The vendor's catalog photograph of 151 Collection Alakazam ex Case. It identifies the product; it is not evidence of condition, of what is inside, or of any price on this page.guide · modelled
$629.00, the venue's modelled guide price, not a confirmed sale, as of October 13, 2026.
151 Collection Alakazam ex Case is from 151.
We don't currently track retail stock for 151 Collection Alakazam ex Case, which is not the same as it being sold out.
as of Sep 24, 2026 · UTC
151 Collection Alakazam ex Case · 1DMkt$629.000.0%guide priceitem price
Vol — sold·0 prints·1 obssingle obs — no range
relative value thesis · 30-180d horizon · 59% confidence on 35/100 data quality
Scenarios
ILLIQUID_UNKNOWN persists near current levels (non-probabilistic range -- data quality too thin to assign probabilities).rangeBASE · rangeILLIQUID_UNKNOWN persists near current levels (non-probabilistic range -- data quality too thin to assign probabilities).Evidence corroborates faster than expected, accelerating the thesis (non-probabilistic range).rangeBULL · rangeEvidence corroborates faster than expected, accelerating the thesis (non-probabilistic range).Evidence reverses sooner than expected, invalidating the thesis (non-probabilistic range).rangeBEAR · rangeEvidence reverses sooner than expected, invalidating the thesis (non-probabilistic range).Catalysts
Risks
Invalidation
The strongest case against this thesis: Data quality scored 35/100 (composite weight 39%).
Model pq-quant-2026.10.0, as of 2026-10-13.
Research classification generated from observable market data with stated confidence and assumptions. Not personalized financial advice.
No published pack count for this product, so its price cannot be put on a per-pack footing.
The 10th dearest of the 32 priced sealed products in 151.
Withheld — 7 of the 9 inputs have no sealed evidence, so there is nothing honest to blend.
7 inputs have no sealed evidence and were reweighted away: price trend, supply tightness, absorption, auction demand, liquidity, grading reflexivity, reprint / supply risk.
On file: 6 asks · 125 daily guide points · 116 stock readings.
| EvidenceEvidenceWhat kind of fact this row is. A completed sale, a live ask and a calculated guide price are three different weights of evidence about the same number, and this column is the difference between them. | ObservedObservedThe day the fact was read — not the day the underlying event happened, and not today. An old date is an old reading. | AgeAgeHow long ago this row was read, as of the moment the page was computed. | ConfidenceConfidenceHow much weight this row carries where it feeds a model, from the resolver that matched it. Lower means a looser match or a thinner source, and a low-confidence row is reweighted rather than dropped. | ModelledModelledYes = a CALCULATED value (a guide price, an estimate); No = something actually observed (a sale, a listing, a census count). A modelled row is evidence about a model, not about the market. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Live askA copy offered for sale right now. An ask is what a seller wants, not what anyone paid — it bounds the price from above until it clears. | Oct 13, 2026 | 5h | 90% | No |
| Price statisticAn observed figure computed over several rows rather than one print — a delivered floor, a published median over a window. | Oct 13, 2026 | 5h | 90% | No |
| Guide priceA calculated market guide — a model of where the product is trading. Never a confirmed sale, and always marked Modelled. | Sep 24, 2026 | 20d | 90% | Yes |
| Inventory countHow many copies and listings stand on the book. What depth, supply and absorption are measured against. | Oct 13, 2026 | 5h | 70% | No |
Every price is that product’s newest stored daily bar, picked by the same precedence the chart above uses — a real observed sale beats a modelled guide, and the guide stands in only on days with no sale. Per-pack divides by the PUBLISHED pack count and is withheld wherever that count is not on file, because a guessed denominator makes a fabricated price. Products the set has but we cannot price keep their row, with a dash.
Scored over a 30-day window on a sample of 9, formula pq-quant-2026.10.0. The packet reweighted 7 missing inputs away and applied a 35% confidence penalty for them: priceTrend, supplyTightness, absorption, auctionDemand, liquidity, gradingReflexivity, reprintSupplyRisk.
No retailer is tracked for this product yet, which is not the same as it being sold out.
No wholesale listings seen for this product as of the last catalogue read on 2026-10-13.
No wholesale listings seen for this product as of the last catalogue read on 2026-10-13.
A wholesale ask is a distributor’s price for a whole lot — freight, minimums and any trade terms sit behind it — and is not a price a single box trades at. Links go to the distributor’s own page; nothing here is an affiliate link. Per-pack figures divide the lot price by the pack count the distributor published, never by a guessed one.
20 lots listed on 2026-10-13 — higher than 55% of the set's own readings over 29 readings in 90 days.
Thin on the wholesale shelf: fresh-pack supply is not what is pressuring 151's raw NM singles right now.
4 distributors’ public catalogues are a proxy for supply, not the print run.