The vendor's catalog photograph of DON!! Card Pack Vol. 1. It identifies the product; it is not evidence of condition, of what is inside, or of any price on this page.guide · modelled
$70.98, the venue's modelled guide price, not a confirmed sale, as of October 18, 2026.
DON!! Card Pack Vol. 1 is from One Piece Promotion Cards.
We don't currently track retail stock for DON!! Card Pack Vol. 1, which is not the same as it being sold out.
as of Oct 3, 2026 · UTC
DON!! Card Pack Vol. 1 · 1DMkt$70.980.0%guide priceitem price
Vol — sold·0 prints·1 obssingle obs — no range
floor thesis · 30-120d horizon · 59% confidence on 37/100 data quality
Scenarios
ILLIQUID_UNKNOWN persists near current levels (non-probabilistic range -- data quality too thin to assign probabilities).rangeBASE · rangeILLIQUID_UNKNOWN persists near current levels (non-probabilistic range -- data quality too thin to assign probabilities).Evidence corroborates faster than expected, accelerating the thesis (non-probabilistic range).rangeBULL · rangeEvidence corroborates faster than expected, accelerating the thesis (non-probabilistic range).Evidence reverses sooner than expected, invalidating the thesis (non-probabilistic range).rangeBEAR · rangeEvidence reverses sooner than expected, invalidating the thesis (non-probabilistic range).Catalysts
Risks
Invalidation
The strongest case against this thesis: Data quality scored 37/100 (composite weight 100%).
Model pq-quant-2026.10.0, as of 2026-10-18.
Research classification generated from observable market data with stated confidence and assumptions. Not personalized financial advice.
No published pack count for this product, so its price cannot be put on a per-pack footing.
The 45th dearest of the 117 priced sealed products in One Piece Promotion Cards.
Withheld — 8 of the 9 inputs have no sealed evidence, so there is nothing honest to blend.
8 inputs have no sealed evidence and were reweighted away: price trend, supply tightness, absorption, auction demand, liquidity, grading reflexivity, relative strength, reprint / supply risk.
Scored over a 30-day window on a sample of 9, formula pq-quant-2026.10.0. The packet reweighted 8 missing inputs away and applied a 35% confidence penalty for them: priceTrend, supplyTightness, absorption, auctionDemand, liquidity, gradingReflexivity, relativeStrength, reprintSupplyRisk.
On file: 8 asks · 117 daily guide points · 102 stock readings.
| EvidenceEvidenceWhat kind of fact this row is. A completed sale, a live ask and a calculated guide price are three different weights of evidence about the same number, and this column is the difference between them. | ObservedObservedThe day the fact was read — not the day the underlying event happened, and not today. An old date is an old reading. | AgeAgeHow long ago this row was read, as of the moment the page was computed. | ConfidenceConfidenceHow much weight this row carries where it feeds a model, from the resolver that matched it. Lower means a looser match or a thinner source, and a low-confidence row is reweighted rather than dropped. | ModelledModelledYes = a CALCULATED value (a guide price, an estimate); No = something actually observed (a sale, a listing, a census count). A modelled row is evidence about a model, not about the market. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Live askA copy offered for sale right now. An ask is what a seller wants, not what anyone paid — it bounds the price from above until it clears. | Oct 18, 2026 | 2d | 90% | No |
| Price statisticAn observed figure computed over several rows rather than one print — a delivered floor, a published median over a window. | Oct 19, 2026 | 2d | 90% | No |
| Guide priceA calculated market guide — a model of where the product is trading. Never a confirmed sale, and always marked Modelled. | Oct 3, 2026 | 18d | 90% | Yes |
| Inventory countHow many copies and listings stand on the book. What depth, supply and absorption are measured against. | Oct 18, 2026 | 2d | 70% | No |
Every price is that product’s newest stored daily bar, picked by the same precedence the chart above uses — a real observed sale beats a modelled guide, and the guide stands in only on days with no sale. Per-pack divides by the PUBLISHED pack count and is withheld wherever that count is not on file, because a guessed denominator makes a fabricated price. Products the set has but we cannot price keep their row, with a dash.
No retailer is tracked for this product yet, which is not the same as it being sold out.
No wholesale listings seen for this product as of the last catalogue read on 2026-10-20.
No wholesale listings seen for this product as of the last catalogue read on 2026-10-20.
A wholesale ask is a distributor’s price for a whole lot — freight, minimums and any trade terms sit behind it — and is not a price a single box trades at. Links go to the distributor’s own page; nothing here is an affiliate link. Per-pack figures divide the lot price by the pack count the distributor published, never by a guessed one.
No wholesale listing has ever been matched to this set.
No distributor we read lists One Piece Promotion Cards in bulk. That says nothing about the print run — only about these shelves.
A distributor’s public catalogue is a proxy for supply, not the print run.