Snorlax GX — SM05Raw · Holo · Near MintEvery price, print, listing and score on this page belongs to this one printing in this one condition or grade — switch either dropdown and you are looking at a different one.
The condition or grade being priced. Each one is a separate instrument that trades at its own price, so choosing one replaces every figure on the page. “All conditions” and “All grades” are a union of the siblings — their tape, listings and volume are combined, with one sibling named as the reference for price and analytics.
▲MarkupMarkupA sustained positive trend with inventory under control — the book is not refilling as fast as it is being taken.▾UndervaluedUndervaluedThe market price sits below the blended fair-value band — not merely below its midpoint. The blend and its four components are on the FAIR VALUE card; the wider the band, the weaker this call.⇈AccumulationAccumulationBoth directions agree over the flow window: net dollars cleared at or above the prevailing ask, AND the top-decile-notional prints skewed the same way. Direction of confirmed prints only — never a forecast.1D·ask0.0%1D return (ask-based)0.0%No print in this window — every bar closed on the same provider guide value, so the sold-price reading would be a confident 0%. This is the delivered ask floor's own change over the same window instead: a real move nobody has yet paid, not a sale.7D+24.8%7D return+24.8%Change in the headline market price against the close 7 observed bars back. Bars exist only for days this card actually traded, so the span can be longer than the label's calendar reading.30D+64.4%30D return+64.4%Change in the headline market price against the close 30 observed bars back. Bars exist only for days this card actually traded, so the span can be longer than the label's calendar reading.As of 09:48ZAs of 09:48ZThe market price, its 1D/7D/30D returns, the order book, the For Sale counts and today’s price bar as they stood when this page was built. The page itself is served from a shared cache, so this stamp — not the moment you loaded it — is how old these numbers are. Your browser re-reads them a moment after the page arrives and this line follows.
Mkt Price
$28.39item·0.0%
Last $22.99 · $24.29 delivered · 3d
Mkt Price$28.39 itemThe venue’s published daily market guide, which the venue itself declares MODELLED. Nothing is confirmed to have traded at it, no copy is listed at it, and it is not our estimate — it is theirs. It is quoted on the ITEM basis — the basis every wall tile is quoted on — and it is what the chart plots on a day with no print of its own. Last confirmed fixed-price sale: $22.99 at 2026-10-14T00:09:32.683Z. Delivered $24.29 with shipping. One trade, not a statistic — the figure above it is the day's median.
Fair Value
$21.19delivered
≈$20.20 item · Band $10.72–$31.65
Fair Value$21.19 deliveredBand is ±49.4% of the point estimate: 2 of 4 components available (excluded: trend anchor — a trailing average on a confirmed rise, auction clearing — 35% of weight reweighted away, 18% confidence penalty), on 31 observation(s) in the trailing 30d. Thin samples and missing components widen the band 2.87x over the raw component spread. No recent clearing price: too few prints in the last 120h to say what it is trading at now. A weighted blend of independent estimates, quoted DELIVERED — item plus required shipping — where Mkt Price beside it may be item basis. Read the band, not the point: its width is the model's own confidence. On the ITEM basis TCGplayer’s guide is quoted on, that is about $20.20 — this card’s own prints carry a median delivered-minus-item wedge of $0.99, measured day by day, never an assumed postage rate.
Liquidity
79/100
Good liquidity
Liquidity79 /100How easily a position clears, scored 0–100. Four readings, equally weighted, each independently nullable: trade rate (the chance it trades today, from 30d units sold), trade breadth (how many of the last 30 days carried a trade), queue clearance (30d units sold against the units on the board) and seller dispersion (how many different people are selling it). A reading nobody can measure is absent and the rest reweight — never filled in with a zero.
30D Vol
186units▲+48.8%
units · vs prior 30d
30D Vol186 units186 units over the last 30 days, on TCGplayer and eBay. Newest reading Oct 16, 2026. Against 125 in the 30 days before.
For Sale
83units
64 sellers
For Sale83 unitsEvery active fixed-price ask with a known delivered price. Auctions are a separate market and are never counted here.
Graded Pop
1,799▲+4.0%
across 2 graders
Graded Pop1,799Every slab reported by every grader we hold a census for, pooled. A share of what was submitted and kept — not the odds a copy grades 10.
PSA
How this summary is madeThe first sentence is written by a language model from this card’s own data. The second is computed from the live numbers on this page every time it loads, so it moves with the market.
One candle per UTC day — the finest grain this market recordsOne candle per ISO week (Mon–Sun), rolled up from the daily barsOne candle per calendar month, rolled up from the daily barsitem — the sale price alone, excluding shipping. This is the basis TCGplayer’s own market guide is published on, and the basis every wall tile, screener row and watchlist quote uses, so it is what the headline compares against.delivered — item + required shipping, the basis every alarm, floor and fair value uses. A print whose shipping the venue never stated has no delivered price and is excluded from the bar rather than counted at its item price; a day with no priced print falls back to the guide, which is an item price and says so.
How each period is drawn. Candles and bars show the full observed open/high/low/close; line and area show the close alone. The DATA does not change with the mark.
Price scale (linear, log or percent), auto-scaling, and the note on exactly how these bars were built.
Expand the chart to the whole viewport. Same bars and same drawings — only the room they get changes.
Cursor — chart crosshair, pan and zoomTrend line — two pointsHorizontal line — one click, priced at the axisRay — two points, extended forwardZone — two cornersFibonacci retracement — anchor the move, start to endNote — click, then typeMeasure — drag for change, percent and barsMagnet — snap each new anchor to the nearest bar's open, high, low or close, so a line lands on an observation rather than between two of them.Nothing to clear — there are no drawings on this card.DRW
Fair valueUNDERVALUEDThe cheapest delivered ask sits more than 5% below the blended fair-value estimate (FAIR_VALUE_AT_FAIR_TOLERANCE_PCT).
Fair value $21.19 delivered, about $20.20 on the item basis; the cheapest delivered ask is 29.2% below it$21.19delivered-29.2%The cheapest delivered ask ($14.99) against the blended fair-value estimate.top 15%top 15% of 6,124 tracked on FV gap · Ranked against every tracked card as of Oct 16, 2026; the number above is live.
$14.99
Supply
•Ample supply83 listed units against a 6.2/day pace is 13.4 days of stock. Under 7d reads tight, 30d or more reads heavy.
83 units listed across 64 sellers — 13.4d of stock at the 30-day pace of 6.2/day.
PopulationAll graders pooled1,799Every slab reported by every grader we hold a census for, as each of them states its own total. A share of what was submitted and kept — never the odds a copy grades 10. The bars below sum to 1,804, not 1,799: a grader can report a pooled rung and its qualified variants separately, so the stated total is the authority and the bars are what is chartable.CGC313Slabs CGC itself reports for this card. Switching tabs changes the whole chart below to that grader's own grade curve.PSA1,486Slabs PSA itself reports for this card. Switching tabs changes the whole chart below to that grader's own grade curve. The bars below sum to 1,491, not 1,486: a grader can report a pooled rung and its qualified variants separately, so the stated total is the authority and the bars are what is chartable.
1010 — 254 slabs, 14.1% of the 1,804 charted hereCGC 14 (Gem Mint 10 · Pristine 10) · PSA 2409.5 — 6 slabs, 0.3% of the 1,804 charted hereCGC 699 — 613 slabs, 34.0% of the 1,804 charted hereCGC 49 · PSA 5648.5 — 72 slabs, 4.0% of the 1,804 charted hereCGC 71 · PSA 188 — 386 slabs, 21.4% of the 1,804 charted hereCGC 51 · PSA 3357.5 — 29 slabs, 1.6% of the 1,804 charted hereCGC 2977 — 134 slabs, 7.4% of the 1,804 charted hereCGC 19 · PSA 1156.5 — 12 slabs, 0.7% of the 1,804 charted hereCGC 1266 — 106 slabs, 5.9% of the 1,804 charted hereCGC 22 · PSA 845.5 — 16 slabs, 0.9% of the 1,804 charted hereCGC 1655 — 95 slabs, 5.3% of the 1,804 charted hereCGC 9 · PSA 864.5 — 3 slabs, 0.2% of the 1,804 charted hereCGC 344 — 37 slabs, 2.1% of the 1,804 charted hereCGC 2 · PSA 353.5 — 2 slabs, 0.1% of the 1,804 charted hereCGC 233 — 12 slabs, 0.7% of the 1,804 charted hereCGC 1 · PSA 112.5 — 1 slabs, 0.1% of the 1,804 charted hereCGC 122 — 5 slabs, 0.3% of the 1,804 charted herePSA 51.5 — 1 slabs, 0.1% of the 1,804 charted hereCGC 111 — 11 slabs, 0.6% of the 1,804 charted herePSA 11AAuth — 9 slabs, 0.5% of the 1,804 charted hereCGC 5 · PSA 4
Listed · 64 sellers · $1,658.1383 unitsActive fixed-price asks with a known delivered price. Auctions are a separate market and never enter this count.Sold · 30d · 6.2/day186 unitsUnits over the last 30 days, on TCGplayer and eBay, against 125 in the 30 days before. Newest reading 2026-10-16.Graded · CGC 313 · PSA 1,4861,799 slabsEvery slab reported by every grader we hold a census for, pooled. A share of what was submitted and kept — not the odds your copy grades 10.
Print scarcity
•Set not coveredA set needs at least three cards carrying a price, a graded population and a pull rate at once before its print scale means anything. this set does not reach that, so there is nothing to rank this card against.
A set needs at least three cards carrying a price, a graded population and a pull rate at once before its print scale means anything. this set does not reach that, so there is nothing to rank this card against.
LightModerateHeavy
Model inputs
Graded copies1,804 copies
Absorption
—Building historyToo few readings of the book to tell a drawdown from noise. The count is on the card — see the note below.
26 readings of this book so far, one per 1 day, over 30d. The direction reads once there are enough of them to tell a drawdown from noise.
Method▾
Each reading takes the venue's own listing count for this card in this condition — the whole book — at that instant. The direction is classified by the platform's absorption reading over that series: a book drawn down with demand behind it reads as accumulation, one that refills after a drawdown reads as distribution. Copies and sellers come from the cheapest asks we sample, not from the book, and are labelled as such. Sold units are confirmed prints from the live tape over the same span, and are shown only when the tape reaches back past the first reading.
The direction is classified over the platform-standard 30-day trailing window. That window is a scope, not a history: it contains exactly the readings counted on this card and no others — and only readings that counted the venue’s own book, never a sampled one trended against a counted one.
Competitive play▼Not Standard-legalPublished as not legal in Standard, and in none of the 22,383 Standard decklists in the last 30 days.
Not legal in Standard, and in none of the 22,383 Standard decklists across 338 events, last 30 days.
30d sold191 units (+47% vs prior 30d)Units of THIS printing sold in the 30 days ending October 13, 2026, against the 30 days before that (130). Demand at a table and demand in the market are different measurements; this is the second one.Meta vs priceNot enough history (0 weeks)Spearman rank correlation of weekly share against weekly median price over the trailing 26 weeks, on the weeks carrying both. Printed only at 8 weeks or more; below that the count is stated instead of a coefficient off a handful of readings.
94.5% of card lines in these decklists matched a card in our catalog; an unmatched line is never counted. Online events only, not Regionals or Worlds.
Why It's Moving
What changedWhat changedThe observable that moved, stated before any reason for it — the fact the rest of this panel has to account for.
Modelled guide price moved +24.8% over the trailing 7 days and +64.4% over 30 days, now at $28.39. Active TCGplayer listings fell 0% over the same 7 days to 0.
Primary explanationPrimary explanationThe reading the evidence best supports. It is an explanation, never a forecast, and it is only as good as the Evidence row two lines down.
Primary read: Price trend scored 100/100 (composite weight 31%). — the largest single contributor to the current MARKUP regime read.
AlternativeAlternativeA competing explanation the SAME evidence would also support. It is printed even when the primary looks strong: an explanation with no stated alternative is a story, not an analysis.
Alternative explanation: Relative strength scored 98/100 (composite weight 21%).. With 64 distinct sellers/observations in the trailing window, either read is defensible — this is not a high-conviction single-cause move.
Provenance▾
EvidenceEvidenceWhat kind of fact this row is. A completed sale, a live ask and a calculated guide price are three different weights of evidence about the same number, and this column is the difference between them.
ObservedObservedThe day the fact was read — not the day the underlying event happened, and not today. An old date is an old reading.
AgeAgeHow long ago this row was read, as of the moment the page was computed.
ConfidenceConfidenceHow much weight this row carries where it feeds a model, from the resolver that matched it. Lower means a looser match or a thinner source, and a low-confidence row is reweighted rather than dropped.
ModelledModelledYes = a CALCULATED value (a guide price, an estimate); No = something actually observed (a sale, a listing, a census count). A modelled row is evidence about a model, not about the market.
CCCCost: Colorless · Colorless · ColorlessCollapse · 80 — This Pokémon is now Asleep.
CCCCCCost: Colorless · Colorless · Colorless · Colorless · ColorlessThunderous Snore · 180 — This attack can be used if this Pokémon is Asleep. If it is not Asleep, this attack does nothing.
CCCCCCost: Colorless · Colorless · Colorless · Colorless · ColorlessPulverizing Pancake GX · 210 — This Pokémon is now Asleep. (You can’t use more than 1 GX attack in a game.)
What the market is actually asking right now — the cheapest delivered price, or the newest confirmed print when no ladder exists. The card’s verdict is where this line falls against the band.
$21.19Fair value$21.19The blend’s point estimate — the weighted centre of the four component reads listed below. It is the middle of a band, not a target: read the band’s width before the point.
$10.72The bottom of the stated fair-value band — the cheap end of the blend, not a floor and not a support level. A wider band is the model saying it is less sure, so the two ends are more informative together than the point between them.$31.65The top of the stated fair-value band — the rich end of the blend, not a ceiling and not a target. A wider band is the model saying it is less sure, so the two ends are more informative together than the point between them.
Sales VWAP$23.9962%Sales VWAP$23.99Time-decayed, unit-weighted mean delivered price of confirmed prints — the last 48h dominate.Weight 62% of the blend, after reweighting away the inputs with no evidence.Depth clearing$16.7038%Depth clearing$16.70VWAP of the cheapest tranche of the live delivered-ask ladder — the price at which real fixed-price supply actually clears.Weight 38% of the blend, after reweighting away the inputs with no evidence.Trend anchor$23.790%Trend anchor$23.79The rise is confirmed and this anchor (a trailing SMA) sits on the far side of what the card is printing — reweighted away, not blended against the move.Weight 0% of the blend, after reweighting away the inputs with no evidence.Auction clearingN/A—Auction clearingN/AUnavailable in the trailing 30d window — reweighted away, not defaulted.No evidence for this input, so it carries no weight — the blend is the other components, reweighted.
≈$20.20 item basis · ±49.4% band · 3 of 4 inputs · 31 obs / 30dBand is ±49.4% of the point estimate: 2 of 4 components available (excluded: trend anchor — a trailing average on a confirmed rise, auction clearing — 35% of weight reweighted away, 18% confidence penalty), on 31 observation(s) in the trailing 30d. Thin samples and missing components widen the band 2.87x over the raw component spread. No recent clearing price: too few prints in the last 120h to say what it is trading at now.
›29.2% under fair — buy at $14.99 delivered.
Market safety
▲Elevated riskA spike here outlives the 7-day window and not the 30-day one: it would move this week's return, and an ordinary month of this card's trading absorbs it.
$1,658 clears the cheap side — 9.8 days of turnover (0.41 book-months, 66 asks).
Book
10%·$387.99·$16.98 ask-23%Sweeping 10% of the visible book costs $387.99The next unbought ask after that sweep sits at $16.98 ask — -23% against today's cheapest.Visible asks only, at delivered prices. An unshipped listing has no delivered price and is not in this ladder.50%·$838.60·$19.98 ask-9%Sweeping 50% of the visible book costs $838.60The next unbought ask after that sweep sits at $19.98 ask — -9% against today's cheapest.Visible asks only, at delivered prices. An unshipped listing has no delivered price and is not in this ladder.80%·$1,346·$22.48 ask+2%Sweeping 80% of the visible book costs $1,346The next unbought ask after that sweep sits at $22.48 ask — +2% against today's cheapest.Visible asks only, at delivered prices. An unshipped listing has no delivered price and is not in this ladder.Book $1,658Total notional on the visible ask ladder, and the largest single seller's share of it. A book that is mostly one seller's inventory is one decision away from moving.Best ask vs fair · $14.99 vs $21.19-29.3%Best ask vs fair-29.3%$14.99 vs $21.19
Mechanics▾
Cost to +50%$1,658
clears the entire visible book
Days to absorb9.8
83 units to control
Book breadth1 level
83 units on the board
Book / 30d sold0.41x
30d traded $4,031
VenuesTCGplayer
The absorption ladder walks the visible delivered-price ask book cheapest-first: what each slice of the book costs, the ask it leaves marginal, and how far that sits from the last price the card actually traded at. Manipulation risk is the worse of two reads — how many days of this card’s own turnover it would take to absorb the cost of control, and whether the whole buyable book fits inside a single ordinary order.
Flow
—SteadyThis week's daily sold units overlap the middle half of the rest of the window, so no change in pace is separable from the noise. Trading at its own normal rate.
35 sold in 7d, 0.8× the 30d pace — 30d prints clear at $18.00 median, +20.1% vs the $14.99 floor.
This week 35 · last week 37 · 30d/wk 43
Recent prints
$16.00+6.7%1d ago$16.00 delivered, 1 unit, 2026-10-16T00:00:00.000ZMeasured against today's cheapest delivered ask — a print above it is information, not bad news.$14.990.0%1d ago$14.99 delivered, 1 unit, 2026-10-16T00:00:00.000ZMeasured against today's cheapest delivered ask — a print above it is information, not bad news.$12.34-17.7%1d ago$12.34 delivered, 1 unit, 2026-10-16T00:00:00.000ZMeasured against today's cheapest delivered ask — a print above it is information, not bad news.$25.00
Method▾
Daily units are the venue's own sold-quantity history, expanded off each bucket's real span, plus confirmed prints from the other side of the market. Prints come from the live sales tape at delivered prices. The floor is the cheapest delivered ask (item + required shipping) across venues — the same one FAIR VALUE prices against.
Over 30d: 31 confirmed print(s) (3 with no contemporaneous ask reference, excluded from net flow); net flow +$508.80 across 25 buy-side vs 3 sell-side unit(s); large prints (>= $27.40) were 16% of notional and skewed buy-side -> ACCUMULATING.
Bottom line
▲Buy81/100 on the weighted composite: at or above 65 is a buy, at or below 35 a sell, and everything between is a hold.
81/100 across 8 of 11 inputs. For: the cheapest ask is 29.2% under fair.
Value vs fair100Value vs fair100/100The cheapest delivered ask against the blended fair-value estimate, two points per percent. Above 50 the card is trading under what the evidence says it is worth. Withheld entirely when fair value declares itself UNKNOWN — a discount measured against an untrustworthy anchor is not a discount.Carries 17% of the composite.Price trend100Price trend100/1007-day and 30-day returns read against the noise of this card’s own series. Above 50 the price moved further than its own noise explains; below 50 it moved the other way. Withheld on a window with no confirmed print, where the line is the relay’s published guide and the return would be a reading of its revision schedule.Carries 13% of the composite.Relative strength98Relative strength98/100This card’s 30-day return as a percentile of every tracked card that has one. 50 is "moved with the market". Declines to speak until the ranked universe is large enough to mean it.Carries 7% of the composite.Money flow78Money flow78/100Confirmed prints split into buy-side and sell-side against the prevailing ask, on a log scale — one decade of imbalance earns the full swing, because 100:1 is a thinner sample saying what 10:1 already said.Carries 11% of the composite.Liquidity79Liquidity79/100Four equally-weighted readings of what counterparties did: the chance it trades today, how many of the last 30 days carried a trade, 30-day units sold against the units on the board, and how many different people are selling it. A reading nobody can measure is absent and the rest reweight.Carries 9% of the composite.Book pressure70Book pressure70/100Supply leaving the market or refilling it. Prefers the 30-day inventory change; falls back to the venue's own listing count over the readings held, capped tighter because a shorter window is weaker evidence. Withheld on a count that never moves, or on a book so small that one listing's arrival pins the percent to a rail.Carries 11% of the composite.Manipulation risk55Manipulation risk55/100RISK-ORIENTED. What it costs to walk the visible book up 50%, against both real trailing volume and one buyer’s cheque book. High here is bad, and it enters the composite inverted.Carries 9% of the composite, inverted: 55 risk entered as 45.Grading upside56Grading upside56/100Best expected return across grading vendors, half a point per percent — the optionality on top of the raw thesis, never the thesis itself.Carries 6% of the composite.
8 of 11 inputs · 83% weight · -9% confidence▾
Not reading yet: seller concentration, reprint risk, scarcity.
Value vs fair17%100The cheapest delivered ask against the blended fair-value estimate, two points per percent. Above 50 the card is trading under what the evidence says it is worth. Withheld entirely when fair value declares itself UNKNOWN — a discount measured against an untrustworthy anchor is not a discount.Price trend13%1007-day and 30-day returns read against the noise of this card’s own series. Above 50 the price moved further than its own noise explains; below 50 it moved the other way. Withheld on a window with no confirmed print, where the line is the relay’s published guide and the return would be a reading of its revision schedule.Relative strength7%98This card’s 30-day return as a percentile of every tracked card that has one. 50 is "moved with the market". Declines to speak until the ranked universe is large enough to mean it.Money flow11%78Confirmed prints split into buy-side and sell-side against the prevailing ask, on a log scale — one decade of imbalance earns the full swing, because 100:1 is a thinner sample saying what 10:1 already said.
Gem rate
▼Hard gem · choose PSAPSA issued a 10 on 16.2% of its 1,486 slabs of this printing. Next best is CGC at 4.5% on 313 slabs. Easy at 60% or more, moderate from 35%, hard under 35%. Only graders with 30+ slabs on file are compared.
PSA gems 16.2% of 1,486 slabs; next best CGC at 4.5%.
10 rate by grader
PSA · choose16.2%PSA 10240 of 1,486PSA: 240 of the 1,486 PSA slabs on file are a 10 (PSA 10) — 16.2%, 95% interval 14.4%–18.1%.CGC4.5%Gem Mint 10 + Pristine 1014 of 313CGC: 14 of the 313 CGC slabs on file are a 10 (Gem Mint 10 + Pristine 10) — 4.5%, 95% interval 2.7%–7.4%.
Share of what was submitted and kept — not the odds your copy grades 10.
Slab premium
▲Strong slab premiumThe dearest priced rung is PSA 10 at $1,749.00, 116.7× the $14.99 raw reference (cheapest delivered ask).
A PSA 10 is worth $1,749.00 — 116.7× the $14.99 raw cheapest delivered ask.
Dearest slab per grading company
PSA 10$1,749.00117×PSA 10 — $1,749.00, 116.7× raw$2,400.00 · EBAY · 2026-10-12 · $2,500.00 · EBAY · 2026-10-12 · $2,340.00 · EBAY · 2026-10-10 +14 more print(s)ACE 10$1,318.3687.9×ACE 10 — $1,318.36, 87.9× raw$1,318.36 · EBAY · 2026-08-12CGC 9.5$285.00guideThe provider’s MODELLED value for this grade — not a sale and not even an offer. Often extrapolated from the grades that did sell.19.0×CGC 9.5 — $285.00, 19.0× rawTAG 9$99.996.7×TAG 9 — $99.99, 6.7× raw$99.99 · EBAY · 2026-07-29SGC 9$45.003.0×SGC 9 — $45.00, 3.0× raw$45.00 · EBAY · 2026-09-28Raw$14.99askA live listing. Nobody has paid this.1.0×Raw — $14.99, 1.0× rawThe cheapest copy actually listed for sale, delivered — item plus required shipping. An offer, not a price anybody has paid. Every multiple on this ladder is taken against it.
A PSA 10 fetches 33% more than a ACE 10.
One rung down, a PSA 9 is $95.00 — 6.3× raw.
Grading ROI
▲GradePSA: +$192.35 expected, still +$166.30 at the 95% lower bound of the gem share — break-even needs 3% gems; observed 16% (95% floor 14%, n=1486).
Best on PSA: +$192.35 expected, still +$166.30 at the 95% lower bound of the gem share — break-even needs 3% gems; observed 16% (95% floor 14%, n=1486).
Odds of a 10 vs what it takes
PSA needs 3% tens to break even; the census shows 16%, with a 95% interval of 14% to 18% on 1486 slabs.
break-even 3.0%Break-even3.0%The 10 rate this submission would need just to cover the raw price and the fee. It is the white line on the meter above: the solid segment has to clear it before grading is worth doing at all.observed 16.2% [14.4%–18.1%] n=1486Observed 10 rate16.2%Measured over 1486 graded copies in the census, with a 95% interval of 14.4%–18.1% around it — the band on the meter IS that interval, and it is the width of the doubt, not of the opportunity. A small n makes it wide.
VendorVendorThe grading company, one row each. Rows are the graders we hold both a fee schedule and a population census for — a grader we cannot price is left out rather than estimated.
FeeFeeThe all-in submission cost per card at this grader: grading tier plus shipping both ways and insurance, as published. A † marks a fee we could not read from a published schedule and had to carry from a prior reading. Lower is better.
P(10)P(10)The share of this card’s submissions to this grader that came back a 10, from its own population census. It is what WAS submitted and kept, not the odds your particular copy grades — a card people only submit when it looks perfect reads high here for that reason alone.
10 price10 priceWhat a 10 from this grader actually sells for. The superscript says what kind of evidence that is — a sale, an unsold listing, or the provider’s own modelled guide.
ROI(10)ROI(10)Return if the card grades a 10 and sells at that price: (10 price − raw price − fee) over what you put in. The BEST case, before any probability is applied. Higher is better.
Pre-grade this card →Photograph your own copy front and back for centering, wear and the odds of each grade. An estimate, not a grade.
$14.99 raw (cheapest delivered ask) + $59.99 PSA Standard + $25.00 ship/ins = $99.98 · less 13.25% sale fee · 45d lockup
Share of what was submitted and kept — not the odds your copy grades 10.
Graded copies
1,804 copies
Slabs on record across PSA, CGC and ACE, summed over every grade. The model’s raw input — it is NOT the print run, because a card people grade often will show a large population off a small press run. Ungraded and sealed copies are invisible to it.
Method▾
Graded population is print run × how often anyone bothers grading it, and the second factor moves with VALUE — so population is divided by price^0.606, the elasticity fitted across 3,826 cards that carry a population, a price and a pull rate at once. That normalised count is turned into a SET pack scale using the card’s pull rate (every card in a set is an independent read on how many packs exist, pooled by median), then brought back down to this card by its own pull rate. The band is a tertile of the result across every card that clears the gates.
Nobody has ever published a Pokémon print run, and this does not recover one — it is an ORDER, not a count. It reads surviving graded supply across PSA, CGC and ACE, so ungraded and sealed stock are invisible to it. What it is checked against: the model puts Black & White at the bottom of the catalog and modern Scarlet & Violet at the top, which is where the smallest and largest print runs actually are.
EvidenceEvidenceThe specific observations the explanation rests on. If this row is thin, treat the explanation as thin — it is the only thing holding it up.
Evidence: item-basis daily bars, TCGplayer active listings, absorption read ("Over 30d: inventory -84.8%, cheap depth no data, sales velocity no data -> ABSORPTION.").
ConfidenceConfidenceHow much weight to put on the primary explanation, given how much of the evidence actually resolved. It qualifies the row above; it never adds to it.
Confidence: 40% (floor-confidence 60/100), based on 983 days of observations.
What would disprove itWhat would disprove itThe observation that would break the primary explanation. It is what makes the reading falsifiable rather than unfalsifiable — and it is the thing to watch for next.
This read would be wrong if active listings rebound above 0 while sold median keeps falling.
CatalogCard identity: set, number, rarity, finish, release date. It dates from the printing itself, so an old reading here is expected and is not staleness.
Feb 3, 2017
9.7y
98%
No
Live askA copy offered for sale right now. An ask is what a seller wants, not what anyone paid — it bounds the price from above until it clears.
Oct 17, 2026
6h
90%
No
Price statisticAn observed figure computed over several rows rather than one print — a delivered floor, a published median over a window.
Oct 17, 2026
6h
90%
No
Confirmed saleA completed transaction at a known price — the strongest evidence on this page. Prices are delivered (item + required shipping).
Oct 14, 2026
3d
85%
No
Inventory countHow many copies and listings stand on the book. What depth, supply and absorption are measured against.
Oct 17, 2026
6h
70%
No
Guide priceA calculated market guide — a model of where the product is trading. Never a confirmed sale, and always marked Modelled.
Oct 17, 2026
10h
60%
Yes
Population censusA grader's published count of the copies it has slabbed at each grade. A record of what was submitted and kept, never the odds a copy grades.
Oct 16, 2026
11h
60%
No
Raw · Holo · Near MintWhat every row above was gathered for — one printing, in this one finish and condition or grade. Change either switcher in the header and you are reading a different one; the page's own URL is the address of exactly this one.pq-quant-2026.10.0The version of the scoring and analytics formulas that produced everything on this page. Two figures computed under different versions are not comparable, which is why the version is stated rather than assumed.
Highest Volume
The 12 most-traded cards by dollar volume over the last 30 days
#
Card
SetSetThe set this printing belongs to. Sets differ in print run and age, which is most of why two cards at the same price behave differently.
Trend 30DTrend 30DThe last 30 days of price, drawn from a zero-independent scale. The shape is the reading — the level is the Price column beside it.
30D30DPrice change over the last 30 calendar days, signed. A dash when the series has no price close enough to 30 days ago to measure from.
PricePriceThe card’s current market price as the wall quotes it (an item price, before shipping).
30d vol30d volume30d volumeDollars traded over the last 30 days — units sold each day times that day’s price, summed. The same figure the wall sorts by, and the order this list is in.
FV GapFV GapPrice against fair value, signed. NEGATIVE is below the model — the card trades under its fair value — which is the opposite direction from the Pop 30D column’s colouring.
LiqLiqLiquidity, 0–100 — how easily a position clears, never whether it is cheap. Four readings, equally weighted, each independently nullable: trade rate (the chance it trades today, from 30d units sold), trade breadth (how many of the last 30 days carried a trade), queue clearance (30d units sold against the units on the board) and seller dispersion (how many different people are selling it). A reading nobody can measure is absent and the rest reweight — never filled in with a zero.
VelocityVelocityConfirmed sales per day. Higher means a thicker tape, so every other figure in the row rests on more evidence.
Days InvDays InvHow many days the listed supply would take to clear at the current sale pace. Lower is a tighter market; a very high number usually means the pace, not the supply, is the problem.
SupplySupplyUnits listed for sale right now across the venues we track. It is the raw count of asks, not what is buyable at any one price.
Pop 30DPop 30DChange in graded population over 30 days. Rising means supply of slabs is growing, which is the ordinary up-is-up reading and generally NOT good for price.
$25.00 delivered, 1 unit, 2026-10-15T07:00:00.000ZMeasured against today's cheapest delivered ask — a print above it is information, not bad news.
$19.70+31.4%2d ago$19.70 delivered, 1 unit, 2026-10-15T07:00:00.000ZMeasured against today's cheapest delivered ask — a print above it is information, not bad news.
$10.00-33.3%2d ago$10.00 delivered, 1 unit, 2026-10-15T00:00:00.000ZMeasured against today's cheapest delivered ask — a print above it is information, not bad news.
Liquidity9%79Four equally-weighted readings of what counterparties did: the chance it trades today, how many of the last 30 days carried a trade, 30-day units sold against the units on the board, and how many different people are selling it. A reading nobody can measure is absent and the rest reweight.
Book pressure11%70Supply leaving the market or refilling it. Prefers the 30-day inventory change; falls back to the venue's own listing count over the readings held, capped tighter because a shorter window is weaker evidence. Withheld on a count that never moves, or on a book so small that one listing's arrival pins the percent to a rail.
Manipulation risk9%55RISK-ORIENTED. What it costs to walk the visible book up 50%, against both real trailing volume and one buyer’s cheque book. High here is bad, and it enters the composite inverted.
Grading upside6%56Best expected return across grading vendors, half a point per percent — the optionality on top of the raw thesis, never the thesis itself.
Scarcity7%no readingNeither scarcity read is available: no pull rate on file for this card’s rarity, and no print-scale estimate for its set (or the set is inside its first 12 months, where graded population has not accumulated yet).
Seller concentration5%no readingThe venue attributes no seller identity to these asks.
Reprint risk5%no readingPrint status is unestablished — no shelf observation and no recorded reprint event.
The bottom line is a weighted mean of the signals that reported, renormalised so their weights sum to 1. Nothing defaults to a neutral 50: an input with no evidence is reweighted away and its absence is charged as a confidence penalty. Risk rows (manipulation, concentration, reprint) enter inverted. Data quality carries no weight at all — it decides whether the verdict may be spoken, because knowing a lot about a card is not a reason to buy it. Competitive meta sits OUTSIDE the weighted mean as a capped bonus added after it: a card nobody plays is never marked down for that, and a card the meta is built on can be marked up for it.
Risk-wtdRisk-wtdThe same return weighted by the odds of each grade, not just the 10 — the number to compare graders on, because a high P(10) at a high fee can lose to a lower one. A leading ≈ means the full grade distribution was unavailable and a coarser method stood in. Higher is better.
ACE
$24.39ACE Basic — the cheapest tier accepting single-card submissions, read 2026-10-06. £18.00 converted at GBP/USD 1.355 (2026-09-01) — a conversion, not a quoted USD price. Cheaper tiers you cannot use today: Core $16.26, Value $20.33.
—The share of this card’s submissions to this grader that came back a 10, from its own population census. It is what WAS submitted and kept, not the odds your particular copy grades — a card people only submit when it looks perfect reads high here for that reason alone.
$1,318$1,318.36. What a 10 from this grader actually sells for. The superscript says what kind of evidence that is — a sale, an unsold listing, or the provider’s own modelled guide.
+1676%+$1,079.30 on a $64.38 cost basis.
—Risk-weighted ROI withheld: no ACE population total, so P(10) has no honest denominator.
BGS
$79.95BGS Express — the cheapest tier accepting single-card submissions, read 2026-09-01. Cheaper tiers you cannot use today: Base $14.95.
—The share of this card’s submissions to this grader that came back a 10, from its own population census. It is what WAS submitted and kept, not the odds your particular copy grades — a card people only submit when it looks perfect reads high here for that reason alone.
—No 10 price is on file for BGS, so no return can be computed for it — an absence, never a zero.
—Return if the card grades a 10 and sells at that price: (10 price − raw price − fee) over what you put in. The BEST case, before any probability is applied. Higher is better.
—Risk-weighted ROI withheld: no BGS population total, so P(10) has no honest denominator.
CGC
$20.00CGC Economy — the cheapest tier accepting single-card submissions, read 2026-10-06. Cheaper tiers you cannot use today: Bulk $17.00.
4.5%95% interval 2.7%–7.4% on n=313. A share of what was submitted and kept, not submission odds.
$199$199.00. What a 10 from this grader actually sells for. The superscript says what kind of evidence that is — a sale, an unsold listing, or the provider’s own modelled guide.
+188%+$112.64 on a $59.99 cost basis.
≈-23%Only 25% of the CGC distribution is priced, so this falls back to P(10)·ROI(10) + (1−P(10))·ROI(pooled sub-10 price).
PSA
$59.99PSA Standard — the cheapest tier accepting single-card submissions, read 2026-10-06. Cheaper tiers you cannot use today: Value Bulk $24.99, Value $32.99.
16.2%95% interval 14.4%–18.1% on n=1486. A share of what was submitted and kept, not submission odds.
$1,749$1,749.00. What a 10 from this grader actually sells for. The superscript says what kind of evidence that is — a sale, an unsold listing, or the provider’s own modelled guide.
+1418%+$1,417.28 on a $99.98 cost basis.
+192%Risk-weighted across all 12 PSA rungs; 96% of the distribution carried its own price, the remaining 4% valued at the pooled sub-10 price.
SGC
$79.00†No published SGC fee verified — this is the generic fallback, not SGC's price.
—The share of this card’s submissions to this grader that came back a 10, from its own population census. It is what WAS submitted and kept, not the odds your particular copy grades — a card people only submit when it looks perfect reads high here for that reason alone.
—No 10 price is on file for SGC, so no return can be computed for it — an absence, never a zero.
—Return if the card grades a 10 and sells at that price: (10 price − raw price − fee) over what you put in. The BEST case, before any probability is applied. Higher is better.
—Risk-weighted ROI withheld: no SGC population total, so P(10) has no honest denominator. Fee is the generic $79.00 fallback — SGC's own published price is not in the fee table.
TAG
$59.95TAG Standard — the cheapest tier accepting single-card submissions, read 2026-10-06. Cheaper tiers you cannot use today: Basic $22.00.
—The share of this card’s submissions to this grader that came back a 10, from its own population census. It is what WAS submitted and kept, not the odds your particular copy grades — a card people only submit when it looks perfect reads high here for that reason alone.
—No 10 price is on file for TAG, so no return can be computed for it — an absence, never a zero.
—Return if the card grades a 10 and sells at that price: (10 price − raw price − fee) over what you put in. The BEST case, before any probability is applied. Higher is better.
—Risk-weighted ROI withheld: no TAG population total, so P(10) has no honest denominator.
SM Black Star Promos
