Paldean Wooper — 102/094Raw · Holo · Near MintEvery price, print, listing and score on this page belongs to this one printing in this one condition or grade — switch either dropdown and you are looking at a different one.
The condition or grade being priced. Each one is a separate instrument that trades at its own price, so choosing one replaces every figure on the page. “All conditions” and “All grades” are a union of the siblings — their tape, listings and volume are combined, with one sibling named as the reference for price and analytics.
▁Floor FormingFloor FormingPrice is stabilising near a drawdown low, volatility is cooling and depth has stopped thinning. A floor being tested — not yet one that has held.▾UndervaluedUndervaluedThe market price sits below the blended fair-value band — not merely below its midpoint. The blend and its four components are on the FAIR VALUE card; the wider the band, the weaker this call.•Neutral FlowNeutral FlowNet flow and the top-decile-notional prints disagree, or net flow is flat. The signal needs both to point the same way, so nothing is called.1D-4.1%1D return-4.1%Change in the headline market price against the close 1 observed bar back. Bars exist only for days this card actually traded, so the span can be longer than the label's calendar reading.7D+0.3%7D return+0.3%Change in the headline market price against the close 7 observed bars back. Bars exist only for days this card actually traded, so the span can be longer than the label's calendar reading.30D+1.0%30D return+1.0%Change in the headline market price against the close 30 observed bars back. Bars exist only for days this card actually traded, so the span can be longer than the label's calendar reading.As of 11:37ZAs of 11:37ZThe market price, its 1D/7D/30D returns, the order book, the For Sale counts and today’s price bar as they stood when this page was built. The page itself is served from a shared cache, so this stamp — not the moment you loaded it — is how old these numbers are. Your browser re-reads them a moment after the page arrives and this line follows.
Mkt Price
$4.01item▼-4.1%
Last $4.08 · $5.08 delivered · 3h
Mkt Price$4.01 itemMedian item price of the day’s confirmed prints — item basis, not delivered. It is the basis TCGplayer’s own market guide and every wall tile are quoted on; the chart’s DELIVERED toggle re-quotes the same prints with their required shipping in. Last confirmed fixed-price sale: $4.08 at 2026-10-13T08:23:00.147Z. Delivered $5.08 with shipping. One trade, not a statistic — the figure above it is the day's median.
Fair Value
$4.33delivered
≈$4.21 item · Band $4.09–$4.57
Fair Value$4.33 deliveredBand is ±5.4% of the point estimate: 3 of 4 components available (excluded: auction clearing — 15% of weight reweighted away, 8% confidence penalty), on 505 observation(s) in the trailing 30d. Thin samples and missing components widen the band 1.15x over the raw component spread. Prints are weighted with a 3d half-life; it is clearing at $4.39 delivered over the last 48h (28.1 effective units). A weighted blend of independent estimates, quoted DELIVERED — item plus required shipping — where Mkt Price beside it may be item basis. Read the band, not the point: its width is the model's own confidence. On the ITEM basis TCGplayer’s guide is quoted on, that is about $4.21 — this card’s own prints carry a median delivered-minus-item wedge of $0.12, measured day by day, never an assumed postage rate. Clears at $4.39 delivered · last 48h. The delivered, time-decayed VWAP of confirmed prints over the last 48h, 28.1 effective units behind it. The blended fair value is read against it — a delivered ask is not called undervalued until it sits below what the card actually clears for.
Liquidity
99/100
Good liquidity
Liquidity99 /100How easily a position clears, scored 0–100. Four readings, equally weighted, each independently nullable: trade rate (the chance it trades today, from 30d units sold), trade breadth (how many of the last 30 days carried a trade), queue clearance (30d units sold against the units on the board) and seller dispersion (how many different people are selling it). A reading nobody can measure is absent and the rest reweight — never filled in with a zero.
30D Vol
1,055units▼-2.5%
units · vs prior 30d
30D Vol1,055 units1055 units over the last 30 days, on TCGplayer and eBay. Newest reading Oct 13, 2026. Against 1082 in the 30 days before.
For Sale
69units
53 sellers
For Sale69 unitsEvery active fixed-price ask with a known delivered price. Auctions are a separate market and are never counted here.
Graded Pop
8,626▲+7.6%
across 3 graders
Graded Pop8,626Every slab reported by every grader we hold a census for, pooled. A share of what was submitted and kept — not the odds a copy grades 10.
No live auction bids — this market has no resting bid book.
Cross-Market BasisAsks are live fixed-price listings at delivered prices (item + required shipping). No bid side exists: this market has no resting bid book. There are no live auction bids and no published buylist for this instrument, so the bid side is empty rather than synthesized from asks, price history or a spread assumption.——
AskSize
Ask sideLive fixed-price listings, priced DELIVERED — item plus required shipping. Cheapest first; a listing whose shipping is unknown has no delivered price and is excluded rather than guessed at.
$3.861
$3.86 · 1 unit1 cum.Ask size at this price, and the running total through it from the cheapest ask — 1 unit are buyable at or under $3.86 delivered. The shaded staircase behind the row IS that running total.
$3.992
$3.99 · 2 units3 cum.Ask size at this price, and the running total through it from the cheapest ask — 3 units are buyable at or under $3.99 delivered. The shaded staircase behind the row IS that running total.
$4.142
$4.14 · 2 units5 cum.Ask size at this price, and the running total through it from the cheapest ask — 5 units are buyable at or under $4.14 delivered. The shaded staircase behind the row IS that running total.
Ask depth$369.90Ask depth$369.90Every live fixed-price ask summed at its DELIVERED price — what clearing the whole visible book would cost. There is no bid side to set it against: no auction has a bid on it and no buylist quotes this instrument, and an absent side is never drawn as a zero.
One candle per UTC day — the finest grain this market recordsOne candle per ISO week (Mon–Sun), rolled up from the daily barsOne candle per calendar month, rolled up from the daily barsitem — the sale price alone, excluding shipping. This is the basis TCGplayer’s own market guide is published on, and the basis every wall tile, screener row and watchlist quote uses, so it is what the headline compares against.delivered — item + required shipping, the basis every alarm, floor and fair value uses. A print whose shipping the venue never stated has no delivered price and is excluded from the bar rather than counted at its item price; a day with no priced print falls back to the guide, which is an item price and says so.
How each period is drawn. Candles and bars show the full observed open/high/low/close; line and area show the close alone. The DATA does not change with the mark.
Price scale (linear, log or percent), auto-scaling, and the note on exactly how these bars were built.
Expand the chart to the whole viewport. Same bars and same drawings — only the room they get changes.
Cursor — chart crosshair, pan and zoomTrend line — two pointsHorizontal line — one click, priced at the axisRay — two points, extended forwardZone — two cornersFibonacci retracement — anchor the move, start to endNote — click, then typeMeasure — drag for change, percent and barsMagnet — snap each new anchor to the nearest bar's open, high, low or close, so a line lands on an observation rather than between two of them.Nothing to clear — there are no drawings on this card.DRW
Fair valueUNDERVALUEDThe cheapest delivered ask sits more than 5% below the blended fair-value estimate (FAIR_VALUE_AT_FAIR_TOLERANCE_PCT).
Fair value $4.33 delivered, about $4.21 on the item basis; the cheapest delivered ask is 10.8% below it$4.33delivered-10.8%The cheapest delivered ask ($3.86) against the blended fair-value estimate.top 24%top 24% of 6,176 tracked on FV gap · Ranked against every tracked card as of Oct 12, 2026; the number above is live.
Clears at $4.39 delivered · last 48h
The delivered, time-decayed VWAP of confirmed prints over the last 48h, 28.1 effective units behind it. The blended fair value is read against it — a delivered ask is not called undervalued until it sits below what the card actually clears for.
Chase
•Buy the singleThe average cost of opening packs until this card appears is more than the single costs delivered, by more than the estimate’s own uncertainty. Buying is the cheaper route and it is a price you pay once.
$1,298 of packs on average to pull it, against a $3.86 single — your spend passes the single at pack 1.
RIPThe left half is where opening packs costs LESS than buying a copy. This end is the mirror of the other one: a single that costs 119× what the whole expected chase does. The scale is logarithmic, so the two ends sit the same distance from parity.
Supply
▲Tight supply69 listed units against a 35.2/day pace is 2.0 days of stock. Under 7d reads tight, 30d or more reads heavy.
69 units listed across 53 sellers — 2.0d of stock at the 30-day pace of 35.2/day.
PopulationAll graders pooled8,626Every slab reported by every grader we hold a census for, as each of them states its own total. A share of what was submitted and kept — never the odds a copy grades 10. The bars below sum to 8,630, not 8,626: a grader can report a pooled rung and its qualified variants separately, so the stated total is the authority and the bars are what is chartable.ACE812Slabs ACE itself reports for this card. Switching tabs changes the whole chart below to that grader's own grade curve.CGC1,250Slabs CGC itself reports for this card. Switching tabs changes the whole chart below to that grader's own grade curve.PSA6,564Slabs PSA itself reports for this card. Switching tabs changes the whole chart below to that grader's own grade curve. The bars below sum to 6,568, not 6,564: a grader can report a pooled rung and its qualified variants separately, so the stated total is the authority and the bars are what is chartable.
1010 — 4,877 slabs, 56.5% of the 8,630 charted hereACE 702 · CGC 738 (Gem Mint 10 · Pristine 10) · PSA 3,4379.59.5 — 85 slabs, 1.0% of the 8,630 charted hereCGC 8599 — 2,758 slabs, 32.0% of the 8,630 charted hereACE 81 · CGC 282 · PSA 2,3958.58.5 — 79 slabs, 0.9% of the 8,630 charted hereCGC 76 · PSA 388 — 639 slabs, 7.4% of the 8,630 charted hereACE 24 · CGC 36 · PSA 5797.57.5 — 19 slabs, 0.2% of the 8,630 charted hereCGC 18 · PSA 177 — 104 slabs, 1.2% of the 8,630 charted hereACE 2 · CGC 3 · PSA 996.56.5 — 1 slabs, 0.0% of the 8,630 charted hereCGC 166 — 42 slabs, 0.5% of the 8,630 charted hereACE 1 · CGC 2 · PSA 395.55.5 — 1 slabs, 0.0% of the 8,630 charted hereCGC 155 — 11 slabs, 0.1% of the 8,630 charted hereACE 1 · PSA 1044 — 6 slabs, 0.1% of the 8,630 charted hereCGC 1 · PSA 5AuthAuth — 8 slabs, 0.1% of the 8,630 charted hereACE 1 · CGC 7
Listed · 53 sellers · $369.9069 unitsActive fixed-price asks with a known delivered price. Auctions are a separate market and never enter this count.Sold · 30d · 35.2/day1,055 unitsUnits over the last 30 days, on TCGplayer and eBay, against 1,082 in the 30 days before. Newest reading 2026-10-13.Graded · ACE 812 · CGC 1,250 · PSA 6,5648,626 slabsEvery slab reported by every grader we hold a census for, pooled. A share of what was submitted and kept — not the odds your copy grades 10.
ScarcityRoutineA named card at this rarity takes 1 in 119 packs on average, which is the commonest fifth of every card we hold pack odds for. The bands are the card-weighted quintiles of that population, not thresholds we picked.
1 in 119 packs for one copy of this card1 in 119packs
Half of all openers get one within 82 packs
4th of 5 hit tiers in Phantasmal FlamesEvery tier on this ladder comes out of the same pack under the same study, so the position is a like-for-like comparison. It ranks NAMED cards, not tiers: a 12-card tier and a 1-card tier with the same slot odds are not the same difficulty.
Mega Hyper Rare1 in 1,250Mega Hyper Rare — 1 card at this rarity, so one NAMED Mega Hyper Rare is 1 in 1,250 packs.
Competitive play—Legal, unplayedStandard-legal, and in none of the 22,383 Standard decklists in the last 30 days.
Standard-legal, but in none of the 22,383 Standard decklists across 338 events, last 30 days.
Player floor$0.14The cheapest currently-priced Standard-legal print of this card: Paldean Wooper, Journey Together. What it costs to put the card in a deck, which is not the same question as what THIS print is worth.Premium over floor29×This printing's headline price ($4.01) against the player floor ($0.14). What a player pays for THIS art rather than for the cheapest legal copy of the same card.
Why It's Moving
What changedWhat changedThe observable that moved, stated before any reason for it — the fact the rest of this panel has to account for.
Sold median moved +0.3% over the trailing 7 days and +1.0% over 30 days, last printing at $4.01. Active TCGplayer listings fell 0% over the same 7 days to 0.
Primary explanationPrimary explanationThe reading the evidence best supports. It is an explanation, never a forecast, and it is only as good as the Evidence row two lines down.
Primary read: Liquidity scored 99/100 (composite weight 21%). — the largest single contributor to the current FLOOR_FORMING regime read.
AlternativeAlternativeA competing explanation the SAME evidence would also support. It is printed even when the primary looks strong: an explanation with no stated alternative is a story, not an analysis.
Alternative explanation: Relative strength scored 22/100 (composite weight 21%).. With 53 distinct sellers/observations in the trailing window, either read is defensible — this is not a high-conviction single-cause move.
EvidenceEvidenceWhat kind of fact this row is. A completed sale, a live ask and a calculated guide price are three different weights of evidence about the same number, and this column is the difference between them.
ObservedObservedThe day the fact was read — not the day the underlying event happened, and not today. An old date is an old reading.
AgeAgeHow long ago this row was read, as of the moment the page was computed.
ConfidenceConfidenceHow much weight this row carries where it feeds a model, from the resolver that matched it. Lower means a looser match or a thinner source, and a low-confidence row is reweighted rather than dropped.
ModelledModelledYes = a CALCULATED value (a guide price, an estimate); No = something actually observed (a sale, a listing, a census count). A modelled row is evidence about a model, not about the market.
$3.86Market price$3.86What the market is actually asking right now — the cheapest delivered price, or the newest confirmed print when no ladder exists. The card’s verdict is where this line falls against the band.$4.33Fair value$4.33The blend’s point estimate — the weighted centre of the four component reads listed below. It is the middle of a band, not a target: read the band’s width before the point.
$4.09The bottom of the stated fair-value band — the cheap end of the blend, not a floor and not a support level. A wider band is the model saying it is less sure, so the two ends are more informative together than the point between them.$4.57The top of the stated fair-value band — the rich end of the blend, not a ceiling and not a target. A wider band is the model saying it is less sure, so the two ends are more informative together than the point between them.
Sales VWAP$4.4847%Sales VWAP$4.48Time-decayed, unit-weighted mean delivered price of confirmed prints — the last 48h dominate.Weight 47% of the blend, after reweighting away the inputs with no evidence.Depth clearing$4.0729%Depth clearing$4.07VWAP of the cheapest tranche of the live delivered-ask ladder — the price at which real fixed-price supply actually clears.Weight 29% of the blend, after reweighting away the inputs with no evidence.Trend anchor$4.3624%Trend anchor$4.36Last non-null trend value (SMA) of the price series, in delivered terms.Weight 24% of the blend, after reweighting away the inputs with no evidence.Auction clearingN/A—Auction clearingN/AUnavailable in the trailing 30d window — reweighted away, not defaulted.No evidence for this input, so it carries no weight — the blend is the other components, reweighted.
≈$4.21 item basis · ±5.5% band · 3 of 4 inputs · 505 obs / 30dBand is ±5.4% of the point estimate: 3 of 4 components available (excluded: auction clearing — 15% of weight reweighted away, 8% confidence penalty), on 505 observation(s) in the trailing 30d. Thin samples and missing components widen the band 1.15x over the raw component spread. Prints are weighted with a 3d half-life; it is clearing at $4.39 delivered over the last 48h (28.1 effective units).
›10.8% under fair — buy at $3.86 delivered.
Market safety
▼Low riskOrdinary trading absorbs a spike here inside a week — less than 7 days of this card's own turnover — and taking control needs more than one ordinary order.
$369.90 clears the cheap side — 2.3 days of turnover (0.08 book-months, 53 asks).
Book
10%·$37.10·$4.44 ask+6%Sweeping 10% of the visible book costs $37.10The next unbought ask after that sweep sits at $4.44 ask — +6% against today's cheapest.Visible asks only, at delivered prices. An unshipped listing has no delivered price and is not in this ladder.50%·$190.17·$5.54 ask+32%Sweeping 50% of the visible book costs $190.17The next unbought ask after that sweep sits at $5.54 ask — +32% against today's cheapest.Visible asks only, at delivered prices. An unshipped listing has no delivered price and is not in this ladder.80%·$310.71·$5.90 ask+41%Sweeping 80% of the visible book costs $310.71The next unbought ask after that sweep sits at $5.90 ask — +41% against today's cheapest.Visible asks only, at delivered prices. An unshipped listing has no delivered price and is not in this ladder.Book $369.90Total notional on the visible ask ladder, and the largest single seller's share of it. A book that is mostly one seller's inventory is one decision away from moving.Best ask vs fair · $3.86 vs $4.33-10.9%Best ask vs fair-10.9%$3.86 vs $4.33
Mechanics▾
Cost to +50%$369.90
clears the entire visible book
Days to absorb2.3
69 units to control
Book breadth1 level
69 units on the board
Book / 30d sold0.08x
30d traded $4,586
VenuesTCGplayer + eBay
The absorption ladder walks the visible delivered-price ask book cheapest-first: what each slice of the book costs, the ask it leaves marginal, and how far that sits from the last price the card actually traded at. Manipulation risk is the worse of two reads — how many days of this card’s own turnover it would take to absorb the cost of control, and whether the whole buyable book fits inside a single ordinary order.
Flow
—SteadyThis week's daily sold units overlap the middle half of the rest of the window, so no change in pace is separable from the noise. Trading at its own normal rate.
185 sold in 7d, 0.8× the 30d pace — 30d prints clear at $4.49 median, +16.3% vs the $3.86 floor.
This week 185 · last week 293 · 30d/wk 246
Recent prints
$5.08+31.6%3h ago$5.08 delivered, 1 unit, 2026-10-13T08:23:00.147ZMeasured against today's cheapest delivered ask — a print above it is information, not bad news.$4.19+8.5%3h ago$4.19 delivered, 1 unit, 2026-10-13T08:05:15.513ZMeasured against today's cheapest delivered ask — a print above it is information, not bad news.$5.98+54.9%5h ago$5.98 delivered, 1 unit, 2026-10-13T06:11:19.440ZMeasured against today's cheapest delivered ask — a print above it is information, not bad news.$4.49
Method▾
Daily units are the venue's own sold-quantity history, expanded off each bucket's real span, plus confirmed prints from the other side of the market. Prints come from the live sales tape at delivered prices. The floor is the cheapest delivered ask (item + required shipping) across venues — the same one FAIR VALUE prices against.
Over 30d: 505 confirmed print(s); net flow +$331.87 across 291 buy-side vs 295 sell-side unit(s); large prints (>= $6.80) were 22% of notional and skewed sell-side -> NEUTRAL.
Bottom line
—Hold57/100 on the weighted composite: at or above 65 is a buy, at or below 35 a sell, and everything between is a hold.
57/100 across 9 of 11 inputs. For: liquidity reads 99/100. Against: this one was printed in quantity.
Liquidity99Liquidity99/100Four equally-weighted readings of what counterparties did: the chance it trades today, how many of the last 30 days carried a trade, 30-day units sold against the units on the board, and how many different people are selling it. A reading nobody can measure is absent and the rest reweight.Carries 9% of the composite.Value vs fair72Value vs fair72/100The cheapest delivered ask against the blended fair-value estimate, two points per percent. Above 50 the card is trading under what the evidence says it is worth. Withheld entirely when fair value declares itself UNKNOWN — a discount measured against an untrustworthy anchor is not a discount.Carries 17% of the composite.Manipulation risk20Manipulation risk20/100RISK-ORIENTED. What it costs to walk the visible book up 50%, against both real trailing volume and one buyer’s cheque book. High here is bad, and it enters the composite inverted.Carries 9% of the composite, inverted: 20 risk entered as 80.Scarcity15Scarcity15/100How few of this card exist, as a percentile of every card we can read. Prefers PRINT SCARCITY’s estimate — graded population with the value confound divided out, turned into a print scale by the pull rate — and falls back to packs-per-copy alone where that cannot be read. Scarce is oriented as GOOD, on the theory that thinner supply supports a price. Weighted low on purpose: scarcity is fixed at print and the market has had years to price it in, so this is a structural prior rather than an edge.Carries 7% of the composite.Relative strength22Relative strength22/100This card’s 30-day return as a percentile of every tracked card that has one. 50 is "moved with the market". Declines to speak until the ranked universe is large enough to mean it.Carries 7% of the composite.Price trend54Price trend54/1007-day and 30-day returns read against the noise of this card’s own series. Above 50 the price moved further than its own noise explains; below 50 it moved the other way. Withheld on a window with no confirmed print, where the line is the relay’s published guide and the return would be a reading of its revision schedule.Carries 13% of the composite.Book pressure46Book pressure46/100Supply leaving the market or refilling it. Prefers the 30-day inventory change; falls back to the venue's own listing count over the readings held, capped tighter because a shorter window is weaker evidence. Withheld on a count that never moves, or on a book so small that one listing's arrival pins the percent to a rail.Carries 11% of the composite.Grading upside48Grading upside48/100Best expected return across grading vendors, half a point per percent — the optionality on top of the raw thesis, never the thesis itself.Carries 6% of the composite.Money flow50Money flow50/100Confirmed prints split into buy-side and sell-side against the prevailing ask, on a log scale — one decade of imbalance earns the full swing, because 100:1 is a thinner sample saying what 10:1 already said.Carries 11% of the composite.
9 of 11 inputs · 90% weight · -5% confidence▾
Not reading yet: seller concentration, reprint risk.
Liquidity9%99Four equally-weighted readings of what counterparties did: the chance it trades today, how many of the last 30 days carried a trade, 30-day units sold against the units on the board, and how many different people are selling it. A reading nobody can measure is absent and the rest reweight.Value vs fair17%72The cheapest delivered ask against the blended fair-value estimate, two points per percent. Above 50 the card is trading under what the evidence says it is worth. Withheld entirely when fair value declares itself UNKNOWN — a discount measured against an untrustworthy anchor is not a discount.Manipulation risk9%20RISK-ORIENTED. What it costs to walk the visible book up 50%, against both real trailing volume and one buyer’s cheque book. High here is bad, and it enters the composite inverted.Scarcity7%15How few of this card exist, as a percentile of every card we can read. Prefers PRINT SCARCITY’s estimate — graded population with the value confound divided out, turned into a print scale by the pull rate — and falls back to packs-per-copy alone where that cannot be read. Scarce is oriented as GOOD, on the theory that thinner supply supports a price. Weighted low on purpose: scarcity is fixed at print and the market has had years to price it in, so this is a structural prior rather than an edge.
Inside this band the two costs are within ±30% of each other — the spread splitting a rarity's odds evenly across its cards carries — and the card reads "Line ball" rather than picking a side.
Parity: $1,298 of packs on average against a $3.86 single would cost exactly the same. Left of here ripping is cheaper, right of here buying is.
$1,298 of packs on average against a $3.86 single — ripping costs 336× the single, which is past the end of a scale that stops at 119×. Read the spend as an AVERAGE: half of all openers pull it by 82 packs and the other half are still opening, with no ceiling on the tail.
BUYThe right half is where buying a copy costs LESS than opening packs. This end is where a copy costs the price of ONE pack — the cheapest single the pack arithmetic can express, since you cannot buy a fraction of a pack — and the average chase then costs 119× what a copy does.
Ripping costs 336× the single · past the end of a scale that stops at 119×The axis is what the average chase costs in copies of the card, on a LOG scale: $1,298 of packs ÷ a $3.86 single. Logs, because that ratio runs from well under 1× to thousands across the catalog and a linear axis would pin almost every card to one end. The ends are 119× — the expected packs to a hit — because the buy end is where a copy costs the price of one pack, the cheapest single the pack arithmetic can express.
Breakdown
RarityIllustration rareRarityIllustration rareThe provider's own spelling, verbatim. The odds row and this printing have to carry the same string or no estimate is made — a mismatch must produce nothing rather than another rarity's rate.Slot odds1 in 9.1 packsSlot odds1 in 9.1 packsTCGplayer (Authentication Center) — no sample size published. Measured Nov 15, 2025, 332d before this reading. 10.97% ± 0.86% of packs, 95% CI (>5,000 packs). Community measurement, not official odds: nobody publishes physical pack rates.Cards at rarity13 in Phantasmal FlamesCards at rarity13 in Phantasmal FlamesCounted from the catalog: 13 printings in Phantasmal Flames carry the rarity "Illustration rare".This card1 in 119 packs±30%This card1 in 119 packsThe rarity’s measured odds, split evenly across the 13 cards printed at it. That even split is the estimate's weakest link, and it is bounded rather than hand-waved: a published 8,000-pack study put two Special Illustration Rares from one set at 1 in 309 and 1 in 393 packs — same rarity, same set — so a per-card figure is good to about ±30%.Pack price$10.95Pack price$10.95$394.08 for Phantasmal Flames Booster Box (its newest stored price, Oct 13, 2026) ÷ 36 packs. The pack count is a distributor’s own published lot configuration, agreed by every distributor that carries this product. A pack count is never assumed from the product type.Expected spend$1,298grossExpected spend$1,298119 packs × $10.95. Expected spend is gross. Those packs also contain everything else you pull, and we price none of it — so ripping really costs less than the figure above.Single, delivered$3.86Single, delivered$3.86The cheapest delivered ask across venues — item plus required shipping, with unknown-shipping listings excluded. The same figure FAIR VALUE prices against, so the two cards cannot disagree about what a copy costs.
Expected spend is gross. Those packs also contain everything else you pull, and we price none of it — so ripping really costs less than the figure above.Booster packs are not a lottery ticket with one prize. Every pack opened on the way to this card also holds commons, uncommons, reverse holos and other hits, and none of that is priced into the figure above — so the number is an upper bound on what ripping really costs you.
Method▾
P(this card, per pack) = the published odds of its RARITY appearing, split evenly across the cards printed at that rarity in the set. Expected packs is 1/p, the mean of the geometric distribution. The range plots expected pack spend ÷ the single's delivered price on a log axis centred on parity. Pack price is a sealed product's own price divided by its stated pack count, and is computed only where that count carries a source. The single is the cheapest delivered ask (item + required shipping) across venues — the same figure FAIR VALUE prices against.
The Pokémon Company has never published physical booster odds in any region — the only official drop-rate page covers the digital TCG Live packs and lists no probabilities at all. Every figure here is a hand-entered citation of a published pack-opening study, and each one names its source and sample on hover.
Sealed
—No MSRP on fileThese products are priced, but not one of them carries a recorded MSRP with a source behind it. An MSRP is somebody’s assertion rather than a published dataset, and an appreciation measured against nothing is not a judgement this card will invent. The prices are listed below; the comparison is what is missing.
23 of this set’s 25 sealed products carry a price; none carries a recorded MSRP to measure appreciation against.
Set supply · not this card’sThe set's wholesale supply, not this card's — bulk lifts every raw copy in the set.▼Low21 lots listed on 2026-10-13 — higher than 50% of the set's own readings; 7344 packs on hand, higher than 7% over 29 readings in 90 days.21 lots · 7,344 packs · CA$16.67 CAD/pack
Method▾
Sealed product from Phantasmal Flames — the set this card was printed in. We track which set a product belongs to, not which cards are inside it. Appreciation is each product’s last stored price against its own recorded MSRP, in percent. The card’s call is the MEDIAN of those percentages across the products that have an MSRP — a median rather than a mean, so one outlier SKU cannot carry a whole set — and a product with no MSRP on file is left out of that aggregate rather than counted as zero; it still lists below with its price. MSRP is somebody’s assertion rather than a published dataset, so it is shown only where a source is recorded against it, and that source is on the row’s hover. The bands are a legend for the percentage the card prints beside them: within ±5% is at MSRP, which is this repo’s own fair-value tolerance; up to +25% is a slight premium; up to +100% a significant one; at or above +100% the price has at least doubled and the figure is stated as a multiple, because a four-digit percentage is not a number anybody reads. Each price line takes a day’s observed low/high sale range and plots its midpoint; on a day with no recorded sale it carries the provider’s own daily guide value instead — a quoted price, not a transaction — and those days are drawn dashed, never described as trades. Every line is indexed to its own first stored day = 100, so the chart compares appreciation between products rather than price levels: a booster pack and a booster box cannot honestly share a dollar axis.
Restock
—Not readReadings exist, but none of them is a positive statement either way. UNKNOWN means we loaded the page and could not tell — never that the shelf was empty.
11 tracked SKUs, and not one of them could be read on the last pass.
Best Buy: not currently tracked.Walmart: not currently tracked.Target: 11 SKUs of Phantasmal Flames's sealed products tracked.GameStop: not currently tracked.
1 retailer tracked · Target · 3 not monitoredEvery retailer in the registry has a cell, including the ones that are not tracked — a shelf nobody is watching reads UNKNOWN, never 'sold out'. One store's empty shelf is not the whole market, and an untracked one is not evidence about the market at all.Set-level: Phantasmal Flames sealed products, not this cardRetail rows attach to SEALED products only — no big-box retailer sells single cards — so this whole card is the SET's shelf availability. It is not a statement about this card, and a card's own price is unaffected by it.Newest reading 28d ago · Sep 15, 08:01 UTCAvailability decays faster than any other number on the site, so this read is never cached and every row states its own age. An hour-old 'in stock' is a guess; the age is how you tell.Print status unknownThere is no published source for whether a Pokémon product is still being printed — The Pokémon Company has never announced print cessation in any region, and the annual rotation announcement is about tournament legality, not production. So this is an inference, never a fact, and the verdict above comes from observed shelf readings instead. Nothing direct is on file here — no shelf reading either way and no recorded reprint announcement — and release age plus a price ratio is a hypothesis, not a print status, so no estimate is made.
Shelf prices are pre-tax and exclude shipping — never comparable to a delivered price.Retail shelf prices are pre-tax and exclude shipping, so they are not comparable to the delivered marketplace prices shown elsewhere on this page. They are never fed into a delivered-price floor.Method▾
Each row is one tracked retailer's most recent reading of one of the set's sealed products, at that retailer's own SKU. A restock is an observed OUT_OF_STOCK → IN_STOCK transition in that SKU's reading history, never a change we inferred from a price or a gap. Shelf prices are pre-tax and exclude shipping, so they are not delivered prices and are never fed into a floor.
Absorption
—Building historyToo few readings of the book to tell a drawdown from noise. The count is on the card — see the note below.
31 readings of this book so far, one per 1 day, over 30d. The direction reads once there are enough of them to tell a drawdown from noise.
Method▾
Each reading takes the venue's own listing count for this card in this condition — the whole book — at that instant. The direction is classified by the platform's absorption reading over that series: a book drawn down with demand behind it reads as accumulation, one that refills after a drawdown reads as distribution. Copies and sellers come from the cheapest asks we sample, not from the book, and are labelled as such. Sold units are confirmed prints from the live tape over the same span, and are shown only when the tape reaches back past the first reading.
The direction is classified over the platform-standard 30-day trailing window. That window is a scope, not a history: it contains exactly the readings counted on this card and no others — and only readings that counted the venue’s own book, never a sampled one trended against a counted one.
Slab premium
▲Strong slab premiumThe dearest priced rung is PSA 10 at $67.00, 17.4× the $3.86 raw reference (cheapest delivered ask).
A PSA 10 is worth $67.00 — 17.4× the $3.86 raw cheapest delivered ask.
Dearest slab per grading company
PSA 10$67.0017.4×PSA 10 — $67.00, 17.4× raw$56.87 · EBAY · 2026-10-11 · $70.00 · EBAY · 2026-10-11 · $67.00 · EBAY · 2026-10-11 +84 more print(s)TAG 10$64.0516.6×TAG 10 — $64.05, 16.6× raw$53.00 · EBAY · 2026-10-04 · $64.05 · EBAY · 2026-07-28 · $100.00 · EBAY · 2026-07-18CGC Pristine 10$62.5016.2×CGC Pristine 10 — $62.50, 16.2× raw$40.00 · EBAY · 2026-09-23 · $60.00 · EBAY · 2026-09-11 · $45.00 · EBAY · 2026-09-10 +9 more print(s)ACE 10$39.9910.4×ACE 10 — $39.99, 10.4× raw$39.81 · EBAY · 2026-10-04 · $39.63 · EBAY · 2026-09-30 · $40.52 · EBAY · 2026-09-11 +3 more print(s)BGS 9.5$18.504.8×BGS 9.5 — $18.50, 4.8× raw$18.50 · EBAY · 2026-09-27Raw$3.86askA live listing. Nobody has paid this.1.0×Raw — $3.86, 1.0× rawThe cheapest copy actually listed for sale, delivered — item plus required shipping. An offer, not a price anybody has paid. Every multiple on this ladder is taken against it.
A PSA 10 fetches 5% more than a TAG 10.
One rung down, a PSA 9 is $20.00 — 5.2× raw.
Grading ROI
▼Don't gradeCGC: -$13.82 expected after $45.00 of fees — break-even needs 92% gems; observed 59% (95% floor 56%, n=1250).
Best on CGC: -$13.82 expected after $45.00 of fees — break-even needs 92% gems; observed 59% (95% floor 56%, n=1250).
Odds of a 10 vs what it takes
CGC needs 92% tens to break even; the census shows 59%, with a 95% interval of 56% to 62% on 1250 slabs.
break-even 92.3%Break-even92.3%The 10 rate this submission would need just to cover the raw price and the fee. It is the white line on the meter above: the solid segment has to clear it before grading is worth doing at all.observed 59.0% [56.3%–61.7%] n=1250Observed 10 rate59.0%Measured over 1250 graded copies in the census, with a 95% interval of 56.3%–61.7% around it — the band on the meter IS that interval, and it is the width of the doubt, not of the opportunity. A small n makes it wide.
VendorVendorThe grading company, one row each. Rows are the graders we hold both a fee schedule and a population census for — a grader we cannot price is left out rather than estimated.
FeeFeeThe all-in submission cost per card at this grader: grading tier plus shipping both ways and insurance, as published. A † marks a fee we could not read from a published schedule and had to carry from a prior reading. Lower is better.
P(10)P(10)The share of this card’s submissions to this grader that came back a 10, from its own population census. It is what WAS submitted and kept, not the odds your particular copy grades — a card people only submit when it looks perfect reads high here for that reason alone.
10 price10 priceWhat a 10 from this grader actually sells for. The superscript says what kind of evidence that is — a sale, an unsold listing, or the provider’s own modelled guide.
ROI(10)ROI(10)Return if the card grades a 10 and sells at that price: (10 price − raw price − fee) over what you put in. The BEST case, before any probability is applied. Higher is better.
Pre-grade this card →Photograph your own copy front and back for centering, wear and the odds of each grade. An estimate, not a grade.
$3.86 raw (cheapest delivered ask) + $20.00 CGC Economy + $25.00 ship/ins = $48.86 · less 13.25% sale fee · 45d lockup
Share of what was submitted and kept — not the odds your copy grades 10.
Special illustration rare1 in 400Special illustration rare — 5 cards at this rarity, so one NAMED Special illustration rare is 1 in 400 packs.
Ultra Rare1 in 211Ultra Rare — 17 cards at this rarity, so one NAMED Ultra Rare is 1 in 211 packs.
Illustration rare1 in 119Illustration rare — 13 cards at this rarity, so one NAMED Illustration rare is 1 in 119 packs.
Double rare1 in 48Double rare — 10 cards at this rarity, so one NAMED Double rare is 1 in 48 packs.
Hit tiers in Phantasmal Flames, hardest at the top. Log scale.
Method▾
P(this card, per pack) = the published odds of its RARITY appearing, split evenly across the cards printed at that rarity in the set; the figure shown is 1/p, the mean number of packs to one copy. The ladder plots every tier of the set on a logarithmic scale, because a set spans two orders of magnitude between its commonest hit and its hardest and a linear scale would pin all but one of them to the same end.
The Pokémon Company has never published physical booster odds in any region — the only official drop-rate page covers the digital TCG Live packs and lists no probabilities at all. This figure is a hand-entered citation of a published pack-opening study of this set.
Print scarcity
•Too new to readGraded population climbs for about a year after a set releases and then levels off, so a set inside that ramp looks lightly printed purely because nobody has sent its cards in yet. Phantasmal Flames is 10 months old. We hold the read until 12 months.
Graded population climbs for about a year after a set releases and then levels off, so a set inside that ramp looks lightly printed purely because nobody has sent its cards in yet. Phantasmal Flames is 10 months old. We hold the read until 12 months.
LightModerateHeavy
Model inputs
Graded copies8,630 copiesGraded copies8,630 copiesSlabs on record across PSA, CGC and ACE, summed over every grade. The model’s raw input — it is NOT the print run, because a card people grade often will show a large population off a small press run. Ungraded and sealed copies are invisible to it.Packs per copy1 in 119Packs per copy1 in 119How many packs it takes to see one named copy of this card — the same figure SCARCITY leads with. It is what converts a set-wide print scale into this card’s own.Set read from46 cardsSet read from46 cardsEvery card in the set with a price, a population and a pull rate gives an independent estimate of how many packs of the set exist. They are pooled by median, so one mis-joined card cannot move the answer.
Method▾
Graded population is print run × how often anyone bothers grading it, and the second factor moves with VALUE — so population is divided by price^0.606, the elasticity fitted across 3,826 cards that carry a population, a price and a pull rate at once. That normalised count is turned into a SET pack scale using the card’s pull rate (every card in a set is an independent read on how many packs exist, pooled by median), then brought back down to this card by its own pull rate. The band is a tertile of the result across every card that clears the gates.
Nobody has ever published a Pokémon print run, and this does not recover one — it is an ORDER, not a count. It reads surviving graded supply across PSA, CGC and ACE, so ungraded and sealed stock are invisible to it. What it is checked against: the model puts Black & White at the bottom of the catalog and modern Scarlet & Violet at the top, which is where the smallest and largest print runs actually are.
No announcement naming mark H has been published. Standard rotation dates are curated by hand from official announcements; a mark with no announced date carries none rather than a guess.
30d sold1,055 units (-2% vs prior 30d)Units of THIS printing sold in the 30 days ending October 13, 2026, against the 30 days before that (1,082). Demand at a table and demand in the market are different measurements; this is the second one.
Meta vs priceρ +0.79 (8 weeks)Spearman rank correlation of weekly share against weekly median price over the trailing 26 weeks, on the weeks carrying both. Printed only at 8 weeks or more; below that the count is stated instead of a coefficient off a handful of readings.
Meta share · % of Standard decklists (right axis)Median price · this print, $ (left axis)Units sold per day (bars)
Does the meta move the price? Share of Standard decklists running this card against this print's median sale price and units sold, day by day; the rank correlation above is printed once 8 weeks exist.
94.5% of card lines in these decklists matched a card in our catalog; an unmatched line is never counted. Online events only, not Regionals or Worlds. Tournament results →
Card text▾
HP60
TypesDarkness
StageBasic
AttacksD Trip Over · 10+Cost: DarknessFlip a coin. If heads, this attack does 20 more damage.
WeaknessFighting ×2
Retreat1
Regulation markH
LegalStandard ✓legal · Expanded ✓legal
EvidenceEvidenceThe specific observations the explanation rests on. If this row is thin, treat the explanation as thin — it is the only thing holding it up.
Evidence: item-basis daily bars, TCGplayer active listings, absorption read ("Over 30d: inventory +2.7%, cheap depth no data, sales velocity no data -> NEUTRAL.").
ConfidenceConfidenceHow much weight to put on the primary explanation, given how much of the evidence actually resolved. It qualifies the row above; it never adds to it.
Confidence: 30% (floor-confidence 51/100), based on 334 days of observations.
What would disprove itWhat would disprove itThe observation that would break the primary explanation. It is what makes the reading falsifiable rather than unfalsifiable — and it is the thing to watch for next.
This read would be wrong if active listings rebound above 0 while sold median keeps falling.
CatalogCard identity: set, number, rarity, finish, release date. It dates from the printing itself, so an old reading here is expected and is not staleness.
Nov 14, 2025
333d
98%
No
Live askA copy offered for sale right now. An ask is what a seller wants, not what anyone paid — it bounds the price from above until it clears.
Oct 13, 2026
55m
90%
No
Price statisticAn observed figure computed over several rows rather than one print — a delivered floor, a published median over a window.
Oct 13, 2026
2h
90%
No
Confirmed saleA completed transaction at a known price — the strongest evidence on this page. Prices are delivered (item + required shipping).
Oct 13, 2026
3h
85%
No
Inventory countHow many copies and listings stand on the book. What depth, supply and absorption are measured against.
Oct 13, 2026
2h
70%
No
Guide priceA calculated market guide — a model of where the product is trading. Never a confirmed sale, and always marked Modelled.
Oct 13, 2026
12h
60%
Yes
Population censusA grader's published count of the copies it has slabbed at each grade. A record of what was submitted and kept, never the odds a copy grades.
Oct 12, 2026
19h
60%
No
Raw · Holo · Near MintWhat every row above was gathered for — one printing, in this one finish and condition or grade. Change either switcher in the header and you are reading a different one; the page's own URL is the address of exactly this one.pq-quant-2026.10.0The version of the scoring and analytics formulas that produced everything on this page. Two figures computed under different versions are not comparable, which is why the version is stated rather than assumed.
+16.3%
5h ago
$4.49 delivered, 1 unit, 2026-10-13T06:07:26.853ZMeasured against today's cheapest delivered ask — a print above it is information, not bad news.
$4.19+8.5%7h ago$4.19 delivered, 1 unit, 2026-10-13T04:29:59.783ZMeasured against today's cheapest delivered ask — a print above it is information, not bad news.
$3.90+1.0%7h ago$3.90 delivered, 1 unit, 2026-10-13T04:14:48.870ZMeasured against today's cheapest delivered ask — a print above it is information, not bad news.
Relative strength7%22This card’s 30-day return as a percentile of every tracked card that has one. 50 is "moved with the market". Declines to speak until the ranked universe is large enough to mean it.
Price trend13%547-day and 30-day returns read against the noise of this card’s own series. Above 50 the price moved further than its own noise explains; below 50 it moved the other way. Withheld on a window with no confirmed print, where the line is the relay’s published guide and the return would be a reading of its revision schedule.
Book pressure11%46Supply leaving the market or refilling it. Prefers the 30-day inventory change; falls back to the venue's own listing count over the readings held, capped tighter because a shorter window is weaker evidence. Withheld on a count that never moves, or on a book so small that one listing's arrival pins the percent to a rail.
Grading upside6%48Best expected return across grading vendors, half a point per percent — the optionality on top of the raw thesis, never the thesis itself.
Money flow11%50Confirmed prints split into buy-side and sell-side against the prevailing ask, on a log scale — one decade of imbalance earns the full swing, because 100:1 is a thinner sample saying what 10:1 already said.
Seller concentration5%no readingThe venue attributes no seller identity to these asks.
Reprint risk5%no readingPrint status is unestablished — no shelf observation and no recorded reprint event.
The bottom line is a weighted mean of the signals that reported, renormalised so their weights sum to 1. Nothing defaults to a neutral 50: an input with no evidence is reweighted away and its absence is charged as a confidence penalty. Risk rows (manipulation, concentration, reprint) enter inverted. Data quality carries no weight at all — it decides whether the verdict may be spoken, because knowing a lot about a card is not a reason to buy it. Competitive meta sits OUTSIDE the weighted mean as a capped bonus added after it: a card nobody plays is never marked down for that, and a card the meta is built on can be marked up for it.
The Booster Pack's most recent plotted day carries an observed sale.
Indexed to each product’s own first stored day = 100. Booster Pack in front, 21 behind · dashed = guide price, no sale that day.Each line is that product’s own price divided by its own first stored day and multiplied by 100, so every series starts on the dotted rule and the axis measures APPRECIATION rather than price. Dollars could not do this job here: a booster pack and a booster box differ by two orders of magnitude, and on a shared dollar axis the pack would sit flat on the floor of the plot however far it had actually travelled. The Booster Pack is the base unit and is drawn in front; the rest are drawn behind it, and each one’s own numbers are in the table below. A dashed stretch is a run of days with no recorded sale, carrying the provider’s daily guide value — a quoted price, never a trade.
Appreciation vs MSRP
ProductPriceMSRPvs MSRPEvery sealed product the catalog holds for this set, ordered by how standard a unit each is for tracking a set’s sealed price. PRICE is the product’s last stored day — a sale where one was recorded, the provider’s daily guide value where none was, and the row’s hover says which. MSRP is blank wherever no source is recorded against one, because an MSRP with nobody behind it is not a fact. VS MSRP is the price against that MSRP, as a percentage up to a doubling and as a multiple past it.
Booster Pack$12.50——Phantasmal Flames Booster Pack—Phantasmal Flames Booster Pack. Last sale $12.50 on Oct 13, 2026. No MSRP is recorded against this product, so there is nothing to measure a premium from; the blank is a missing MSRP, not a missing price.Single Pack Blister [Whimsicott]$12.79——Phantasmal Flames Single Pack Blister [Whimsicott]—Phantasmal Flames Single Pack Blister [Whimsicott]. Quoted at $12.79 on Oct 12, 2026 — a guide price, with no sale recorded that day. No MSRP is recorded against this product, so there is nothing to measure a premium from; the blank is a missing MSRP, not a missing price.Single Pack Blister [Cottonee]$12.88——Phantasmal Flames Single Pack Blister [Cottonee]—Phantasmal Flames Single Pack Blister [Cottonee]. Quoted at $12.88 on Oct 12, 2026 — a guide price, with no sale recorded that day. No MSRP is recorded against this product, so there is nothing to measure a premium from; the blank is a missing MSRP, not a missing price.Sleeved Booster Pack$13.88——Phantasmal Flames Sleeved Booster Pack—Phantasmal Flames Sleeved Booster Pack. Last sale $13.88 on Oct 12, 2026. No MSRP is recorded against this product, so there is nothing to measure a premium from; the blank is a missing MSRP, not a missing price.Premium Checklane Blister [Arven's Greedent]$14.38——Phantasmal Flames Premium Checklane Blister [Arven's Greedent]—Phantasmal Flames Premium Checklane Blister [Arven's Greedent]. Quoted at $14.38 on Oct 12, 2026 — a guide price, with no sale recorded that day. No MSRP is recorded against this product, so there is nothing to measure a premium from; the blank is a missing MSRP, not a missing price.Premium Checklane Blister [Ethan's Magcargo]$15.96——Phantasmal Flames Premium Checklane Blister [Ethan's Magcargo]—Phantasmal Flames Premium Checklane Blister [Ethan's Magcargo]. Quoted at $15.96 on Oct 12, 2026 — a guide price, with no sale recorded that day. No MSRP is recorded against this product, so there is nothing to measure a premium from; the blank is a missing MSRP, not a missing price.Premium Checklane Blister [Blaziken]$31.35——Phantasmal Flames Premium Checklane Blister [Blaziken]—Phantasmal Flames Premium Checklane Blister [Blaziken]. Quoted at $31.35 on Oct 12, 2026 — a guide price, with no sale recorded that day. No MSRP is recorded against this product, so there is nothing to measure a premium from; the blank is a missing MSRP, not a missing price.Premium Checklane Blister [Hydrapple]$31.69——Phantasmal Flames Premium Checklane Blister [Hydrapple]—Phantasmal Flames Premium Checklane Blister [Hydrapple]. Quoted at $31.69 on Oct 12, 2026 — a guide price, with no sale recorded that day. No MSRP is recorded against this product, so there is nothing to measure a premium from; the blank is a missing MSRP, not a missing price.
Phantasmal Flames Booster Pack at Target, SKU 1007155452 — Not read, no shelf price shown. Read Sep 15, 08:01 UTC. A Phantasmal Flames sealed product, not this card.
Not readPhantasmal Flames Booster Pack28d agoPhantasmal Flames Booster Pack at Target, SKU 1007155453 — Not read, no shelf price shown. Read Sep 15, 08:01 UTC. A Phantasmal Flames sealed product, not this card.
Not readPhantasmal Flames Booster Pack28d agoPhantasmal Flames Booster Pack at Target, SKU 1007155454 — Not read, no shelf price shown. Read Sep 15, 08:01 UTC. A Phantasmal Flames sealed product, not this card.
Not readPhantasmal Flames Build & Battle Box28d agoPhantasmal Flames Build & Battle Box at Target, SKU 1007274410 — Not read, no shelf price shown. Read Sep 15, 08:01 UTC. A Phantasmal Flames sealed product, not this card.
Not readPhantasmal Flames Sleeved Booster Pack28d agoPhantasmal Flames Sleeved Booster Pack at Target, SKU 1007487551 — Not read, no shelf price shown. Read Sep 15, 08:01 UTC. A Phantasmal Flames sealed product, not this card.
Not readPhantasmal Flames Sleeved Booster Pack28d agoPhantasmal Flames Sleeved Booster Pack at Target, SKU 1007155471 — Not read, no shelf price shown. Read Sep 15, 08:01 UTC. A Phantasmal Flames sealed product, not this card.
Not readPhantasmal Flames Sleeved Booster Pack28d agoPhantasmal Flames Sleeved Booster Pack at Target, SKU 1007155474 — Not read, no shelf price shown. Read Sep 15, 08:01 UTC. A Phantasmal Flames sealed product, not this card.
Not readPhantasmal Flames Sleeved Booster Pack28d agoPhantasmal Flames Sleeved Booster Pack at Target, SKU 1007155475 — Not read, no shelf price shown. Read Sep 15, 08:01 UTC. A Phantasmal Flames sealed product, not this card.
Not readPhantasmal Flames Sleeved Booster Pack28d agoPhantasmal Flames Sleeved Booster Pack at Target, SKU 1007155477 — Not read, no shelf price shown. Read Sep 15, 08:01 UTC. A Phantasmal Flames sealed product, not this card.
Risk-wtdRisk-wtdThe same return weighted by the odds of each grade, not just the 10 — the number to compare graders on, because a high P(10) at a high fee can lose to a lower one. A leading ≈ means the full grade distribution was unavailable and a coarser method stood in. Higher is better.
ACE
$24.39ACE Basic — the cheapest tier accepting single-card submissions, read 2026-10-06. £18.00 converted at GBP/USD 1.355 (2026-09-01) — a conversion, not a quoted USD price. Cheaper tiers you cannot use today: Core $16.26, Value $20.33.
86.5%95% interval 83.9%–88.6% on n=812. A share of what was submitted and kept, not submission odds.
$39.99What a 10 from this grader actually sells for. The superscript says what kind of evidence that is — a sale, an unsold listing, or the provider’s own modelled guide.
-35%-$18.56 on a $53.25 cost basis.
≈-43%No ACE price below grade 10 exists at any basis, so a miss is valued at the raw reference price — fee and shipping sunk for a slab the market pays no premium for.
BGS
$79.95BGS Express — the cheapest tier accepting single-card submissions, read 2026-09-01. Cheaper tiers you cannot use today: Base $14.95.
—The share of this card’s submissions to this grader that came back a 10, from its own population census. It is what WAS submitted and kept, not the odds your particular copy grades — a card people only submit when it looks perfect reads high here for that reason alone.
—No 10 price is on file for BGS, so no return can be computed for it — an absence, never a zero.
—Return if the card grades a 10 and sells at that price: (10 price − raw price − fee) over what you put in. The BEST case, before any probability is applied. Higher is better.
—Risk-weighted ROI withheld: no BGS population total, so P(10) has no honest denominator.
CGC
$20.00CGC Economy — the cheapest tier accepting single-card submissions, read 2026-10-06. Cheaper tiers you cannot use today: Bulk $17.00.
59.0%95% interval 56.3%–61.7% on n=1250. A share of what was submitted and kept, not submission odds.
$56.25What a 10 from this grader actually sells for. The superscript says what kind of evidence that is — a sale, an unsold listing, or the provider’s own modelled guide.
-0%-$0.06 on a $48.86 cost basis.
≈-31%Only 48% of the CGC distribution is priced, so this falls back to P(10)·ROI(10) + (1−P(10))·ROI(pooled sub-10 price).
PSA
$59.99PSA Standard — the cheapest tier accepting single-card submissions, read 2026-10-06. Cheaper tiers you cannot use today: Value Bulk $24.99, Value $32.99.
52.4%95% interval 51.2%–53.6% on n=6564. A share of what was submitted and kept, not submission odds.
$67.00What a 10 from this grader actually sells for. The superscript says what kind of evidence that is — a sale, an unsold listing, or the provider’s own modelled guide.
-35%-$30.73 on a $88.85 cost basis.
-57%Risk-weighted across all 9 PSA rungs; 99% of the distribution carried its own price, the remaining 1% valued at the pooled sub-10 price.
TAG
$59.95TAG Standard — the cheapest tier accepting single-card submissions, read 2026-10-06. Cheaper tiers you cannot use today: Basic $22.00.
—The share of this card’s submissions to this grader that came back a 10, from its own population census. It is what WAS submitted and kept, not the odds your particular copy grades — a card people only submit when it looks perfect reads high here for that reason alone.
$64.05What a 10 from this grader actually sells for. The superscript says what kind of evidence that is — a sale, an unsold listing, or the provider’s own modelled guide.
-37%-$33.25 on a $88.81 cost basis.
—Risk-weighted ROI withheld: no TAG population total, so P(10) has no honest denominator.
