Lapras (拉普拉斯) (Chinese) — 106

1 active — top bid $2.00 vs $4.75 BIN floor.

What changedWhat changedThe observable that moved, stated before any reason for it — the fact the rest of this panel has to account for.

Modelled guide price moved +15.6% over the trailing 7 days and +9.6% over 30 days, now at $2.74.

Primary explanationPrimary explanationThe reading the evidence best supports. It is an explanation, never a forecast, and it is only as good as the Evidence row two lines down.

Primary read: Liquidity scored 74/100 (composite weight 61%). — the largest single contributor to the current ILLIQUID_UNKNOWN regime read.

AlternativeAlternativeA competing explanation the SAME evidence would also support. It is printed even when the primary looks strong: an explanation with no stated alternative is a story, not an analysis.

Alternative explanation: Data quality scored 35/100 (composite weight 39%).. With 45 distinct sellers/observations in the trailing window, either read is defensible — this is not a high-conviction single-cause move.

EvidenceEvidenceThe specific observations the explanation rests on. If this row is thin, treat the explanation as thin — it is the only thing holding it up.

Evidence: item-basis daily bars, absorption read ("Insufficient data: 0 inventory observation(s) in the trailing 30d window (need >= 4).").

ConfidenceConfidenceHow much weight to put on the primary explanation, given how much of the evidence actually resolved. It qualifies the row above; it never adds to it.

Confidence: 90% (floor-confidence 31/100), based on 57 days of observations.

What would disprove itWhat would disprove itThe observation that would break the primary explanation. It is what makes the reading falsifiable rather than unfalsifiable — and it is the thing to watch for next.

This read would be wrong if the price reverses over the next 7 days.