No fair-value component could be computed for the trailing 30d window (no confirmed prints, no ask ladder, no trend anchor, no completed auctions). No point estimate is offered.

Market safety

No book

Nothing is listed for sale, so there is no book for one buyer to move.

Bottom line

No call

Supply

Nothing listed

0 units listed — no 30-day sales pace to measure them against.

Listed0 units

Print scarcity

Too new to read

Graded population climbs for about a year after a set releases and then levels off, so a set inside that ramp looks lightly printed purely because nobody has sent its cards in yet. this set is 5 months old. We hold the read until 12 months.

LightModerateHeavy

Method

Graded population is print run × how often anyone bothers grading it, and the second factor moves with VALUE — so population is divided by price^0.606, the elasticity fitted across 3,826 cards that carry a population, a price and a pull rate at once. That normalised count is turned into a SET pack scale using the card’s pull rate (every card in a set is an independent read on how many packs exist, pooled by median), then brought back down to this card by its own pull rate. The band is a tertile of the result across every card that clears the gates.

Why It's Moving

What changedWhat changedThe observable that moved, stated before any reason for it — the fact the rest of this panel has to account for.: Quoted price moved +0.0% over the trailing 7 days and +0.0% over 30 days, now at $0.00.
Primary explanationPrimary explanationThe reading the evidence best supports. It is an explanation, never a forecast, and it is only as good as the Evidence row two lines down.: Primary read: no single factor dominates; the composite score is being driven by broad, low-amplitude movement across most inputs.
AlternativeAlternativeA competing explanation the SAME evidence would also support. It is printed even when the primary looks strong: an explanation with no stated alternative is a story, not an analysis.: Alternative explanation: with only 0 distinct sellers/observations in the trailing window, the move could just as easily be sampling noise rather than a durable shift.
Evidence

Provenance

EvidenceEvidenceWhat kind of fact this row is. A completed sale, a live ask and a calculated guide price are three different weights of evidence about the same number, and this column is the difference between them.	ObservedObservedThe day the fact was read — not the day the underlying event happened, and not today. An old date is an old reading.	AgeAgeHow long ago this row was read, as of the moment the page was computed.	ConfidenceConfidenceHow much weight this row carries where it feeds a model, from the resolver that matched it. Lower means a looser match or a thinner source, and a low-confidence row is reweighted rather than dropped.	ModelledModelledYes = a CALCULATED value (a guide price, an estimate); No = something actually observed (a sale, a listing, a census count). A modelled row is evidence about a model, not about the market.

duster

sweeps

across

a

burst

of

warm

yellow

and

orange

swirls,

a

cheerful

picture

for

a

card

that

only

works

for

the

player

going

second.

Demand

in

this

Simplified

Chinese

edition

comes

mostly

from

set

completists,

since

the

rarity

makes

it

bulk.

No signal reported, so there is nothing to add up yet. That is under half the model, so no call is made on it.

0 of 11 inputs · 0% weight · -35% confidence

Not reading yet: value vs fair, price trend, money flow, book pressure, liquidity, relative strength, grading upside, manipulation risk, seller concentration, reprint risk, scarcity.

Value vs fair17%no readingPrice trend13%no readingMoney flow11%no readingBook pressure11%no readingLiquidity9%no readingManipulation risk9%no readingRelative strength7%no readingScarcity7%no readingGrading upside6%no readingSeller concentration5%no readingReprint risk5%no reading

The bottom line is a weighted mean of the signals that reported, renormalised so their weights sum to 1. Nothing defaults to a neutral 50: an input with no evidence is reweighted away and its absence is charged as a confidence penalty. Risk rows (manipulation, concentration, reprint) enter inverted. Data quality carries no weight at all — it decides whether the verdict may be spoken, because knowing a lot about a card is not a reason to buy it. Competitive meta sits OUTSIDE the weighted mean as a capped bonus added after it: a card nobody plays is never marked down for that, and a card the meta is built on can be marked up for it.

Nobody has ever published a Pokémon print run, and this does not recover one — it is an ORDER, not a count. It reads surviving graded supply across PSA, CGC and ACE, so ungraded and sealed stock are invisible to it. What it is checked against: the model puts Black & White at the bottom of the catalog and modern Scarlet & Violet at the top, which is where the smallest and largest print runs actually are.

Evidence: item-basis daily bars, absorption read ("Insufficient data: 0 inventory observation(s) in the trailing 30d window (need >= 4).").

Confidence

Confidence: 0%, based on 0 days of observations.

What would disprove it

This read would be wrong if the price reverses over the next 7 days.

Raw · Chinese (Simplified) · Normal · Near Mintpq-quant-2026.10.0