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Mawile V — 178/195
Mawile V — 178/195Raw · Holo · DamagedEvery price, print, listing and score on this page belongs to this one printing in this one condition or grade — switch either dropdown and you are looking at a different one.A different printing of this card — a reverse holo, a promo stamp, another language. Choosing one NAVIGATES: every price, print, listing and score on the page belongs to that printing instead, because they are separate instruments that trade at different prices.The condition or grade being priced. Each one is a separate instrument that trades at its own price, so choosing one replaces every figure on the page. “All conditions” and “All grades” are a union of the siblings — their tape, listings and volume are combined, with one sibling named as the reference for price and analytics.
Illiquid / UnknownIlliquid / UnknownThe classifier refused to call one: too little liquidity or too small a sample to test any rule. The absence of a read, never a tenth regime.As of 03:50ZAs of 03:50ZThe market price, its 1D/7D/30D returns, the order book, the For Sale counts and today’s price bar as they stood when this page was built. The page itself is served from a shared cache, so this stamp — not the moment you loaded it — is how old these numbers are. Your browser re-reads them a moment after the page arrives and this line follows.
Mkt Price
Mkt Price$0.63 itemThe venue’s published daily market guide, which the venue itself declares MODELLED. Nothing is confirmed to have traded at it, no copy is listed at it, and it is not our estimate — it is theirs. It is quoted on the ITEM basis — the basis every wall tile is quoted on — and it is what the chart plots on a day with no print of its own.$0.63item—
modelled guide
Fair ValueN/A
Fair ValueN/ANo fair value is published for this instrument: no confirmed print or completed auction in 30 days — an estimate built from live asks alone would be a restatement of the book. The components below show what evidence exists; the estimate they would blend to is withheld rather than quoted. A weighted blend of independent estimates, quoted DELIVERED — item plus required shipping — where Mkt Price beside it may be item basis. Read the band, not the point: its width is the model's own confidence.Liquidity
Liquidity0 /100How easily a position clears, scored 0–100. Four readings, equally weighted, each independently nullable: trade rate (the chance it trades today, from 30d units sold), trade breadth (how many of the last 30 days carried a trade), queue clearance (30d units sold against the units on the board) and seller dispersion (how many different people are selling it). A reading nobody can measure is absent and the rest reweight — never filled in with a zero.0/100
Thin liquidity
30D Vol
30D Vol1 units1 units over the last 30 days, on TCGplayer — the venue’s OWN reported sold quantity, not a confirmed print of ours, so it is what that venue says rather than a receipt we hold. Newest reading May 10, 2026. No earlier 30-day window to compare against. Some days come from spreading a multi-day provider bucket across the days it covered.1units
TCGplayer reported
For Sale
For Sale0 unitsEvery active fixed-price ask with a known delivered price. Auctions are a separate market and are never counted here.0units
live delivered asks
Graded Pop
Graded Pop371Every slab reported by every grader we hold a census for, pooled. A share of what was submitted and kept — not the odds a copy grades 10.371+1.4%
across 3 graders
No live auction bids — this market has no resting bid book.
Cross-Market BasisNo ask ladder was available for this instrument, so the ask side is empty. No bid side exists: this market has no resting bid book. There are no live auction bids and no published buylist for this instrument, so the bid side is empty rather than synthesized from asks, price history or a spread assumption.——
No active listings.
Ask depth—Ask depth—Every live fixed-price ask summed at its DELIVERED price — what clearing the whole visible book would cost. There is no bid side to set it against: no auction has a bid on it and no buylist quotes this instrument, and an absent side is never drawn as a zero.
One candle per UTC day — the finest grain this market recordsOne candle per ISO week (Mon–Sun), rolled up from the daily barsOne candle per calendar month, rolled up from the daily barsitem — the sale price alone, excluding shipping. This is the basis TCGplayer’s own market guide is published on, and the basis every wall tile, screener row and watchlist quote uses, so it is what the headline compares against.delivered — item + required shipping, the basis every alarm, floor and fair value uses. A print whose shipping the venue never stated has no delivered price and is excluded from the bar rather than counted at its item price; a day with no priced print falls back to the guide, which is an item price and says so.
How each period is drawn. Candles and bars show the full observed open/high/low/close; line and area show the close alone. The DATA does not change with the mark.
Price scale (linear, log or percent), auto-scaling, and the note on exactly how these bars were built.
Expand the chart to the whole viewport. Same bars and same drawings — only the room they get changes.Cursor — chart crosshair, pan and zoomTrend line — two pointsHorizontal line — one click, priced at the axisRay — two points, extended forwardZone — two cornersFibonacci retracement — anchor the move, start to endNote — click, then typeMeasure — drag for change, percent and barsMagnet — snap each new anchor to the nearest bar's open, high, low or close, so a line lands on an observation rather than between two of them.Nothing to clear — there are no drawings on this card.DRW
as of Oct 13, 2026 · UTC
history since Jul 2026
Mawile V — 178/195 · 1DMkt$0.630.0%guide priceitem price
Vol — sold·0 prints·1 obssingle obs — no range
Live Listings
Pricevs MktQtyCond
TCGplayer0
eBay0
By condition & grade
Fair value
Insufficient data
No fair value is published for this card — no confirmed print or completed auction in 30 days — an estimate built from live asks alone would be a restatement of the book.
Market safety
No bookNo visible asks, so there is no control cost to band.
Nothing is listed for sale, so there is no book for one buyer to move.
Flow
Thin tapeToo little sold-unit evidence to read a pace from — see the note below.
Insufficient data
Only 1 unit sold in 30 days — under the 8-unit floor for reading a pace.
Method
Daily units are the venue's own sold-quantity history, expanded off each bucket's real span, plus confirmed prints from the other side of the market. Prints come from the live sales tape at delivered prices. The floor is the cheapest delivered ask (item + required shipping) across venues — the same one FAIR VALUE prices against.
Bottom line
No callUnder half the model had evidence, so the score is a statement about the inputs that reported rather than about the card. No call until more of them do.
24/100 across 4 of 11 inputs. Against: liquidity reads 0/100. That is under half the model, so no call is made on it.
Liquidity0Liquidity0/100Four equally-weighted readings of what counterparties did: the chance it trades today, how many of the last 30 days carried a trade, 30-day units sold against the units on the board, and how many different people are selling it. A reading nobody can measure is absent and the rest reweight.Carries 9% of the composite.Grading upside4Grading upside4/100Best expected return across grading vendors, half a point per percent — the optionality on top of the raw thesis, never the thesis itself.Carries 6% of the composite.Relative strength43Relative strength43/100This card’s 30-day return as a percentile of every tracked card that has one. 50 is "moved with the market". Declines to speak until the ranked universe is large enough to mean it.Carries 7% of the composite.Scarcity52Scarcity52/100How few of this card exist, as a percentile of every card we can read. Prefers PRINT SCARCITY’s estimate — graded population with the value confound divided out, turned into a print scale by the pull rate — and falls back to packs-per-copy alone where that cannot be read. Scarce is oriented as GOOD, on the theory that thinner supply supports a price. Weighted low on purpose: scarcity is fixed at print and the market has had years to price it in, so this is a structural prior rather than an edge.Carries 7% of the composite.
4 of 11 inputs · 29% weight · -35% confidence
Not reading yet: value vs fair, price trend, money flow, book pressure, manipulation risk, seller concentration, reprint risk.
Liquidity9%0Four equally-weighted readings of what counterparties did: the chance it trades today, how many of the last 30 days carried a trade, 30-day units sold against the units on the board, and how many different people are selling it. A reading nobody can measure is absent and the rest reweight.Grading upside6%4Best expected return across grading vendors, half a point per percent — the optionality on top of the raw thesis, never the thesis itself.Relative strength7%43This card’s 30-day return as a percentile of every tracked card that has one. 50 is "moved with the market". Declines to speak until the ranked universe is large enough to mean it.Scarcity7%52How few of this card exist, as a percentile of every card we can read. Prefers PRINT SCARCITY’s estimate — graded population with the value confound divided out, turned into a print scale by the pull rate — and falls back to packs-per-copy alone where that cannot be read. Scarce is oriented as GOOD, on the theory that thinner supply supports a price. Weighted low on purpose: scarcity is fixed at print and the market has had years to price it in, so this is a structural prior rather than an edge.Value vs fair17%no readingFair value returned UNKNOWN — too few comparable prints to anchor an estimate.Price trend13%no readingNo price history in the 7- and 30-day windows, or no confirmed print in 30 days — the line is the relay’s guide.Money flow11%no readingNo confirmed prints with a contemporaneous ask to classify against.Book pressure11%no readingNeeds a 30-day inventory change, or book counts spanning ≥3 days that move at all and rest on ≥8 listings. Collection of `inventory_observations` began 2026-09-02.Manipulation risk9%no readingNo visible ask book, so there is no control cost to band.Seller concentration5%no readingThe venue attributes no seller identity to these asks.Reprint risk5%no readingPrint status is unestablished — no shelf observation and no recorded reprint event.
The bottom line is a weighted mean of the signals that reported, renormalised so their weights sum to 1. Nothing defaults to a neutral 50: an input with no evidence is reweighted away and its absence is charged as a confidence penalty. Risk rows (manipulation, concentration, reprint) enter inverted. Data quality carries no weight at all — it decides whether the verdict may be spoken, because knowing a lot about a card is not a reason to buy it. Competitive meta sits OUTSIDE the weighted mean as a capped bonus added after it: a card nobody plays is never marked down for that, and a card the meta is built on can be marked up for it.
Chase
No ask on fileThe rip is priced, but no venue has a delivered ask for this card right now — item plus required shipping — so there is nothing to weigh it against.
1 in 27 packs for ultra rare, shared by 26 cards in Silver Tempest — but no venue has a delivered ask for this card, so there is nothing to weigh a rip against.
Breakdown
RarityUltra RareRarityUltra RareThe provider's own spelling, verbatim. The odds row and this printing have to carry the same string or no estimate is made — a mismatch must produce nothing rather than another rarity's rate.Slot odds1 in 27 packsSlot odds1 in 27 packsTCGplayer (Authentication Center) — no sample size published. Measured Nov 13, 2022, 1,431d before this reading. Full-Art Pokémon V (2.10%) + Full-Art Trainer (1.01%) + Alt-Art Pokémon V (0.60%) = 3.71% of packs (>8,000 packs). Community measurement, not official odds: nobody publishes physical pack rates.Cards at rarity26 in Silver TempestCards at rarity26 in Silver TempestCounted from the catalog: 26 printings in Silver Tempest carry the rarity "Ultra Rare".This card1 in 701 packs±30%This card1 in 701 packsThe rarity’s measured odds, split evenly across the 26 cards printed at it. That even split is the estimate's weakest link, and it is bounded rather than hand-waved: a published 8,000-pack study put two Special Illustration Rares from one set at 1 in 309 and 1 in 393 packs — same rarity, same set — so a per-card figure is good to about ±30%.Pack price$14.53Pack price$14.53$523.25 for Silver Tempest Booster Box (its newest stored price, Oct 13, 2026) ÷ 36 packs. The pack count is a distributor’s own published lot configuration, agreed by every distributor that carries this product. A pack count is never assumed from the product type.Method
P(this card, per pack) = the published odds of its RARITY appearing, split evenly across the cards printed at that rarity in the set. Expected packs is 1/p, the mean of the geometric distribution. The range plots expected pack spend ÷ the single's delivered price on a log axis centred on parity. Pack price is a sealed product's own price divided by its stated pack count, and is computed only where that count carries a source. The single is the cheapest delivered ask (item + required shipping) across venues — the same figure FAIR VALUE prices against.
The Pokémon Company has never published physical booster odds in any region — the only official drop-rate page covers the digital TCG Live packs and lists no probabilities at all. Every figure here is a hand-entered citation of a published pack-opening study, and each one names its source and sample on hover.
Sealed
No MSRP on fileThese products are priced, but not one of them carries a recorded MSRP with a source behind it. An MSRP is somebody’s assertion rather than a published dataset, and an appreciation measured against nothing is not a judgement this card will invent. The prices are listed below; the comparison is what is missing.
22 of this set’s 27 sealed products carry a price; none carries a recorded MSRP to measure appreciation against.
Set supply · not this card’sThe set's wholesale supply, not this card's — bulk lifts every raw copy in the set.Low15 lots listed on 2026-10-13 — higher than 50% of the set's own readings; 7056 packs on hand, higher than 2% over 29 readings in 90 days.15 lots · 7,056 packs · CA$13.89 CAD/pack
The Silver Tempest Booster Pack's most recent plotted day carries the provider’s daily guide value — no sale was recorded that day.
Indexed to each product’s own first stored day = 100. Silver Tempest Booster Pack in front, 21 behind · dashed = guide price, no sale that day.Each line is that product’s own price divided by its own first stored day and multiplied by 100, so every series starts on the dotted rule and the axis measures APPRECIATION rather than price. Dollars could not do this job here: a booster pack and a booster box differ by two orders of magnitude, and on a shared dollar axis the pack would sit flat on the floor of the plot however far it had actually travelled. The Silver Tempest Booster Pack is the base unit and is drawn in front; the rest are drawn behind it, and each one’s own numbers are in the table below. A dashed stretch is a run of days with no recorded sale, carrying the provider’s daily guide value — a quoted price, never a trade.Appreciation vs MSRP
ProductPriceMSRPvs MSRPEvery sealed product the catalog holds for this set, ordered by how standard a unit each is for tracking a set’s sealed price. PRICE is the product’s last stored day — a sale where one was recorded, the provider’s daily guide value where none was, and the row’s hover says which. MSRP is blank wherever no source is recorded against one, because an MSRP with nobody behind it is not a fact. VS MSRP is the price against that MSRP, as a percentage up to a doubling and as a multiple past it.Silver Tempest Single Pack Blister [Basculin]$14.67——Silver Tempest Single Pack Blister [Basculin]—Silver Tempest Single Pack Blister [Basculin]. Quoted at $14.67 on Oct 13, 2026 — a guide price, with no sale recorded that day. No MSRP is recorded against this product, so there is nothing to measure a premium from; the blank is a missing MSRP, not a missing price.Silver Tempest Single Pack Blister [Cranidos]$14.67——Silver Tempest Single Pack Blister [Cranidos]—Silver Tempest Single Pack Blister [Cranidos]. Quoted at $14.67 on Oct 13, 2026 — a guide price, with no sale recorded that day. No MSRP is recorded against this product, so there is nothing to measure a premium from; the blank is a missing MSRP, not a missing price.Silver Tempest Booster Pack$15.10——Silver Tempest Booster Pack—Silver Tempest Booster Pack. Quoted at $15.10 on Oct 13, 2026 — a guide price, with no sale recorded that day. No MSRP is recorded against this product, so there is nothing to measure a premium from; the blank is a missing MSRP, not a missing price.Silver Tempest Sleeved Booster Pack$18.33——Silver Tempest Sleeved Booster Pack—Silver Tempest Sleeved Booster Pack. Quoted at $18.33 on Oct 13, 2026 — a guide price, with no sale recorded that day. No MSRP is recorded against this product, so there is nothing to measure a premium from; the blank is a missing MSRP, not a missing price.Silver Tempest Premium Checklane Blister [Gallade]$22.99——Silver Tempest Premium Checklane Blister [Gallade]—Silver Tempest Premium Checklane Blister [Gallade]. Quoted at $22.99 on Oct 13, 2026 — a guide price, with no sale recorded that day. No MSRP is recorded against this product, so there is nothing to measure a premium from; the blank is a missing MSRP, not a missing price.Silver Tempest 3 Pack Blister [Manaphy]$49.51——Silver Tempest 3 Pack Blister [Manaphy]—Silver Tempest 3 Pack Blister [Manaphy]. Quoted at $49.51 on Oct 13, 2026 — a guide price, with no sale recorded that day. No MSRP is recorded against this product, so there is nothing to measure a premium from; the blank is a missing MSRP, not a missing price.Silver Tempest 3 Pack Blister [Togetic]$51.45——Silver Tempest 3 Pack Blister [Togetic]—Silver Tempest 3 Pack Blister [Togetic]. Quoted at $51.45 on Oct 13, 2026 — a guide price, with no sale recorded that day. No MSRP is recorded against this product, so there is nothing to measure a premium from; the blank is a missing MSRP, not a missing price.Silver Tempest Booster Pack Art Bundle [Set of 4]$56.69——Silver Tempest Booster Pack Art Bundle [Set of 4]—Silver Tempest Booster Pack Art Bundle [Set of 4]. Quoted at $56.69 on Oct 13, 2026 — a guide price, with no sale recorded that day. No MSRP is recorded against this product, so there is nothing to measure a premium from; the blank is a missing MSRP, not a missing price.
View all 27 sealed products →Method
Sealed product from Silver Tempest — the set this card was printed in. We track which set a product belongs to, not which cards are inside it. Appreciation is each product’s last stored price against its own recorded MSRP, in percent. The card’s call is the MEDIAN of those percentages across the products that have an MSRP — a median rather than a mean, so one outlier SKU cannot carry a whole set — and a product with no MSRP on file is left out of that aggregate rather than counted as zero; it still lists below with its price. MSRP is somebody’s assertion rather than a published dataset, so it is shown only where a source is recorded against it, and that source is on the row’s hover. The bands are a legend for the percentage the card prints beside them: within ±5% is at MSRP, which is this repo’s own fair-value tolerance; up to +25% is a slight premium; up to +100% a significant one; at or above +100% the price has at least doubled and the figure is stated as a multiple, because a four-digit percentage is not a number anybody reads. Each price line takes a day’s observed low/high sale range and plots its midpoint; on a day with no recorded sale it carries the provider’s own daily guide value instead — a quoted price, not a transaction — and those days are drawn dashed, never described as trades. Every line is indexed to its own first stored day = 100, so the chart compares appreciation between products rather than price levels: a booster pack and a booster box cannot honestly share a dollar axis.
Restock
Not readReadings exist, but none of them is a positive statement either way. UNKNOWN means we loaded the page and could not tell — never that the shelf was empty.
6 tracked SKUs, and not one of them could be read on the last pass.
Best Buy: not currently tracked.Walmart: not currently tracked.Target: 6 SKUs of Silver Tempest's sealed products tracked.GameStop: not currently tracked.
1 retailer tracked · Target · 3 not monitoredEvery retailer in the registry has a cell, including the ones that are not tracked — a shelf nobody is watching reads UNKNOWN, never 'sold out'. One store's empty shelf is not the whole market, and an untracked one is not evidence about the market at all.Set-level: Silver Tempest sealed products, not this cardRetail rows attach to SEALED products only — no big-box retailer sells single cards — so this whole card is the SET's shelf availability. It is not a statement about this card, and a card's own price is unaffected by it.Newest reading 28d ago · Sep 15, 09:07 UTCAvailability decays faster than any other number on the site, so this read is never cached and every row states its own age. An hour-old 'in stock' is a guess; the age is how you tell.Estimated print status · Likely out of printThere is no published source for whether a Pokémon product is still being printed — The Pokémon Company has never announced print cessation in any region, and the annual rotation announcement is about tournament legality, not production. So this is an inference, never a fact, and the verdict above comes from observed shelf readings instead. Estimated from: a tracked retailer's own shelf reading (direct); months since the set released (indirect — moves confidence only). Confidence 0.60. Shelf coverage is 1 retailer, so an empty shelf here is not an empty market.Store board
Sold outSilver Tempest Booster Bundle$27.9928d agoSilver Tempest Booster Bundle at Target, SKU 87852604 — Sold out at $27.99 pre-tax, before shipping. Read Sep 15, 08:46 UTC. A Silver Tempest sealed product, not this card.Not readSilver Tempest Booster Pack28d agoSilver Tempest Booster Pack at Target, SKU 92827420 — Not read, no shelf price shown. Read Sep 15, 09:07 UTC. A Silver Tempest sealed product, not this card.Not readSilver Tempest Booster Pack28d agoSilver Tempest Booster Pack at Target, SKU 92827425 — Not read, no shelf price shown. Read Sep 15, 09:07 UTC. A Silver Tempest sealed product, not this card.Not readSilver Tempest Booster Pack28d agoSilver Tempest Booster Pack at Target, SKU 92827423 — Not read, no shelf price shown. Read Sep 15, 09:07 UTC. A Silver Tempest sealed product, not this card.Sold outSilver Tempest Elite Trainer Box$39.9928d agoSilver Tempest Elite Trainer Box at Target, SKU 86933412 — Sold out at $39.99 pre-tax, before shipping. Read Sep 15, 08:46 UTC. A Silver Tempest sealed product, not this card.Not readSilver Tempest Sleeved Booster Pack28d agoSilver Tempest Sleeved Booster Pack at Target, SKU 92827424 — Not read, no shelf price shown. Read Sep 15, 09:07 UTC. A Silver Tempest sealed product, not this card.Method
Each row is one tracked retailer's most recent reading of one of the set's sealed products, at that retailer's own SKU. A restock is an observed OUT_OF_STOCK → IN_STOCK transition in that SKU's reading history, never a change we inferred from a price or a gap. Shelf prices are pre-tax and exclude shipping, so they are not delivered prices and are never fed into a floor.
Supply
Nothing listedNo active fixed-price ask carries a known delivered price right now. Anyone who wants one has to bid for it or wait.
0 units listed — 0.0d of stock at the 30-day pace of 0.0/day.
PopulationAll graders pooled371Every slab reported by every grader we hold a census for, as each of them states its own total. A share of what was submitted and kept — never the odds a copy grades 10.ACE14Slabs ACE itself reports for this card. Switching tabs changes the whole chart below to that grader's own grade curve.CGC179Slabs CGC itself reports for this card. Switching tabs changes the whole chart below to that grader's own grade curve.PSA178Slabs PSA itself reports for this card. Switching tabs changes the whole chart below to that grader's own grade curve.
1801010 — 180 slabs, 48.5% of the 371 charted hereACE 2 · CGC 94 (Gem Mint 10 · Pristine 10) · PSA 84139.59.5 — 13 slabs, 3.5% of the 371 charted hereCGC 1313099 — 130 slabs, 35.0% of the 371 charted hereACE 10 · CGC 49 · PSA 71148.58.5 — 14 slabs, 3.8% of the 371 charted hereCGC 142588 — 25 slabs, 6.7% of the 371 charted hereACE 2 · CGC 2 · PSA 2127.57.5 — 2 slabs, 0.5% of the 371 charted hereCGC 2277 — 2 slabs, 0.5% of the 371 charted herePSA 216.56.5 — 1 slabs, 0.3% of the 371 charted hereCGC 1166 — 1 slabs, 0.3% of the 371 charted hereCGC 115.55.5 — 1 slabs, 0.3% of the 371 charted hereCGC 12AuthAuth — 2 slabs, 0.5% of the 371 charted hereCGC 2
Listed0 unitsActive fixed-price asks with a known delivered price. Auctions are a separate market and never enter this count.Sold · 30d · 0.0/day1 unitsUnits over the last 30 days, on TCGplayer — the venue’s own reported sold quantity, not a print. Newest reading 2026-05-10. Some days come from spreading a multi-day provider bucket across the days it covered.Graded · ACE 14 · CGC 179 · PSA 178371 slabsEvery slab reported by every grader we hold a census for, pooled. A share of what was submitted and kept — not the odds your copy grades 10.
Slab premium
Strong slab premiumThe dearest priced rung is PSA 10 at $50.00, 79.4× the $0.63 raw reference (modelled guide price).
A PSA 10 is worth $50.00 — 79.4× the $0.63 raw modelled guide price.
Dearest slab per grading company
PSA 10$50.0079.4×PSA 10 — $50.00, 79.4× raw$74.99 · EBAY · 2026-10-08 · $50.00 · EBAY · 2026-09-05 · $42.00 · EBAY · 2026-07-16CGC 9.5$17.00guideThe provider’s MODELLED value for this grade — not a sale and not even an offer. Often extrapolated from the grades that did sell.27.0×CGC 9.5 — $17.00, 27.0× rawRaw$0.63guideThe provider’s MODELLED value for this grade — not a sale and not even an offer. Often extrapolated from the grades that did sell.1.0×Raw — $0.63, 1.0× rawThe venue’s published daily market guide, which the venue itself declares MODELLED. Nothing is confirmed to have traded at it, no copy is listed at it, and it is not our estimate — it is theirs. Every multiple on this ladder is taken against it.PSA 10 is the dearest slab on the board at $50.00; the next priced grader is CGC 9.5 at $17.00.
One rung down, a PSA 9 is $15.26 — 24.2× raw.
ACE (14 slabs) has no priced comp at any grade — nothing has been paid for one we can see.
Grading ROI
Don't gradePSA: -$58.16 expected after $84.99 of fees — observed gem share 47% of n=178.
Best on PSA: -$58.16 expected after $84.99 of fees — observed gem share 47% of n=178.
| VendorVendorThe grading company, one row each. Rows are the graders we hold both a fee schedule and a population census for — a grader we cannot price is left out rather than estimated. | FeeFeeThe all-in submission cost per card at this grader: grading tier plus shipping both ways and insurance, as published. A † marks a fee we could not read from a published schedule and had to carry from a prior reading. Lower is better. | P(10)P(10)The share of this card’s submissions to this grader that came back a 10, from its own population census. It is what WAS submitted and kept, not the odds your particular copy grades — a card people only submit when it looks perfect reads high here for that reason alone. | 10 price10 priceWhat a 10 from this grader actually sells for. The superscript says what kind of evidence that is — a sale, an unsold listing, or the provider’s own modelled guide. | ROI(10)ROI(10)Return if the card grades a 10 and sells at that price: (10 price − raw price − fee) over what you put in. The BEST case, before any probability is applied. Higher is better. | Risk-wtdRisk-wtdThe same return weighted by the odds of each grade, not just the 10 — the number to compare graders on, because a high P(10) at a high fee can lose to a lower one. A leading ≈ means the full grade distribution was unavailable and a coarser method stood in. Higher is better. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACE | $24.39ACE Basic — the cheapest tier accepting single-card submissions, read 2026-10-06. £18.00 converted at GBP/USD 1.355 (2026-09-01) — a conversion, not a quoted USD price. Cheaper tiers you cannot use today: Core $16.26, Value $20.33. | 14.3%95% interval 4.0%–39.9% on n=14. A share of what was submitted and kept, not submission odds. | —No 10 price is on file for ACE, so no return can be computed for it — an absence, never a zero. | —Return if the card grades a 10 and sells at that price: (10 price − raw price − fee) over what you put in. The BEST case, before any probability is applied. Higher is better. | —Risk-weighted ROI withheld: no ACE price at grade 10 at any basis. |
| CGC | $20.00CGC Economy — the cheapest tier accepting single-card submissions, read 2026-10-06. Cheaper tiers you cannot use today: Bulk $17.00. | 52.5%95% interval 45.2%–59.7% on n=179. A share of what was submitted and kept, not submission odds. | —No 10 price is on file for CGC, so no return can be computed for it — an absence, never a zero. | —Return if the card grades a 10 and sells at that price: (10 price − raw price − fee) over what you put in. The BEST case, before any probability is applied. Higher is better. | —Risk-weighted ROI withheld: no CGC price at grade 10 at any basis. |
| PSA | $59.99PSA Standard — the cheapest tier accepting single-card submissions, read 2026-10-06. Cheaper tiers you cannot use today: Value Bulk $24.99, Value $32.99. | 47.2%95% interval 40.0%–54.5% on n=178. A share of what was submitted and kept, not submission odds. | $50.00What a 10 from this grader actually sells for. The superscript says what kind of evidence that is — a sale, an unsold listing, or the provider’s own modelled guide. | -49%-$42.24 on a $85.62 cost basis. | -69%Risk-weighted across all 4 PSA rungs; 100% of the distribution carried its own price. |
| SGC | $79.00†No published SGC fee verified — this is the generic fallback, not SGC's price. | —The share of this card’s submissions to this grader that came back a 10, from its own population census. It is what WAS submitted and kept, not the odds your particular copy grades — a card people only submit when it looks perfect reads high here for that reason alone. | —No 10 price is on file for SGC, so no return can be computed for it — an absence, never a zero. | —Return if the card grades a 10 and sells at that price: (10 price − raw price − fee) over what you put in. The BEST case, before any probability is applied. Higher is better. | —Risk-weighted ROI withheld: no SGC population total, so P(10) has no honest denominator. Fee is the generic $79.00 fallback — SGC's own published price is not in the fee table. |
| TAG | $59.95TAG Standard — the cheapest tier accepting single-card submissions, read 2026-10-06. Cheaper tiers you cannot use today: Basic $22.00. | —The share of this card’s submissions to this grader that came back a 10, from its own population census. It is what WAS submitted and kept, not the odds your particular copy grades — a card people only submit when it looks perfect reads high here for that reason alone. | —No 10 price is on file for TAG, so no return can be computed for it — an absence, never a zero. | —Return if the card grades a 10 and sells at that price: (10 price − raw price − fee) over what you put in. The BEST case, before any probability is applied. Higher is better. | —Risk-weighted ROI withheld: no TAG population total, so P(10) has no honest denominator. |
Pre-grade this card →Photograph your own copy front and back for centering, wear and the odds of each grade. An estimate, not a grade.
$0.63 raw (modelled guide price) + $59.99 PSA Standard + $25.00 ship/ins = $85.62 · less 13.25% sale fee · 45d lockup
Share of what was submitted and kept — not the odds your copy grades 10.
ScarcityExtremely scarceA named card at this rarity takes 1 in 701 packs on average, which is the rarest fifth of every card we hold pack odds for. The bands are the card-weighted quintiles of that population, not thresholds we picked.
1 in 701 packs for one copy of this card
Half of all openers get one within 486 packs
Secret Rare1 in 909Secret Rare — 20 cards at this rarity, so one NAMED Secret Rare is 1 in 909 packs.Ultra Rare1 in 701Ultra Rare — 26 cards at this rarity, so one NAMED Ultra Rare is 1 in 701 packs.Holo Rare VSTAR~1 in 166Holo Rare VSTAR — 6 cards at this rarity, so one NAMED Holo Rare VSTAR is 1 in 166 packs, estimated from sets of the same era.Holo Rare VMAX~1 in 166Holo Rare VMAX — 1 card at this rarity, so one NAMED Holo Rare VMAX is 1 in 166 packs, estimated from sets of the same era.Holo Rare V1 in 130Holo Rare V — 15 cards at this rarity, so one NAMED Holo Rare V is 1 in 130 packs.Radiant Rare1 in 66Radiant Rare — 3 cards at this rarity, so one NAMED Radiant Rare is 1 in 66 packs.Hit tiers in Silver Tempest, hardest at the top. Log scale.
Method
P(this card, per pack) = the published odds of its RARITY appearing, split evenly across the cards printed at that rarity in the set; the figure shown is 1/p, the mean number of packs to one copy. The ladder plots every tier of the set on a logarithmic scale, because a set spans two orders of magnitude between its commonest hit and its hardest and a linear scale would pin all but one of them to the same end.
The Pokémon Company has never published physical booster odds in any region — the only official drop-rate page covers the digital TCG Live packs and lists no probabilities at all. This figure is a hand-entered citation of a published pack-opening study of this set.
Print scarcity
Moderately printedAgainst every card we can read, this one's implied print run lands in the moderately printed third. It is an ORDER, not a count — the model recovers no print figure and does not try to. Read from Silver Tempest's pooled print scale and this card's own pull rate.
Against every card we can read, this one's implied print run lands in the moderately printed third. It is an ORDER, not a count — the model recovers no print figure and does not try to. Read from Silver Tempest's pooled print scale and this card's own pull rate.
LightModerateHeavy
Model inputs
Graded copies371 copiesGraded copies371 copiesSlabs on record across PSA, CGC and ACE, summed over every grade. The model’s raw input — it is NOT the print run, because a card people grade often will show a large population off a small press run. Ungraded and sealed copies are invisible to it.Packs per copy1 in 701Packs per copy1 in 701How many packs it takes to see one named copy of this card — the same figure SCARCITY leads with. It is what converts a set-wide print scale into this card’s own.Set read from66 cardsSet read from66 cardsEvery card in the set with a price, a population and a pull rate gives an independent estimate of how many packs of the set exist. They are pooled by median, so one mis-joined card cannot move the answer.Method
Graded population is print run × how often anyone bothers grading it, and the second factor moves with VALUE — so population is divided by price^0.606, the elasticity fitted across 3,826 cards that carry a population, a price and a pull rate at once. That normalised count is turned into a SET pack scale using the card’s pull rate (every card in a set is an independent read on how many packs exist, pooled by median), then brought back down to this card by its own pull rate. The band is a tertile of the result across every card that clears the gates.
Nobody has ever published a Pokémon print run, and this does not recover one — it is an ORDER, not a count. It reads surviving graded supply across PSA, CGC and ACE, so ungraded and sealed stock are invisible to it. What it is checked against: the model puts Black & White at the bottom of the catalog and modern Scarlet & Violet at the top, which is where the smallest and largest print runs actually are.
Card
Number178/195
RarityUltra Rare
Illustratortakuyoa
Release dateNov 11, 2022
Card typePOKEMON
Pokédex entryMawile #303
FinishesHolo
LanguagesEN
Set symbol
Competitive playNot Standard-legalPublished as not legal in Standard, and in none of the 22,383 Standard decklists in the last 30 days. Rotated out of Standard on April 11, 2025.
Not legal in Standard, and in none of the 22,383 Standard decklists across 338 events, last 30 days.
Rotation runwayRotated April 11, 2025Mark F left Standard on that date. Standard rotation dates are curated by hand from official announcements; a mark with no announced date carries none rather than a guess.30d sold0 unitsUnits of THIS printing sold in the 30 days ending October 13, 2026, against the 30 days before that (0). Demand at a table and demand in the market are different measurements; this is the second one.Meta vs priceNot enough history (0 weeks)Spearman rank correlation of weekly share against weekly median price over the trailing 26 weeks, on the weeks carrying both. Printed only at 8 weeks or more; below that the count is stated instead of a coefficient off a handful of readings.
Mark F left Standard on April 11, 2025.
94.5% of card lines in these decklists matched a card in our catalog; an unmatched line is never counted. Online events only, not Regionals or Worlds. Tournament results →
Card text
HP200
TypesPsychic
StageBasic
SuffixV
AttacksP Pouty Slap · 30Cost: PsychicFlip a coin. If heads, discard an Energy from your opponent's Active Pokémon.CCC Chomp Down · 100Cost: Colorless · Colorless · ColorlessDiscard a random card from your opponent's hand.
WeaknessMetal ×2
Retreat1
Regulation markF
LegalStandard not legal · Expanded legal
Why It's Moving
- What changedWhat changedThe observable that moved, stated before any reason for it — the fact the rest of this panel has to account for.
- Modelled guide price moved +0.0% over the trailing 7 days and +0.0% over 30 days, now at $0.63. Active TCGplayer listings fell 0% over the same 7 days to 0.
- Primary explanationPrimary explanationThe reading the evidence best supports. It is an explanation, never a forecast, and it is only as good as the Evidence row two lines down.
- Primary read: Liquidity scored 0/100 (composite weight 31%). — the largest single contributor to the current ILLIQUID_UNKNOWN regime read.
- AlternativeAlternativeA competing explanation the SAME evidence would also support. It is printed even when the primary looks strong: an explanation with no stated alternative is a story, not an analysis.
- Alternative explanation: Data quality scored 17/100 (composite weight 19%).. With 0 distinct sellers/observations in the trailing window, either read is defensible — this is not a high-conviction single-cause move.
- EvidenceEvidenceThe specific observations the explanation rests on. If this row is thin, treat the explanation as thin — it is the only thing holding it up.
- Evidence: item-basis daily bars, TCGplayer active listings, absorption read ("Insufficient data: 0 inventory observation(s) in the trailing 30d window (need >= 4).").
- ConfidenceConfidenceHow much weight to put on the primary explanation, given how much of the evidence actually resolved. It qualifies the row above; it never adds to it.
- Confidence: 90% (floor-confidence 15/100), based on 205 days of observations.
- What would disprove itWhat would disprove itThe observation that would break the primary explanation. It is what makes the reading falsifiable rather than unfalsifiable — and it is the thing to watch for next.
- This read would be wrong if active listings rebound above 0 while sold median keeps falling.
Undervalued Opportunities
Loading opportunities…
Provenance
| EvidenceEvidenceWhat kind of fact this row is. A completed sale, a live ask and a calculated guide price are three different weights of evidence about the same number, and this column is the difference between them. | ObservedObservedThe day the fact was read — not the day the underlying event happened, and not today. An old date is an old reading. | AgeAgeHow long ago this row was read, as of the moment the page was computed. | ConfidenceConfidenceHow much weight this row carries where it feeds a model, from the resolver that matched it. Lower means a looser match or a thinner source, and a low-confidence row is reweighted rather than dropped. | ModelledModelledYes = a CALCULATED value (a guide price, an estimate); No = something actually observed (a sale, a listing, a census count). A modelled row is evidence about a model, not about the market. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CatalogCard identity: set, number, rarity, finish, release date. It dates from the printing itself, so an old reading here is expected and is not staleness. | Nov 11, 2022 | 3.9y | 98% | No |
| Guide priceA calculated market guide — a model of where the product is trading. Never a confirmed sale, and always marked Modelled. | Oct 13, 2026 | 1d | 60% | Yes |
| Population censusA grader's published count of the copies it has slabbed at each grade. A record of what was submitted and kept, never the odds a copy grades. | Oct 13, 2026 | 5h | 60% | No |
Raw · Holo · DamagedWhat every row above was gathered for — one printing, in this one finish and condition or grade. Change either switcher in the header and you are reading a different one; the page's own URL is the address of exactly this one.pq-quant-2026.10.0The version of the scoring and analytics formulas that produced everything on this page. Two figures computed under different versions are not comparable, which is why the version is stated rather than assumed.
Related Printings
Other printings of Mawile V
- Silver Tempest #070/195· Holo Rare V· $0.71
- Silver Tempest Trainer Gallery #TG17/TG30· Holo Rare V· $12.57
Mawile V: common questions
How much is Mawile V worth?
$0.63, the modelled guide price, as of October 13, 2026.
Is Mawile V rare?
Its printed rarity is Ultra Rare.
What set is Mawile V from?
Mawile V (#178/195) is from Silver Tempest, released November 11, 2022.
How many Mawile V have been graded?
371 certified slabs are on file across every grading company we track, as of October 14, 2026.
What is the PSA 10 premium on Mawile V?
A PSA 10 trades at about 79.4x the raw price, $50.00 against $0.63 raw, as of October 13, 2026.