modelled guide
Thin liquidity
TCGplayer reported
live delivered asks
as of Sep 13, 2026 · UTC
history since Jul 2026
Toxicroak — 63/113 · 1DMkt$0.210.0%guide price · 7-day avgitem price
Vol — sold·0 prints·1 obssingle obs — no range
Insufficient data
No fair value is published for this card — no confirmed print or completed auction in 30 days — an estimate built from live asks alone would be a restatement of the book.
Nothing is listed for sale, so there is no book for one buyer to move.
VenuesTCGplayer
The absorption ladder walks the visible delivered-price ask book cheapest-first: what each slice of the book costs, the ask it leaves marginal, and how far that sits from the last price the card actually traded at. Manipulation risk is the worse of two reads — how many days of this card’s own turnover it would take to absorb the cost of control, and whether the whole buyable book fits inside a single ordinary order.
Insufficient data
Only 1 unit sold in 30 days — under the 8-unit floor for reading a pace.
Daily units are the venue's own sold-quantity history, expanded off each bucket's real span, plus confirmed prints from the other side of the market. Prints come from the live sales tape at delivered prices. The floor is the cheapest delivered ask (item + required shipping) across venues — the same one FAIR VALUE prices against.
15/100 across 2 of 11 inputs. Against: liquidity reads 17/100. That is under half the model, so no call is made on it.
Not reading yet: value vs fair, price trend, money flow, book pressure, grading upside, manipulation risk, seller concentration, reprint risk, scarcity.
The bottom line is a weighted mean of the signals that reported, renormalised so their weights sum to 1. Nothing defaults to a neutral 50: an input with no evidence is reweighted away and its absence is charged as a confidence penalty. Risk rows (manipulation, concentration, reprint) enter inverted. Data quality carries no weight at all — it decides whether the verdict may be spoken, because knowing a lot about a card is not a reason to buy it. Competitive meta sits OUTSIDE the weighted mean as a capped bonus added after it: a card nobody plays is never marked down for that, and a card the meta is built on can be marked up for it.
1 of this set’s 3 sealed products carry a price; none carries a recorded MSRP to measure appreciation against.
Appreciation vs MSRP
ProductPriceMSRPvs MSRPEvery sealed product the catalog holds for this set, ordered by how standard a unit each is for tracking a set’s sealed price. PRICE is the product’s last stored day — a sale where one was recorded, the provider’s daily guide value where none was, and the row’s hover says which. MSRP is blank wherever no source is recorded against one, because an MSRP with nobody behind it is not a fact. VS MSRP is the price against that MSRP, as a percentage up to a doubling and as a multiple past it.Sealed product from Legendary Treasures — the set this card was printed in. We track which set a product belongs to, not which cards are inside it. Appreciation is each product’s last stored price against its own recorded MSRP, in percent. The card’s call is the MEDIAN of those percentages across the products that have an MSRP — a median rather than a mean, so one outlier SKU cannot carry a whole set — and a product with no MSRP on file is left out of that aggregate rather than counted as zero; it still lists below with its price. MSRP is somebody’s assertion rather than a published dataset, so it is shown only where a source is recorded against it, and that source is on the row’s hover. The bands are a legend for the percentage the card prints beside them: within ±5% is at MSRP, which is this repo’s own fair-value tolerance; up to +25% is a slight premium; up to +100% a significant one; at or above +100% the price has at least doubled and the figure is stated as a multiple, because a four-digit percentage is not a number anybody reads. Each price line takes a day’s observed low/high sale range and plots its midpoint; on a day with no recorded sale it carries the provider’s own daily guide value instead — a quoted price, not a transaction — and those days are drawn dashed, never described as trades. Every line is indexed to its own first stored day = 100, so the chart compares appreciation between products rather than price levels: a booster pack and a booster box cannot honestly share a dollar axis.
3 sealed products in this set, and no retailer has ever been read for any of them — which is not the same as sold out.
Each row is one tracked retailer's most recent reading of one of the set's sealed products, at that retailer's own SKU. A restock is an observed OUT_OF_STOCK → IN_STOCK transition in that SKU's reading history, never a change we inferred from a price or a gap. Shelf prices are pre-tax and exclude shipping, so they are not delivered prices and are never fed into a floor.
0 units listed — 0.0d of stock at the 30-day pace of 0.0/day.
A PSA 10 is worth $34.15 — 162.6× the $0.21 raw modelled guide price — and that is the provider’s modelled value, not a sale.
Dearest slab per grading company
PSA 10$34.15guideThe provider’s MODELLED value for this grade — not a sale and not even an offer. Often extrapolated from the grades that did sell.163×PSA 10 — $34.15, 162.6× rawRaw$0.21guideThe provider’s MODELLED value for this grade — not a sale and not even an offer. Often extrapolated from the grades that did sell.1.0×Raw — $0.21, 1.0× rawThe venue’s published daily market guide, which the venue itself declares MODELLED. Nothing is confirmed to have traded at it, no copy is listed at it, and it is not our estimate — it is theirs. Every multiple on this ladder is taken against it.One rung down, a PSA 9 is $9.95 — 47.4× raw.
Best on PSA: No PSA population total for this printing, so P(10) has no honest denominator. PSA populations aren't split by finish for this card yet, so we don't use them.
| VendorVendorThe grading company, one row each. Rows are the graders we hold both a fee schedule and a population census for — a grader we cannot price is left out rather than estimated. | FeeFeeThe all-in submission cost per card at this grader: grading tier plus shipping both ways and insurance, as published. A † marks a fee we could not read from a published schedule and had to carry from a prior reading. Lower is better. | P(10)P(10)The share of this card’s submissions to this grader that came back a 10, from its own population census. It is what WAS submitted and kept, not the odds your particular copy grades — a card people only submit when it looks perfect reads high here for that reason alone. | 10 price10 priceWhat a 10 from this grader actually sells for. The superscript says what kind of evidence that is — a sale, an unsold listing, or the provider’s own modelled guide. | ROI(10)ROI(10)Return if the card grades a 10 and sells at that price: (10 price − raw price − fee) over what you put in. The BEST case, before any probability is applied. Higher is better. | Risk-wtdRisk-wtdThe same return weighted by the odds of each grade, not just the 10 — the number to compare graders on, because a high P(10) at a high fee can lose to a lower one. A leading ≈ means the full grade distribution was unavailable and a coarser method stood in. Higher is better. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSA | $59.99PSA Standard — the cheapest tier accepting single-card submissions, read 2026-10-06. Cheaper tiers you cannot use today: Value Bulk $24.99, Value $32.99. | —The share of this card’s submissions to this grader that came back a 10, from its own population census. It is what WAS submitted and kept, not the odds your particular copy grades — a card people only submit when it looks perfect reads high here for that reason alone. | $34.15What a 10 from this grader actually sells for. The superscript says what kind of evidence that is — a sale, an unsold listing, or the provider’s own modelled guide.guideThe provider’s MODELLED value for this grade — not a sale and not even an offer. Often extrapolated from the grades that did sell. | -65%-$55.57 on a $85.20 cost basis. | —Risk-weighted ROI withheld: no PSA population total, so P(10) has no honest denominator. |
$0.21 raw (modelled guide price) + $59.99 PSA Standard + $25.00 ship/ins = $85.20 · less 13.25% sale fee · 45d lockup
A set needs at least three cards carrying a price, a graded population and a pull rate at once before its print scale means anything. this set does not reach that, so there is nothing to rank this card against.
Graded population is print run × how often anyone bothers grading it, and the second factor moves with VALUE — so population is divided by price^0.606, the elasticity fitted across 3,826 cards that carry a population, a price and a pull rate at once. That normalised count is turned into a SET pack scale using the card’s pull rate (every card in a set is an independent read on how many packs exist, pooled by median), then brought back down to this card by its own pull rate. The band is a tertile of the result across every card that clears the gates.
Nobody has ever published a Pokémon print run, and this does not recover one — it is an ORDER, not a count. It reads surviving graded supply across PSA, CGC and ACE, so ungraded and sealed stock are invisible to it. What it is checked against: the model puts Black & White at the bottom of the catalog and modern Scarlet & Violet at the top, which is where the smallest and largest print runs actually are.

Does the meta move the price? Share of Standard decklists running this card against this print's median sale price and units sold, day by day; the rank correlation above is printed once 8 weeks exist.
94.5% of card lines in these decklists matched a card in our catalog; an unmatched line is never counted. Online events only, not Regionals or Worlds. Tournament results →
Loading opportunities…
| EvidenceEvidenceWhat kind of fact this row is. A completed sale, a live ask and a calculated guide price are three different weights of evidence about the same number, and this column is the difference between them. | ObservedObservedThe day the fact was read — not the day the underlying event happened, and not today. An old date is an old reading. | AgeAgeHow long ago this row was read, as of the moment the page was computed. | ConfidenceConfidenceHow much weight this row carries where it feeds a model, from the resolver that matched it. Lower means a looser match or a thinner source, and a low-confidence row is reweighted rather than dropped. | ModelledModelledYes = a CALCULATED value (a guide price, an estimate); No = something actually observed (a sale, a listing, a census count). A modelled row is evidence about a model, not about the market. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CatalogCard identity: set, number, rarity, finish, release date. It dates from the printing itself, so an old reading here is expected and is not staleness. | Nov 6, 2013 | 12.9y | 98% | No |
| Live askA copy offered for sale right now. An ask is what a seller wants, not what anyone paid — it bounds the price from above until it clears. | Sep 10, 2026 | 35d | 90% | No |
| Price statisticAn observed figure computed over several rows rather than one print — a delivered floor, a published median over a window. | Sep 10, 2026 | 35d | 90% | No |
| Inventory countHow many copies and listings stand on the book. What depth, supply and absorption are measured against. | Sep 10, 2026 | 35d | 70% | No |
| Guide priceA calculated market guide — a model of where the product is trading. Never a confirmed sale, and always marked Modelled. | Sep 7, 2026 | 38d | 60% | Yes |
Nearby in Legendary Treasures
and 6 more
$0.21, the modelled guide price, as of September 11, 2026.
Its printed rarity is Rare.
Toxicroak (#63/113) is from Legendary Treasures, released November 6, 2013.
A PSA 10 trades at about 162.6x the raw price, $34.15 against $0.21 raw, as of September 11, 2026.
Toxicroak evolves from Croagunk.
Toxicroak exists as a normal (non-holo) print and a reverse holo print.