Japanese collectors had this Charizard in July 2007, a good four months before Secret Wonders carried the same card to English shelves in November of that

as of Oct 25, 2026 · UTC

history since Sep 2026

Charizard — p605896 · 1DMkt$60.790.0%guide priceitem price

Vol — sold·0 prints·1 obssingle obs — no range

Live Listings

Pricevs MktQtyCond

TCGplayer0

eBay0

Fair value

Insufficient data

No fair value is published for this card — no confirmed print or completed auction in 30 days — an estimate built from live asks alone would be a restatement of the book.

Market safety

No book

Nothing is listed for sale, so there is no book for one buyer to move.

Bottom line

No call

Supply

Nothing listed

0 units listed — no 30-day sales pace to measure them against.

Listed0 units

Print scarcity

Set not covered

A set needs at least three cards carrying a price, a graded population and a pull rate at once before its print scale means anything. this set does not reach that, so there is nothing to rank this card against.

LightModerateHeavy

Method

Graded population is print run × how often anyone bothers grading it, and the second factor moves with VALUE — so population is divided by price^0.606, the elasticity fitted across 3,826 cards that carry a population, a price and a pull rate at once. That normalised count is turned into a SET pack scale using the card’s pull rate (every card in a set is an independent read on how many packs exist, pooled by median), then brought back down to this card by its own pull rate. The band is a tertile of the result across every card that clears the gates.

Nobody has ever published a Pokémon print run, and this does not recover one — it is an ORDER, not a count. It reads surviving graded supply across PSA, CGC and ACE, so ungraded and sealed stock are invisible to it. What it is checked against: the model puts Black & White at the bottom of the catalog and modern Scarlet & Violet at the top, which is where the smallest and largest print runs actually are.

Why It's Moving

What changedWhat changedThe observable that moved, stated before any reason for it — the fact the rest of this panel has to account for.: Modelled guide price moved +0.0% over the trailing 7 days and +0.0% over 30 days, now at $60.79.
Primary explanationPrimary explanationThe reading the evidence best supports. It is an explanation, never a forecast, and it is only as good as the Evidence row two lines down.: Primary read: no single factor dominates; the composite score is being driven by broad, low-amplitude movement across most inputs.
AlternativeAlternativeA competing explanation the SAME evidence would also support. It is printed even when the primary looks strong: an explanation with no stated alternative is a story, not an analysis.: Alternative explanation: with only 0 distinct sellers/observations in the trailing window, the move could just as easily be sampling noise rather than a durable shift.
Evidence

Highest Volume

The 12 most-traded cards by dollar volume over the last 30 days
#	Card	SetSetThe set this printing belongs to. Sets differ in print run and age, which is most of why two cards at the same price behave differently.	Trend 30DTrend 30DThe last 30 days of price, drawn from a zero-independent scale. The shape is the reading — the level is the Price column beside it.	30D30DPrice change over the last 30 calendar days, signed. A dash when the series has no price close enough to 30 days ago to measure from.	PricePriceThe card’s current market price as the wall quotes it (an item price, before shipping).	30d vol30d volume30d volumeDollars traded over the last 30 days — units sold each day times that day’s price, summed. The same figure the wall sorts by, and the order this list is in.	FV GapFV GapPrice against fair value, signed. NEGATIVE is below the model — the card trades under its fair value — which is the opposite direction from the Pop 30D column’s colouring.	LiqLiqLiquidity, 0–100 — how easily a position clears, never whether it is cheap. Four readings, equally weighted, each independently nullable: trade rate (the chance it trades today, from 30d units sold), trade breadth (how many of the last 30 days carried a trade), queue clearance (30d units sold against the units on the board) and seller dispersion (how many different people are selling it). A reading nobody can measure is absent and the rest reweight — never filled in with a zero.	VelocityVelocityConfirmed sales per day. Higher means a thicker tape, so every other figure in the row rests on more evidence.	Days InvDays InvHow many days the listed supply would take to clear at the current sale pace. Lower is a tighter market; a very high number usually means the pace, not the supply, is the problem.	SupplySupplyUnits listed for sale right now across the venues we track. It is the raw count of asks, not what is buyable at any one price.	Pop 30DPop 30DChange in graded population over 30 days. Rising means supply of slabs is growing, which is the ordinary up-is-up reading and generally NOT good for price.
1	Mega Rayquaza ex110M6: Storm Emeralda110 · Special Art Rare	M6: Storm Emeralda		-22.5%	$269.87^guideThe card’s current market price as the wall quotes it (an item price, before shipping). Source: guide · item.-22.5%

Ranked by dollars traded over 30 days · refreshed hourly

The whole wall →

Provenance

EvidenceEvidenceWhat kind of fact this row is. A completed sale, a live ask and a calculated guide price are three different weights of evidence about the same number, and this column is the difference between them.	ObservedObservedThe day the fact was read — not the day the underlying event happened, and not today. An old date is an old reading.	AgeAgeHow long ago this row was read, as of the moment the page was computed.	ConfidenceConfidenceHow much weight this row carries where it feeds a model, from the resolver that matched it. Lower means a looser match or a thinner source, and a low-confidence row is reweighted rather than dropped.	ModelledModelledYes = a CALCULATED value (a guide price, an estimate); No = something actually observed (a sale, a listing, a census count). A modelled row is evidence about a model, not about the market.

Related Printings

More Holo Rare

8—

year.

On

the

Japanese

DP3:

Shining

Darkness

holo,

the

Fire-type

spreads

its

wings

against

a

fiery

red

backdrop

with

a

glittering

holographic

texture,

mouth

open

mid-roar.

As

a

holo

rare

rather

than

a

chase

slot,

it

is

the

era's

accessible

Charizard.

The modelled guide sits at $61; no PSA population is on file.

No signal reported, so there is nothing to add up yet. That is under half the model, so no call is made on it.

0 of 11 inputs · 0% weight · -35% confidence

Not reading yet: value vs fair, price trend, money flow, book pressure, liquidity, relative strength, grading upside, manipulation risk, seller concentration, reprint risk, scarcity.

Value vs fair17%no readingPrice trend13%no readingMoney flow11%no readingBook pressure11%no readingLiquidity9%no readingManipulation risk9%no readingRelative strength7%no readingScarcity7%no readingGrading upside6%no readingSeller concentration5%no readingReprint risk5%no reading

The bottom line is a weighted mean of the signals that reported, renormalised so their weights sum to 1. Nothing defaults to a neutral 50: an input with no evidence is reweighted away and its absence is charged as a confidence penalty. Risk rows (manipulation, concentration, reprint) enter inverted. Data quality carries no weight at all — it decides whether the verdict may be spoken, because knowing a lot about a card is not a reason to buy it. Competitive meta sits OUTSIDE the weighted mean as a capped bonus added after it: a card nobody plays is never marked down for that, and a card the meta is built on can be marked up for it.

Evidence: item-basis daily bars, absorption read ("Insufficient data: 0 inventory observation(s) in the trailing 30d window (need >= 4).").

Confidence

Confidence: 0%, based on 29 days of observations.

What would disprove it

This read would be wrong if the price reverses over the next 7 days.

Raw · Japanese · Holo · Unlimited · Near Mintpq-quant-2026.10.0

Highest Volume

The 12 most-traded cards by dollar volume over the last 30 days
#	Card	SetSetThe set this printing belongs to. Sets differ in print run and age, which is most of why two cards at the same price behave differently.	Trend 30DTrend 30DThe last 30 days of price, drawn from a zero-independent scale. The shape is the reading — the level is the Price column beside it.	30D30DPrice change over the last 30 calendar days, signed. A dash when the series has no price close enough to 30 days ago to measure from.	PricePriceThe card’s current market price as the wall quotes it (an item price, before shipping).	30d vol30d volume30d volumeDollars traded over the last 30 days — units sold each day times that day’s price, summed. The same figure the wall sorts by, and the order this list is in.	FV GapFV GapPrice against fair value, signed. NEGATIVE is below the model — the card trades under its fair value — which is the opposite direction from the Pop 30D column’s colouring.	LiqLiqLiquidity, 0–100 — how easily a position clears, never whether it is cheap. Four readings, equally weighted, each independently nullable: trade rate (the chance it trades today, from 30d units sold), trade breadth (how many of the last 30 days carried a trade), queue clearance (30d units sold against the units on the board) and seller dispersion (how many different people are selling it). A reading nobody can measure is absent and the rest reweight — never filled in with a zero.	VelocityVelocityConfirmed sales per day. Higher means a thicker tape, so every other figure in the row rests on more evidence.	Days InvDays InvHow many days the listed supply would take to clear at the current sale pace. Lower is a tighter market; a very high number usually means the pace, not the supply, is the problem.	SupplySupplyUnits listed for sale right now across the venues we track. It is the raw count of asks, not what is buyable at any one price.	Pop 30DPop 30DChange in graded population over 30 days. Rising means supply of slabs is growing, which is the ordinary up-is-up reading and generally NOT good for price.
1	Mega Rayquaza ex110M6: Storm Emeralda110 · Special Art Rare	M6: Storm Emeralda		-22.5%	$269.87^guideThe card’s current market price as the wall quotes it (an item price, before shipping). Source: guide · item.-22.5%

Ranked by dollars traded over 30 days · refreshed hourly

The whole wall →

$9.3k

CatalogCard identity: set, number, rarity, finish, release date. It dates from the printing itself, so an old reading here is expected and is not staleness.	Jul 5, 2007	19.3y	98%	No
Guide priceA calculated market guide — a model of where the product is trading. Never a confirmed sale, and always marked Modelled.	Oct 25, 2026	18h	90%	Yes