Totodile — p607836Raw · Japanese · Normal · Near MintEvery price, print, listing and score on this page belongs to this one printing in this one condition or grade — switch either dropdown and you are looking at a different one.
The condition or grade being priced. Each one is a separate instrument that trades at its own price, so choosing one replaces every figure on the page. “All conditions” and “All grades” are a union of the siblings — their tape, listings and volume are combined, with one sibling named as the reference for price and analytics.
∅Illiquid / UnknownIlliquid / UnknownThe classifier refused to call one: too little liquidity or too small a sample to test any rule. The absence of a read, never a tenth regime.▴OvervaluedOvervaluedThe market price sits above the blended fair-value band — not merely above its midpoint. The blend and its four components are on the FAIR VALUE card; the wider the band, the weaker this call.1D—1D return—No bar 1 observation back, so there is nothing to measure against — an absence, not a flat market.7D—7D return—No bar 7 observations back, so there is nothing to measure against — an absence, not a flat market.30D+1.3%30D return+1.3%Change in the headline market price against the close 30 observed bars back. Bars exist only for days this card actually traded, so the span can be longer than the label's calendar reading.As of 15:47ZAs of 15:47ZThe market price, its 1D/7D/30D returns, the order book, the For Sale counts and today’s price bar as they stood when this page was built. The page itself is served from a shared cache, so this stamp — not the moment you loaded it — is how old these numbers are. Your browser re-reads them a moment after the page arrives and this line follows.
Mkt Price
$2.27item—
Last $1.95 · 13d
Mkt Price$2.27 itemThe venue’s published daily market guide, which the venue itself declares MODELLED. Nothing is confirmed to have traded at it, no copy is listed at it, and it is not our estimate — it is theirs. It is quoted on the ITEM basis — the basis every wall tile is quoted on — and it is what the chart plots on a day with no print of its own. Last confirmed fixed-price sale: $1.95 at 2026-10-13T20:16:53.830Z. Shipping was free, so delivered is the same number. One trade, not a statistic — the figure above it is the day's median.
Fair Value
$2.58delivered
≈$1.33 item · Band $1.71–$3.45
Fair Value$2.58 deliveredBand is ±33.7% of the point estimate: 2 of 4 components available (excluded: depth clearing, auction clearing — 40% of weight reweighted away, 20% confidence penalty), on 5 observation(s) in the trailing 30d. Thin samples and missing components widen the band 3.48x over the raw component spread. No recent clearing price: too few prints in the last 120h to say what it is trading at now. A weighted blend of independent estimates, quoted DELIVERED — item plus required shipping — where Mkt Price beside it may be item basis. Read the band, not the point: its width is the model's own confidence. On the ITEM basis TCGplayer’s guide is quoted on, that is about $1.33 — this card’s own prints carry a median delivered-minus-item wedge of $1.25, measured day by day, never an assumed postage rate.
Liquidity
19/100
Thin liquidity
Liquidity19 /100How easily a position clears, scored 0–100. Four readings, equally weighted, each independently nullable: trade rate (the chance it trades today, from 30d units sold), trade breadth (how many of the last 30 days carried a trade), queue clearance (30d units sold against the units on the board) and seller dispersion (how many different people are selling it). A reading nobody can measure is absent and the rest reweight — never filled in with a zero.
30D Vol
9units▲+17.4%
units · vs prior 30d
30D Vol9 units9 units over the last 30 days, on TCGplayer. Newest reading Oct 13, 2026. Against 8 in the 30 days before.
For Sale
6units
6 sellers
For Sale6 unitsEvery active fixed-price ask with a known delivered price. Auctions are a separate market and are never counted here.
Graded PopN/A
Graded PopN/AEvery slab reported by every grader we hold a census for, pooled. A share of what was submitted and kept — not the odds a copy grades 10.
How this summary is madeThe first sentence is written by a language model from this card’s own data. The second is computed from the live numbers on this page every time it loads, so it moves with the market.
One candle per UTC day — the finest grain this market recordsOne candle per ISO week (Mon–Sun), rolled up from the daily barsOne candle per calendar month, rolled up from the daily barsitem — the sale price alone, excluding shipping. This is the basis TCGplayer’s own market guide is published on, and the basis every wall tile, screener row and watchlist quote uses, so it is what the headline compares against.delivered — item + required shipping, the basis every alarm, floor and fair value uses. A print whose shipping the venue never stated has no delivered price and is excluded from the bar rather than counted at its item price; a day with no priced print falls back to the guide, which is an item price and says so.
How each period is drawn. Candles and bars show the full observed open/high/low/close; line and area show the close alone. The DATA does not change with the mark.
Price scale (linear, log or percent), auto-scaling, and the note on exactly how these bars were built.
Expand the chart to the whole viewport. Same bars and same drawings — only the room they get changes.
Cursor — chart crosshair, pan and zoomTrend line — two pointsHorizontal line — one click, priced at the axisRay — two points, extended forwardZone — two cornersFibonacci retracement — anchor the move, start to endNote — click, then typeMeasure — drag for change, percent and barsMagnet — snap each new anchor to the nearest bar's open, high, low or close, so a line lands on an observation rather than between two of them.Nothing to clear — there are no drawings on this card.DRW
Fair valueRICHThe cheapest delivered ask sits more than 5% above the blended fair-value estimate (FAIR_VALUE_AT_FAIR_TOLERANCE_PCT).
Fair value $2.58 delivered, about $1.33 on the item basis; the cheapest delivered ask is 33.1% above it$2.58delivered+33.1%The cheapest delivered ask ($3.43) against the blended fair-value estimate.top 86%top 86% of 2,665 tracked on FV gap · Ranked against every tracked card as of Oct 27, 2026; the number above is live.
$2.58
Supply
•Ample supply6 listed units against a 0.3/day pace is 20.0 days of stock. Under 7d reads tight, 30d or more reads heavy.
6 units listed across 6 sellers — 20.0d of stock at the 30-day pace of 0.3/day.
Listed · 6 sellers · $25.966 unitsActive fixed-price asks with a known delivered price. Auctions are a separate market and never enter this count.Sold · 30d · 0.3/day9 unitsUnits over the last 30 days, on TCGplayer, against 8 in the 30 days before. Newest reading 2026-10-13.
Print scarcity
•Set not coveredA set needs at least three cards carrying a price, a graded population and a pull rate at once before its print scale means anything. this set does not reach that, so there is nothing to rank this card against.
A set needs at least three cards carrying a price, a graded population and a pull rate at once before its print scale means anything. this set does not reach that, so there is nothing to rank this card against.
LightModerateHeavy
Method▾
Graded population is print run × how often anyone bothers grading it, and the second factor moves with VALUE — so population is divided by price^0.606, the elasticity fitted across 3,826 cards that carry a population, a price and a pull rate at once. That normalised count is turned into a SET pack scale using the card’s pull rate (every card in a set is an independent read on how many packs exist, pooled by median), then brought back down to this card by its own pull rate. The band is a tertile of the result across every card that clears the gates.
Nobody has ever published a Pokémon print run, and this does not recover one — it is an ORDER, not a count. It reads surviving graded supply across PSA, CGC and ACE, so ungraded and sealed stock are invisible to it. What it is checked against: the model puts Black & White at the bottom of the catalog and modern Scarlet & Violet at the top, which is where the smallest and largest print runs actually are.
Absorption
—Building historyToo few readings of the book to tell a drawdown from noise. The count is on the card — see the note below.
5 readings of this book so far, one per 3 days, over 12d. The direction reads once there are enough of them to tell a drawdown from noise.
Method▾
Each reading takes the venue's own listing count for this card in this condition — the whole book — at that instant. The direction is classified by the platform's absorption reading over that series: a book drawn down with demand behind it reads as accumulation, one that refills after a drawdown reads as distribution. Copies and sellers come from the cheapest asks we sample, not from the book, and are labelled as such. Sold units are confirmed prints from the live tape over the same span, and are shown only when the tape reaches back past the first reading.
The direction is classified over the platform-standard 30-day trailing window. That window is a scope, not a history: it contains exactly the readings counted on this card and no others — and only readings that counted the venue’s own book, never a sampled one trended against a counted one.
Why It's Moving
What changedWhat changedThe observable that moved, stated before any reason for it — the fact the rest of this panel has to account for.
Modelled guide price moved +0.0% over the trailing 7 days and +1.3% over 30 days, now at $2.27. 8 active TCGplayer listings on file.
Primary explanationPrimary explanationThe reading the evidence best supports. It is an explanation, never a forecast, and it is only as good as the Evidence row two lines down.
Primary read: Price trend scored 99/100 (composite weight 36%). — the largest single contributor to the current ILLIQUID_UNKNOWN regime read.
AlternativeAlternativeA competing explanation the SAME evidence would also support. It is printed even when the primary looks strong: an explanation with no stated alternative is a story, not an analysis.
Alternative explanation: Liquidity scored 19/100 (composite weight 24%).. With 6 distinct sellers/observations in the trailing window, either read is defensible — this is not a high-conviction single-cause move.
Provenance▾
EvidenceEvidenceWhat kind of fact this row is. A completed sale, a live ask and a calculated guide price are three different weights of evidence about the same number, and this column is the difference between them.
ObservedObservedThe day the fact was read — not the day the underlying event happened, and not today. An old date is an old reading.
AgeAgeHow long ago this row was read, as of the moment the page was computed.
ConfidenceConfidenceHow much weight this row carries where it feeds a model, from the resolver that matched it. Lower means a looser match or a thinner source, and a low-confidence row is reweighted rather than dropped.
ModelledModelledYes = a CALCULATED value (a guide price, an estimate); No = something actually observed (a sale, a listing, a census count). A modelled row is evidence about a model, not about the market.
The blend’s point estimate — the weighted centre of the four component reads listed below. It is the middle of a band, not a target: read the band’s width before the point.
$3.43Market price$3.43What the market is actually asking right now — the cheapest delivered price, or the newest confirmed print when no ladder exists. The card’s verdict is where this line falls against the band.
Sales VWAP$2.74Trend anchor$2.24
$1.71The bottom of the stated fair-value band — the cheap end of the blend, not a floor and not a support level. A wider band is the model saying it is less sure, so the two ends are more informative together than the point between them.$3.45The top of the stated fair-value band — the rich end of the blend, not a ceiling and not a target. A wider band is the model saying it is less sure, so the two ends are more informative together than the point between them.
Sales VWAP$2.7467%Sales VWAP$2.74Time-decayed, unit-weighted mean delivered price of confirmed prints — the last 48h dominate.Weight 67% of the blend, after reweighting away the inputs with no evidence.Depth clearingN/A—Depth clearingN/AUnavailable in the trailing 30d window — reweighted away, not defaulted.No evidence for this input, so it carries no weight — the blend is the other components, reweighted.Trend anchor$2.2433%Trend anchor$2.24Last non-null trend value (SMA) of the price series, in delivered terms.Weight 33% of the blend, after reweighting away the inputs with no evidence.Auction clearingN/A—Auction clearingN/AUnavailable in the trailing 30d window — reweighted away, not defaulted.No evidence for this input, so it carries no weight — the blend is the other components, reweighted.
≈$1.33 item basis · ±33.7% band · 2 of 4 inputs · 5 obs / 30dBand is ±33.7% of the point estimate: 2 of 4 components available (excluded: depth clearing, auction clearing — 40% of weight reweighted away, 20% confidence penalty), on 5 observation(s) in the trailing 30d. Thin samples and missing components widen the band 3.48x over the raw component spread. No recent clearing price: too few prints in the last 120h to say what it is trading at now.
›33.1% over fair — don't chase; cheapest delivered ask $3.44.
Market safety
▲Elevated riskA spike here outlives the 7-day window and not the 30-day one: it would move this week's return, and an ordinary month of this card's trading absorbs it.
$17.97 clears the cheap side — 19 days of turnover (1.09 book-months, 6 asks).
Book
10%·$3.43·$3.43 ask+1%Sweeping 10% of the visible book costs $3.43The next unbought ask after that sweep sits at $3.43 ask — +1% against today's cheapest.Visible asks only, at delivered prices. An unshipped listing has no delivered price and is not in this ladder.50%·$13.98·$3.67 ask+8%Sweeping 50% of the visible book costs $13.98The next unbought ask after that sweep sits at $3.67 ask — +8% against today's cheapest.Visible asks only, at delivered prices. An unshipped listing has no delivered price and is not in this ladder.80%·$25.96·$7.99 ask+134%Sweeping 80% of the visible book costs $25.96The next unbought ask after that sweep sits at $7.99 ask — +134% against today's cheapest.Visible asks only, at delivered prices. An unshipped listing has no delivered price and is not in this ladder.Book $25.96Total notional on the visible ask ladder, and the largest single seller's share of it. A book that is mostly one seller's inventory is one decision away from moving.Best ask vs fair · $3.43 vs $2.58+32.9%Best ask vs fair+32.9%$3.43 vs $2.58
Mechanics▾
Cost to +50%$17.97
clears every ask under +50% of the last trade
Days to absorb19
5 units to control
Book notional$25.96
6 units · 1 level
Book / 30d sold1.1x
30d traded $23.80
VenuesTCGplayer
The absorption ladder walks the visible delivered-price ask book cheapest-first: what each slice of the book costs, the ask it leaves marginal, and how far that sits from the last price the card actually traded at. Manipulation risk is the worse of two reads — how many days of this card’s own turnover it would take to absorb the cost of control, and whether the whole buyable book fits inside a single ordinary order.
Flow
—SteadyThis week's daily sold units overlap the middle half of the rest of the window, so no change in pace is separable from the noise. Trading at its own normal rate.
3 sold in 7d, 1.4× the 30d pace — 30d prints clear at $3.43 median, -0.3% vs the $3.44 floor.
This week 3 · last week 4 · 30d/wk 2
Recent prints
$1.95-43.3%13d ago$1.95 delivered, 1 unit, 2026-10-13T20:16:53.830ZMeasured against today's cheapest delivered ask — a print above it is information, not bad news.$3.440.0%15d ago$3.44 delivered, 1 unit, 2026-10-12T00:17:10.107ZMeasured against today's cheapest delivered ask — a print above it is information, not bad news.$4.99+45.1%23d ago$4.99 delivered, 1 unit, 2026-10-04T02:17:37.170ZMeasured against today's cheapest delivered ask — a print above it is information, not bad news.$3.24
Method▾
Daily units are the venue's own sold-quantity history, expanded off each bucket's real span, plus confirmed prints from the other side of the market. Prints come from the live sales tape at delivered prices. The floor is the cheapest delivered ask (item + required shipping) across venues — the same one FAIR VALUE prices against.
Bottom line
—No callThe inputs that did report are too stale or too thin to trust, so no call is made on them.
44/100 across 5 of 11 inputs. For: price trend reads 99/100. Against: the cheapest ask is 33.1% over fair. The evidence behind it is too thin to trust, so no call is made on it.
Value vs fair0Value vs fair0/100The cheapest delivered ask against the blended fair-value estimate, two points per percent. Above 50 the card is trading under what the evidence says it is worth. Withheld entirely when fair value declares itself UNKNOWN — a discount measured against an untrustworthy anchor is not a discount.Carries 17% of the composite.Price trend99Price trend99/1007-day and 30-day returns read against the noise of this card’s own series. Above 50 the price moved further than its own noise explains; below 50 it moved the other way. Withheld on a window with no confirmed print, where the line is the relay’s published guide and the return would be a reading of its revision schedule.Carries 13% of the composite.Liquidity19Liquidity19/100Four equally-weighted readings of what counterparties did: the chance it trades today, how many of the last 30 days carried a trade, 30-day units sold against the units on the board, and how many different people are selling it. A reading nobody can measure is absent and the rest reweight.Carries 9% of the composite.Relative strength78Relative strength78/100This card’s 30-day return as a percentile of every tracked card that has one. 50 is "moved with the market". Declines to speak until the ranked universe is large enough to mean it.Carries 7% of the composite.Manipulation risk55Manipulation risk55/100RISK-ORIENTED. What it costs to walk the visible book up 50%, against both real trailing volume and one buyer’s cheque book. High here is bad, and it enters the composite inverted.Carries 9% of the composite, inverted: 55 risk entered as 45.
5 of 11 inputs · 55% weight · -22% confidence▾
Not reading yet: money flow, book pressure, grading upside, seller concentration, reprint risk, scarcity.
Value vs fair17%0The cheapest delivered ask against the blended fair-value estimate, two points per percent. Above 50 the card is trading under what the evidence says it is worth. Withheld entirely when fair value declares itself UNKNOWN — a discount measured against an untrustworthy anchor is not a discount.Price trend13%997-day and 30-day returns read against the noise of this card’s own series. Above 50 the price moved further than its own noise explains; below 50 it moved the other way. Withheld on a window with no confirmed print, where the line is the relay’s published guide and the return would be a reading of its revision schedule.Liquidity9%19Four equally-weighted readings of what counterparties did: the chance it trades today, how many of the last 30 days carried a trade, 30-day units sold against the units on the board, and how many different people are selling it. A reading nobody can measure is absent and the rest reweight.Relative strength7%78
EvidenceEvidenceThe specific observations the explanation rests on. If this row is thin, treat the explanation as thin — it is the only thing holding it up.
Evidence: item-basis daily bars, TCGplayer active listings, absorption read ("Over 30d: inventory +14.3%, cheap depth no data, sales velocity no data -> NEUTRAL.").
ConfidenceConfidenceHow much weight to put on the primary explanation, given how much of the evidence actually resolved. It qualifies the row above; it never adds to it.
Confidence: 90% (floor-confidence 35/100), based on 394 days of observations.
What would disprove itWhat would disprove itThe observation that would break the primary explanation. It is what makes the reading falsifiable rather than unfalsifiable — and it is the thing to watch for next.
This read would be wrong if active listings rebound above 9 while sold median keeps falling.
CatalogCard identity: set, number, rarity, finish, release date. It dates from the printing itself, so an old reading here is expected and is not staleness.
Dec 10, 1999
26.9y
98%
No
Live askA copy offered for sale right now. An ask is what a seller wants, not what anyone paid — it bounds the price from above until it clears.
Oct 16, 2026
11d
90%
No
Guide priceA calculated market guide — a model of where the product is trading. Never a confirmed sale, and always marked Modelled.
Oct 27, 2026
16h
90%
Yes
Price statisticAn observed figure computed over several rows rather than one print — a delivered floor, a published median over a window.
Oct 16, 2026
11d
90%
No
Confirmed saleA completed transaction at a known price — the strongest evidence on this page. Prices are delivered (item + required shipping).
Oct 13, 2026
14d
85%
No
Inventory countHow many copies and listings stand on the book. What depth, supply and absorption are measured against.
Oct 16, 2026
11d
70%
No
Raw · Japanese · Normal · Near MintWhat every row above was gathered for — one printing, in this one finish and condition or grade. Change either switcher in the header and you are reading a different one; the page's own URL is the address of exactly this one.pq-quant-2026.10.0The version of the scoring and analytics formulas that produced everything on this page. Two figures computed under different versions are not comparable, which is why the version is stated rather than assumed.
Highest Volume
The 12 most-traded cards by dollar volume over the last 30 days
#
Card
SetSetThe set this printing belongs to. Sets differ in print run and age, which is most of why two cards at the same price behave differently.
Trend 30DTrend 30DThe last 30 days of price, drawn from a zero-independent scale. The shape is the reading — the level is the Price column beside it.
30D30DPrice change over the last 30 calendar days, signed. A dash when the series has no price close enough to 30 days ago to measure from.
PricePriceThe card’s current market price as the wall quotes it (an item price, before shipping).
30d vol30d volume30d volumeDollars traded over the last 30 days — units sold each day times that day’s price, summed. The same figure the wall sorts by, and the order this list is in.
FV GapFV GapPrice against fair value, signed. NEGATIVE is below the model — the card trades under its fair value — which is the opposite direction from the Pop 30D column’s colouring.
LiqLiqLiquidity, 0–100 — how easily a position clears, never whether it is cheap. Four readings, equally weighted, each independently nullable: trade rate (the chance it trades today, from 30d units sold), trade breadth (how many of the last 30 days carried a trade), queue clearance (30d units sold against the units on the board) and seller dispersion (how many different people are selling it). A reading nobody can measure is absent and the rest reweight — never filled in with a zero.
VelocityVelocityConfirmed sales per day. Higher means a thicker tape, so every other figure in the row rests on more evidence.
Days InvDays InvHow many days the listed supply would take to clear at the current sale pace. Lower is a tighter market; a very high number usually means the pace, not the supply, is the problem.
SupplySupplyUnits listed for sale right now across the venues we track. It is the raw count of asks, not what is buyable at any one price.
Pop 30DPop 30DChange in graded population over 30 days. Rising means supply of slabs is growing, which is the ordinary up-is-up reading and generally NOT good for price.
$3.24 delivered, 1 unit, 2026-10-03T04:58:23.167ZMeasured against today's cheapest delivered ask — a print above it is information, not bad news.
$3.43-0.3%24d ago$3.43 delivered, 1 unit, 2026-10-03T04:13:21.497ZMeasured against today's cheapest delivered ask — a print above it is information, not bad news.
This card’s 30-day return as a percentile of every tracked card that has one. 50 is "moved with the market". Declines to speak until the ranked universe is large enough to mean it.
Manipulation risk9%55RISK-ORIENTED. What it costs to walk the visible book up 50%, against both real trailing volume and one buyer’s cheque book. High here is bad, and it enters the composite inverted.
Money flow11%no readingNo confirmed prints with a contemporaneous ask to classify against.
Book pressure11%no readingNeeds a 30-day inventory change, or book counts spanning ≥3 days that move at all and rest on ≥8 listings. Collection of `inventory_observations` began 2026-09-02.
Scarcity7%no readingNeither scarcity read is available: no pull rate on file for this card’s rarity, and no print-scale estimate for its set (or the set is inside its first 12 months, where graded population has not accumulated yet).
Grading upside6%no readingNo priced grade outcomes, so expected return is unknown.
Seller concentration5%no readingThe venue attributes no seller identity to these asks.
Reprint risk5%no readingPrint status is unestablished — no shelf observation and no recorded reprint event.
The bottom line is a weighted mean of the signals that reported, renormalised so their weights sum to 1. Nothing defaults to a neutral 50: an input with no evidence is reweighted away and its absence is charged as a confidence penalty. Risk rows (manipulation, concentration, reprint) enter inverted. Data quality carries no weight at all — it decides whether the verdict may be spoken, because knowing a lot about a card is not a reason to buy it. Competitive meta sits OUTSIDE the weighted mean as a capped bonus added after it: a card nobody plays is never marked down for that, and a card the meta is built on can be marked up for it.
Mega Rayquaza ex110
M6: Storm Emeralda110 · Special Art Rare
