Raichu — 14/102

Not enough completed auctions to price a demand spread for this instrument.

No graded population or grading economics modelled for this printing.

Over 30d: inventory -4.5%, cheap depth no data, sales velocity no data -> NEUTRAL.

What changed

Sold median moved -1.9% over the trailing 7 days and -2.2% over 30 days, last printing at $4.05. Active TCGplayer listings fell 8% over the same 7 days to 364.

Primary explanation

Primary read: Liquidity scored 72/100 (composite weight 10%). — the largest single contributor to the current FLOOR_FORMING regime read.

Alternative

Alternative explanation: Reprint supply risk scored 15/100 (composite weight 6%).. With 0 distinct sellers/observations in the trailing window, either read is defensible — this is not a high-conviction single-cause move.

Evidence

Evidence: raw~tcgdex:base1-14:EN:NORMAL~NM|SOLD_MEDIAN|TCGPLAYER, raw~tcgdex:base1-14:EN:NORMAL~NM|LISTING_COUNT|TCGPLAYER, absorption read ("Over 30d: inventory -4.5%, cheap depth no data, sales velocity no data -> NEUTRAL.").

Confidence

Confidence: 30% (floor-confidence 47/100), based on 30 days of observations.

What would disprove it

This read would be wrong if active listings rebound above 419 while sold median keeps falling.