Shadow Rider Calyrex VMAX — TG18/TG30Raw · Holo · Near MintEvery price, print, listing and score on this page belongs to this one printing in this one condition or grade — switch either dropdown and you are looking at a different one.
A different printing of this card — a reverse holo, a promo stamp, another language. Choosing one NAVIGATES: every price, print, listing and score on the page belongs to that printing instead, because they are separate instruments that trade at different prices.The condition or grade being priced. Each one is a separate instrument that trades at its own price, so choosing one replaces every figure on the page. “All conditions” and “All grades” are a union of the siblings — their tape, listings and volume are combined, with one sibling named as the reference for price and analytics.
▁Floor FormingFloor FormingPrice is stabilising near a drawdown low, volatility is cooling and depth has stopped thinning. A floor being tested — not yet one that has held.•At Fair ValueAt Fair ValueThe market price is inside the blended fair-value band, so no direction is called. A wide band puts more prices inside it, which is why the band is shown and not just the point.⇈AccumulationAccumulationBoth directions agree over the flow window: net dollars cleared at or above the prevailing ask, AND the top-decile-notional prints skewed the same way. Direction of confirmed prints only — never a forecast.1D·ask0.0%1D return (ask-based)0.0%No print in this window — every bar closed on the same provider guide value, so the sold-price reading would be a confident 0%. This is the delivered ask floor's own change over the same window instead: a real move nobody has yet paid, not a sale.7D+1.7%7D return+1.7%Change in the headline market price against the close 7 observed bars back. Bars exist only for days this card actually traded, so the span can be longer than the label's calendar reading.30D-3.8%30D return-3.8%Change in the headline market price against the close 30 observed bars back. Bars exist only for days this card actually traded, so the span can be longer than the label's calendar reading.As of 03:24ZAs of 03:24ZThe market price, its 1D/7D/30D returns, the order book, the For Sale counts and today’s price bar as they stood when this page was built. The page itself is served from a shared cache, so this stamp — not the moment you loaded it — is how old these numbers are. Your browser re-reads them a moment after the page arrives and this line follows.
Mkt Price
$10.91item·0.0%
Last $10.74 · 1d
Mkt Price$10.91 itemThe venue’s published daily market guide, which the venue itself declares MODELLED. Nothing is confirmed to have traded at it, no copy is listed at it, and it is not our estimate — it is theirs. It is quoted on the ITEM basis — the basis every wall tile is quoted on — and it is what the chart plots on a day with no print of its own. Last confirmed fixed-price sale: $10.74 at 2026-10-12T23:26:11.503Z. Shipping was free, so delivered is the same number. One trade, not a statistic — the figure above it is the day's median.
Fair Value
$10.95delivered
≈$10.95 item · Band $10.43–$11.46
Fair Value$10.95 deliveredBand is ±4.7% of the point estimate: 3 of 4 components available (excluded: auction clearing — 15% of weight reweighted away, 8% confidence penalty), on 44 observation(s) in the trailing 30d. Thin samples and missing components widen the band 1.48x over the raw component spread. No recent clearing price: too few prints in the last 120h to say what it is trading at now. A weighted blend of independent estimates, quoted DELIVERED — item plus required shipping — where Mkt Price beside it may be item basis. Read the band, not the point: its width is the model's own confidence. On the ITEM basis TCGplayer’s guide is quoted on, that is about $10.95 — this card’s own prints carry a median delivered-minus-item wedge of $0.00, measured day by day, never an assumed postage rate.
Liquidity
87/100
Good liquidity
Liquidity87 /100How easily a position clears, scored 0–100. Four readings, equally weighted, each independently nullable: trade rate (the chance it trades today, from 30d units sold), trade breadth (how many of the last 30 days carried a trade), queue clearance (30d units sold against the units on the board) and seller dispersion (how many different people are selling it). A reading nobody can measure is absent and the rest reweight — never filled in with a zero.
30D Vol
100units▲+16.3%
units · vs prior 30d
30D Vol100 units100 units over the last 30 days, on eBay and TCGplayer. Newest reading Oct 12, 2026. Against 86 in the 30 days before.
For Sale
43units
41 sellers
For Sale43 unitsEvery active fixed-price ask with a known delivered price. Auctions are a separate market and are never counted here.
Graded Pop
1,839▲+2.1%
across 3 graders
Graded Pop1,839Every slab reported by every grader we hold a census for, pooled. A share of what was submitted and kept — not the odds a copy grades 10.
No live auction bids — this market has no resting bid book.
Cross-Market BasisAsks are live fixed-price listings at delivered prices (item + required shipping). No bid side exists: this market has no resting bid book. There are no live auction bids and no published buylist for this instrument, so the bid side is empty rather than synthesized from asks, price history or a spread assumption.——
AskSize
Ask sideLive fixed-price listings, priced DELIVERED — item plus required shipping. Cheapest first; a listing whose shipping is unknown has no delivered price and is excluded rather than guessed at.
$10.473
$10.47 · 3 units3 cum.Ask size at this price, and the running total through it from the cheapest ask — 3 units are buyable at or under $10.47 delivered. The shaded staircase behind the row IS that running total.
$10.481
$10.48 · 1 unit4 cum.Ask size at this price, and the running total through it from the cheapest ask — 4 units are buyable at or under $10.48 delivered. The shaded staircase behind the row IS that running total.
$10.511
$10.51 · 1 unit5 cum.Ask size at this price, and the running total through it from the cheapest ask — 5 units are buyable at or under $10.51 delivered. The shaded staircase behind the row IS that running total.
Ask depth$498.43Ask depth$498.43Every live fixed-price ask summed at its DELIVERED price — what clearing the whole visible book would cost. There is no bid side to set it against: no auction has a bid on it and no buylist quotes this instrument, and an absent side is never drawn as a zero.
One candle per UTC day — the finest grain this market recordsOne candle per ISO week (Mon–Sun), rolled up from the daily barsOne candle per calendar month, rolled up from the daily barsitem — the sale price alone, excluding shipping. This is the basis TCGplayer’s own market guide is published on, and the basis every wall tile, screener row and watchlist quote uses, so it is what the headline compares against.delivered — item + required shipping, the basis every alarm, floor and fair value uses. A print whose shipping the venue never stated has no delivered price and is excluded from the bar rather than counted at its item price; a day with no priced print falls back to the guide, which is an item price and says so.
How each period is drawn. Candles and bars show the full observed open/high/low/close; line and area show the close alone. The DATA does not change with the mark.
Price scale (linear, log or percent), auto-scaling, and the note on exactly how these bars were built.
Expand the chart to the whole viewport. Same bars and same drawings — only the room they get changes.
Cursor — chart crosshair, pan and zoomTrend line — two pointsHorizontal line — one click, priced at the axisRay — two points, extended forwardZone — two cornersFibonacci retracement — anchor the move, start to endNote — click, then typeMeasure — drag for change, percent and barsMagnet — snap each new anchor to the nearest bar's open, high, low or close, so a line lands on an observation rather than between two of them.Nothing to clear — there are no drawings on this card.DRW
Fair valueFAIRThe cheapest delivered ask is within 5% of the blended fair-value estimate (FAIR_VALUE_AT_FAIR_TOLERANCE_PCT).
Fair value $10.95 delivered, about $10.95 on the item basis; the cheapest delivered ask is 4.3% below it$10.95delivered-4.3%The cheapest delivered ask ($10.47) against the blended fair-value estimate.top 55%top 55% of 6,071 tracked on FV gap · Ranked against every tracked card as of Oct 13, 2026; the number above is live.
$10.47
Chase
—No pack priceThe pull rate is in hand, but no sealed product from this set carries a price we can divide into a per-pack cost — so the cost of ripping cannot be stated.
1 in 24 packs for ultra rare, shared by 16 cards in Astral Radiance Trainer Gallery — but we track no sealed product for Astral Radiance Trainer Gallery, so a pack has no price to divide the odds into.
Breakdown
RarityUltra RareRarityUltra RareThe provider's own spelling, verbatim. The odds row and this printing have to carry the same string or no estimate is made — a mismatch must produce nothing rather than another rarity's rate.Slot odds1 in 24 packs
Supply
•Ample supply43 listed units against a 3.3/day pace is 12.9 days of stock. Under 7d reads tight, 30d or more reads heavy.
43 units listed across 41 sellers — 12.9d of stock at the 30-day pace of 3.3/day.
PopulationAll graders pooled1,839Every slab reported by every grader we hold a census for, as each of them states its own total. A share of what was submitted and kept — never the odds a copy grades 10. The bars below sum to 1,841, not 1,839: a grader can report a pooled rung and its qualified variants separately, so the stated total is the authority and the bars are what is chartable.ACE96Slabs ACE itself reports for this card. Switching tabs changes the whole chart below to that grader's own grade curve.CGC466Slabs CGC itself reports for this card. Switching tabs changes the whole chart below to that grader's own grade curve.PSA1,277Slabs PSA itself reports for this card. Switching tabs changes the whole chart below to that grader's own grade curve. The bars below sum to 1,279, not 1,277: a grader can report a pooled rung and its qualified variants separately, so the stated total is the authority and the bars are what is chartable.
1.2k1010 — 1,195 slabs, 64.9% of the 1,841 charted hereACE 53 · CGC 233 (Gem Mint 10 · Perfect 10 · Pristine 10) · PSA 909249.59.5 — 24 slabs, 1.3% of the 1,841 charted hereCGC 2444799 — 447 slabs, 24.3% of the 1,841 charted hereACE 36 · CGC 122 · PSA 289508.58.5 — 50 slabs, 2.7% of the 1,841 charted hereCGC 49 · PSA 17488 — 74 slabs, 4.0% of the 1,841 charted hereACE 3 · CGC 17 · PSA 54107.57.5 — 10 slabs, 0.5% of the 1,841 charted hereCGC 101777 — 17 slabs, 0.9% of the 1,841 charted hereACE 3 · CGC 4 · PSA 1046.56.5 — 4 slabs, 0.2% of the 1,841 charted hereCGC 4966 — 9 slabs, 0.5% of the 1,841 charted herePSA 9455 — 4 slabs, 0.2% of the 1,841 charted hereACE 1 · PSA 3344 — 3 slabs, 0.2% of the 1,841 charted herePSA 34AuthAuth — 4 slabs, 0.2% of the 1,841 charted hereCGC 3 · PSA 1
Listed · 41 sellers · $498.4343 unitsActive fixed-price asks with a known delivered price. Auctions are a separate market and never enter this count.Sold · 30d · 3.3/day100 unitsUnits over the last 30 days, on eBay and TCGplayer, against 86 in the 30 days before. Newest reading 2026-10-12.Graded · ACE 96 · CGC 466 · PSA 1,2771,839 slabsEvery slab reported by every grader we hold a census for, pooled. A share of what was submitted and kept — not the odds your copy grades 10.
ScarcityVery scarceA named card at this rarity takes 1 in 390 packs on average, which is the second fifth of every card we hold pack odds for. The bands are the card-weighted quintiles of that population, not thresholds we picked.
1 in 390 packs for one copy of this card1 in 390packs
Half of all openers get one within 271 packs
Rarest of 2 hit tiers in Astral Radiance Trainer GalleryEvery tier on this ladder comes out of the same pack under the same study, so the position is a like-for-like comparison. It ranks NAMED cards, not tiers: a 12-card tier and a 1-card tier with the same slot odds are not the same difficulty.
Competitive play▼Not Standard-legalPublished as not legal in Standard, and in none of the 22,383 Standard decklists in the last 30 days. Rotated out of Standard on April 5, 2024.
Not legal in Standard, and in none of the 22,383 Standard decklists across 338 events, last 30 days.
Rotation runwayRotated April 5, 2024Mark E left Standard on that date. Standard rotation dates are curated by hand from official announcements; a mark with no announced date carries none rather than a guess.30d sold96 units (+8% vs prior 30d)Units of THIS printing sold in the 30 days ending October 13, 2026, against the 30 days before that (89). Demand at a table and demand in the market are different measurements; this is the second one.
Why It's Moving
What changedWhat changedThe observable that moved, stated before any reason for it — the fact the rest of this panel has to account for.
Modelled guide price moved +1.7% over the trailing 7 days and -3.8% over 30 days, now at $10.91. Active TCGplayer listings fell 0% over the same 7 days to 0.
Primary explanationPrimary explanationThe reading the evidence best supports. It is an explanation, never a forecast, and it is only as good as the Evidence row two lines down.
Primary read: Liquidity scored 87/100 (composite weight 21%). — the largest single contributor to the current FLOOR_FORMING regime read.
AlternativeAlternativeA competing explanation the SAME evidence would also support. It is printed even when the primary looks strong: an explanation with no stated alternative is a story, not an analysis.
Alternative explanation: Relative strength scored 16/100 (composite weight 21%).. With 41 distinct sellers/observations in the trailing window, either read is defensible — this is not a high-conviction single-cause move.
EvidenceEvidenceWhat kind of fact this row is. A completed sale, a live ask and a calculated guide price are three different weights of evidence about the same number, and this column is the difference between them.
ObservedObservedThe day the fact was read — not the day the underlying event happened, and not today. An old date is an old reading.
AgeAgeHow long ago this row was read, as of the moment the page was computed.
ConfidenceConfidenceHow much weight this row carries where it feeds a model, from the resolver that matched it. Lower means a looser match or a thinner source, and a low-confidence row is reweighted rather than dropped.
ModelledModelledYes = a CALCULATED value (a guide price, an estimate); No = something actually observed (a sale, a listing, a census count). A modelled row is evidence about a model, not about the market.
What the market is actually asking right now — the cheapest delivered price, or the newest confirmed print when no ladder exists. The card’s verdict is where this line falls against the band.
$10.95Fair value$10.95The blend’s point estimate — the weighted centre of the four component reads listed below. It is the middle of a band, not a target: read the band’s width before the point.
$10.43The bottom of the stated fair-value band — the cheap end of the blend, not a floor and not a support level. A wider band is the model saying it is less sure, so the two ends are more informative together than the point between them.$11.46The top of the stated fair-value band — the rich end of the blend, not a ceiling and not a target. A wider band is the model saying it is less sure, so the two ends are more informative together than the point between them.
Sales VWAP$11.1747%Sales VWAP$11.17Time-decayed, unit-weighted mean delivered price of confirmed prints — the last 48h dominate.Weight 47% of the blend, after reweighting away the inputs with no evidence.Depth clearing$10.4829%Depth clearing$10.48VWAP of the cheapest tranche of the live delivered-ask ladder — the price at which real fixed-price supply actually clears.Weight 29% of the blend, after reweighting away the inputs with no evidence.Trend anchor$11.0724%Trend anchor$11.07Last non-null trend value (SMA) of the price series, in delivered terms.Weight 24% of the blend, after reweighting away the inputs with no evidence.Auction clearingN/A—Auction clearingN/AUnavailable in the trailing 30d window — reweighted away, not defaulted.No evidence for this input, so it carries no weight — the blend is the other components, reweighted.
≈$10.95 item basis · ±4.7% band · 3 of 4 inputs · 44 obs / 30dBand is ±4.7% of the point estimate: 3 of 4 components available (excluded: auction clearing — 15% of weight reweighted away, 8% confidence penalty), on 44 observation(s) in the trailing 30d. Thin samples and missing components widen the band 1.48x over the raw component spread. No recent clearing price: too few prints in the last 120h to say what it is trading at now.
›Priced at fair — cheapest delivered ask $10.47.
Market safety
▲Elevated riskA spike here outlives the 7-day window and not the 30-day one: it would move this week's return, and an ordinary month of this card's trading absorbs it.
$498.43 clears the cheap side — 14 days of turnover (0.48 book-months, 41 asks).
Book
10%·$52.40·$10.51 ask-5%Sweeping 10% of the visible book costs $52.40The next unbought ask after that sweep sits at $10.51 ask — -5% against today's cheapest.Visible asks only, at delivered prices. An unshipped listing has no delivered price and is not in this ladder.50%·$263.59·$11.50 ask+4%Sweeping 50% of the visible book costs $263.59The next unbought ask after that sweep sits at $11.50 ask — +4% against today's cheapest.Visible asks only, at delivered prices. An unshipped listing has no delivered price and is not in this ladder.80%·$406.30·$12.02 ask+9%Sweeping 80% of the visible book costs $406.30The next unbought ask after that sweep sits at $12.02 ask — +9% against today's cheapest.Visible asks only, at delivered prices. An unshipped listing has no delivered price and is not in this ladder.Book $498.43Total notional on the visible ask ladder, and the largest single seller's share of it. A book that is mostly one seller's inventory is one decision away from moving.Best ask vs fair · $10.47 vs $10.95-4.4%Best ask vs fair-4.4%$10.47 vs $10.95
Mechanics▾
Cost to +50%$498.43
clears the entire visible book
Days to absorb14
43 units to control
Book breadth1 level
43 units on the board
Book / 30d sold0.48x
30d traded $1,033
VenuesTCGplayer
The absorption ladder walks the visible delivered-price ask book cheapest-first: what each slice of the book costs, the ask it leaves marginal, and how far that sits from the last price the card actually traded at. Manipulation risk is the worse of two reads — how many days of this card’s own turnover it would take to absorb the cost of control, and whether the whole buyable book fits inside a single ordinary order.
Flow
—SteadyThis week's daily sold units overlap the middle half of the rest of the window, so no change in pace is separable from the noise. Trading at its own normal rate.
22 sold in 7d, 0.9× the 30d pace — 30d prints clear at $10.24 median, -2.2% vs the $10.47 floor.
This week 22 · last week 26 · 30d/wk 23
Recent prints
$10.74+2.6%1d ago$10.74 delivered, 1 unit, 2026-10-12T23:26:11.503ZMeasured against today's cheapest delivered ask — a print above it is information, not bad news.$12.94+23.6%2d ago$12.94 delivered, 1 unit, 2026-10-11T22:15:13.750ZMeasured against today's cheapest delivered ask — a print above it is information, not bad news.$10.85+3.6%2d ago$10.85 delivered, 1 unit, 2026-10-11T17:04:32.463ZMeasured against today's cheapest delivered ask — a print above it is information, not bad news.$9.98
Method▾
Daily units are the venue's own sold-quantity history, expanded off each bucket's real span, plus confirmed prints from the other side of the market. Prints come from the live sales tape at delivered prices. The floor is the cheapest delivered ask (item + required shipping) across venues — the same one FAIR VALUE prices against.
Over 30d: 44 confirmed print(s) (2 with no contemporaneous ask reference, excluded from net flow); net flow +$417.35 across 40 buy-side vs 3 sell-side unit(s); large prints (>= $12.88) were 15% of notional and skewed buy-side -> ACCUMULATING.
Bottom line
—Hold53/100 on the weighted composite: at or above 65 is a buy, at or below 35 a sell, and everything between is a hold.
53/100 across 9 of 11 inputs. For: liquidity reads 87/100. Against: it sits in the top 84% of ranked cards on 30-day return.
Liquidity87Liquidity87/100Four equally-weighted readings of what counterparties did: the chance it trades today, how many of the last 30 days carried a trade, 30-day units sold against the units on the board, and how many different people are selling it. A reading nobody can measure is absent and the rest reweight.Carries 9% of the composite.Money flow80Money flow80/100Confirmed prints split into buy-side and sell-side against the prevailing ask, on a log scale — one decade of imbalance earns the full swing, because 100:1 is a thinner sample saying what 10:1 already said.Carries 11% of the composite.Relative strength16Relative strength16/100This card’s 30-day return as a percentile of every tracked card that has one. 50 is "moved with the market". Declines to speak until the ranked universe is large enough to mean it.Carries 7% of the composite.Value vs fair59Value vs fair59/100The cheapest delivered ask against the blended fair-value estimate, two points per percent. Above 50 the card is trading under what the evidence says it is worth. Withheld entirely when fair value declares itself UNKNOWN — a discount measured against an untrustworthy anchor is not a discount.Carries 17% of the composite.Price trend40Price trend40/1007-day and 30-day returns read against the noise of this card’s own series. Above 50 the price moved further than its own noise explains; below 50 it moved the other way. Withheld on a window with no confirmed print, where the line is the relay’s published guide and the return would be a reading of its revision schedule.Carries 13% of the composite.Scarcity39Scarcity39/100How few of this card exist, as a percentile of every card we can read. Prefers PRINT SCARCITY’s estimate — graded population with the value confound divided out, turned into a print scale by the pull rate — and falls back to packs-per-copy alone where that cannot be read. Scarce is oriented as GOOD, on the theory that thinner supply supports a price. Weighted low on purpose: scarcity is fixed at print and the market has had years to price it in, so this is a structural prior rather than an edge.Carries 7% of the composite.Manipulation risk55Manipulation risk55/100RISK-ORIENTED. What it costs to walk the visible book up 50%, against both real trailing volume and one buyer’s cheque book. High here is bad, and it enters the composite inverted.Carries 9% of the composite, inverted: 55 risk entered as 45.Book pressure47Book pressure47/100Supply leaving the market or refilling it. Prefers the 30-day inventory change; falls back to the venue's own listing count over the readings held, capped tighter because a shorter window is weaker evidence. Withheld on a count that never moves, or on a book so small that one listing's arrival pins the percent to a rail.Carries 11% of the composite.Grading upside49Grading upside49/100Best expected return across grading vendors, half a point per percent — the optionality on top of the raw thesis, never the thesis itself.Carries 6% of the composite.
9 of 11 inputs · 90% weight · -5% confidence▾
Not reading yet: seller concentration, reprint risk.
Liquidity9%87Four equally-weighted readings of what counterparties did: the chance it trades today, how many of the last 30 days carried a trade, 30-day units sold against the units on the board, and how many different people are selling it. A reading nobody can measure is absent and the rest reweight.Money flow11%80Confirmed prints split into buy-side and sell-side against the prevailing ask, on a log scale — one decade of imbalance earns the full swing, because 100:1 is a thinner sample saying what 10:1 already said.Relative strength7%16This card’s 30-day return as a percentile of every tracked card that has one. 50 is "moved with the market". Declines to speak until the ranked universe is large enough to mean it.Value vs fair17%59The cheapest delivered ask against the blended fair-value estimate, two points per percent. Above 50 the card is trading under what the evidence says it is worth. Withheld entirely when fair value declares itself UNKNOWN — a discount measured against an untrustworthy anchor is not a discount.
Slot odds1 in 24 packsTCGplayer (Authentication Center) — no sample size published. Measured May 27, 2022, 1,601d before this reading. 4.10% of packs (Trainer Gallery V, VMAX or Trainer) (Authentication Center sample). Community measurement, not official odds: nobody publishes physical pack rates.
Cards at rarity16 in Astral Radiance Trainer GalleryCards at rarity16 in Astral Radiance Trainer GalleryCounted from the catalog: 16 printings in Astral Radiance Trainer Gallery carry the rarity "Ultra Rare".
This card1 in 390 packs±30%This card1 in 390 packsThe rarity’s measured odds, split evenly across the 16 cards printed at it. That even split is the estimate's weakest link, and it is bounded rather than hand-waved: a published 8,000-pack study put two Special Illustration Rares from one set at 1 in 309 and 1 in 393 packs — same rarity, same set — so a per-card figure is good to about ±30%.
Method▾
P(this card, per pack) = the published odds of its RARITY appearing, split evenly across the cards printed at that rarity in the set. Expected packs is 1/p, the mean of the geometric distribution. The range plots expected pack spend ÷ the single's delivered price on a log axis centred on parity. Pack price is a sealed product's own price divided by its stated pack count, and is computed only where that count carries a source. The single is the cheapest delivered ask (item + required shipping) across venues — the same figure FAIR VALUE prices against.
The Pokémon Company has never published physical booster odds in any region — the only official drop-rate page covers the digital TCG Live packs and lists no probabilities at all. Every figure here is a hand-entered citation of a published pack-opening study, and each one names its source and sample on hover.
Absorption
—Building historyToo few readings of the book to tell a drawdown from noise. The count is on the card — see the note below.
24 readings of this book so far, one per 1 day, over 29d. The direction reads once there are enough of them to tell a drawdown from noise.
Method▾
Each reading takes the venue's own listing count for this card in this condition — the whole book — at that instant. The direction is classified by the platform's absorption reading over that series: a book drawn down with demand behind it reads as accumulation, one that refills after a drawdown reads as distribution. Copies and sellers come from the cheapest asks we sample, not from the book, and are labelled as such. Sold units are confirmed prints from the live tape over the same span, and are shown only when the tape reaches back past the first reading.
The direction is classified over the platform-standard 30-day trailing window. That window is a scope, not a history: it contains exactly the readings counted on this card and no others — and only readings that counted the venue’s own book, never a sampled one trended against a counted one.
Slab premium
▲Strong slab premiumThe dearest priced rung is PSA 10 at $60.50, 5.8× the $10.47 raw reference (cheapest delivered ask).
A PSA 10 is worth $60.50 — 5.8× the $10.47 raw cheapest delivered ask.
Dearest slab per grading company
PSA 10$60.505.8×PSA 10 — $60.50, 5.8× raw$53.19 · EBAY · 2026-09-30 · $59.99 · EBAY · 2026-09-29 · $69.95 · EBAY · 2026-09-26 +13 more print(s)CGC 10$42.004.0×CGC 10 — $42.00, 4.0× raw$44.00 · FANATICS · 2026-09-18 · $39.99 · EBAY · 2026-09-06TAG 10$30.282.9×TAG 10 — $30.28, 2.9× raw$30.28 · EBAY · 2026-09-13Raw$10.47askA live listing. Nobody has paid this.1.0×Raw — $10.47, 1.0× rawThe cheapest copy actually listed for sale, delivered — item plus required shipping. An offer, not a price anybody has paid. Every multiple on this ladder is taken against it.
A PSA 10 fetches 44% more than a CGC 10.
One rung down, a PSA 8 is $19.99 — 1.9× raw.
ACE (96 slabs) has no priced comp at any grade — nothing has been paid for one we can see.
Grading ROI
▼Don't gradeCGC: -$28.51 expected after $45.00 of fees — observed gem share 50% of n=466.
Best on CGC: -$28.51 expected after $45.00 of fees — observed gem share 50% of n=466.
VendorVendorThe grading company, one row each. Rows are the graders we hold both a fee schedule and a population census for — a grader we cannot price is left out rather than estimated.
FeeFeeThe all-in submission cost per card at this grader: grading tier plus shipping both ways and insurance, as published. A † marks a fee we could not read from a published schedule and had to carry from a prior reading. Lower is better.
P(10)P(10)The share of this card’s submissions to this grader that came back a 10, from its own population census. It is what WAS submitted and kept, not the odds your particular copy grades — a card people only submit when it looks perfect reads high here for that reason alone.
10 price10 priceWhat a 10 from this grader actually sells for. The superscript says what kind of evidence that is — a sale, an unsold listing, or the provider’s own modelled guide.
ROI(10)ROI(10)Return if the card grades a 10 and sells at that price: (10 price − raw price − fee) over what you put in. The BEST case, before any probability is applied. Higher is better.
Risk-wtdRisk-wtdThe same return weighted by the odds of each grade, not just the 10 — the number to compare graders on, because a high P(10) at a high fee can lose to a lower one. A leading ≈ means the full grade distribution was unavailable and a coarser method stood in. Higher is better.
ACE
$24.39ACE Basic — the cheapest tier accepting single-card submissions, read 2026-10-06. £18.00 converted at GBP/USD 1.355 (2026-09-01) — a conversion, not a quoted USD price. Cheaper tiers you cannot use today: Core $16.26, Value $20.33.
55.2%95% interval 45.3%–64.8% on n=96. A share of what was submitted and kept, not submission odds.
—No 10 price is on file for ACE, so no return can be computed for it — an absence, never a zero.
—Return if the card grades a 10 and sells at that price: (10 price − raw price − fee) over what you put in. The BEST case, before any probability is applied. Higher is better.
—Risk-weighted ROI withheld: no ACE price at grade 10 at any basis.
BGS
$79.95BGS Express — the cheapest tier accepting single-card submissions, read 2026-09-01. Cheaper tiers you cannot use today: Base $14.95.
—The share of this card’s submissions to this grader that came back a 10, from its own population census. It is what WAS submitted and kept, not the odds your particular copy grades — a card people only submit when it looks perfect reads high here for that reason alone.
Pre-grade this card →Photograph your own copy front and back for centering, wear and the odds of each grade. An estimate, not a grade.
$10.47 raw (cheapest delivered ask) + $20.00 CGC Economy + $25.00 ship/ins = $55.47 · less 13.25% sale fee · 45d lockup
Share of what was submitted and kept — not the odds your copy grades 10.
Ultra Rare — 16 cards at this rarity, so one NAMED Ultra Rare is 1 in 390 packs.
Secret Rare~1 in 96Secret Rare — 2 cards at this rarity, so one NAMED Secret Rare is 1 in 96 packs, estimated from sets of the same era.
Hit tiers in Astral Radiance Trainer Gallery, hardest at the top. Log scale.
Method▾
P(this card, per pack) = the published odds of its RARITY appearing, split evenly across the cards printed at that rarity in the set; the figure shown is 1/p, the mean number of packs to one copy. The ladder plots every tier of the set on a logarithmic scale, because a set spans two orders of magnitude between its commonest hit and its hardest and a linear scale would pin all but one of them to the same end.
The Pokémon Company has never published physical booster odds in any region — the only official drop-rate page covers the digital TCG Live packs and lists no probabilities at all. This figure is a hand-entered citation of a published pack-opening study of this set.
Print scarcity
•Moderately printedAgainst every card we can read, this one's implied print run lands in the moderately printed third. It is an ORDER, not a count — the model recovers no print figure and does not try to. Read from Astral Radiance Trainer Gallery's pooled print scale and this card's own pull rate.
Against every card we can read, this one's implied print run lands in the moderately printed third. It is an ORDER, not a count — the model recovers no print figure and does not try to. Read from Astral Radiance Trainer Gallery's pooled print scale and this card's own pull rate.
LightModerateHeavy
Model inputs
Graded copies1,841 copiesGraded copies1,841 copiesSlabs on record across PSA, CGC and ACE, summed over every grade. The model’s raw input — it is NOT the print run, because a card people grade often will show a large population off a small press run. Ungraded and sealed copies are invisible to it.Packs per copy1 in 390Packs per copy1 in 390How many packs it takes to see one named copy of this card — the same figure SCARCITY leads with. It is what converts a set-wide print scale into this card’s own.Set read from18 cardsSet read from18 cardsEvery card in the set with a price, a population and a pull rate gives an independent estimate of how many packs of the set exist. They are pooled by median, so one mis-joined card cannot move the answer.
Method▾
Graded population is print run × how often anyone bothers grading it, and the second factor moves with VALUE — so population is divided by price^0.606, the elasticity fitted across 3,826 cards that carry a population, a price and a pull rate at once. That normalised count is turned into a SET pack scale using the card’s pull rate (every card in a set is an independent read on how many packs exist, pooled by median), then brought back down to this card by its own pull rate. The band is a tertile of the result across every card that clears the gates.
Nobody has ever published a Pokémon print run, and this does not recover one — it is an ORDER, not a count. It reads surviving graded supply across PSA, CGC and ACE, so ungraded and sealed stock are invisible to it. What it is checked against: the model puts Black & White at the bottom of the catalog and modern Scarlet & Violet at the top, which is where the smallest and largest print runs actually are.
Spearman rank correlation of weekly share against weekly median price over the trailing 26 weeks, on the weeks carrying both. Printed only at 8 weeks or more; below that the count is stated instead of a coefficient off a handful of readings.
Mark E left Standard on April 5, 2024.
94.5% of card lines in these decklists matched a card in our catalog; an unmatched line is never counted. Online events only, not Regionals or Worlds. Tournament results →
Card text▾
HP320
TypesPsychic
StageVMAX
AbilitiesAbility Underworld DoorOnce during your turn, you may attach a Psychic Energy card from your hand to 1 of your Benched Psychic Pokémon. If you attached Energy to a Pokémon in this way, draw 2 cards.
AttacksCCC Max Geist · 10+Cost: Colorless · Colorless · ColorlessThis attack does 30 more damage for each Psychic Energy attached to all of your Pokémon.
WeaknessDarkness ×2
ResistanceFighting -30
Retreat2
Regulation markE
LegalStandard ✗not legal · Expanded ✓legal
EvidenceEvidenceThe specific observations the explanation rests on. If this row is thin, treat the explanation as thin — it is the only thing holding it up.
Evidence: item-basis daily bars, TCGplayer active listings, absorption read ("Over 30d: inventory +1.9%, cheap depth no data, sales velocity no data -> NEUTRAL.").
ConfidenceConfidenceHow much weight to put on the primary explanation, given how much of the evidence actually resolved. It qualifies the row above; it never adds to it.
Confidence: 30% (floor-confidence 40/100), based on 979 days of observations.
What would disprove itWhat would disprove itThe observation that would break the primary explanation. It is what makes the reading falsifiable rather than unfalsifiable — and it is the thing to watch for next.
This read would be wrong if active listings rebound above 0 while sold median keeps falling.
CatalogCard identity: set, number, rarity, finish, release date. It dates from the printing itself, so an old reading here is expected and is not staleness.
May 27, 2022
4.4y
98%
No
Live askA copy offered for sale right now. An ask is what a seller wants, not what anyone paid — it bounds the price from above until it clears.
Oct 14, 2026
1h
90%
No
Guide priceA calculated market guide — a model of where the product is trading. Never a confirmed sale, and always marked Modelled.
Oct 13, 2026
1d
90%
Yes
Price statisticAn observed figure computed over several rows rather than one print — a delivered floor, a published median over a window.
Oct 13, 2026
9h
90%
No
Confirmed saleA completed transaction at a known price — the strongest evidence on this page. Prices are delivered (item + required shipping).
Oct 12, 2026
1d
85%
No
Inventory countHow many copies and listings stand on the book. What depth, supply and absorption are measured against.
Oct 13, 2026
9h
70%
No
Population censusA grader's published count of the copies it has slabbed at each grade. A record of what was submitted and kept, never the odds a copy grades.
Oct 12, 2026
1d
60%
No
Raw · Holo · Near MintWhat every row above was gathered for — one printing, in this one finish and condition or grade. Change either switcher in the header and you are reading a different one; the page's own URL is the address of exactly this one.pq-quant-2026.10.0The version of the scoring and analytics formulas that produced everything on this page. Two figures computed under different versions are not comparable, which is why the version is stated rather than assumed.
-4.7%
3d ago
$9.98 delivered, 1 unit, 2026-10-10T20:20:10.757ZMeasured against today's cheapest delivered ask — a print above it is information, not bad news.
$5.29-49.5%3d ago$5.29 delivered, 1 unit, 2026-10-10T07:00:00.000ZMeasured against today's cheapest delivered ask — a print above it is information, not bad news.
$9.98-4.7%3d ago$9.98 delivered, 1 unit, 2026-10-10T04:46:24.883ZMeasured against today's cheapest delivered ask — a print above it is information, not bad news.
Price trend13%407-day and 30-day returns read against the noise of this card’s own series. Above 50 the price moved further than its own noise explains; below 50 it moved the other way. Withheld on a window with no confirmed print, where the line is the relay’s published guide and the return would be a reading of its revision schedule.
Scarcity7%39How few of this card exist, as a percentile of every card we can read. Prefers PRINT SCARCITY’s estimate — graded population with the value confound divided out, turned into a print scale by the pull rate — and falls back to packs-per-copy alone where that cannot be read. Scarce is oriented as GOOD, on the theory that thinner supply supports a price. Weighted low on purpose: scarcity is fixed at print and the market has had years to price it in, so this is a structural prior rather than an edge.
Manipulation risk9%55RISK-ORIENTED. What it costs to walk the visible book up 50%, against both real trailing volume and one buyer’s cheque book. High here is bad, and it enters the composite inverted.
Book pressure11%47Supply leaving the market or refilling it. Prefers the 30-day inventory change; falls back to the venue's own listing count over the readings held, capped tighter because a shorter window is weaker evidence. Withheld on a count that never moves, or on a book so small that one listing's arrival pins the percent to a rail.
Grading upside6%49Best expected return across grading vendors, half a point per percent — the optionality on top of the raw thesis, never the thesis itself.
Seller concentration5%no readingThe venue attributes no seller identity to these asks.
Reprint risk5%no readingPrint status is unestablished — no shelf observation and no recorded reprint event.
The bottom line is a weighted mean of the signals that reported, renormalised so their weights sum to 1. Nothing defaults to a neutral 50: an input with no evidence is reweighted away and its absence is charged as a confidence penalty. Risk rows (manipulation, concentration, reprint) enter inverted. Data quality carries no weight at all — it decides whether the verdict may be spoken, because knowing a lot about a card is not a reason to buy it. Competitive meta sits OUTSIDE the weighted mean as a capped bonus added after it: a card nobody plays is never marked down for that, and a card the meta is built on can be marked up for it.
—No 10 price is on file for BGS, so no return can be computed for it — an absence, never a zero.
—Return if the card grades a 10 and sells at that price: (10 price − raw price − fee) over what you put in. The BEST case, before any probability is applied. Higher is better.
—Risk-weighted ROI withheld: no BGS population total, so P(10) has no honest denominator.
CGC
$20.00CGC Economy — the cheapest tier accepting single-card submissions, read 2026-10-06. Cheaper tiers you cannot use today: Bulk $17.00.
50.0%95% interval 45.5%–54.5% on n=466. A share of what was submitted and kept, not submission odds.
$42.00What a 10 from this grader actually sells for. The superscript says what kind of evidence that is — a sale, an unsold listing, or the provider’s own modelled guide.
-34%-$19.04 on a $55.47 cost basis.
≈-51%Only 16% of the CGC distribution is priced, so this falls back to P(10)·ROI(10) + (1−P(10))·ROI(pooled sub-10 price).
PSA
$59.99PSA Standard — the cheapest tier accepting single-card submissions, read 2026-10-06. Cheaper tiers you cannot use today: Value Bulk $24.99, Value $32.99.
71.2%95% interval 68.6%–73.6% on n=1277. A share of what was submitted and kept, not submission odds.
$60.50What a 10 from this grader actually sells for. The superscript says what kind of evidence that is — a sale, an unsold listing, or the provider’s own modelled guide.
-45%-$42.98 on a $95.46 cost basis.
-56%Risk-weighted across all 9 PSA rungs; 99% of the distribution carried its own price, the remaining 1% valued at the pooled sub-10 price.
TAG
$59.95TAG Standard — the cheapest tier accepting single-card submissions, read 2026-10-06. Cheaper tiers you cannot use today: Basic $22.00.
—The share of this card’s submissions to this grader that came back a 10, from its own population census. It is what WAS submitted and kept, not the odds your particular copy grades — a card people only submit when it looks perfect reads high here for that reason alone.
$30.28What a 10 from this grader actually sells for. The superscript says what kind of evidence that is — a sale, an unsold listing, or the provider’s own modelled guide.
-72%-$69.15 on a $95.42 cost basis.
—Risk-weighted ROI withheld: no TAG population total, so P(10) has no honest denominator.