it costs to walk the visible book up 50%, against both real trailing volume and one buyer’s cheque book. High here is bad, and it enters the composite inverted.Relative strength7%5This card’s 30-day return as a percentile of every tracked card that has one. 50 is "moved with the market". Declines to speak until the ranked universe is large enough to mean it.
The Generations Booster Pack's most recent plotted day carries the provider’s daily guide value — no sale was recorded that day.
Indexed to each product’s own first stored day = 100. Generations Booster Pack in front, 14 behind · dashed = guide price, no sale that day.Each line is that product’s own price divided by its own first stored day and multiplied by 100, so every series starts on the dotted rule and the axis measures APPRECIATION rather than price. Dollars could not do this job here: a booster pack and a booster box differ by two orders of magnitude, and on a shared dollar axis the pack would sit flat on the floor of the plot however far it had actually travelled. The Generations Booster Pack is the base unit and is drawn in front; the rest are drawn behind it, and each one’s own numbers are in the table below. A dashed stretch is a run of days with no recorded sale, carrying the provider’s daily guide value — a quoted price, never a trade.
Appreciation vs MSRP
ProductPriceMSRPvs MSRPEvery sealed product the catalog holds for this set, ordered by how standard a unit each is for tracking a set’s sealed price. PRICE is the product’s last stored day — a sale where one was recorded, the provider’s daily guide value where none was, and the row’s hover says which. MSRP is blank wherever no source is recorded against one, because an MSRP with nobody behind it is not a fact. VS MSRP is the price against that MSRP, as a percentage up to a doubling and as a multiple past it.
Generations Booster Pack$311.42——Generations Booster Pack—Generations Booster Pack. Quoted at $311.42 on Oct 12, 2026 — a guide price, with no sale recorded that day. No MSRP is recorded against this product, so there is nothing to measure a premium from; the blank is a missing MSRP, not a missing price.Mythical Pokemon Collection Box [Keldeo]
Method▾
Sealed product from Generations — the set this card was printed in. We track which set a product belongs to, not which cards are inside it. Appreciation is each product’s last stored price against its own recorded MSRP, in percent. The card’s call is the MEDIAN of those percentages across the products that have an MSRP — a median rather than a mean, so one outlier SKU cannot carry a whole set — and a product with no MSRP on file is left out of that aggregate rather than counted as zero; it still lists below with its price. MSRP is somebody’s assertion rather than a published dataset, so it is shown only where a source is recorded against it, and that source is on the row’s hover. The bands are a legend for the percentage the card prints beside them: within ±5% is at MSRP, which is this repo’s own fair-value tolerance; up to +25% is a slight premium; up to +100% a significant one; at or above +100% the price has at least doubled and the figure is stated as a multiple, because a four-digit percentage is not a number anybody reads. Each price line takes a day’s observed low/high sale range and plots its midpoint; on a day with no recorded sale it carries the provider’s own daily guide value instead — a quoted price, not a transaction — and those days are drawn dashed, never described as trades. Every line is indexed to its own first stored day = 100, so the chart compares appreciation between products rather than price levels: a booster pack and a booster box cannot honestly share a dollar axis.
Restock
—Not trackedThis set has sealed products, but no retailer has ever been read for any of them. Not tracked is not sold out.
18 sealed products in this set, and no retailer has ever been read for any of them — which is not the same as sold out.
Best Buy: not currently tracked.Walmart: not currently tracked.Target: not currently tracked.GameStop: not currently tracked.
0 retailers tracked · 4 not monitoredEvery retailer in the registry has a cell, including the ones that are not tracked — a shelf nobody is watching reads UNKNOWN, never 'sold out'. One store's empty shelf is not the whole market, and an untracked one is not evidence about the market at all.Set-level: Generations sealed products, not this cardRetail rows attach to SEALED products only — no big-box retailer sells single cards — so this whole card is the SET's shelf availability. It is not a statement about this card, and a card's own price is unaffected by it.Print status unknownThere is no published source for whether a Pokémon product is still being printed — The Pokémon Company has never announced print cessation in any region, and the annual rotation announcement is about tournament legality, not production. So this is an inference, never a fact, and the verdict above comes from observed shelf readings instead. Nothing direct is on file here — no shelf reading either way and no recorded reprint announcement — and release age plus a price ratio is a hypothesis, not a print status, so no estimate is made.
Shelf prices are pre-tax and exclude shipping — never comparable to a delivered price.Retail shelf prices are pre-tax and exclude shipping, so they are not comparable to the delivered marketplace prices shown elsewhere on this page. They are never fed into a delivered-price floor.Method▾
Each row is one tracked retailer's most recent reading of one of the set's sealed products, at that retailer's own SKU. A restock is an observed OUT_OF_STOCK → IN_STOCK transition in that SKU's reading history, never a change we inferred from a price or a gap. Shelf prices are pre-tax and exclude shipping, so they are not delivered prices and are never fed into a floor.
Absorption
—Building historyToo few readings of the book to tell a drawdown from noise. The count is on the card — see the note below.
24 readings of this book so far, one per 1 day, over 30d. The direction reads once there are enough of them to tell a drawdown from noise.
Method▾
Each reading takes the venue's own listing count for this card in this condition — the whole book — at that instant. The direction is classified by the platform's absorption reading over that series: a book drawn down with demand behind it reads as accumulation, one that refills after a drawdown reads as distribution. Copies and sellers come from the cheapest asks we sample, not from the book, and are labelled as such. Sold units are confirmed prints from the live tape over the same span, and are shown only when the tape reaches back past the first reading.
The direction is classified over the platform-standard 30-day trailing window. That window is a scope, not a history: it contains exactly the readings counted on this card and no others — and only readings that counted the venue’s own book, never a sampled one trended against a counted one.
PSA 10$390.79guideThe provider’s MODELLED value for this grade — not a sale and not even an offer. Often extrapolated from the grades that did sell.104×PSA 10 — $390.79, 104.5× raw
Raw$3.74askA live listing. Nobody has paid this.1.0×Raw — $3.74, 1.0× rawThe cheapest copy actually listed for sale, delivered — item plus required shipping. An offer, not a price anybody has paid. Every multiple on this ladder is taken against it.
A PSA 10 fetches 226% more than a CGC 10 — though one of the two is a modelled guide price, not a sale.
One rung down, a PSA 9 is $65.00 — 17.4× raw.
Grading ROI
—Insufficient dataACE: No ACE population total for this printing, so P(10) has no honest denominator.
Best on ACE: No ACE population total for this printing, so P(10) has no honest denominator. PSA populations aren't split by finish for this card yet, so we don't use them.
VendorVendorThe grading company, one row each. Rows are the graders we hold both a fee schedule and a population census for — a grader we cannot price is left out rather than estimated.
FeeFeeThe all-in submission cost per card at this grader: grading tier plus shipping both ways and insurance, as published. A † marks a fee we could not read from a published schedule and had to carry from a prior reading. Lower is better.
P(10)P(10)The share of this card’s submissions to this grader that came back a 10, from its own population census. It is what WAS submitted and kept, not the odds your particular copy grades — a card people only submit when it looks perfect reads high here for that reason alone.
10 price10 priceWhat a 10 from this grader actually sells for. The superscript says what kind of evidence that is — a sale, an unsold listing, or the provider’s own modelled guide.
ROI(10)ROI(10)Return if the card grades a 10 and sells at that price: (10 price − raw price − fee) over what you put in. The BEST case, before any probability is applied. Higher is better.
Risk-wtdRisk-wtdThe same return weighted by the odds of each grade, not just the 10 — the number to compare graders on, because a high P(10) at a high fee can lose to a lower one. A leading ≈ means the full grade distribution was unavailable and a coarser method stood in. Higher is better.
ACE
$24.39ACE Basic — the cheapest tier accepting single-card submissions, read 2026-10-06. £18.00 converted at GBP/USD 1.355 (2026-09-01) — a conversion, not a quoted USD price. Cheaper tiers you cannot use today: Core $16.26, Value $20.33.
—The share of this card’s submissions to this grader that came back a 10, from its own population census. It is what WAS submitted and kept, not the odds your particular copy grades — a card people only submit when it looks perfect reads high here for that reason alone.
—No 10 price is on file for ACE, so no return can be computed for it — an absence, never a zero.
—Return if the card grades a 10 and sells at that price: (10 price − raw price − fee) over what you put in. The BEST case, before any probability is applied. Higher is better.
—Risk-weighted ROI withheld: no ACE population total, so P(10) has no honest denominator.
CGC
$20.00CGC Economy — the cheapest tier accepting single-card submissions, read 2026-10-06. Cheaper tiers you cannot use today: Bulk $17.00.
—The share of this card’s submissions to this grader that came back a 10, from its own population census. It is what WAS submitted and kept, not the odds your particular copy grades — a card people only submit when it looks perfect reads high here for that reason alone.
Pre-grade this card →Photograph your own copy front and back for centering, wear and the odds of each grade. An estimate, not a grade.
$3.74 raw (cheapest delivered ask) + $24.39 ACE Basic + $25.00 ship/ins = $53.13 · less 13.25% sale fee · 45d lockup
Set read from
14 cards
Every card in the set with a price, a population and a pull rate gives an independent estimate of how many packs of the set exist. They are pooled by median, so one mis-joined card cannot move the answer.
Method▾
Graded population is print run × how often anyone bothers grading it, and the second factor moves with VALUE — so population is divided by price^0.606, the elasticity fitted across 3,826 cards that carry a population, a price and a pull rate at once. That normalised count is turned into a SET pack scale using the card’s pull rate (every card in a set is an independent read on how many packs exist, pooled by median), then brought back down to this card by its own pull rate. The band is a tertile of the result across every card that clears the gates.
Nobody has ever published a Pokémon print run, and this does not recover one — it is an ORDER, not a count. It reads surviving graded supply across PSA, CGC and ACE, so ungraded and sealed stock are invisible to it. What it is checked against: the model puts Black & White at the bottom of the catalog and modern Scarlet & Violet at the top, which is where the smallest and largest print runs actually are.
Units of THIS printing sold in the 30 days ending October 13, 2026, against the 30 days before that (86). Demand at a table and demand in the market are different measurements; this is the second one.
Meta vs priceNot enough history (7 weeks)Spearman rank correlation of weekly share against weekly median price over the trailing 26 weeks, on the weeks carrying both. Printed only at 8 weeks or more; below that the count is stated instead of a coefficient off a handful of readings.
Meta share · % of Standard decklists (right axis)Median price · this print, $ (left axis)Units sold per day (bars)
Does the meta move the price? Share of Standard decklists running this card against this print's median sale price and units sold, day by day; the rank correlation above is printed once 8 weeks exist.
94.5% of card lines in these decklists matched a card in our catalog; an unmatched line is never counted. Online events only, not Regionals or Worlds. Tournament results →
Card text▾
HP60
TypesLightning
StageBasic
AttacksC NuzzleCost: ColorlessFlip a coin. If heads, your opponent's Active Pokémon is now Paralyzed.CC Quick Attack · 20+Cost: Colorless · ColorlessFlip a coin. If heads, this attack does 10 more damage.
WeaknessFighting ×2
ResistanceMetal -20
Retreat1
LegalStandard ✗not legal · Expanded ✓legal
EvidenceEvidenceThe specific observations the explanation rests on. If this row is thin, treat the explanation as thin — it is the only thing holding it up.
Evidence: item-basis daily bars, TCGplayer active listings, absorption read ("Over 30d: inventory -17.9%, cheap depth no data, sales velocity no data -> ABSORPTION.").
ConfidenceConfidenceHow much weight to put on the primary explanation, given how much of the evidence actually resolved. It qualifies the row above; it never adds to it.
Confidence: 57% (floor-confidence 37/100), based on 979 days of observations.
What would disprove itWhat would disprove itThe observation that would break the primary explanation. It is what makes the reading falsifiable rather than unfalsifiable — and it is the thing to watch for next.
This read would be wrong if active listings rebound above 0 while sold median keeps falling.
CatalogCard identity: set, number, rarity, finish, release date. It dates from the printing itself, so an old reading here is expected and is not staleness.
Feb 22, 2016
10.6y
98%
No
Live askA copy offered for sale right now. An ask is what a seller wants, not what anyone paid — it bounds the price from above until it clears.
Oct 13, 2026
5h
90%
No
Price statisticAn observed figure computed over several rows rather than one print — a delivered floor, a published median over a window.
Oct 13, 2026
5h
90%
No
Confirmed saleA completed transaction at a known price — the strongest evidence on this page. Prices are delivered (item + required shipping).
Oct 13, 2026
12h
85%
No
Inventory countHow many copies and listings stand on the book. What depth, supply and absorption are measured against.
Oct 13, 2026
5h
70%
No
Guide priceA calculated market guide — a model of where the product is trading. Never a confirmed sale, and always marked Modelled.
Oct 12, 2026
2d
60%
Yes
Population censusA grader's published count of the copies it has slabbed at each grade. A record of what was submitted and kept, never the odds a copy grades.
Sep 8, 2026
35d
60%
No
Raw · Normal · Near MintWhat every row above was gathered for — one printing, in this one finish and condition or grade. Change either switcher in the header and you are reading a different one; the page's own URL is the address of exactly this one.pq-quant-2026.10.0The version of the scoring and analytics formulas that produced everything on this page. Two figures computed under different versions are not comparable, which is why the version is stated rather than assumed.
-19.7%
2d ago
$4.20 delivered, 1 unit, 2026-10-10T23:47:02.323ZMeasured against today's cheapest delivered ask — a print above it is information, not bad news.
$3.98-23.9%2d ago$3.98 delivered, 1 unit, 2026-10-10T23:47:02.293ZMeasured against today's cheapest delivered ask — a print above it is information, not bad news.
$3.95·×2-24.5%2d ago$3.95 delivered, 2 units, 2026-10-10T23:47:02.267ZMeasured against today's cheapest delivered ask — a print above it is information, not bad news.
Value vs fair17%65The cheapest delivered ask against the blended fair-value estimate, two points per percent. Above 50 the card is trading under what the evidence says it is worth. Withheld entirely when fair value declares itself UNKNOWN — a discount measured against an untrustworthy anchor is not a discount.
Book pressure11%70Supply leaving the market or refilling it. Prefers the 30-day inventory change; falls back to the venue's own listing count over the readings held, capped tighter because a shorter window is weaker evidence. Withheld on a count that never moves, or on a book so small that one listing's arrival pins the percent to a rail.
Money flow11%57Confirmed prints split into buy-side and sell-side against the prevailing ask, on a log scale — one decade of imbalance earns the full swing, because 100:1 is a thinner sample saying what 10:1 already said.
Scarcity7%no readingNeither scarcity read is available: no pull rate on file for this card’s rarity, and no print-scale estimate for its set (or the set is inside its first 12 months, where graded population has not accumulated yet).
Grading upside6%no readingNo priced grade outcomes, so expected return is unknown.
Seller concentration5%no readingThe venue attributes no seller identity to these asks.
Reprint risk5%no readingPrint status is unestablished — no shelf observation and no recorded reprint event.
The bottom line is a weighted mean of the signals that reported, renormalised so their weights sum to 1. Nothing defaults to a neutral 50: an input with no evidence is reweighted away and its absence is charged as a confidence penalty. Risk rows (manipulation, concentration, reprint) enter inverted. Data quality carries no weight at all — it decides whether the verdict may be spoken, because knowing a lot about a card is not a reason to buy it. Competitive meta sits OUTSIDE the weighted mean as a capped bonus added after it: a card nobody plays is never marked down for that, and a card the meta is built on can be marked up for it.
$369.69——
Mythical Pokemon Collection Box [Keldeo]—Mythical Pokemon Collection Box [Keldeo]. Quoted at $369.69 on Sep 26, 2026 — a guide price, with no sale recorded that day. No MSRP is recorded against this product, so there is nothing to measure a premium from; the blank is a missing MSRP, not a missing price.
Mythical Pokemon Collection Box [Meloetta]$414.99——Mythical Pokemon Collection Box [Meloetta]—Mythical Pokemon Collection Box [Meloetta]. Quoted at $414.99 on Oct 12, 2026 — a guide price, with no sale recorded that day. No MSRP is recorded against this product, so there is nothing to measure a premium from; the blank is a missing MSRP, not a missing price.
Mythical Pokemon Collection Box [Genesect]$415.00——Mythical Pokemon Collection Box [Genesect]—Mythical Pokemon Collection Box [Genesect]. Quoted at $415.00 on Oct 12, 2026 — a guide price, with no sale recorded that day. No MSRP is recorded against this product, so there is nothing to measure a premium from; the blank is a missing MSRP, not a missing price.
Mythical Pokemon Collection Box [Arceus]$439.96——Mythical Pokemon Collection Box [Arceus]—Mythical Pokemon Collection Box [Arceus]. Quoted at $439.96 on Sep 13, 2026 — a guide price, with no sale recorded that day. No MSRP is recorded against this product, so there is nothing to measure a premium from; the blank is a missing MSRP, not a missing price.
Mythical Pokemon Collection Box [Celebi]$543.33——Mythical Pokemon Collection Box [Celebi]—Mythical Pokemon Collection Box [Celebi]. Quoted at $543.33 on Oct 12, 2026 — a guide price, with no sale recorded that day. No MSRP is recorded against this product, so there is nothing to measure a premium from; the blank is a missing MSRP, not a missing price.
Mythical Pokemon Collection Box [Jirachi]$550.33——Mythical Pokemon Collection Box [Jirachi]—Mythical Pokemon Collection Box [Jirachi]. Quoted at $550.33 on Oct 12, 2026 — a guide price, with no sale recorded that day. No MSRP is recorded against this product, so there is nothing to measure a premium from; the blank is a missing MSRP, not a missing price.
Mythical Pokemon Collection Box [Manaphy]$555.00——Mythical Pokemon Collection Box [Manaphy]—Mythical Pokemon Collection Box [Manaphy]. Quoted at $555.00 on Oct 12, 2026 — a guide price, with no sale recorded that day. No MSRP is recorded against this product, so there is nothing to measure a premium from; the blank is a missing MSRP, not a missing price.
$120.00What a 10 from this grader actually sells for. The superscript says what kind of evidence that is — a sale, an unsold listing, or the provider’s own modelled guide.
+114%+$55.36 on a $48.74 cost basis.
—Risk-weighted ROI withheld: no CGC population total, so P(10) has no honest denominator.
PSA
$59.99PSA Standard — the cheapest tier accepting single-card submissions, read 2026-10-06. Cheaper tiers you cannot use today: Value Bulk $24.99, Value $32.99.
—The share of this card’s submissions to this grader that came back a 10, from its own population census. It is what WAS submitted and kept, not the odds your particular copy grades — a card people only submit when it looks perfect reads high here for that reason alone.
$390.79What a 10 from this grader actually sells for. The superscript says what kind of evidence that is — a sale, an unsold listing, or the provider’s own modelled guide.guideThe provider’s MODELLED value for this grade — not a sale and not even an offer. Often extrapolated from the grades that did sell.
+282%+$250.28 on a $88.73 cost basis.
—Risk-weighted ROI withheld: no PSA population total, so P(10) has no honest denominator.
