live delivered asks
Insufficient data
No priced bars on file for this instrument yet.
as of — · UTC
Pikachu — 040/128 · 1DC——plotting daily medianitem price
Vol — sold·— prints·— obs
Insufficient data
No fair-value component could be computed for the trailing 30d window (no confirmed prints, no ask ladder, no trend anchor, no completed auctions). No point estimate is offered.
Nothing is listed for sale, so there is no book for one buyer to move.
0/100 across 1 of 11 inputs. Against: this one was printed in quantity. That is under half the model, so no call is made on it.
Not reading yet: value vs fair, price trend, money flow, book pressure, liquidity, relative strength, grading upside, manipulation risk, seller concentration, reprint risk.
The bottom line is a weighted mean of the signals that reported, renormalised so their weights sum to 1. Nothing defaults to a neutral 50: an input with no evidence is reweighted away and its absence is charged as a confidence penalty. Risk rows (manipulation, concentration, reprint) enter inverted. Data quality carries no weight at all — it decides whether the verdict may be spoken, because knowing a lot about a card is not a reason to buy it. Competitive meta sits OUTSIDE the weighted mean as a capped bonus added after it: a card nobody plays is never marked down for that, and a card the meta is built on can be marked up for it.
1 in 1.0 packs for pikachu rare, shared by 30 cards in 30th Celebration — but nothing on record says how many packs are in this set's sealed products, and a guessed pack count would sit invisibly inside the spend figure.
Breakdown
RarityPikachu RareRarityPikachu RareThe provider's own spelling, verbatim. The odds row and this printing have to carry the same string or no estimate is made — a mismatch must produce nothing rather than another rarity's rate.Slot odds1 in 1.0 packsSlot odds1 in 1.0 packsWargamer (observations by Discord user @Tommy13) — no sample size published. Measured Sep 17, 2026, 28d before this reading. Guaranteed slot: every pack contains one of the 30 holo Pikachu, so a NAMED Pikachu is 1 in 30 packs. Stated by both sources rather than sampled. Community measurement, not official odds: nobody publishes physical pack rates.Cards at rarity30 in 30th CelebrationCards at rarity30 in 30th CelebrationCounted from the catalog: 30 printings in 30th Celebration carry the rarity "Pikachu Rare".This card1 in 30 packs±30%This card1 in 30 packsThe rarity’s measured odds, split evenly across the 30 cards printed at it. That even split is the estimate's weakest link, and it is bounded rather than hand-waved: a published 8,000-pack study put two Special Illustration Rares from one set at 1 in 309 and 1 in 393 packs — same rarity, same set — so a per-card figure is good to about ±30%.P(this card, per pack) = the published odds of its RARITY appearing, split evenly across the cards printed at that rarity in the set. Expected packs is 1/p, the mean of the geometric distribution. The range plots expected pack spend ÷ the single's delivered price on a log axis centred on parity. Pack price is a sealed product's own price divided by its stated pack count, and is computed only where that count carries a source. The single is the cheapest delivered ask (item + required shipping) across venues — the same figure FAIR VALUE prices against.
The Pokémon Company has never published physical booster odds in any region — the only official drop-rate page covers the digital TCG Live packs and lists no probabilities at all. Every figure here is a hand-entered citation of a published pack-opening study, and each one names its source and sample on hover.
52 of this set’s 52 sealed products carry a price; none carries a recorded MSRP to measure appreciation against.
Appreciation vs MSRP
ProductPriceMSRPvs MSRPEvery sealed product the catalog holds for this set, ordered by how standard a unit each is for tracking a set’s sealed price. PRICE is the product’s last stored day — a sale where one was recorded, the provider’s daily guide value where none was, and the row’s hover says which. MSRP is blank wherever no source is recorded against one, because an MSRP with nobody behind it is not a fact. VS MSRP is the price against that MSRP, as a percentage up to a doubling and as a multiple past it.Sealed product from 30th Celebration — the set this card was printed in. We track which set a product belongs to, not which cards are inside it. Appreciation is each product’s last stored price against its own recorded MSRP, in percent. The card’s call is the MEDIAN of those percentages across the products that have an MSRP — a median rather than a mean, so one outlier SKU cannot carry a whole set — and a product with no MSRP on file is left out of that aggregate rather than counted as zero; it still lists below with its price. MSRP is somebody’s assertion rather than a published dataset, so it is shown only where a source is recorded against it, and that source is on the row’s hover. The bands are a legend for the percentage the card prints beside them: within ±5% is at MSRP, which is this repo’s own fair-value tolerance; up to +25% is a slight premium; up to +100% a significant one; at or above +100% the price has at least doubled and the figure is stated as a multiple, because a four-digit percentage is not a number anybody reads. Each price line takes a day’s observed low/high sale range and plots its midpoint; on a day with no recorded sale it carries the provider’s own daily guide value instead — a quoted price, not a transaction — and those days are drawn dashed, never described as trades. Every line is indexed to its own first stored day = 100, so the chart compares appreciation between products rather than price levels: a booster pack and a booster box cannot honestly share a dollar axis.
0 units listed — no 30-day sales pace to measure them against.
A TAG 10 is worth $187.50.
Dearest slab per grading company
TAG 10$187.50—TAG 10 — $187.50$187.50 · EBAY · 2026-10-08Best on TAG: No current raw price for this printing, so there is no cost basis to grade against.
| VendorVendorThe grading company, one row each. Rows are the graders we hold both a fee schedule and a population census for — a grader we cannot price is left out rather than estimated. | FeeFeeThe all-in submission cost per card at this grader: grading tier plus shipping both ways and insurance, as published. A † marks a fee we could not read from a published schedule and had to carry from a prior reading. Lower is better. | P(10)P(10)The share of this card’s submissions to this grader that came back a 10, from its own population census. It is what WAS submitted and kept, not the odds your particular copy grades — a card people only submit when it looks perfect reads high here for that reason alone. | 10 price10 priceWhat a 10 from this grader actually sells for. The superscript says what kind of evidence that is — a sale, an unsold listing, or the provider’s own modelled guide. | ROI(10)ROI(10)Return if the card grades a 10 and sells at that price: (10 price − raw price − fee) over what you put in. The BEST case, before any probability is applied. Higher is better. | Risk-wtdRisk-wtdThe same return weighted by the odds of each grade, not just the 10 — the number to compare graders on, because a high P(10) at a high fee can lose to a lower one. A leading ≈ means the full grade distribution was unavailable and a coarser method stood in. Higher is better. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TAG | $59.95TAG Standard — the cheapest tier accepting single-card submissions, read 2026-10-06. Cheaper tiers you cannot use today: Basic $22.00. | —The share of this card’s submissions to this grader that came back a 10, from its own population census. It is what WAS submitted and kept, not the odds your particular copy grades — a card people only submit when it looks perfect reads high here for that reason alone. | $187.50What a 10 from this grader actually sells for. The superscript says what kind of evidence that is — a sale, an unsold listing, or the provider’s own modelled guide. | —Return if the card grades a 10 and sells at that price: (10 price − raw price − fee) over what you put in. The BEST case, before any probability is applied. Higher is better. | —No raw price for this printing, so there is no cost basis to earn a return on. |
Half of all openers get one within 21 packs
P(this card, per pack) = the published odds of its RARITY appearing, split evenly across the cards printed at that rarity in the set; the figure shown is 1/p, the mean number of packs to one copy. The ladder plots every tier of the set on a logarithmic scale, because a set spans two orders of magnitude between its commonest hit and its hardest and a linear scale would pin all but one of them to the same end.
The Pokémon Company has never published physical booster odds in any region — the only official drop-rate page covers the digital TCG Live packs and lists no probabilities at all. This figure is a hand-entered citation of a published pack-opening study of this set.
Graded population climbs for about a year after a set releases and then levels off, so a set inside that ramp looks lightly printed purely because nobody has sent its cards in yet. 30th Celebration is 0 months old. We hold the read until 12 months.
Model inputs
Packs per copy1 in 30Packs per copy1 in 30How many packs it takes to see one named copy of this card — the same figure SCARCITY leads with. It is what converts a set-wide print scale into this card’s own.Graded population is print run × how often anyone bothers grading it, and the second factor moves with VALUE — so population is divided by price^0.606, the elasticity fitted across 3,826 cards that carry a population, a price and a pull rate at once. That normalised count is turned into a SET pack scale using the card’s pull rate (every card in a set is an independent read on how many packs exist, pooled by median), then brought back down to this card by its own pull rate. The band is a tertile of the result across every card that clears the gates.
Nobody has ever published a Pokémon print run, and this does not recover one — it is an ORDER, not a count. It reads surviving graded supply across PSA, CGC and ACE, so ungraded and sealed stock are invisible to it. What it is checked against: the model puts Black & White at the bottom of the catalog and modern Scarlet & Violet at the top, which is where the smallest and largest print runs actually are.

Does the meta move the price? Share of Standard decklists running this card against this print's median sale price and units sold, day by day; the rank correlation above is printed once 8 weeks exist.
94.5% of card lines in these decklists matched a card in our catalog; an unmatched line is never counted. Online events only, not Regionals or Worlds. Tournament results →
Loading opportunities…
| EvidenceEvidenceWhat kind of fact this row is. A completed sale, a live ask and a calculated guide price are three different weights of evidence about the same number, and this column is the difference between them. | ObservedObservedThe day the fact was read — not the day the underlying event happened, and not today. An old date is an old reading. | AgeAgeHow long ago this row was read, as of the moment the page was computed. | ConfidenceConfidenceHow much weight this row carries where it feeds a model, from the resolver that matched it. Lower means a looser match or a thinner source, and a low-confidence row is reweighted rather than dropped. | ModelledModelledYes = a CALCULATED value (a guide price, an estimate); No = something actually observed (a sale, a listing, a census count). A modelled row is evidence about a model, not about the market. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CatalogCard identity: set, number, rarity, finish, release date. It dates from the printing itself, so an old reading here is expected and is not staleness. | Sep 16, 2026 | 29d | 98% | No |
Nearby in 30th Celebration
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