Mainland collectors get their own take on the 30th Celebration with this Simplified Chinese Mew ex, a set tied to the franchise anniversary and pitched squarely

as of Oct 23, 2026 · UTC

history since Sep 2026

Mew ex (梦幻ex) — 135 · 1DMkt$31.670.0%guide price · monthlyitem price

Vol — sold·0 prints·1 obssingle obs — no range

Live Listings

Pricevs MktQtyCond

eBay0

Fair value

Insufficient data

No fair value is published for this card — no confirmed print or completed auction in 30 days — an estimate built from live asks alone would be a restatement of the book.

Market safety

No book

Nothing is listed for sale, so there is no book for one buyer to move.

Flow

Thin tape

Supply

Nothing listed

0 units listed — 0.0d of stock at the 30-day pace of 5.6/day.

Listed0 unitsSold · 5d · 5.6/day28 units

Slab premium

Modest slab premium

A CGC 10 is worth $93.00 — 2.9× the $31.67 raw modelled guide price.

Dearest slab per grading company

CGC 10

Print scarcity

Too new to read

Graded population climbs for about a year after a set releases and then levels off, so a set inside that ramp looks lightly printed purely because nobody has sent its cards in yet. this set is 1 month old. We hold the read until 12 months.

LightModerateHeavy

Method

Graded population is print run × how often anyone bothers grading it, and the second factor moves with VALUE — so population is divided by price^0.606, the elasticity fitted across 3,826 cards that carry a population, a price and a pull rate at once. That normalised count is turned into a SET pack scale using the card’s pull rate (every card in a set is an independent read on how many packs exist, pooled by median), then brought back down to this card by its own pull rate. The band is a tertile of the result across every card that clears the gates.

Nobody has ever published a Pokémon print run, and this does not recover one — it is an ORDER, not a count. It reads surviving graded supply across PSA, CGC and ACE, so ungraded and sealed stock are invisible to it. What it is checked against: the model puts Black & White at the bottom of the catalog and modern Scarlet & Violet at the top, which is where the smallest and largest print runs actually are.

Why It's Moving

What changedWhat changedThe observable that moved, stated before any reason for it — the fact the rest of this panel has to account for.: Modelled guide price moved +22.3% over the trailing 7 days and -18.7% over 30 days, now at $31.67.
Primary explanationPrimary explanationThe reading the evidence best supports. It is an explanation, never a forecast, and it is only as good as the Evidence row two lines down.: Primary read: no single factor dominates; the composite score is being driven by broad, low-amplitude movement across most inputs.
AlternativeAlternativeA competing explanation the SAME evidence would also support. It is printed even when the primary looks strong: an explanation with no stated alternative is a story, not an analysis.: Alternative explanation: with only 0 distinct sellers/observations in the trailing window, the move could just as easily be sampling noise rather than a durable shift.
Evidence

Provenance

EvidenceEvidenceWhat kind of fact this row is. A completed sale, a live ask and a calculated guide price are three different weights of evidence about the same number, and this column is the difference between them.	ObservedObservedThe day the fact was read — not the day the underlying event happened, and not today. An old date is an old reading.	AgeAgeHow long ago this row was read, as of the moment the page was computed.	ConfidenceConfidenceHow much weight this row carries where it feeds a model, from the resolver that matched it. Lower means a looser match or a thinner source, and a low-confidence row is reweighted rather than dropped.	ModelledModelledYes = a CALCULATED value (a guide price, an estimate); No = something actually observed (a sale, a listing, a census count). A modelled row is evidence about a model, not about the market.

CGC

at

the

domestic

player

and

collector

base.

The

futuristic

rare

treatment

fills

the

frame

with

a

pastel,

prismatic

Mew

floating

among

oversized

energy

symbols

and

a

small

celebration

Pikachu

badge.

Set

for

September

2026,

it

sits

in

the

chase

slot,

so

demand

starts

with

the

pink

psychic

icon's

lasting

popularity.

The modelled guide sits at $32, down 19% over 30 days on 28 copies traded; no PSA population is on file, and a CGC 10 would fetch about $93 against $45 in grading fees.

Insufficient data

Only 5 days of sold history — a full 30-day window is needed to read a pace.

Method

Daily units are the venue's own sold-quantity history, expanded off each bucket's real span, plus confirmed prints from the other side of the market. Prints come from the live sales tape at delivered prices. The floor is the cheapest delivered ask (item + required shipping) across venues — the same one FAIR VALUE prices against.

Bottom line

No call

No signal reported, so there is nothing to add up yet. That is under half the model, so no call is made on it.

0 of 11 inputs · 0% weight · -35% confidence

Not reading yet: value vs fair, price trend, money flow, book pressure, liquidity, relative strength, grading upside, manipulation risk, seller concentration, reprint risk, scarcity.

Value vs fair17%no readingPrice trend13%no readingMoney flow11%no readingBook pressure11%no readingLiquidity9%no readingManipulation risk9%no readingRelative strength7%no readingScarcity7%no readingGrading upside6%no readingSeller concentration5%no readingReprint risk5%no reading

The bottom line is a weighted mean of the signals that reported, renormalised so their weights sum to 1. Nothing defaults to a neutral 50: an input with no evidence is reweighted away and its absence is charged as a confidence penalty. Risk rows (manipulation, concentration, reprint) enter inverted. Data quality carries no weight at all — it decides whether the verdict may be spoken, because knowing a lot about a card is not a reason to buy it. Competitive meta sits OUTSIDE the weighted mean as a capped bonus added after it: a card nobody plays is never marked down for that, and a card the meta is built on can be marked up for it.

$93.00

2.9×

Raw$31.67^guide1.0×

Grading ROI

Insufficient data

Best on CGC: No CGC population total for this printing, so P(10) has no honest denominator.

VendorVendorThe grading company, one row each. Rows are the graders we hold both a fee schedule and a population census for — a grader we cannot price is left out rather than estimated.	FeeFeeThe all-in submission cost per card at this grader: grading tier plus shipping both ways and insurance, as published. A † marks a fee we could not read from a published schedule and had to carry from a prior reading. Lower is better.	P(10)P(10)The share of this card’s submissions to this grader that came back a 10, from its own population census. It is what WAS submitted and kept, not the odds your particular copy grades — a card people only submit when it looks perfect reads high here for that reason alone.	10 price10 priceWhat a 10 from this grader actually sells for. The superscript says what kind of evidence that is — a sale, an unsold listing, or the provider’s own modelled guide.	ROI(10)ROI(10)Return if the card grades a 10 and sells at that price: (10 price − raw price − fee) over what you put in. The BEST case, before any probability is applied. Higher is better.	Risk-wtdRisk-wtdThe same return weighted by the odds of each grade, not just the 10 — the number to compare graders on, because a high P(10) at a high fee can lose to a lower one. A leading ≈ means the full grade distribution was unavailable and a coarser method stood in. Higher is better.
CGC	$20.00CGC Economy — the cheapest tier accepting single-card submissions, read 2026-10-06. Cheaper tiers you cannot use today: Bulk $17.00.	—The share of this card’s submissions to this grader that came back a 10, from its own population census. It is what WAS submitted and kept, not the odds your particular copy grades — a card people only submit when it looks perfect reads high here for that reason alone.	$93.00$93.00. What a 10 from this grader actually sells for. The superscript says what kind of evidence that is — a sale, an unsold listing, or the provider’s own modelled guide.	+5%+$4.01 on a $76.67 cost basis.	—Risk-weighted ROI withheld: no CGC population total, so P(10) has no honest denominator.

Pre-grade this card →

$31.67 raw (modelled guide price) + $20.00 CGC Economy + $25.00 ship/ins = $76.67 · less 13.25% sale fee · 45d lockup

Evidence: item-basis daily bars, absorption read ("Insufficient data: 0 inventory observation(s) in the trailing 30d window (need >= 4).").

Confidence

Confidence: 90%, based on 38 days of observations.

What would disprove it

This read would be wrong if the price reverses over the next 7 days.

Raw · Chinese (Simplified) · Holo · Near Mintpq-quant-2026.10.0