Mightyena — 243/217Raw · Holo · Near MintEvery price, print, listing and score on this page belongs to this one printing in this one condition or grade — switch either dropdown and you are looking at a different one.
A different printing of this card — a reverse holo, a promo stamp, another language. Choosing one NAVIGATES: every price, print, listing and score on the page belongs to that printing instead, because they are separate instruments that trade at different prices.The condition or grade being priced. Each one is a separate instrument that trades at its own price, so choosing one replaces every figure on the page. “All conditions” and “All grades” are a union of the siblings — their tape, listings and volume are combined, with one sibling named as the reference for price and analytics.
▲MarkupMarkupA sustained positive trend with inventory under control — the book is not refilling as fast as it is being taken.▾UndervaluedUndervaluedThe market price sits below the blended fair-value band — not merely below its midpoint. The blend and its four components are on the FAIR VALUE card; the wider the band, the weaker this call.⇈AccumulationAccumulationBoth directions agree over the flow window: net dollars cleared at or above the prevailing ask, AND the top-decile-notional prints skewed the same way. Direction of confirmed prints only — never a forecast.1D+6.3%1D return+6.3%Change in the headline market price against the close 1 observed bar back. Bars exist only for days this card actually traded, so the span can be longer than the label's calendar reading.7D+15.0%7D return+15.0%Change in the headline market price against the close 7 observed bars back. Bars exist only for days this card actually traded, so the span can be longer than the label's calendar reading.30D-20.4%30D return-20.4%Change in the headline market price against the close 30 observed bars back. Bars exist only for days this card actually traded, so the span can be longer than the label's calendar reading.As of 11:25ZAs of 11:25ZThe market price, its 1D/7D/30D returns, the order book, the For Sale counts and today’s price bar as they stood when this page was built. The page itself is served from a shared cache, so this stamp — not the moment you loaded it — is how old these numbers are. Your browser re-reads them a moment after the page arrives and this line follows.
Mkt Price
$5.38item▲+6.3%
Last $5.60 · 6h
Mkt Price$5.38 itemMedian item price of the day’s confirmed prints — item basis, not delivered. It is the basis TCGplayer’s own market guide and every wall tile are quoted on; the chart’s DELIVERED toggle re-quotes the same prints with their required shipping in. Last confirmed fixed-price sale: $5.60 at 2026-10-13T05:05:40.187Z. Shipping was free, so delivered is the same number. One trade, not a statistic — the figure above it is the day's median.
Fair Value
$5.69delivered
≈$5.65 item · Band $5.54–$5.93
Fair Value$5.69 deliveredBand is ±3.4% of the point estimate: 2 of 4 components available (excluded: trend anchor — a trailing average on a confirmed rise, auction clearing — 35% of weight reweighted away, 18% confidence penalty), on 411 observation(s) in the trailing 30d. Thin samples and missing components widen the band 1.35x over the raw component spread. Prints are weighted with a 3d half-life; it is clearing at $5.69 delivered over the last 48h (49.9 effective units), and the rise is confirmed, so the point estimate is held at that clearing price rather than at the blend's $5.51. A weighted blend of independent estimates, quoted DELIVERED — item plus required shipping — where Mkt Price beside it may be item basis. Read the band, not the point: its width is the model's own confidence. On the ITEM basis TCGplayer’s guide is quoted on, that is about $5.65 — this card’s own prints carry a median delivered-minus-item wedge of $0.04, measured day by day, never an assumed postage rate. Held at the $5.69 clearing price — last 48h, rising confirmed. The delivered, time-decayed VWAP of confirmed prints over the last 48h, 49.9 effective units behind it. Fair value is held AT this price rather than above it: the rising is confirmed, so a 30-day blend would be quoting last month’s price as this week’s.
Liquidity
99/100
Good liquidity
Liquidity99 /100How easily a position clears, scored 0–100. Four readings, equally weighted, each independently nullable: trade rate (the chance it trades today, from 30d units sold), trade breadth (how many of the last 30 days carried a trade), queue clearance (30d units sold against the units on the board) and seller dispersion (how many different people are selling it). A reading nobody can measure is absent and the rest reweight — never filled in with a zero.
30D Vol
821units▲+17.0%
units · vs prior 30d
30D Vol821 units821 units over the last 30 days, on TCGplayer and eBay. Newest reading Oct 13, 2026. Against 702 in the 30 days before.
For Sale
69units
55 sellers
For Sale69 unitsEvery active fixed-price ask with a known delivered price. Auctions are a separate market and are never counted here.
Graded Pop
2,996▲+44.2%
across 3 graders
Graded Pop2,996Every slab reported by every grader we hold a census for, pooled. A share of what was submitted and kept — not the odds a copy grades 10.
No live auction bids — this market has no resting bid book.
Cross-Market BasisAsks are live fixed-price listings at delivered prices (item + required shipping). No bid side exists: this market has no resting bid book. There are no live auction bids and no published buylist for this instrument, so the bid side is empty rather than synthesized from asks, price history or a spread assumption.——
AskSize
Ask sideLive fixed-price listings, priced DELIVERED — item plus required shipping. Cheapest first; a listing whose shipping is unknown has no delivered price and is excluded rather than guessed at.
$5.231
$5.23 · 1 unit1 cum.Ask size at this price, and the running total through it from the cheapest ask — 1 unit are buyable at or under $5.23 delivered. The shaded staircase behind the row IS that running total.
$5.494
$5.49 · 4 units5 cum.Ask size at this price, and the running total through it from the cheapest ask — 5 units are buyable at or under $5.49 delivered. The shaded staircase behind the row IS that running total.
$5.501
$5.50 · 1 unit6 cum.Ask size at this price, and the running total through it from the cheapest ask — 6 units are buyable at or under $5.50 delivered. The shaded staircase behind the row IS that running total.
Ask depth$414.26Ask depth$414.26Every live fixed-price ask summed at its DELIVERED price — what clearing the whole visible book would cost. There is no bid side to set it against: no auction has a bid on it and no buylist quotes this instrument, and an absent side is never drawn as a zero.
One candle per UTC day — the finest grain this market recordsOne candle per ISO week (Mon–Sun), rolled up from the daily barsOne candle per calendar month, rolled up from the daily barsitem — the sale price alone, excluding shipping. This is the basis TCGplayer’s own market guide is published on, and the basis every wall tile, screener row and watchlist quote uses, so it is what the headline compares against.delivered — item + required shipping, the basis every alarm, floor and fair value uses. A print whose shipping the venue never stated has no delivered price and is excluded from the bar rather than counted at its item price; a day with no priced print falls back to the guide, which is an item price and says so.
How each period is drawn. Candles and bars show the full observed open/high/low/close; line and area show the close alone. The DATA does not change with the mark.
Price scale (linear, log or percent), auto-scaling, and the note on exactly how these bars were built.
Expand the chart to the whole viewport. Same bars and same drawings — only the room they get changes.
Cursor — chart crosshair, pan and zoomTrend line — two pointsHorizontal line — one click, priced at the axisRay — two points, extended forwardZone — two cornersFibonacci retracement — anchor the move, start to endNote — click, then typeMeasure — drag for change, percent and barsMagnet — snap each new anchor to the nearest bar's open, high, low or close, so a line lands on an observation rather than between two of them.Nothing to clear — there are no drawings on this card.DRW
Fair valueUNDERVALUEDThe cheapest delivered ask sits more than 5% below the blended fair-value estimate (FAIR_VALUE_AT_FAIR_TOLERANCE_PCT).
Fair value $5.69 delivered, about $5.65 on the item basis; the cheapest delivered ask is 8.2% below it$5.69delivered-8.2%The cheapest delivered ask ($5.23) against the blended fair-value estimate.top 64%top 64% of 6,176 tracked on FV gap · Ranked against every tracked card as of Oct 12, 2026; the number above is live.
Held at the $5.69 clearing price — last 48h, rising confirmed
The delivered, time-decayed VWAP of confirmed prints over the last 48h, 49.9 effective units behind it. Fair value is held AT this price rather than above it: the rising is confirmed, so a 30-day blend would be quoting last month’s price as this week’s.
Chase
—Pack count unknownA priced sealed product exists, but nothing on record says how many packs are inside it. Defaulting a booster box to 36 packs is true for most modern sets and false for enough of them that the guess would sit invisibly inside a dollar figure, so the card withholds instead.
1 in 8.9 packs for illustration rare, shared by 33 cards in Ascended Heroes — but nothing on record says how many packs are in this set's sealed products, and a guessed pack count would sit invisibly inside the spend figure.
Breakdown
RarityIllustration rareRarityIllustration rareThe provider's own spelling, verbatim. The odds row and this printing have to carry the same string or no estimate is made — a mismatch must produce nothing rather than another rarity's rate.Slot odds
Supply
▲Tight supply69 listed units against a 27.4/day pace is 2.5 days of stock. Under 7d reads tight, 30d or more reads heavy.
69 units listed across 55 sellers — 2.5d of stock at the 30-day pace of 27.4/day.
PopulationAll graders pooled2,996Every slab reported by every grader we hold a census for, as each of them states its own total. A share of what was submitted and kept — never the odds a copy grades 10.ACE392Slabs ACE itself reports for this card. Switching tabs changes the whole chart below to that grader's own grade curve.CGC537Slabs CGC itself reports for this card. Switching tabs changes the whole chart below to that grader's own grade curve.PSA2,067Slabs PSA itself reports for this card. Switching tabs changes the whole chart below to that grader's own grade curve.
1010 — 2,118 slabs, 70.7% of the 2,996 charted hereACE 339 · CGC 398 (Gem Mint 10 · Pristine 10) · PSA 1,3819.59.5 — 22 slabs, 0.7% of the 2,996 charted hereCGC 2299 — 697 slabs, 23.3% of the 2,996 charted hereACE 40 · CGC 73 · PSA 5848.58.5 — 18 slabs, 0.6% of the 2,996 charted hereCGC 1888 — 83 slabs, 2.8% of the 2,996 charted hereACE 10 · CGC 10 · PSA 637.57.5 — 4 slabs, 0.1% of the 2,996 charted hereCGC 477 — 27 slabs, 0.9% of the 2,996 charted hereACE 1 · CGC 3 · PSA 236.56.5 — 2 slabs, 0.1% of the 2,996 charted hereCGC 266 — 14 slabs, 0.5% of the 2,996 charted hereACE 1 · CGC 1 · PSA 125.55.5 — 1 slabs, 0.0% of the 2,996 charted hereCGC 155 — 2 slabs, 0.1% of the 2,996 charted herePSA 24.54.5 — 1 slabs, 0.0% of the 2,996 charted hereCGC 144 — 3 slabs, 0.1% of the 2,996 charted hereACE 1 · PSA 2AuthAuth — 4 slabs, 0.1% of the 2,996 charted hereCGC 4
Listed · 55 sellers · $414.2669 unitsActive fixed-price asks with a known delivered price. Auctions are a separate market and never enter this count.Sold · 30d · 27.4/day821 unitsUnits over the last 30 days, on TCGplayer and eBay, against 702 in the 30 days before. Newest reading 2026-10-13.Graded · ACE 392 · CGC 537 · PSA 2,0672,996 slabsEvery slab reported by every grader we hold a census for, pooled. A share of what was submitted and kept — not the odds your copy grades 10.
ScarcityScarceA named card at this rarity takes 1 in 293 packs on average, which is the middle fifth of every card we hold pack odds for. The bands are the card-weighted quintiles of that population, not thresholds we picked.
1 in 293 packs for one copy of this card1 in 293packs
Half of all openers get one within 203 packs
4th of 5 hit tiers in Ascended HeroesEvery tier on this ladder comes out of the same pack under the same study, so the position is a like-for-like comparison. It ranks NAMED cards, not tiers: a 12-card tier and a 1-card tier with the same slot odds are not the same difficulty.
Competitive play—Legal, unplayedStandard-legal, and in none of the 22,383 Standard decklists in the last 30 days.
Standard-legal, but in none of the 22,383 Standard decklists across 338 events, last 30 days.
Player floor$0.07The cheapest currently-priced Standard-legal print of this card: Mightyena, Ascended Heroes. What it costs to put the card in a deck, which is not the same question as what THIS print is worth.Premium over floor77×This printing's headline price ($5.38) against the player floor ($0.07). What a player pays for THIS art rather than for the cheapest legal copy of the same card.
Why It's Moving
What changedWhat changedThe observable that moved, stated before any reason for it — the fact the rest of this panel has to account for.
Sold median moved +15.0% over the trailing 7 days and -20.4% over 30 days, last printing at $5.38. Active TCGplayer listings fell 0% over the same 7 days to 0.
Primary explanationPrimary explanationThe reading the evidence best supports. It is an explanation, never a forecast, and it is only as good as the Evidence row two lines down.
Primary read: Liquidity scored 99/100 (composite weight 21%). — the largest single contributor to the current MARKUP regime read.
AlternativeAlternativeA competing explanation the SAME evidence would also support. It is printed even when the primary looks strong: an explanation with no stated alternative is a story, not an analysis.
Alternative explanation: Relative strength scored 2/100 (composite weight 21%).. With 55 distinct sellers/observations in the trailing window, either read is defensible — this is not a high-conviction single-cause move.
EvidenceEvidenceWhat kind of fact this row is. A completed sale, a live ask and a calculated guide price are three different weights of evidence about the same number, and this column is the difference between them.
ObservedObservedThe day the fact was read — not the day the underlying event happened, and not today. An old date is an old reading.
AgeAgeHow long ago this row was read, as of the moment the page was computed.
ConfidenceConfidenceHow much weight this row carries where it feeds a model, from the resolver that matched it. Lower means a looser match or a thinner source, and a low-confidence row is reweighted rather than dropped.
ModelledModelledYes = a CALCULATED value (a guide price, an estimate); No = something actually observed (a sale, a listing, a census count). A modelled row is evidence about a model, not about the market.
$5.23Market price$5.23What the market is actually asking right now — the cheapest delivered price, or the newest confirmed print when no ladder exists. The card’s verdict is where this line falls against the band.$5.69Fair value$5.69The blend’s point estimate — the weighted centre of the four component reads listed below. It is the middle of a band, not a target: read the band’s width before the point.
$5.54The bottom of the stated fair-value band — the cheap end of the blend, not a floor and not a support level. A wider band is the model saying it is less sure, so the two ends are more informative together than the point between them.$5.93The top of the stated fair-value band — the rich end of the blend, not a ceiling and not a target. A wider band is the model saying it is less sure, so the two ends are more informative together than the point between them.
Sales VWAP$5.5362%Sales VWAP$5.53Time-decayed, unit-weighted mean delivered price of confirmed prints — the last 48h dominate.Weight 62% of the blend, after reweighting away the inputs with no evidence.Depth clearing$5.4738%Depth clearing$5.47VWAP of the cheapest tranche of the live delivered-ask ladder — the price at which real fixed-price supply actually clears.Weight 38% of the blend, after reweighting away the inputs with no evidence.Trend anchor$5.340%Trend anchor$5.34The rise is confirmed and this anchor (a trailing SMA) sits on the far side of what the card is printing — reweighted away, not blended against the move.Weight 0% of the blend, after reweighting away the inputs with no evidence.Auction clearingN/A—Auction clearingN/AUnavailable in the trailing 30d window — reweighted away, not defaulted.No evidence for this input, so it carries no weight — the blend is the other components, reweighted.
≈$5.65 item basis · ±3.4% band · 3 of 4 inputs · 411 obs / 30dBand is ±3.4% of the point estimate: 2 of 4 components available (excluded: trend anchor — a trailing average on a confirmed rise, auction clearing — 35% of weight reweighted away, 18% confidence penalty), on 411 observation(s) in the trailing 30d. Thin samples and missing components widen the band 1.35x over the raw component spread. Prints are weighted with a 3d half-life; it is clearing at $5.69 delivered over the last 48h (49.9 effective units), and the rise is confirmed, so the point estimate is held at that clearing price rather than at the blend's $5.51.
›8.2% under fair — buy at $5.23 delivered.
Market safety
▼Low riskOrdinary trading absorbs a spike here inside a week — less than 7 days of this card's own turnover — and taking control needs more than one ordinary order.
$414.26 clears the cheap side — 2.5 days of turnover (0.09 book-months, 55 asks).
Book
10%·$43.90·$5.62 ask+3%Sweeping 10% of the visible book costs $43.90The next unbought ask after that sweep sits at $5.62 ask — +3% against today's cheapest.Visible asks only, at delivered prices. An unshipped listing has no delivered price and is not in this ladder.50%·$209.36·$5.99 ask+10%Sweeping 50% of the visible book costs $209.36The next unbought ask after that sweep sits at $5.99 ask — +10% against today's cheapest.Visible asks only, at delivered prices. An unshipped listing has no delivered price and is not in this ladder.80%·$349.21·$6.24 ask+14%Sweeping 80% of the visible book costs $349.21The next unbought ask after that sweep sits at $6.24 ask — +14% against today's cheapest.Visible asks only, at delivered prices. An unshipped listing has no delivered price and is not in this ladder.Book $414.26Total notional on the visible ask ladder, and the largest single seller's share of it. A book that is mostly one seller's inventory is one decision away from moving.Best ask vs fair · $5.23 vs $5.69-8.1%Best ask vs fair-8.1%$5.23 vs $5.69
Mechanics▾
Cost to +50%$414.26
clears the entire visible book
Days to absorb2.5
69 units to control
Book breadth1 level
69 units on the board
Book / 30d sold0.09x
30d traded $4,710
VenuesTCGplayer
The absorption ladder walks the visible delivered-price ask book cheapest-first: what each slice of the book costs, the ask it leaves marginal, and how far that sits from the last price the card actually traded at. Manipulation risk is the worse of two reads — how many days of this card’s own turnover it would take to absorb the cost of control, and whether the whole buyable book fits inside a single ordinary order.
Flow
—SteadyThis week's daily sold units overlap the middle half of the rest of the window, so no change in pace is separable from the noise. Trading at its own normal rate.
191 sold in 7d, 1.0× the 30d pace — 30d prints clear at $5.41 median, +3.4% vs the $5.23 floor.
This week 191 · last week 249 · 30d/wk 192
Recent prints
$5.60+7.1%6h ago$5.60 delivered, 1 unit, 2026-10-13T05:05:40.187ZMeasured against today's cheapest delivered ask — a print above it is information, not bad news.$5.54+5.9%6h ago$5.54 delivered, 1 unit, 2026-10-13T05:05:40.177ZMeasured against today's cheapest delivered ask — a print above it is information, not bad news.$5.48+4.8%6h ago$5.48 delivered, 1 unit, 2026-10-13T05:05:40.160ZMeasured against today's cheapest delivered ask — a print above it is information, not bad news.$5.38·
Method▾
Daily units are the venue's own sold-quantity history, expanded off each bucket's real span, plus confirmed prints from the other side of the market. Prints come from the live sales tape at delivered prices. The floor is the cheapest delivered ask (item + required shipping) across venues — the same one FAIR VALUE prices against.
Over 30d: 411 confirmed print(s); net flow +$1747.39 across 374 buy-side vs 114 sell-side unit(s); large prints (>= $8.68) were 25% of notional and skewed buy-side -> ACCUMULATING.
Bottom line
—Hold60/100 on the weighted composite: at or above 65 is a buy, at or below 35 a sell, and everything between is a hold.
60/100 across 9 of 11 inputs. For: liquidity reads 99/100. Against: it sits in the top 98% of ranked cards on 30-day return.
Liquidity99Liquidity99/100Four equally-weighted readings of what counterparties did: the chance it trades today, how many of the last 30 days carried a trade, 30-day units sold against the units on the board, and how many different people are selling it. A reading nobody can measure is absent and the rest reweight.Carries 9% of the composite.Relative strength2Relative strength2/100This card’s 30-day return as a percentile of every tracked card that has one. 50 is "moved with the market". Declines to speak until the ranked universe is large enough to mean it.Carries 7% of the composite.Value vs fair66Value vs fair66/100The cheapest delivered ask against the blended fair-value estimate, two points per percent. Above 50 the card is trading under what the evidence says it is worth. Withheld entirely when fair value declares itself UNKNOWN — a discount measured against an untrustworthy anchor is not a discount.Carries 17% of the composite.Manipulation risk20Manipulation risk20/100RISK-ORIENTED. What it costs to walk the visible book up 50%, against both real trailing volume and one buyer’s cheque book. High here is bad, and it enters the composite inverted.Carries 9% of the composite, inverted: 20 risk entered as 80.Money flow65Money flow65/100Confirmed prints split into buy-side and sell-side against the prevailing ask, on a log scale — one decade of imbalance earns the full swing, because 100:1 is a thinner sample saying what 10:1 already said.Carries 11% of the composite.Price trend61Price trend61/1007-day and 30-day returns read against the noise of this card’s own series. Above 50 the price moved further than its own noise explains; below 50 it moved the other way. Withheld on a window with no confirmed print, where the line is the relay’s published guide and the return would be a reading of its revision schedule.Carries 13% of the composite.Scarcity44Scarcity44/100How few of this card exist, as a percentile of every card we can read. Prefers PRINT SCARCITY’s estimate — graded population with the value confound divided out, turned into a print scale by the pull rate — and falls back to packs-per-copy alone where that cannot be read. Scarce is oriented as GOOD, on the theory that thinner supply supports a price. Weighted low on purpose: scarcity is fixed at print and the market has had years to price it in, so this is a structural prior rather than an edge.Carries 7% of the composite.Book pressure48Book pressure48/100Supply leaving the market or refilling it. Prefers the 30-day inventory change; falls back to the venue's own listing count over the readings held, capped tighter because a shorter window is weaker evidence. Withheld on a count that never moves, or on a book so small that one listing's arrival pins the percent to a rail.Carries 11% of the composite.Grading upside49Grading upside49/100Best expected return across grading vendors, half a point per percent — the optionality on top of the raw thesis, never the thesis itself.Carries 6% of the composite.
9 of 11 inputs · 90% weight · -5% confidence▾
Not reading yet: seller concentration, reprint risk.
Liquidity9%99Four equally-weighted readings of what counterparties did: the chance it trades today, how many of the last 30 days carried a trade, 30-day units sold against the units on the board, and how many different people are selling it. A reading nobody can measure is absent and the rest reweight.Relative strength7%2This card’s 30-day return as a percentile of every tracked card that has one. 50 is "moved with the market". Declines to speak until the ranked universe is large enough to mean it.Value vs fair17%66The cheapest delivered ask against the blended fair-value estimate, two points per percent. Above 50 the card is trading under what the evidence says it is worth. Withheld entirely when fair value declares itself UNKNOWN — a discount measured against an untrustworthy anchor is not a discount.Manipulation risk9%20RISK-ORIENTED. What it costs to walk the visible book up 50%, against both real trailing volume and one buyer’s cheque book. High here is bad, and it enters the composite inverted.
1 in 8.9 packs
Slot odds1 in 8.9 packsTCGplayer (Authentication Center) — no sample size published. Measured Feb 24, 2026, 231d before this reading. 11.25% ± 1.33% of packs, 95% CI (>2,000 packs). Community measurement, not official odds: nobody publishes physical pack rates.
Cards at rarity33 in Ascended HeroesCards at rarity33 in Ascended HeroesCounted from the catalog: 33 printings in Ascended Heroes carry the rarity "Illustration rare".
This card1 in 293 packs±30%This card1 in 293 packsThe rarity’s measured odds, split evenly across the 33 cards printed at it. That even split is the estimate's weakest link, and it is bounded rather than hand-waved: a published 8,000-pack study put two Special Illustration Rares from one set at 1 in 309 and 1 in 393 packs — same rarity, same set — so a per-card figure is good to about ±30%.
Method▾
P(this card, per pack) = the published odds of its RARITY appearing, split evenly across the cards printed at that rarity in the set. Expected packs is 1/p, the mean of the geometric distribution. The range plots expected pack spend ÷ the single's delivered price on a log axis centred on parity. Pack price is a sealed product's own price divided by its stated pack count, and is computed only where that count carries a source. The single is the cheapest delivered ask (item + required shipping) across venues — the same figure FAIR VALUE prices against.
The Pokémon Company has never published physical booster odds in any region — the only official drop-rate page covers the digital TCG Live packs and lists no probabilities at all. Every figure here is a hand-entered citation of a published pack-opening study, and each one names its source and sample on hover.
Sealed
—No MSRP on fileThese products are priced, but not one of them carries a recorded MSRP with a source behind it. An MSRP is somebody’s assertion rather than a published dataset, and an appreciation measured against nothing is not a judgement this card will invent. The prices are listed below; the comparison is what is missing.
40 of this set’s 40 sealed products carry a price; none carries a recorded MSRP to measure appreciation against.
Set supply · not this card’sThe set's wholesale supply, not this card's — bulk lifts every raw copy in the set.▲Elevated27 lots listed on 2026-10-13 — higher than 59% of the set's own readings; 1989 packs on hand, higher than 69% over 29 readings in 90 days.27 lots · 1,989 packs · $18.66/pack
Method▾
Sealed product from Ascended Heroes — the set this card was printed in. We track which set a product belongs to, not which cards are inside it. Appreciation is each product’s last stored price against its own recorded MSRP, in percent. The card’s call is the MEDIAN of those percentages across the products that have an MSRP — a median rather than a mean, so one outlier SKU cannot carry a whole set — and a product with no MSRP on file is left out of that aggregate rather than counted as zero; it still lists below with its price. MSRP is somebody’s assertion rather than a published dataset, so it is shown only where a source is recorded against it, and that source is on the row’s hover. The bands are a legend for the percentage the card prints beside them: within ±5% is at MSRP, which is this repo’s own fair-value tolerance; up to +25% is a slight premium; up to +100% a significant one; at or above +100% the price has at least doubled and the figure is stated as a multiple, because a four-digit percentage is not a number anybody reads. Each price line takes a day’s observed low/high sale range and plots its midpoint; on a day with no recorded sale it carries the provider’s own daily guide value instead — a quoted price, not a transaction — and those days are drawn dashed, never described as trades. Every line is indexed to its own first stored day = 100, so the chart compares appreciation between products rather than price levels: a booster pack and a booster box cannot honestly share a dollar axis.
Restock
—Not readReadings exist, but none of them is a positive statement either way. UNKNOWN means we loaded the page and could not tell — never that the shelf was empty.
14 tracked SKUs, and not one of them could be read on the last pass.
Best Buy: not currently tracked.Walmart: not currently tracked.Target: 14 SKUs of Ascended Heroes's sealed products tracked.GameStop: not currently tracked.
1 retailer tracked · Target · 3 not monitoredEvery retailer in the registry has a cell, including the ones that are not tracked — a shelf nobody is watching reads UNKNOWN, never 'sold out'. One store's empty shelf is not the whole market, and an untracked one is not evidence about the market at all.Set-level: Ascended Heroes sealed products, not this cardRetail rows attach to SEALED products only — no big-box retailer sells single cards — so this whole card is the SET's shelf availability. It is not a statement about this card, and a card's own price is unaffected by it.Newest reading 28d ago · Sep 15, 08:23 UTCAvailability decays faster than any other number on the site, so this read is never cached and every row states its own age. An hour-old 'in stock' is a guess; the age is how you tell.Print status unknownThere is no published source for whether a Pokémon product is still being printed — The Pokémon Company has never announced print cessation in any region, and the annual rotation announcement is about tournament legality, not production. So this is an inference, never a fact, and the verdict above comes from observed shelf readings instead. Nothing direct is on file here — no shelf reading either way and no recorded reprint announcement — and release age plus a price ratio is a hypothesis, not a print status, so no estimate is made.
Shelf prices are pre-tax and exclude shipping — never comparable to a delivered price.Retail shelf prices are pre-tax and exclude shipping, so they are not comparable to the delivered marketplace prices shown elsewhere on this page. They are never fed into a delivered-price floor.Method▾
Each row is one tracked retailer's most recent reading of one of the set's sealed products, at that retailer's own SKU. A restock is an observed OUT_OF_STOCK → IN_STOCK transition in that SKU's reading history, never a change we inferred from a price or a gap. Shelf prices are pre-tax and exclude shipping, so they are not delivered prices and are never fed into a floor.
Absorption
—Building historyToo few readings of the book to tell a drawdown from noise. The count is on the card — see the note below.
31 readings of this book so far, one per 1 day, over 30d. The direction reads once there are enough of them to tell a drawdown from noise.
Method▾
Each reading takes the venue's own listing count for this card in this condition — the whole book — at that instant. The direction is classified by the platform's absorption reading over that series: a book drawn down with demand behind it reads as accumulation, one that refills after a drawdown reads as distribution. Copies and sellers come from the cheapest asks we sample, not from the book, and are labelled as such. Sold units are confirmed prints from the live tape over the same span, and are shown only when the tape reaches back past the first reading.
The direction is classified over the platform-standard 30-day trailing window. That window is a scope, not a history: it contains exactly the readings counted on this card and no others — and only readings that counted the venue’s own book, never a sampled one trended against a counted one.
Slab premium
▲Strong slab premiumThe dearest priced rung is TAG 10 at $99.99, 19.1× the $5.23 raw reference (cheapest delivered ask).
A TAG 10 is worth $99.99 — 19.1× the $5.23 raw cheapest delivered ask.
Dearest slab per grading company
TAG 10$99.9919.1×TAG 10 — $99.99, 19.1× raw$99.99 · EBAY · 2026-08-18CGC Pristine 10$74.0014.1×CGC Pristine 10 — $74.00, 14.1× raw$50.00 · EBAY · 2026-09-21 · $48.38 · EBAY · 2026-09-07 · $85.49 · EBAY · 2026-09-07 +10 more print(s)PSA 10$65.0012.4×PSA 10 — $65.00, 12.4× raw$56.00 · EBAY · 2026-10-11 · $57.00 · EBAY · 2026-10-10 · $53.90 · EBAY · 2026-10-10 +107 more print(s)ACE 10$38.327.3×ACE 10 — $38.32, 7.3× raw$37.34 · EBAY · 2026-09-27 · $45.97 · EBAY · 2026-09-13 · $39.30 · EBAY · 2026-08-08 +1 more print(s)BGS 9.5$26.675.1×BGS 9.5 — $26.67, 5.1× raw$26.67 · EBAY · 2026-08-31 · $15.50 · EBAY · 2026-08-30 · $50.00 · EBAY · 2026-08-24Raw$5.23askA live listing. Nobody has paid this.1.0×Raw — $5.23, 1.0× rawThe cheapest copy actually listed for sale, delivered — item plus required shipping. An offer, not a price anybody has paid. Every multiple on this ladder is taken against it.
A TAG 10 fetches 35% more than a CGC 10.
One rung down, a TAG 9 is $22.00 — 4.2× raw.
Grading ROI
▼Don't gradeCGC: -$12.71 expected after $45.00 of fees — observed gem share 74% of n=537.
Best on CGC: -$12.71 expected after $45.00 of fees — observed gem share 74% of n=537.
VendorVendorThe grading company, one row each. Rows are the graders we hold both a fee schedule and a population census for — a grader we cannot price is left out rather than estimated.
FeeFeeThe all-in submission cost per card at this grader: grading tier plus shipping both ways and insurance, as published. A † marks a fee we could not read from a published schedule and had to carry from a prior reading. Lower is better.
P(10)P(10)The share of this card’s submissions to this grader that came back a 10, from its own population census. It is what WAS submitted and kept, not the odds your particular copy grades — a card people only submit when it looks perfect reads high here for that reason alone.
10 price10 priceWhat a 10 from this grader actually sells for. The superscript says what kind of evidence that is — a sale, an unsold listing, or the provider’s own modelled guide.
ROI(10)ROI(10)Return if the card grades a 10 and sells at that price: (10 price − raw price − fee) over what you put in. The BEST case, before any probability is applied. Higher is better.
Risk-wtdRisk-wtdThe same return weighted by the odds of each grade, not just the 10 — the number to compare graders on, because a high P(10) at a high fee can lose to a lower one. A leading ≈ means the full grade distribution was unavailable and a coarser method stood in. Higher is better.
ACE
$24.39ACE Basic — the cheapest tier accepting single-card submissions, read 2026-10-06. £18.00 converted at GBP/USD 1.355 (2026-09-01) — a conversion, not a quoted USD price. Cheaper tiers you cannot use today: Core $16.26, Value $20.33.
86.5%95% interval 82.7%–89.5% on n=392. A share of what was submitted and kept, not submission odds.
$38.32What a 10 from this grader actually sells for. The superscript says what kind of evidence that is — a sale, an unsold listing, or the provider’s own modelled guide.
-39%-$21.38 on a $54.62 cost basis.
≈-46%No ACE price below grade 10 exists at any basis, so a miss is valued at the raw reference price — fee and shipping sunk for a slab the market pays no premium for.
BGS
$79.95BGS Express — the cheapest tier accepting single-card submissions, read 2026-09-01. Cheaper tiers you cannot use today: Base $14.95.
—The share of this card’s submissions to this grader that came back a 10, from its own population census. It is what WAS submitted and kept, not the odds your particular copy grades — a card people only submit when it looks perfect reads high here for that reason alone.
Pre-grade this card →Photograph your own copy front and back for centering, wear and the odds of each grade. An estimate, not a grade.
$5.23 raw (cheapest delivered ask) + $20.00 CGC Economy + $25.00 ship/ins = $50.23 · less 13.25% sale fee · 45d lockup
Share of what was submitted and kept — not the odds your copy grades 10.
Special illustration rare — 22 cards at this rarity, so one NAMED Special illustration rare is 1 in 1,528 packs.
Mega Hyper Rare1 in 1,053Mega Hyper Rare — 2 cards at this rarity, so one NAMED Mega Hyper Rare is 1 in 1,053 packs.
Ultra Rare1 in 437Ultra Rare — 21 cards at this rarity, so one NAMED Ultra Rare is 1 in 437 packs.
Illustration rare1 in 293Illustration rare — 33 cards at this rarity, so one NAMED Illustration rare is 1 in 293 packs.
Double rare1 in 191Double rare — 39 cards at this rarity, so one NAMED Double rare is 1 in 191 packs.
Hit tiers in Ascended Heroes, hardest at the top. Log scale.
Method▾
P(this card, per pack) = the published odds of its RARITY appearing, split evenly across the cards printed at that rarity in the set; the figure shown is 1/p, the mean number of packs to one copy. The ladder plots every tier of the set on a logarithmic scale, because a set spans two orders of magnitude between its commonest hit and its hardest and a linear scale would pin all but one of them to the same end.
The Pokémon Company has never published physical booster odds in any region — the only official drop-rate page covers the digital TCG Live packs and lists no probabilities at all. This figure is a hand-entered citation of a published pack-opening study of this set.
Print scarcity
•Too new to readGraded population climbs for about a year after a set releases and then levels off, so a set inside that ramp looks lightly printed purely because nobody has sent its cards in yet. Ascended Heroes is 8 months old. We hold the read until 12 months.
Graded population climbs for about a year after a set releases and then levels off, so a set inside that ramp looks lightly printed purely because nobody has sent its cards in yet. Ascended Heroes is 8 months old. We hold the read until 12 months.
LightModerateHeavy
Model inputs
Graded copies2,996 copiesGraded copies2,996 copiesSlabs on record across PSA, CGC and ACE, summed over every grade. The model’s raw input — it is NOT the print run, because a card people grade often will show a large population off a small press run. Ungraded and sealed copies are invisible to it.Packs per copy1 in 293Packs per copy1 in 293How many packs it takes to see one named copy of this card — the same figure SCARCITY leads with. It is what converts a set-wide print scale into this card’s own.Set read from117 cardsSet read from117 cardsEvery card in the set with a price, a population and a pull rate gives an independent estimate of how many packs of the set exist. They are pooled by median, so one mis-joined card cannot move the answer.
Method▾
Graded population is print run × how often anyone bothers grading it, and the second factor moves with VALUE — so population is divided by price^0.606, the elasticity fitted across 3,826 cards that carry a population, a price and a pull rate at once. That normalised count is turned into a SET pack scale using the card’s pull rate (every card in a set is an independent read on how many packs exist, pooled by median), then brought back down to this card by its own pull rate. The band is a tertile of the result across every card that clears the gates.
Nobody has ever published a Pokémon print run, and this does not recover one — it is an ORDER, not a count. It reads surviving graded supply across PSA, CGC and ACE, so ungraded and sealed stock are invisible to it. What it is checked against: the model puts Black & White at the bottom of the catalog and modern Scarlet & Violet at the top, which is where the smallest and largest print runs actually are.
No announcement naming mark H has been published. Standard rotation dates are curated by hand from official announcements; a mark with no announced date carries none rather than a guess.
30d sold821 units (+17% vs prior 30d)Units of THIS printing sold in the 30 days ending October 13, 2026, against the 30 days before that (702). Demand at a table and demand in the market are different measurements; this is the second one.
Meta vs priceNot enough history (0 weeks)Spearman rank correlation of weekly share against weekly median price over the trailing 26 weeks, on the weeks carrying both. Printed only at 8 weeks or more; below that the count is stated instead of a coefficient off a handful of readings.
94.5% of card lines in these decklists matched a card in our catalog; an unmatched line is never counted. Online events only, not Regionals or Worlds. Tournament results →
Card text▾
HP120
TypesDarkness
StageStage1
AttacksDC Kick Away · 50Cost: Darkness · ColorlessSwitch out your opponent's Active Pokémon to the Bench. (Your opponent chooses the new Active Pokémon.)DDC Sharp Fang · 130Cost: Darkness · Darkness · Colorless
WeaknessGrass ×2
Retreat2
Regulation markH
LegalStandard ✓legal · Expanded ✓legal
EvidenceEvidenceThe specific observations the explanation rests on. If this row is thin, treat the explanation as thin — it is the only thing holding it up.
Evidence: item-basis daily bars, TCGplayer active listings, absorption read ("Over 30d: inventory +1.1%, cheap depth no data, sales velocity no data -> NEUTRAL.").
ConfidenceConfidenceHow much weight to put on the primary explanation, given how much of the evidence actually resolved. It qualifies the row above; it never adds to it.
Confidence: 40% (floor-confidence 50/100), based on 257 days of observations.
What would disprove itWhat would disprove itThe observation that would break the primary explanation. It is what makes the reading falsifiable rather than unfalsifiable — and it is the thing to watch for next.
This read would be wrong if active listings rebound above 0 while sold median keeps falling.
CatalogCard identity: set, number, rarity, finish, release date. It dates from the printing itself, so an old reading here is expected and is not staleness.
Jan 30, 2026
256d
98%
No
Live askA copy offered for sale right now. An ask is what a seller wants, not what anyone paid — it bounds the price from above until it clears.
Oct 13, 2026
3h
90%
No
Price statisticAn observed figure computed over several rows rather than one print — a delivered floor, a published median over a window.
Oct 13, 2026
3h
90%
No
Confirmed saleA completed transaction at a known price — the strongest evidence on this page. Prices are delivered (item + required shipping).
Oct 13, 2026
6h
85%
No
Inventory countHow many copies and listings stand on the book. What depth, supply and absorption are measured against.
Oct 13, 2026
3h
70%
No
Guide priceA calculated market guide — a model of where the product is trading. Never a confirmed sale, and always marked Modelled.
Oct 13, 2026
11h
60%
Yes
Population censusA grader's published count of the copies it has slabbed at each grade. A record of what was submitted and kept, never the odds a copy grades.
Oct 12, 2026
17h
60%
No
Raw · Holo · Near MintWhat every row above was gathered for — one printing, in this one finish and condition or grade. Change either switcher in the header and you are reading a different one; the page's own URL is the address of exactly this one.pq-quant-2026.10.0The version of the scoring and analytics formulas that produced everything on this page. Two figures computed under different versions are not comparable, which is why the version is stated rather than assumed.
×2
+2.9%
6h ago
$5.38 delivered, 2 units, 2026-10-13T05:05:40.130ZMeasured against today's cheapest delivered ask — a print above it is information, not bad news.
$5.38+2.9%6h ago$5.38 delivered, 1 unit, 2026-10-13T05:05:40.107ZMeasured against today's cheapest delivered ask — a print above it is information, not bad news.
$7.11+35.9%7h ago$7.11 delivered, 1 unit, 2026-10-13T03:55:35.970ZMeasured against today's cheapest delivered ask — a print above it is information, not bad news.
Money flow11%65Confirmed prints split into buy-side and sell-side against the prevailing ask, on a log scale — one decade of imbalance earns the full swing, because 100:1 is a thinner sample saying what 10:1 already said.
Price trend13%617-day and 30-day returns read against the noise of this card’s own series. Above 50 the price moved further than its own noise explains; below 50 it moved the other way. Withheld on a window with no confirmed print, where the line is the relay’s published guide and the return would be a reading of its revision schedule.
Scarcity7%44How few of this card exist, as a percentile of every card we can read. Prefers PRINT SCARCITY’s estimate — graded population with the value confound divided out, turned into a print scale by the pull rate — and falls back to packs-per-copy alone where that cannot be read. Scarce is oriented as GOOD, on the theory that thinner supply supports a price. Weighted low on purpose: scarcity is fixed at print and the market has had years to price it in, so this is a structural prior rather than an edge.
Book pressure11%48Supply leaving the market or refilling it. Prefers the 30-day inventory change; falls back to the venue's own listing count over the readings held, capped tighter because a shorter window is weaker evidence. Withheld on a count that never moves, or on a book so small that one listing's arrival pins the percent to a rail.
Grading upside6%49Best expected return across grading vendors, half a point per percent — the optionality on top of the raw thesis, never the thesis itself.
Seller concentration5%no readingThe venue attributes no seller identity to these asks.
Reprint risk5%no readingPrint status is unestablished — no shelf observation and no recorded reprint event.
The bottom line is a weighted mean of the signals that reported, renormalised so their weights sum to 1. Nothing defaults to a neutral 50: an input with no evidence is reweighted away and its absence is charged as a confidence penalty. Risk rows (manipulation, concentration, reprint) enter inverted. Data quality carries no weight at all — it decides whether the verdict may be spoken, because knowing a lot about a card is not a reason to buy it. Competitive meta sits OUTSIDE the weighted mean as a capped bonus added after it: a card nobody plays is never marked down for that, and a card the meta is built on can be marked up for it.
The Ascended Heroes Booster Pack's most recent plotted day carries an observed sale.
Indexed to each product’s own first stored day = 100. Ascended Heroes Booster Pack in front, 39 behind · dashed = guide price, no sale that day.Each line is that product’s own price divided by its own first stored day and multiplied by 100, so every series starts on the dotted rule and the axis measures APPRECIATION rather than price. Dollars could not do this job here: a booster pack and a booster box differ by two orders of magnitude, and on a shared dollar axis the pack would sit flat on the floor of the plot however far it had actually travelled. The Ascended Heroes Booster Pack is the base unit and is drawn in front; the rest are drawn behind it, and each one’s own numbers are in the table below. A dashed stretch is a run of days with no recorded sale, carrying the provider’s daily guide value — a quoted price, never a trade.
Appreciation vs MSRP
ProductPriceMSRPvs MSRPEvery sealed product the catalog holds for this set, ordered by how standard a unit each is for tracking a set’s sealed price. PRICE is the product’s last stored day — a sale where one was recorded, the provider’s daily guide value where none was, and the row’s hover says which. MSRP is blank wherever no source is recorded against one, because an MSRP with nobody behind it is not a fact. VS MSRP is the price against that MSRP, as a percentage up to a doubling and as a multiple past it.
Ascended Heroes Booster Pack$11.44——Ascended Heroes Booster Pack—Ascended Heroes Booster Pack. Last sale $11.44 on Oct 13, 2026. No MSRP is recorded against this product, so there is nothing to measure a premium from; the blank is a missing MSRP, not a missing price.Ascended Heroes Mini Tin [Riolu & Darumaka]$31.99——Ascended Heroes Mini Tin [Riolu & Darumaka]—Ascended Heroes Mini Tin [Riolu & Darumaka]. Quoted at $31.99 on Oct 12, 2026 — a guide price, with no sale recorded that day. No MSRP is recorded against this product, so there is nothing to measure a premium from; the blank is a missing MSRP, not a missing price.Ascended Heroes Mini Tin [Zorua & Cramorant]$34.17——Ascended Heroes Mini Tin [Zorua & Cramorant]—Ascended Heroes Mini Tin [Zorua & Cramorant]. Quoted at $34.17 on Oct 12, 2026 — a guide price, with no sale recorded that day. No MSRP is recorded against this product, so there is nothing to measure a premium from; the blank is a missing MSRP, not a missing price.Ascended Heroes Mini Tin [Clefairy & Chikorita]$34.98——Ascended Heroes Mini Tin [Clefairy & Chikorita]—Ascended Heroes Mini Tin [Clefairy & Chikorita]. Quoted at $34.98 on Oct 12, 2026 — a guide price, with no sale recorded that day. No MSRP is recorded against this product, so there is nothing to measure a premium from; the blank is a missing MSRP, not a missing price.Ascended Heroes Mini Tin [Pikachu & Tepig]$34.99——Ascended Heroes Mini Tin [Pikachu & Tepig]—Ascended Heroes Mini Tin [Pikachu & Tepig]. Quoted at $34.99 on Oct 12, 2026 — a guide price, with no sale recorded that day. No MSRP is recorded against this product, so there is nothing to measure a premium from; the blank is a missing MSRP, not a missing price.Ascended Heroes Mini Tin [Togepi & Totodile]$36.11——Ascended Heroes Mini Tin [Togepi & Totodile]—Ascended Heroes Mini Tin [Togepi & Totodile]. Quoted at $36.11 on Oct 12, 2026 — a guide price, with no sale recorded that day. No MSRP is recorded against this product, so there is nothing to measure a premium from; the blank is a missing MSRP, not a missing price.Ascended Heroes Tin [Mega Meganium ex]$43.99——Ascended Heroes Tin [Mega Meganium ex]—Ascended Heroes Tin [Mega Meganium ex]. Last sale $43.99 on Oct 12, 2026. No MSRP is recorded against this product, so there is nothing to measure a premium from; the blank is a missing MSRP, not a missing price.Ascended Heroes Tin [Mega Feraligatr ex]$44.48——Ascended Heroes Tin [Mega Feraligatr ex]—Ascended Heroes Tin [Mega Feraligatr ex]. Quoted at $44.48 on Oct 12, 2026 — a guide price, with no sale recorded that day. No MSRP is recorded against this product, so there is nothing to measure a premium from; the blank is a missing MSRP, not a missing price.
Ascended Heroes Booster Pack at Target, SKU 1009318838 — Not read, no shelf price shown. Read Sep 15, 08:01 UTC. A Ascended Heroes sealed product, not this card.
Not readAscended Heroes Elite Trainer Box28d agoAscended Heroes Elite Trainer Box at Target, SKU 1009790687 — Not read, no shelf price shown. Read Sep 15, 08:01 UTC. A Ascended Heroes sealed product, not this card.
Not readAscended Heroes Mini Tin [Pikachu & Tepig]28d agoAscended Heroes Mini Tin [Pikachu & Tepig] at Target, SKU 1010937646 — Not read, no shelf price shown. Read Sep 15, 08:23 UTC. A Ascended Heroes sealed product, not this card.
Not readAscended Heroes Mini Tin [Pikachu & Tepig]28d agoAscended Heroes Mini Tin [Pikachu & Tepig] at Target, SKU 1009818849 — Not read, no shelf price shown. Read Sep 15, 08:01 UTC. A Ascended Heroes sealed product, not this card.
Not readAscended Heroes Mini Tin [Riolu & Darumaka]28d agoAscended Heroes Mini Tin [Riolu & Darumaka] at Target, SKU 1010937644 — Not read, no shelf price shown. Read Sep 15, 08:23 UTC. A Ascended Heroes sealed product, not this card.
Not readAscended Heroes Mini Tin [Riolu & Darumaka]28d agoAscended Heroes Mini Tin [Riolu & Darumaka] at Target, SKU 1009818850 — Not read, no shelf price shown. Read Sep 15, 08:01 UTC. A Ascended Heroes sealed product, not this card.
Not readAscended Heroes Mini Tin [Togepi & Totodile]28d agoAscended Heroes Mini Tin [Togepi & Totodile] at Target, SKU 1010937649 — Not read, no shelf price shown. Read Sep 15, 08:23 UTC. A Ascended Heroes sealed product, not this card.
Not readAscended Heroes Mini Tin [Togepi & Totodile]28d agoAscended Heroes Mini Tin [Togepi & Totodile] at Target, SKU 1009818851 — Not read, no shelf price shown. Read Sep 15, 08:01 UTC. A Ascended Heroes sealed product, not this card.
Not readAscended Heroes Mini Tin [Zorua & Cramorant]28d agoAscended Heroes Mini Tin [Zorua & Cramorant] at Target, SKU 1010937645 — Not read, no shelf price shown. Read Sep 15, 08:23 UTC. A Ascended Heroes sealed product, not this card.
Not readAscended Heroes Mini Tin [Zorua & Cramorant]28d agoAscended Heroes Mini Tin [Zorua & Cramorant] at Target, SKU 1009818852 — Not read, no shelf price shown. Read Sep 15, 08:01 UTC. A Ascended Heroes sealed product, not this card.
—No 10 price is on file for BGS, so no return can be computed for it — an absence, never a zero.
—Return if the card grades a 10 and sells at that price: (10 price − raw price − fee) over what you put in. The BEST case, before any probability is applied. Higher is better.
—Risk-weighted ROI withheld: no BGS population total, so P(10) has no honest denominator.
CGC
$20.00CGC Economy — the cheapest tier accepting single-card submissions, read 2026-10-06. Cheaper tiers you cannot use today: Bulk $17.00.
74.1%95% interval 70.2%–77.6% on n=537. A share of what was submitted and kept, not submission odds.
$48.50What a 10 from this grader actually sells for. The superscript says what kind of evidence that is — a sale, an unsold listing, or the provider’s own modelled guide.
-16%-$8.16 on a $50.23 cost basis.
≈-34%Only 31% of the CGC distribution is priced, so this falls back to P(10)·ROI(10) + (1−P(10))·ROI(pooled sub-10 price).
PSA
$59.99PSA Standard — the cheapest tier accepting single-card submissions, read 2026-10-06. Cheaper tiers you cannot use today: Value Bulk $24.99, Value $32.99.
66.8%95% interval 64.8%–68.8% on n=2067. A share of what was submitted and kept, not submission odds.
$65.00What a 10 from this grader actually sells for. The superscript says what kind of evidence that is — a sale, an unsold listing, or the provider’s own modelled guide.
-37%-$33.83 on a $90.22 cost basis.
-51%Risk-weighted across all 7 PSA rungs; 99% of the distribution carried its own price, the remaining 1% valued at the pooled sub-10 price.
TAG
$59.95TAG Standard — the cheapest tier accepting single-card submissions, read 2026-10-06. Cheaper tiers you cannot use today: Basic $22.00.
—The share of this card’s submissions to this grader that came back a 10, from its own population census. It is what WAS submitted and kept, not the odds your particular copy grades — a card people only submit when it looks perfect reads high here for that reason alone.
$99.99What a 10 from this grader actually sells for. The superscript says what kind of evidence that is — a sale, an unsold listing, or the provider’s own modelled guide.
-4%-$3.44 on a $90.18 cost basis.
—Risk-weighted ROI withheld: no TAG population total, so P(10) has no honest denominator.
