Mega Greninja ex - 081 — 022/160Raw · Holo · Near MintEvery price, print, listing and score on this page belongs to this one printing in this one condition or grade — switch either dropdown and you are looking at a different one.
The condition or grade being priced. Each one is a separate instrument that trades at its own price, so choosing one replaces every figure on the page. “All conditions” and “All grades” are a union of the siblings — their tape, listings and volume are combined, with one sibling named as the reference for price and analytics.
▾UndervaluedUndervaluedThe market price sits below the blended fair-value band — not merely below its midpoint. The blend and its four components are on the FAIR VALUE card; the wider the band, the weaker this call.As of 09:36ZAs of 09:36ZThe market price, its 1D/7D/30D returns, the order book, the For Sale counts and today’s price bar as they stood when this page was built. The page itself is served from a shared cache, so this stamp — not the moment you loaded it — is how old these numbers are. Your browser re-reads them a moment after the page arrives and this line follows.
Mkt Price
$2.00item—
Last $1.87 · $3.86 delivered · 21d
Mkt Price$2.00 itemThe venue’s published daily market guide, which the venue itself declares MODELLED. Nothing is confirmed to have traded at it, no copy is listed at it, and it is not our estimate — it is theirs. It is quoted on the ITEM basis — the basis every wall tile is quoted on — and it is what the chart plots on a day with no print of its own. Last confirmed fixed-price sale: $1.87 at 2026-09-21T20:14:56.887Z. Delivered $3.86 with shipping. One trade, not a statistic — the figure above it is the day's median.
Fair Value
$4.24delivered
Band $0.00–$8.70
Fair Value$4.24 deliveredBand is ±105.5% of the point estimate: 1 of 4 components available (excluded: depth clearing, trend anchor — diverges from the others, auction clearing — 60% of weight reweighted away, 30% confidence penalty), on 4 observation(s) in the trailing 30d. Thin samples and missing components widen the band 3.99x over the raw component spread. No recent clearing price: too few prints in the last 120h to say what it is trading at now. A weighted blend of independent estimates, quoted DELIVERED — item plus required shipping — where Mkt Price beside it may be item basis. Read the band, not the point: its width is the model's own confidence.
LiquidityN/A
LiquidityN/AHow easily a position clears, scored 0–100. Four readings, equally weighted, each independently nullable: trade rate (the chance it trades today, from 30d units sold), trade breadth (how many of the last 30 days carried a trade), queue clearance (30d units sold against the units on the board) and seller dispersion (how many different people are selling it). A reading nobody can measure is absent and the rest reweight — never filled in with a zero.
30D Vol
4units
units · 2d so far
30D Vol4 units4 units over the last 2 days, on TCGplayer. Newest reading Sep 21, 2026. No earlier 30-day window to compare against.
For Sale
0units
live delivered asks
For Sale0 unitsEvery active fixed-price ask with a known delivered price. Auctions are a separate market and are never counted here.
Graded PopN/A
Graded PopN/AEvery slab reported by every grader we hold a census for, pooled. A share of what was submitted and kept — not the odds a copy grades 10.
No live auction bids — this market has no resting bid book.
Cross-Market BasisNo ask ladder was available for this instrument, so the ask side is empty. No bid side exists: this market has no resting bid book. There are no live auction bids and no published buylist for this instrument, so the bid side is empty rather than synthesized from asks, price history or a spread assumption.——
No active listings.
Ask depth—Ask depth—Every live fixed-price ask summed at its DELIVERED price — what clearing the whole visible book would cost. There is no bid side to set it against: no auction has a bid on it and no buylist quotes this instrument, and an absent side is never drawn as a zero.
One candle per UTC day — the finest grain this market recordsOne candle per ISO week (Mon–Sun), rolled up from the daily barsOne candle per calendar month, rolled up from the daily barsitem — the sale price alone, excluding shipping. This is the basis TCGplayer’s own market guide is published on, and the basis every wall tile, screener row and watchlist quote uses, so it is what the headline compares against.delivered — item + required shipping, the basis every alarm, floor and fair value uses. A print whose shipping the venue never stated has no delivered price and is excluded from the bar rather than counted at its item price; a day with no priced print falls back to the guide, which is an item price and says so.
How each period is drawn. Candles and bars show the full observed open/high/low/close; line and area show the close alone. The DATA does not change with the mark.
Price scale (linear, log or percent), auto-scaling, and the note on exactly how these bars were built.
Expand the chart to the whole viewport. Same bars and same drawings — only the room they get changes.
Cursor — chart crosshair, pan and zoomTrend line — two pointsHorizontal line — one click, priced at the axisRay — two points, extended forwardZone — two cornersFibonacci retracement — anchor the move, start to endNote — click, then typeMeasure — drag for change, percent and barsMagnet — snap each new anchor to the nearest bar's open, high, low or close, so a line lands on an observation rather than between two of them.Nothing to clear — there are no drawings on this card.DRW
as of Oct 12, 2026 · UTC
history since Sep 2026
Mega Greninja ex - 081 — 022/160 · 1DMkt$2.00·0.0%guide priceitem priceLast $1.87 · Sep 21 ($3.86 delivered)
Fair valueUNDERVALUEDThe cheapest delivered ask sits more than 5% below the blended fair-value estimate (FAIR_VALUE_AT_FAIR_TOLERANCE_PCT).
Fair value $4.24 delivered; the cheapest delivered ask is 8.9% below it$4.24delivered-8.9%The cheapest delivered ask ($3.86) against the blended fair-value estimate.top 37%top 37% of 6,176 tracked on FV gap · Ranked against every tracked card as of Oct 12, 2026; the number above is live.
$3.86
Absorption
—Building historyToo few readings of the book to tell a drawdown from noise. The count is on the card — see the note below.
1 reading of this book so far, one per 1 day. The direction reads once there are enough of them to tell a drawdown from noise.
Method▾
Each reading counts the cheapest asks on offer at that instant: how many copies they hold, across how many asks, from how many sellers. It is the cheap end of the book, not the book — the venue lists more, and those asks are not counted here. Sold units are confirmed prints from the live tape over the same span, and are shown only when the tape reaches back past the first reading.
No accumulation or distribution verdict is offered. A rise or fall in a fixed-size window onto the cheapest asks is a fact about the window: the copies inside it grow when multi-copy sellers price into the cheap end, whether the book behind it is growing, shrinking or flat. The verdict returns when a reading carries the venue’s own total for the book rather than the size of our sample.
Supply
▲Nothing listedNo active fixed-price ask carries a known delivered price right now. Anyone who wants one has to bid for it or wait.
0 units listed — 0.0d of stock at the 30-day pace of 2.0/day.
Listed0 unitsActive fixed-price asks with a known delivered price. Auctions are a separate market and never enter this count.Sold · 2d · 2.0/day4 unitsUnits over the last 2 days, on TCGplayer. Newest reading 2026-09-21.
Print scarcity
•Set not coveredA set needs at least three cards carrying a price, a graded population and a pull rate at once before its print scale means anything. this set does not reach that, so there is nothing to rank this card against.
A set needs at least three cards carrying a price, a graded population and a pull rate at once before its print scale means anything. this set does not reach that, so there is nothing to rank this card against.
LightModerateHeavy
Method▾
Graded population is print run × how often anyone bothers grading it, and the second factor moves with VALUE — so population is divided by price^0.606, the elasticity fitted across 3,826 cards that carry a population, a price and a pull rate at once. That normalised count is turned into a SET pack scale using the card’s pull rate (every card in a set is an independent read on how many packs exist, pooled by median), then brought back down to this card by its own pull rate. The band is a tertile of the result across every card that clears the gates.
Nobody has ever published a Pokémon print run, and this does not recover one — it is an ORDER, not a count. It reads surviving graded supply across PSA, CGC and ACE, so ungraded and sealed stock are invisible to it. What it is checked against: the model puts Black & White at the bottom of the catalog and modern Scarlet & Violet at the top, which is where the smallest and largest print runs actually are.
Competitive play—No rulingNo Standard legality ruling on file, and in none of the 22,383 Standard decklists in the last 30 days.
No Standard legality ruling on file, and in none of the 22,383 Standard decklists across 338 events, last 30 days.
30d sold4 unitsUnits of THIS printing sold in the 30 days ending October 13, 2026, against the 30 days before that (0). Demand at a table and demand in the market are different measurements; this is the second one.Meta vs priceNot enough history (0 weeks)Spearman rank correlation of weekly share against weekly median price over the trailing 26 weeks, on the weeks carrying both. Printed only at 8 weeks or more; below that the count is stated instead of a coefficient off a handful of readings.
94.5% of card lines in these decklists matched a card in our catalog; an unmatched line is never counted. Online events only, not Regionals or Worlds.
Why It's Moving
What changedWhat changedThe observable that moved, stated before any reason for it — the fact the rest of this panel has to account for.
Modelled guide price moved +0.0% over the trailing 7 days and +0.0% over 30 days, now at $2.00. Active TCGplayer listings fell 0% over the same 7 days to 0.
Primary explanationPrimary explanationThe reading the evidence best supports. It is an explanation, never a forecast, and it is only as good as the Evidence row two lines down.
Primary read: no single factor dominates; the composite score is being driven by broad, low-amplitude movement across most inputs.
AlternativeAlternativeA competing explanation the SAME evidence would also support. It is printed even when the primary looks strong: an explanation with no stated alternative is a story, not an analysis.
Alternative explanation: with only 0 distinct sellers/observations in the trailing window, the move could just as easily be sampling noise rather than a durable shift.
EvidenceEvidenceWhat kind of fact this row is. A completed sale, a live ask and a calculated guide price are three different weights of evidence about the same number, and this column is the difference between them.
ObservedObservedThe day the fact was read — not the day the underlying event happened, and not today. An old date is an old reading.
AgeAgeHow long ago this row was read, as of the moment the page was computed.
ConfidenceConfidenceHow much weight this row carries where it feeds a model, from the resolver that matched it. Lower means a looser match or a thinner source, and a low-confidence row is reweighted rather than dropped.
ModelledModelledYes = a CALCULATED value (a guide price, an estimate); No = something actually observed (a sale, a listing, a census count). A modelled row is evidence about a model, not about the market.
9—
8—
Market price
$3.86
What the market is actually asking right now — the cheapest delivered price, or the newest confirmed print when no ladder exists. The card’s verdict is where this line falls against the band.
$4.24Fair value$4.24The blend’s point estimate — the weighted centre of the four component reads listed below. It is the middle of a band, not a target: read the band’s width before the point.
Sales VWAP$4.24Trend anchor$2.00
$0.00The bottom of the stated fair-value band — the cheap end of the blend, not a floor and not a support level. A wider band is the model saying it is less sure, so the two ends are more informative together than the point between them.$8.70The top of the stated fair-value band — the rich end of the blend, not a ceiling and not a target. A wider band is the model saying it is less sure, so the two ends are more informative together than the point between them.
Sales VWAP$4.24100%Sales VWAP$4.24Time-decayed, unit-weighted mean delivered price of confirmed prints — the last 48h dominate.Weight 100% of the blend, after reweighting away the inputs with no evidence.Depth clearingN/A—Depth clearingN/AUnavailable in the trailing 30d window — reweighted away, not defaulted.No evidence for this input, so it carries no weight — the blend is the other components, reweighted.Trend anchor$2.000%Trend anchor$2.00Sits further from the decayed print VWAP than one print-dispersion unit — a trailing average of a price the market has left behind, reweighted away.Weight 0% of the blend, after reweighting away the inputs with no evidence.Auction clearingN/A—Auction clearingN/AUnavailable in the trailing 30d window — reweighted away, not defaulted.No evidence for this input, so it carries no weight — the blend is the other components, reweighted.
±102.6% band · 2 of 4 inputs · 4 obs / 30dBand is ±105.5% of the point estimate: 1 of 4 components available (excluded: depth clearing, trend anchor — diverges from the others, auction clearing — 60% of weight reweighted away, 30% confidence penalty), on 4 observation(s) in the trailing 30d. Thin samples and missing components widen the band 3.99x over the raw component spread. No recent clearing price: too few prints in the last 120h to say what it is trading at now.
›8.9% under fair — buy at $3.24 delivered.
Market safety
—No bookNo visible asks, so there is no control cost to band.
Nothing is listed for sale, so there is no book for one buyer to move.
Mechanics▾
VenuesTCGplayer
The absorption ladder walks the visible delivered-price ask book cheapest-first: what each slice of the book costs, the ask it leaves marginal, and how far that sits from the last price the card actually traded at. Manipulation risk is the worse of two reads — how many days of this card’s own turnover it would take to absorb the cost of control, and whether the whole buyable book fits inside a single ordinary order.
Flow
—Thin tapeToo little sold-unit evidence to read a pace from — see the note below.
—
Insufficient data
Only 2 days of sold history — a full 30-day window is needed to read a pace.
Method▾
Daily units are the venue's own sold-quantity history, expanded off each bucket's real span, plus confirmed prints from the other side of the market. Prints come from the live sales tape at delivered prices. The floor is the cheapest delivered ask (item + required shipping) across venues — the same one FAIR VALUE prices against.
Bottom line
—No callUnder half the model had evidence, so the score is a statement about the inputs that reported rather than about the card. No call until more of them do.
68/100 across 1 of 11 inputs. For: the cheapest ask is 8.9% under fair. That is under half the model, so no call is made on it.
Value vs fair68Value vs fair68/100The cheapest delivered ask against the blended fair-value estimate, two points per percent. Above 50 the card is trading under what the evidence says it is worth. Withheld entirely when fair value declares itself UNKNOWN — a discount measured against an untrustworthy anchor is not a discount.Carries 17% of the composite.
Value vs fair17%68The cheapest delivered ask against the blended fair-value estimate, two points per percent. Above 50 the card is trading under what the evidence says it is worth. Withheld entirely when fair value declares itself UNKNOWN — a discount measured against an untrustworthy anchor is not a discount.Price trend13%no readingNo price history in the 7- and 30-day windows, or no confirmed print in 30 days — the line is the relay’s guide.Money flow11%no readingNo confirmed prints with a contemporaneous ask to classify against.Book pressure11%no readingNeeds a 30-day inventory change, or book counts spanning ≥3 days that move at all and rest on ≥8 listings. Collection of `inventory_observations` began 2026-09-02.Liquidity9%no reading
The bottom line is a weighted mean of the signals that reported, renormalised so their weights sum to 1. Nothing defaults to a neutral 50: an input with no evidence is reweighted away and its absence is charged as a confidence penalty. Risk rows (manipulation, concentration, reprint) enter inverted. Data quality carries no weight at all — it decides whether the verdict may be spoken, because knowing a lot about a card is not a reason to buy it. Competitive meta sits OUTSIDE the weighted mean as a capped bonus added after it: a card nobody plays is never marked down for that, and a card the meta is built on can be marked up for it.
AttacksWW Ninja SpinnerCost: W · WNinja Spinner (120+)
You may put a Water Energy attached to this Pokémon into your hand and have this attack do 80 more damage.
Retreat1
EvidenceThe specific observations the explanation rests on. If this row is thin, treat the explanation as thin — it is the only thing holding it up.
Evidence: item-basis daily bars, TCGplayer active listings, absorption read ("Insufficient data: 1 inventory observation(s) in the trailing 30d window (need >= 4).").
ConfidenceConfidenceHow much weight to put on the primary explanation, given how much of the evidence actually resolved. It qualifies the row above; it never adds to it.
Confidence: 0%, based on 23 days of observations.
What would disprove itWhat would disprove itThe observation that would break the primary explanation. It is what makes the reading falsifiable rather than unfalsifiable — and it is the thing to watch for next.
This read would be wrong if active listings rebound above 0 while sold median keeps falling.
CatalogCard identity: set, number, rarity, finish, release date. It dates from the printing itself, so an old reading here is expected and is not staleness.
Feb 1, 2000
26.7y
98%
No
Live askA copy offered for sale right now. An ask is what a seller wants, not what anyone paid — it bounds the price from above until it clears.
Sep 22, 2026
20d
90%
No
Guide priceA calculated market guide — a model of where the product is trading. Never a confirmed sale, and always marked Modelled.
Oct 12, 2026
1d
90%
Yes
Price statisticAn observed figure computed over several rows rather than one print — a delivered floor, a published median over a window.
Sep 22, 2026
20d
90%
No
Confirmed saleA completed transaction at a known price — the strongest evidence on this page. Prices are delivered (item + required shipping).
Sep 21, 2026
22d
85%
No
Inventory countHow many copies and listings stand on the book. What depth, supply and absorption are measured against.
Sep 22, 2026
20d
70%
No
Raw · Holo · Near MintWhat every row above was gathered for — one printing, in this one finish and condition or grade. Change either switcher in the header and you are reading a different one; the page's own URL is the address of exactly this one.pq-quant-2026.10.0The version of the scoring and analytics formulas that produced everything on this page. Two figures computed under different versions are not comparable, which is why the version is stated rather than assumed.
Fewer than two of the four participation readings could be measured — no trade count, and no book to read a queue or a seller base off.
Manipulation risk9%no readingNo visible ask book, so there is no control cost to band.
Relative strength7%no readingThe wall projection has ranked fewer than 20 cards on 30-day return, so a percentile here would be a rank of a handful dressed up as a market.
Scarcity7%no readingNeither scarcity read is available: no pull rate on file for this card’s rarity, and no print-scale estimate for its set (or the set is inside its first 12 months, where graded population has not accumulated yet).
Grading upside6%no readingNo priced grade outcomes, so expected return is unknown.
Seller concentration5%no readingThe venue attributes no seller identity to these asks.
Reprint risk5%no readingPrint status is unestablished — no shelf observation and no recorded reprint event.