Loading card terminal…
Zapdos — 133/128
Zapdos — 133/128Raw · Holo · Lightly PlayedEvery price, print, listing and score on this page belongs to this one printing in this one condition or grade — switch either dropdown and you are looking at a different one.A different printing of this card — a reverse holo, a promo stamp, another language. Choosing one NAVIGATES: every price, print, listing and score on the page belongs to that printing instead, because they are separate instruments that trade at different prices.The condition or grade being priced. Each one is a separate instrument that trades at its own price, so choosing one replaces every figure on the page. “All conditions” and “All grades” are a union of the siblings — their tape, listings and volume are combined, with one sibling named as the reference for price and analytics.
CapitulationCapitulationAll three fired at once: a sharp 7-day drop, sales velocity spiking to panic levels, and a deep drawdown off the peak. Forced selling into a falling book, not a slow decline.UndervaluedUndervaluedThe market price sits below the blended fair-value band — not merely below its midpoint. The blend and its four components are on the FAIR VALUE card; the wider the band, the weaker this call.AccumulationAccumulationBoth directions agree over the flow window: net dollars cleared at or above the prevailing ask, AND the top-decile-notional prints skewed the same way. Direction of confirmed prints only — never a forecast.1D-10.8%1D return-10.8%Change in the headline market price against the close 1 observed bar back. Bars exist only for days this card actually traded, so the span can be longer than the label's calendar reading.7D-15.3%7D return-15.3%Change in the headline market price against the close 7 observed bars back. Bars exist only for days this card actually traded, so the span can be longer than the label's calendar reading.30D—30D return—No bar 30 observations back, so there is nothing to measure against — an absence, not a flat market.As of 02:10ZAs of 02:10ZThe market price, its 1D/7D/30D returns, the order book, the For Sale counts and today’s price bar as they stood when this page was built. The page itself is served from a shared cache, so this stamp — not the moment you loaded it — is how old these numbers are. Your browser re-reads them a moment after the page arrives and this line follows.
Mkt Price
Mkt Price$7.00 itemMedian item price of the day’s confirmed prints — item basis, not delivered. It is the basis TCGplayer’s own market guide and every wall tile are quoted on; the chart’s DELIVERED toggle re-quotes the same prints with their required shipping in. Last confirmed fixed-price sale: $7.00 at 2026-10-15T00:44:40.333Z. Delivered $7.99 with shipping. One trade, not a statistic — the figure above it is the day's median.$7.00item-10.8%
Last $7.00 · $7.99 delivered · 1h
Fair Value
Fair Value$7.58 deliveredBand is ±10.5% of the point estimate: 2 of 4 components available (excluded: trend anchor — a trailing average on a confirmed fall, auction clearing — 35% of weight reweighted away, 18% confidence penalty), on 22 observation(s) in the trailing 30d. Thin samples and missing components widen the band 1.35x over the raw component spread. Prints are weighted with a 3d half-life; it is clearing at $7.96 delivered over the last 48h (9.3 effective units). A weighted blend of independent estimates, quoted DELIVERED — item plus required shipping — where Mkt Price beside it may be item basis. Read the band, not the point: its width is the model's own confidence. On the ITEM basis TCGplayer’s guide is quoted on, that is about $7.58 — this card’s own prints carry a median delivered-minus-item wedge of $0.00, measured day by day, never an assumed postage rate. Clears at $7.96 delivered · last 48h · falling. The delivered, time-decayed VWAP of confirmed prints over the last 48h, 9.3 effective units behind it. The blended fair value is read against it — a delivered ask is not called undervalued until it sits below what the card actually clears for.$7.58delivered
≈$7.58 item · Band $6.62–$8.22
Liquidity
Liquidity90 /100How easily a position clears, scored 0–100. Four readings, equally weighted, each independently nullable: trade rate (the chance it trades today, from 30d units sold), trade breadth (how many of the last 30 days carried a trade), queue clearance (30d units sold against the units on the board) and seller dispersion (how many different people are selling it). A reading nobody can measure is absent and the rest reweight — never filled in with a zero.90/100
Good liquidity
30D Vol
30D Vol83 units83 units over the last 30 days, on TCGplayer. Newest reading Oct 15, 2026. No earlier 30-day window to compare against.83units
units · vs prior 30d
For Sale
For Sale16 unitsEvery active fixed-price ask with a known delivered price. Auctions are a separate market and are never counted here.16units
11 sellers
Graded PopN/A
Graded PopN/AEvery slab reported by every grader we hold a census for, pooled. A share of what was submitted and kept — not the odds a copy grades 10.No live auction bids — this market has no resting bid book.
Cross-Market BasisAsks are live fixed-price listings at delivered prices (item + required shipping). No bid side exists: this market has no resting bid book. There are no live auction bids and no published buylist for this instrument, so the bid side is empty rather than synthesized from asks, price history or a spread assumption.——
AskSize
Ask sideLive fixed-price listings, priced DELIVERED — item plus required shipping. Cheapest first; a listing whose shipping is unknown has no delivered price and is excluded rather than guessed at.$7.002
$7.00 · 2 units2 cum.Ask size at this price, and the running total through it from the cheapest ask — 2 units are buyable at or under $7.00 delivered. The shaded staircase behind the row IS that running total.$7.171
$7.17 · 1 unit3 cum.Ask size at this price, and the running total through it from the cheapest ask — 3 units are buyable at or under $7.17 delivered. The shaded staircase behind the row IS that running total.$7.356
$7.35 · 6 units9 cum.Ask size at this price, and the running total through it from the cheapest ask — 9 units are buyable at or under $7.35 delivered. The shaded staircase behind the row IS that running total.Ask depth$137.85Ask depth$137.85Every live fixed-price ask summed at its DELIVERED price — what clearing the whole visible book would cost. There is no bid side to set it against: no auction has a bid on it and no buylist quotes this instrument, and an absent side is never drawn as a zero.
One candle per UTC day — the finest grain this market recordsOne candle per ISO week (Mon–Sun), rolled up from the daily barsOne candle per calendar month, rolled up from the daily barsitem — the sale price alone, excluding shipping. This is the basis TCGplayer’s own market guide is published on, and the basis every wall tile, screener row and watchlist quote uses, so it is what the headline compares against.delivered — item + required shipping, the basis every alarm, floor and fair value uses. A print whose shipping the venue never stated has no delivered price and is excluded from the bar rather than counted at its item price; a day with no priced print falls back to the guide, which is an item price and says so.
How each period is drawn. Candles and bars show the full observed open/high/low/close; line and area show the close alone. The DATA does not change with the mark.
Price scale (linear, log or percent), auto-scaling, and the note on exactly how these bars were built.
Expand the chart to the whole viewport. Same bars and same drawings — only the room they get changes.Cursor — chart crosshair, pan and zoomTrend line — two pointsHorizontal line — one click, priced at the axisRay — two points, extended forwardZone — two cornersFibonacci retracement — anchor the move, start to endNote — click, then typeMeasure — drag for change, percent and barsMagnet — snap each new anchor to the nearest bar's open, high, low or close, so a line lands on an observation rather than between two of them.Nothing to clear — there are no drawings on this card.DRW
as of Oct 15, 2026 · UTC
history since Sep 2026
Zapdos — 133/128 · 1D24h Med$7.00-10.8%5 prints · 24h medianitem priceLast $7.00 · 00:44Z ($7.99 delivered)
Vol 1 sold1 tcgp·1 prints·1 obssingle obs — no range
Live Listings
Pricevs MktQtyCond
TCGplayer0
eBay0
Fair valueUNDERVALUEDThe cheapest delivered ask sits more than 5% below the blended fair-value estimate (FAIR_VALUE_AT_FAIR_TOLERANCE_PCT).
Fair value $7.58 delivered, about $7.58 on the item basis; the cheapest delivered ask is 7.7% below itThe cheapest delivered ask ($7.00) against the blended fair-value estimate.
Clears at $7.96 delivered · last 48h · falling
The delivered, time-decayed VWAP of confirmed prints over the last 48h, 9.3 effective units behind it. The blended fair value is read against it — a delivered ask is not called undervalued until it sits below what the card actually clears for.$7.00Market price$7.00What the market is actually asking right now — the cheapest delivered price, or the newest confirmed print when no ladder exists. The card’s verdict is where this line falls against the band.$7.58Fair value$7.58The blend’s point estimate — the weighted centre of the four component reads listed below. It is the middle of a band, not a target: read the band’s width before the point.
Sales VWAP$7.95Depth clearing$7.00Trend anchor$10.12
$6.62The bottom of the stated fair-value band — the cheap end of the blend, not a floor and not a support level. A wider band is the model saying it is less sure, so the two ends are more informative together than the point between them.$8.22The top of the stated fair-value band — the rich end of the blend, not a ceiling and not a target. A wider band is the model saying it is less sure, so the two ends are more informative together than the point between them.
Sales VWAP$7.9562%Sales VWAP$7.95Time-decayed, unit-weighted mean delivered price of confirmed prints — the last 48h dominate.Weight 62% of the blend, after reweighting away the inputs with no evidence.Depth clearing$7.0038%Depth clearing$7.00VWAP of the cheapest tranche of the live delivered-ask ladder — the price at which real fixed-price supply actually clears.Weight 38% of the blend, after reweighting away the inputs with no evidence.Trend anchor$10.120%Trend anchor$10.12The fall is confirmed and this anchor (a trailing SMA) sits on the far side of what the card is printing — reweighted away, not blended against the move.Weight 0% of the blend, after reweighting away the inputs with no evidence.Auction clearingN/A—Auction clearingN/AUnavailable in the trailing 30d window — reweighted away, not defaulted.No evidence for this input, so it carries no weight — the blend is the other components, reweighted.
≈$7.58 item basis · ±10.6% band · 3 of 4 inputs · 22 obs / 30dBand is ±10.5% of the point estimate: 2 of 4 components available (excluded: trend anchor — a trailing average on a confirmed fall, auction clearing — 35% of weight reweighted away, 18% confidence penalty), on 22 observation(s) in the trailing 30d. Thin samples and missing components widen the band 1.35x over the raw component spread. Prints are weighted with a 3d half-life; it is clearing at $7.96 delivered over the last 48h (9.3 effective units).7.7% under fair — buy at $7.00 delivered.
Market safety
Low riskOrdinary trading absorbs a spike here inside a week — less than 7 days of this card's own turnover — and taking control needs more than one ordinary order.
$137.85 clears the cheap side — 3.7 days of turnover (0.20 book-months, 11 asks).
Book
10%$14.00$7.00 ask-14%Sweeping 10% of the visible book costs $14.00The next unbought ask after that sweep sits at $7.00 ask — -14% against today's cheapest.Visible asks only, at delivered prices. An unshipped listing has no delivered price and is not in this ladder.50%$72.76$7.49 ask-8%Sweeping 50% of the visible book costs $72.76The next unbought ask after that sweep sits at $7.49 ask — -8% against today's cheapest.Visible asks only, at delivered prices. An unshipped listing has no delivered price and is not in this ladder.80%$114.77$11.52 ask+41%Sweeping 80% of the visible book costs $114.77The next unbought ask after that sweep sits at $11.52 ask — +41% against today's cheapest.Visible asks only, at delivered prices. An unshipped listing has no delivered price and is not in this ladder.Book $137.85Total notional on the visible ask ladder, and the largest single seller's share of it. A book that is mostly one seller's inventory is one decision away from moving.Best ask vs fair · $7.00 vs $7.58-7.7%Best ask vs fair-7.7%$7.00 vs $7.58Mechanics
Cost to +50%$137.85
clears the entire visible book
Days to absorb3.7
16 units to control
Book breadth1 level
16 units on the board
Book / 30d sold0.20x
30d traded $693.92
VenuesTCGplayer
The absorption ladder walks the visible delivered-price ask book cheapest-first: what each slice of the book costs, the ask it leaves marginal, and how far that sits from the last price the card actually traded at. Manipulation risk is the worse of two reads — how many days of this card’s own turnover it would take to absorb the cost of control, and whether the whole buyable book fits inside a single ordinary order.
Flow
Heating upThis week's daily sold units sit entirely above the middle half of the rest of the window — the two interquartile ranges do not overlap. A claim about ACTIVITY, not about price direction.
43 sold in 7d, 2.2× the 30d pace — 30d prints clear at $8.34 median, +19.1% vs the $7.00 floor.
This week 43 · last week 18 · 30d/wk 19
Recent prints
$7.99+14.1%1h ago$7.99 delivered, 1 unit, 2026-10-15T00:44:40.333ZMeasured against today's cheapest delivered ask — a print above it is information, not bad news.$8.66×2+23.7%2h ago$8.66 delivered, 2 units, 2026-10-14T23:40:49.213ZMeasured against today's cheapest delivered ask — a print above it is information, not bad news.$7.37+5.3%5h ago$7.37 delivered, 1 unit, 2026-10-14T20:19:28.250ZMeasured against today's cheapest delivered ask — a print above it is information, not bad news.$6.75-3.6%8h ago$6.75 delivered, 1 unit, 2026-10-14T17:52:56.460ZMeasured against today's cheapest delivered ask — a print above it is information, not bad news.$8.34+19.1%23h ago$8.34 delivered, 1 unit, 2026-10-14T03:05:05.057ZMeasured against today's cheapest delivered ask — a print above it is information, not bad news.$7.85+12.1%1d ago$7.85 delivered, 1 unit, 2026-10-14T00:52:16.410ZMeasured against today's cheapest delivered ask — a print above it is information, not bad news.Method
Daily units are the venue's own sold-quantity history, expanded off each bucket's real span, plus confirmed prints from the other side of the market. Prints come from the live sales tape at delivered prices. The floor is the cheapest delivered ask (item + required shipping) across venues — the same one FAIR VALUE prices against.
Over 30d: 22 confirmed print(s); net flow +$144.57 across 22 buy-side vs 4 sell-side unit(s); large prints (>= $14.68) were 27% of notional and skewed buy-side -> ACCUMULATING.
Bottom line
Hold61/100 on the weighted composite (59 plus 2 for competitive meta): at or above 65 is a buy, at or below 35 a sell, and everything between is a hold.
61/100 across 6 of 11 inputs. For: liquidity reads 90/100. Against: it sits in the top 100% of ranked cards on 30-day return.
Liquidity90Liquidity90/100Four equally-weighted readings of what counterparties did: the chance it trades today, how many of the last 30 days carried a trade, 30-day units sold against the units on the board, and how many different people are selling it. A reading nobody can measure is absent and the rest reweight.Carries 9% of the composite.Relative strength0Relative strength0/100This card’s 30-day return as a percentile of every tracked card that has one. 50 is "moved with the market". Declines to speak until the ranked universe is large enough to mean it.Carries 7% of the composite.Scarcity11Scarcity11/100How few of this card exist, as a percentile of every card we can read. Prefers PRINT SCARCITY’s estimate — graded population with the value confound divided out, turned into a print scale by the pull rate — and falls back to packs-per-copy alone where that cannot be read. Scarce is oriented as GOOD, on the theory that thinner supply supports a price. Weighted low on purpose: scarcity is fixed at print and the market has had years to price it in, so this is a structural prior rather than an edge.Carries 7% of the composite.Manipulation risk20Manipulation risk20/100RISK-ORIENTED. What it costs to walk the visible book up 50%, against both real trailing volume and one buyer’s cheque book. High here is bad, and it enters the composite inverted.Carries 9% of the composite, inverted: 20 risk entered as 80.Value vs fair65Value vs fair65/100The cheapest delivered ask against the blended fair-value estimate, two points per percent. Above 50 the card is trading under what the evidence says it is worth. Withheld entirely when fair value declares itself UNKNOWN — a discount measured against an untrustworthy anchor is not a discount.Carries 17% of the composite.Money flow72Money flow72/100Confirmed prints split into buy-side and sell-side against the prevailing ask, on a log scale — one decade of imbalance earns the full swing, because 100:1 is a thinner sample saying what 10:1 already said.Carries 11% of the composite.
6 of 11 inputs · 60% weight · -20% confidence
Not reading yet: price trend, book pressure, grading upside, seller concentration, reprint risk.
Liquidity9%90Four equally-weighted readings of what counterparties did: the chance it trades today, how many of the last 30 days carried a trade, 30-day units sold against the units on the board, and how many different people are selling it. A reading nobody can measure is absent and the rest reweight.Relative strength7%0This card’s 30-day return as a percentile of every tracked card that has one. 50 is "moved with the market". Declines to speak until the ranked universe is large enough to mean it.Scarcity7%11How few of this card exist, as a percentile of every card we can read. Prefers PRINT SCARCITY’s estimate — graded population with the value confound divided out, turned into a print scale by the pull rate — and falls back to packs-per-copy alone where that cannot be read. Scarce is oriented as GOOD, on the theory that thinner supply supports a price. Weighted low on purpose: scarcity is fixed at print and the market has had years to price it in, so this is a structural prior rather than an edge.Manipulation risk9%20RISK-ORIENTED. What it costs to walk the visible book up 50%, against both real trailing volume and one buyer’s cheque book. High here is bad, and it enters the composite inverted.Value vs fair17%65The cheapest delivered ask against the blended fair-value estimate, two points per percent. Above 50 the card is trading under what the evidence says it is worth. Withheld entirely when fair value declares itself UNKNOWN — a discount measured against an untrustworthy anchor is not a discount.Money flow11%72Confirmed prints split into buy-side and sell-side against the prevailing ask, on a log scale — one decade of imbalance earns the full swing, because 100:1 is a thinner sample saying what 10:1 already said.Price trend13%no readingNo price history in the 7- and 30-day windows, or no confirmed print in 30 days — the line is the relay’s guide.Book pressure11%no readingNeeds a 30-day inventory change, or book counts spanning ≥3 days that move at all and rest on ≥8 listings. Collection of `inventory_observations` began 2026-09-02.Grading upside6%no readingNo priced grade outcomes, so expected return is unknown.Seller concentration5%no readingThe venue attributes no seller identity to these asks.Reprint risk5%no readingPrint status is unestablished — no shelf observation and no recorded reprint event.
Competitive meta+2A BONUS on top of the weighted composite, never a penalty: 20% of Standard decklists or more adds 8, 5% or more adds 5, and any measured play at all adds 2. A card nobody plays is not marked down for it. Measured on 0.0% of 22,383 Standard decklists in the last 30 days.
The bottom line is a weighted mean of the signals that reported, renormalised so their weights sum to 1. Nothing defaults to a neutral 50: an input with no evidence is reweighted away and its absence is charged as a confidence penalty. Risk rows (manipulation, concentration, reprint) enter inverted. Data quality carries no weight at all — it decides whether the verdict may be spoken, because knowing a lot about a card is not a reason to buy it. Competitive meta sits OUTSIDE the weighted mean as a capped bonus added after it: a card nobody plays is never marked down for that, and a card the meta is built on can be marked up for it.
Chase
Pack count unknownA priced sealed product exists, but nothing on record says how many packs are inside it. Defaulting a booster box to 36 packs is true for most modern sets and false for enough of them that the guess would sit invisibly inside a dollar figure, so the card withholds instead.
1 in 5.4 packs for illustration rare, shared by 18 cards in 30th Celebration — but nothing on record says how many packs are in this set's sealed products, and a guessed pack count would sit invisibly inside the spend figure.
Breakdown
RarityIllustration rareRarityIllustration rareThe provider's own spelling, verbatim. The odds row and this printing have to carry the same string or no estimate is made — a mismatch must produce nothing rather than another rarity's rate.Slot odds1 in 5.4 packsSlot odds1 in 5.4 packstcgtalk — 120 hits in 652 packs. Measured Sep 22, 2026, 23d before this reading. 120 of 652 counted packs (1 in 5.4). @Tommy13 observed 1 in 5.2 over 4,063 packs. Community measurement, not official odds: nobody publishes physical pack rates.Cards at rarity18 in 30th CelebrationCards at rarity18 in 30th CelebrationCounted from the catalog: 18 printings in 30th Celebration carry the rarity "Illustration rare".This card1 in 98 packs±30%This card1 in 98 packsThe rarity’s measured odds, split evenly across the 18 cards printed at it. That even split is the estimate's weakest link, and it is bounded rather than hand-waved: a published 8,000-pack study put two Special Illustration Rares from one set at 1 in 309 and 1 in 393 packs — same rarity, same set — so a per-card figure is good to about ±30%.Method
P(this card, per pack) = the published odds of its RARITY appearing, split evenly across the cards printed at that rarity in the set. Expected packs is 1/p, the mean of the geometric distribution. The range plots expected pack spend ÷ the single's delivered price on a log axis centred on parity. Pack price is a sealed product's own price divided by its stated pack count, and is computed only where that count carries a source. The single is the cheapest delivered ask (item + required shipping) across venues — the same figure FAIR VALUE prices against.
The Pokémon Company has never published physical booster odds in any region — the only official drop-rate page covers the digital TCG Live packs and lists no probabilities at all. Every figure here is a hand-entered citation of a published pack-opening study, and each one names its source and sample on hover.
Sealed
No MSRP on fileThese products are priced, but not one of them carries a recorded MSRP with a source behind it. An MSRP is somebody’s assertion rather than a published dataset, and an appreciation measured against nothing is not a judgement this card will invent. The prices are listed below; the comparison is what is missing.
52 of this set’s 52 sealed products carry a price; none carries a recorded MSRP to measure appreciation against.
Set supply · not this card’sThe set's wholesale supply, not this card's — bulk lifts every raw copy in the set.Elevated32 lots listed on 2026-10-14 — higher than 88% of the set's own readings; 846 packs on hand, higher than 37% over 26 readings in 90 days.32 lots · 846 packs · $18.89/pack
The Booster Pack's most recent plotted day carries an observed sale.
Indexed to each product’s own first stored day = 100. Booster Pack in front, 51 behind · dashed = guide price, no sale that day.Each line is that product’s own price divided by its own first stored day and multiplied by 100, so every series starts on the dotted rule and the axis measures APPRECIATION rather than price. Dollars could not do this job here: a booster pack and a booster box differ by two orders of magnitude, and on a shared dollar axis the pack would sit flat on the floor of the plot however far it had actually travelled. The Booster Pack is the base unit and is drawn in front; the rest are drawn behind it, and each one’s own numbers are in the table below. A dashed stretch is a run of days with no recorded sale, carrying the provider’s daily guide value — a quoted price, never a trade.Appreciation vs MSRP
ProductPriceMSRPvs MSRPEvery sealed product the catalog holds for this set, ordered by how standard a unit each is for tracking a set’s sealed price. PRICE is the product’s last stored day — a sale where one was recorded, the provider’s daily guide value where none was, and the row’s hover says which. MSRP is blank wherever no source is recorded against one, because an MSRP with nobody behind it is not a fact. VS MSRP is the price against that MSRP, as a percentage up to a doubling and as a multiple past it.Booster Pack$13.27——30th Celebration Booster Pack—30th Celebration Booster Pack. Last sale $13.27 on Oct 14, 2026. No MSRP is recorded against this product, so there is nothing to measure a premium from; the blank is a missing MSRP, not a missing price.Mini Tin [Lapras]$23.50——30th Celebration Mini Tin [Lapras]—30th Celebration Mini Tin [Lapras]. Quoted at $23.50 on Oct 14, 2026 — a guide price, with no sale recorded that day. No MSRP is recorded against this product, so there is nothing to measure a premium from; the blank is a missing MSRP, not a missing price.Mini Tin [Greninja]$23.76——30th Celebration Mini Tin [Greninja]—30th Celebration Mini Tin [Greninja]. Quoted at $23.76 on Oct 14, 2026 — a guide price, with no sale recorded that day. No MSRP is recorded against this product, so there is nothing to measure a premium from; the blank is a missing MSRP, not a missing price.Mini Tin [Night Pikachu]$24.45——30th Celebration Mini Tin [Night Pikachu]—30th Celebration Mini Tin [Night Pikachu]. Quoted at $24.45 on Oct 14, 2026 — a guide price, with no sale recorded that day. No MSRP is recorded against this product, so there is nothing to measure a premium from; the blank is a missing MSRP, not a missing price.Mini Tin [Moltres]$24.58——30th Celebration Mini Tin [Moltres]—30th Celebration Mini Tin [Moltres]. Quoted at $24.58 on Oct 14, 2026 — a guide price, with no sale recorded that day. No MSRP is recorded against this product, so there is nothing to measure a premium from; the blank is a missing MSRP, not a missing price.Mini Tin [Zapdos]$24.83——30th Celebration Mini Tin [Zapdos]—30th Celebration Mini Tin [Zapdos]. Quoted at $24.83 on Oct 14, 2026 — a guide price, with no sale recorded that day. No MSRP is recorded against this product, so there is nothing to measure a premium from; the blank is a missing MSRP, not a missing price.Mini Tin [Mewtwo]$25.55——30th Celebration Mini Tin [Mewtwo]—30th Celebration Mini Tin [Mewtwo]. Quoted at $25.55 on Oct 14, 2026 — a guide price, with no sale recorded that day. No MSRP is recorded against this product, so there is nothing to measure a premium from; the blank is a missing MSRP, not a missing price.Mini Tin [Mew]$25.90——30th Celebration Mini Tin [Mew]—30th Celebration Mini Tin [Mew]. Quoted at $25.90 on Oct 14, 2026 — a guide price, with no sale recorded that day. No MSRP is recorded against this product, so there is nothing to measure a premium from; the blank is a missing MSRP, not a missing price.
View all 52 sealed products →Method
Sealed product from 30th Celebration — the set this card was printed in. We track which set a product belongs to, not which cards are inside it. Appreciation is each product’s last stored price against its own recorded MSRP, in percent. The card’s call is the MEDIAN of those percentages across the products that have an MSRP — a median rather than a mean, so one outlier SKU cannot carry a whole set — and a product with no MSRP on file is left out of that aggregate rather than counted as zero; it still lists below with its price. MSRP is somebody’s assertion rather than a published dataset, so it is shown only where a source is recorded against it, and that source is on the row’s hover. The bands are a legend for the percentage the card prints beside them: within ±5% is at MSRP, which is this repo’s own fair-value tolerance; up to +25% is a slight premium; up to +100% a significant one; at or above +100% the price has at least doubled and the figure is stated as a multiple, because a four-digit percentage is not a number anybody reads. Each price line takes a day’s observed low/high sale range and plots its midpoint; on a day with no recorded sale it carries the provider’s own daily guide value instead — a quoted price, not a transaction — and those days are drawn dashed, never described as trades. Every line is indexed to its own first stored day = 100, so the chart compares appreciation between products rather than price levels: a booster pack and a booster box cannot honestly share a dollar axis.
Restock
Not trackedThis set has sealed products, but no retailer has ever been read for any of them. Not tracked is not sold out.
52 sealed products in this set, and no retailer has ever been read for any of them — which is not the same as sold out.
Best Buy: not currently tracked.Walmart: not currently tracked.Target: not currently tracked.GameStop: not currently tracked.
0 retailers tracked · 4 not monitoredEvery retailer in the registry has a cell, including the ones that are not tracked — a shelf nobody is watching reads UNKNOWN, never 'sold out'. One store's empty shelf is not the whole market, and an untracked one is not evidence about the market at all.Set-level: 30th Celebration sealed products, not this cardRetail rows attach to SEALED products only — no big-box retailer sells single cards — so this whole card is the SET's shelf availability. It is not a statement about this card, and a card's own price is unaffected by it.Print status unknownThere is no published source for whether a Pokémon product is still being printed — The Pokémon Company has never announced print cessation in any region, and the annual rotation announcement is about tournament legality, not production. So this is an inference, never a fact, and the verdict above comes from observed shelf readings instead. Nothing direct is on file here — no shelf reading either way and no recorded reprint announcement — and release age plus a price ratio is a hypothesis, not a print status, so no estimate is made.Method
Each row is one tracked retailer's most recent reading of one of the set's sealed products, at that retailer's own SKU. A restock is an observed OUT_OF_STOCK → IN_STOCK transition in that SKU's reading history, never a change we inferred from a price or a gap. Shelf prices are pre-tax and exclude shipping, so they are not delivered prices and are never fed into a floor.
Absorption
Building historyToo few readings of the book to tell a drawdown from noise. The count is on the card — see the note below.
29 readings of this book so far, one per 1 day, over 27d. The direction reads once there are enough of them to tell a drawdown from noise.
Method
Each reading takes the venue's own listing count for this card in this condition — the whole book — at that instant. The direction is classified by the platform's absorption reading over that series: a book drawn down with demand behind it reads as accumulation, one that refills after a drawdown reads as distribution. Copies and sellers come from the cheapest asks we sample, not from the book, and are labelled as such. Sold units are confirmed prints from the live tape over the same span, and are shown only when the tape reaches back past the first reading.
The direction is classified over the platform-standard 30-day trailing window. That window is a scope, not a history: it contains exactly the readings counted on this card and no others — and only readings that counted the venue’s own book, never a sampled one trended against a counted one.
Supply
Tight supply16 listed units against a 2.8/day pace is 5.8 days of stock. Under 7d reads tight, 30d or more reads heavy.
16 units listed across 11 sellers — 5.8d of stock at the 30-day pace of 2.8/day.
Listed · 11 sellers · $137.8516 unitsActive fixed-price asks with a known delivered price. Auctions are a separate market and never enter this count.Sold · 30d · 2.8/day83 unitsUnits over the last 30 days, on TCGplayer. Newest reading 2026-10-15.
Slab premium
Strong slab premiumThe dearest priced rung is ACE 10 at $59.55, 8.5× the $7.00 raw reference (cheapest delivered ask).
A ACE 10 is worth $59.55 — 8.5× the $7.00 raw cheapest delivered ask.
Dearest slab per grading company
ACE 10$59.558.5×ACE 10 — $59.55, 8.5× raw$59.55 · EBAY · 2026-10-10CGC 10$34.334.9×CGC 10 — $34.33, 4.9× raw$34.33 · EBAY · 2026-10-10Raw$7.00askA live listing. Nobody has paid this.1.0×Raw — $7.00, 1.0× rawThe cheapest copy actually listed for sale, delivered — item plus required shipping. An offer, not a price anybody has paid. Every multiple on this ladder is taken against it.A ACE 10 fetches 73% more than a CGC 10.
Grading ROI
Insufficient dataACE: No ACE population total for this printing, so P(10) has no honest denominator.
Best on ACE: No ACE population total for this printing, so P(10) has no honest denominator.
| VendorVendorThe grading company, one row each. Rows are the graders we hold both a fee schedule and a population census for — a grader we cannot price is left out rather than estimated. | FeeFeeThe all-in submission cost per card at this grader: grading tier plus shipping both ways and insurance, as published. A † marks a fee we could not read from a published schedule and had to carry from a prior reading. Lower is better. | P(10)P(10)The share of this card’s submissions to this grader that came back a 10, from its own population census. It is what WAS submitted and kept, not the odds your particular copy grades — a card people only submit when it looks perfect reads high here for that reason alone. | 10 price10 priceWhat a 10 from this grader actually sells for. The superscript says what kind of evidence that is — a sale, an unsold listing, or the provider’s own modelled guide. | ROI(10)ROI(10)Return if the card grades a 10 and sells at that price: (10 price − raw price − fee) over what you put in. The BEST case, before any probability is applied. Higher is better. | Risk-wtdRisk-wtdThe same return weighted by the odds of each grade, not just the 10 — the number to compare graders on, because a high P(10) at a high fee can lose to a lower one. A leading ≈ means the full grade distribution was unavailable and a coarser method stood in. Higher is better. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACE | $24.39ACE Basic — the cheapest tier accepting single-card submissions, read 2026-10-06. £18.00 converted at GBP/USD 1.355 (2026-09-01) — a conversion, not a quoted USD price. Cheaper tiers you cannot use today: Core $16.26, Value $20.33. | —The share of this card’s submissions to this grader that came back a 10, from its own population census. It is what WAS submitted and kept, not the odds your particular copy grades — a card people only submit when it looks perfect reads high here for that reason alone. | $59.55What a 10 from this grader actually sells for. The superscript says what kind of evidence that is — a sale, an unsold listing, or the provider’s own modelled guide. | -8%-$4.73 on a $56.39 cost basis. | —Risk-weighted ROI withheld: no ACE population total, so P(10) has no honest denominator. |
| CGC | $20.00CGC Economy — the cheapest tier accepting single-card submissions, read 2026-10-06. Cheaper tiers you cannot use today: Bulk $17.00. | —The share of this card’s submissions to this grader that came back a 10, from its own population census. It is what WAS submitted and kept, not the odds your particular copy grades — a card people only submit when it looks perfect reads high here for that reason alone. | $34.33What a 10 from this grader actually sells for. The superscript says what kind of evidence that is — a sale, an unsold listing, or the provider’s own modelled guide. | -43%-$22.22 on a $52.00 cost basis. | —Risk-weighted ROI withheld: no CGC population total, so P(10) has no honest denominator. |
Pre-grade this card →Photograph your own copy front and back for centering, wear and the odds of each grade. An estimate, not a grade.
$7.00 raw (cheapest delivered ask) + $24.39 ACE Basic + $25.00 ship/ins = $56.39 · less 13.25% sale fee · 45d lockup
ScarcityRoutineA named card at this rarity takes 1 in 98 packs on average, which is the commonest fifth of every card we hold pack odds for. The bands are the card-weighted quintiles of that population, not thresholds we picked.
1 in 98 packs for one copy of this card
Half of all openers get one within 68 packs
Special illustration rare1 in 181Special illustration rare — 10 cards at this rarity, so one NAMED Special illustration rare is 1 in 181 packs.Futuristic Rare1 in 163Futuristic Rare — 2 cards at this rarity, so one NAMED Futuristic Rare is 1 in 163 packs.Illustration rare1 in 98Illustration rare — 18 cards at this rarity, so one NAMED Illustration rare is 1 in 98 packs.Double rare1 in 55Double rare — 12 cards at this rarity, so one NAMED Double rare is 1 in 55 packs.Pikachu Rare1 in 30Pikachu Rare — 30 cards at this rarity, so one NAMED Pikachu Rare is 1 in 30 packs.Hit tiers in 30th Celebration, hardest at the top. Log scale.
Method
P(this card, per pack) = the published odds of its RARITY appearing, split evenly across the cards printed at that rarity in the set; the figure shown is 1/p, the mean number of packs to one copy. The ladder plots every tier of the set on a logarithmic scale, because a set spans two orders of magnitude between its commonest hit and its hardest and a linear scale would pin all but one of them to the same end.
The Pokémon Company has never published physical booster odds in any region — the only official drop-rate page covers the digital TCG Live packs and lists no probabilities at all. This figure is a hand-entered citation of a published pack-opening study of this set.
Print scarcity
Too new to readGraded population climbs for about a year after a set releases and then levels off, so a set inside that ramp looks lightly printed purely because nobody has sent its cards in yet. 30th Celebration is 0 months old. We hold the read until 12 months.
Graded population climbs for about a year after a set releases and then levels off, so a set inside that ramp looks lightly printed purely because nobody has sent its cards in yet. 30th Celebration is 0 months old. We hold the read until 12 months.
LightModerateHeavy
Model inputs
Packs per copy1 in 98Packs per copy1 in 98How many packs it takes to see one named copy of this card — the same figure SCARCITY leads with. It is what converts a set-wide print scale into this card’s own.Method
Graded population is print run × how often anyone bothers grading it, and the second factor moves with VALUE — so population is divided by price^0.606, the elasticity fitted across 3,826 cards that carry a population, a price and a pull rate at once. That normalised count is turned into a SET pack scale using the card’s pull rate (every card in a set is an independent read on how many packs exist, pooled by median), then brought back down to this card by its own pull rate. The band is a tertile of the result across every card that clears the gates.
Nobody has ever published a Pokémon print run, and this does not recover one — it is an ORDER, not a count. It reads surviving graded supply across PSA, CGC and ACE, so ungraded and sealed stock are invisible to it. What it is checked against: the model puts Black & White at the bottom of the catalog and modern Scarlet & Violet at the top, which is where the smallest and largest print runs actually are.
Card
Number133/128
RarityIllustration rare
Also known asZapdos alt art
Illustratormashu
Release dateSep 16, 2026
Card typePOKEMON
FinishesHolo
LanguagesEN
Set symbol
Competitive playFringe0.0% of 22,383 Standard decklists in the last 30 days, measured play below the 5% regular threshold.
0.0%In 2 of 22,383 Standard decklists across 338 events, last 30 days · 1.0 copy per deck that plays it.
Most often in Eelektrik (1), Mega Dragonite (1)
Copies1.0Mean copies per deck that runs it, over the 2 decks that do; never averaged against the decks that do not. The bar is scaled to 4, the per-deck limit.Top-cut lift0.00×0% of 3,647 top-cut decklists run it, against 0.0% of the whole field. Above 1.00 it is over-represented where the money is. Withheld under 20 top-cut decklists.Deck spread0.501 minus the concentration of this card across the deck archetypes that run it. 1.00 is spread evenly over many decks; 0 is one deck. At or above 0.5 concentration this is a ONE-DECK CARD: its demand rises and falls with a single archetype.
Player floor$0.26The cheapest currently-priced Standard-legal print of this card: Zapdos, Twilight Masquerade. What it costs to put the card in a deck, which is not the same question as what THIS print is worth.Premium over floor27×This printing's headline price ($7.00) against the player floor ($0.26). What a player pays for THIS art rather than for the cheapest legal copy of the same card.Playset$0.261.0 copies (the mean per deck that runs it) at the player floor of $0.26. What the decks on file actually bought.30d sold76 unitsUnits of THIS printing sold in the 30 days ending October 13, 2026, against the 30 days before that (0). Demand at a table and demand in the market are different measurements; this is the second one.Meta vs priceNot enough history (3 weeks)Spearman rank correlation of weekly share against weekly median price over the trailing 26 weeks, on the weeks carrying both. Printed only at 8 weeks or more; below that the count is stated instead of a coefficient off a handful of readings.
Meta share · % of Standard decklists (right axis)Median price · this print, $ (left axis)Units sold per day (bars)
Does the meta move the price? Share of Standard decklists running this card against this print's median sale price and units sold, day by day; the rank correlation above is printed once 8 weeks exist.
Fringe at 0.0% of Standard decklists. A playset costs $0.26 at the cheapest legal print.
94.5% of card lines in these decklists matched a card in our catalog; an unmatched line is never counted. Online events only, not Regionals or Worlds. Tournament results →
Card text
HP120
TypesLightning
StageBasic
AbilitiesAbility Flash-Pop FlappingOnce during your turn, if you have Moltres and Articuno in play, you may use this Ability. Attach a Basic Lightning Energy card from your hand to this Pokémon.
AttacksLLLC Thundering Lightning · 210Cost: Lightning · Lightning · Lightning · ColorlessThis Pokémon also does 60 damage to itself.
WeaknessFighting ×2
Retreat1
LegalStandard not legal · Expanded legal
Why It's Moving
- What changedWhat changedThe observable that moved, stated before any reason for it — the fact the rest of this panel has to account for.
- Sold median moved -15.3% over the trailing 7 days and +0.0% over 30 days, last printing at $7.00. Active TCGplayer listings fell 0% over the same 7 days to 0.
- Primary explanationPrimary explanationThe reading the evidence best supports. It is an explanation, never a forecast, and it is only as good as the Evidence row two lines down.
- Primary read: Relative strength scored 0/100 (composite weight 38%). — the largest single contributor to the current CAPITULATION regime read.
- AlternativeAlternativeA competing explanation the SAME evidence would also support. It is printed even when the primary looks strong: an explanation with no stated alternative is a story, not an analysis.
- Alternative explanation: Liquidity scored 90/100 (composite weight 38%).. With 11 distinct sellers/observations in the trailing window, either read is defensible — this is not a high-conviction single-cause move.
- EvidenceEvidenceThe specific observations the explanation rests on. If this row is thin, treat the explanation as thin — it is the only thing holding it up.
- Evidence: item-basis daily bars, TCGplayer active listings, absorption read ("Over 30d: inventory +1700.0%, cheap depth no data, sales velocity no data -> NEUTRAL.").
- ConfidenceConfidenceHow much weight to put on the primary explanation, given how much of the evidence actually resolved. It qualifies the row above; it never adds to it.
- Confidence: 62% (floor-confidence 40/100), based on 30 days of observations.
- What would disprove itWhat would disprove itThe observation that would break the primary explanation. It is what makes the reading falsifiable rather than unfalsifiable — and it is the thing to watch for next.
- This read would be wrong if active listings rebound above 0 while sold median keeps falling.
Undervalued Opportunities
Loading opportunities…
Provenance
| EvidenceEvidenceWhat kind of fact this row is. A completed sale, a live ask and a calculated guide price are three different weights of evidence about the same number, and this column is the difference between them. | ObservedObservedThe day the fact was read — not the day the underlying event happened, and not today. An old date is an old reading. | AgeAgeHow long ago this row was read, as of the moment the page was computed. | ConfidenceConfidenceHow much weight this row carries where it feeds a model, from the resolver that matched it. Lower means a looser match or a thinner source, and a low-confidence row is reweighted rather than dropped. | ModelledModelledYes = a CALCULATED value (a guide price, an estimate); No = something actually observed (a sale, a listing, a census count). A modelled row is evidence about a model, not about the market. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CatalogCard identity: set, number, rarity, finish, release date. It dates from the printing itself, so an old reading here is expected and is not staleness. | Sep 16, 2026 | 29d | 98% | No |
| Live askA copy offered for sale right now. An ask is what a seller wants, not what anyone paid — it bounds the price from above until it clears. | Oct 15, 2026 | 8m | 90% | No |
| Price statisticAn observed figure computed over several rows rather than one print — a delivered floor, a published median over a window. | Oct 15, 2026 | 8m | 90% | No |
| Confirmed saleA completed transaction at a known price — the strongest evidence on this page. Prices are delivered (item + required shipping). | Oct 15, 2026 | 1h | 85% | No |
| Inventory countHow many copies and listings stand on the book. What depth, supply and absorption are measured against. | Oct 15, 2026 | 8m | 70% | No |
| Guide priceA calculated market guide — a model of where the product is trading. Never a confirmed sale, and always marked Modelled. | Oct 14, 2026 | 1d | 60% | Yes |
Raw · Holo · Lightly PlayedWhat every row above was gathered for — one printing, in this one finish and condition or grade. Change either switcher in the header and you are reading a different one; the page's own URL is the address of exactly this one.pq-quant-2026.10.0The version of the scoring and analytics formulas that produced everything on this page. Two figures computed under different versions are not comparable, which is why the version is stated rather than assumed.
Related Printings
Nearby in 30th Celebration
Other printings of Zapdos
- Base Set #16/102· Rare· $47.94
- Wizards Black Star Promos #23· Common· $21.61
- Fossil #15/62· Rare· $19.99
- Fossil #30/62· Rare· $11.49
- Base Set 2 #20/130· Rare· $40.83
- Legendary Collection #19/110· Holo Rare· $45.72
- Aquapolis #44/147· Rare· $70.69
- Aquapolis #H32· Holo Rare· $290.00
and
Zapdos: common questions
How much is Zapdos worth?
$7.00, the sold median, as of October 15, 2026.
Is Zapdos rare?
Its printed rarity is Illustration rare.
What set is Zapdos from?
Zapdos (#133/128) is from 30th Celebration, released September 16, 2026.