Loading card terminal…
Set symbol
$420.00, the modelled guide price, as of October 6, 2026.
Its printed rarity is Promo.
Champions Festival (#XY176) is from XY Black Star Promos, released October 12, 2013.
modelled guide
units · vs prior 30d
live delivered asks
as of Oct 6, 2026 · UTC
history since Sep 2026
Champions Festival — XY176 · 1DMkt$420.000.0%guide priceitem price
Vol — sold·0 prints·1 obssingle obs — no range
Insufficient data
No fair-value component could be computed for the trailing 30d window (no confirmed prints, no ask ladder, no trend anchor, no completed auctions). No point estimate is offered.
Nothing is listed for sale, so there is no book for one buyer to move.
0 units listed — 0.0d of stock at the 30-day pace of 0.1/day.
A PSA 8 is worth $1,247.00 — 3.0× the $420.00 raw modelled guide price.
Dearest slab per grading company
PSA 8A set needs at least three cards carrying a price, a graded population and a pull rate at once before its print scale means anything. this set does not reach that, so there is nothing to rank this card against.
Graded population is print run × how often anyone bothers grading it, and the second factor moves with VALUE — so population is divided by price^0.606, the elasticity fitted across 3,826 cards that carry a population, a price and a pull rate at once. That normalised count is turned into a SET pack scale using the card’s pull rate (every card in a set is an independent read on how many packs exist, pooled by median), then brought back down to this card by its own pull rate. The band is a tertile of the result across every card that clears the gates.
Nobody has ever published a Pokémon print run, and this does not recover one — it is an ORDER, not a count. It reads surviving graded supply across PSA, CGC and ACE, so ungraded and sealed stock are invisible to it. What it is checked against: the model puts Black & White at the bottom of the catalog and modern Scarlet & Violet at the top, which is where the smallest and largest print runs actually are.
Loading opportunities…
| EvidenceEvidenceWhat kind of fact this row is. A completed sale, a live ask and a calculated guide price are three different weights of evidence about the same number, and this column is the difference between them. | ObservedObservedThe day the fact was read — not the day the underlying event happened, and not today. An old date is an old reading. | AgeAgeHow long ago this row was read, as of the moment the page was computed. | ConfidenceConfidenceHow much weight this row carries where it feeds a model, from the resolver that matched it. Lower means a looser match or a thinner source, and a low-confidence row is reweighted rather than dropped. | ModelledModelledYes = a CALCULATED value (a guide price, an estimate); No = something actually observed (a sale, a listing, a census count). A modelled row is evidence about a model, not about the market. |
|---|
Insufficient data
Only 2 units sold in 30 days — under the 8-unit floor for reading a pace.
Daily units are the venue's own sold-quantity history, expanded off each bucket's real span, plus confirmed prints from the other side of the market. Prints come from the live sales tape at delivered prices. The floor is the cheapest delivered ask (item + required shipping) across venues — the same one FAIR VALUE prices against.
No signal reported, so there is nothing to add up yet. That is under half the model, so no call is made on it.
Not reading yet: value vs fair, price trend, money flow, book pressure, liquidity, relative strength, grading upside, manipulation risk, seller concentration, reprint risk, scarcity.
The bottom line is a weighted mean of the signals that reported, renormalised so their weights sum to 1. Nothing defaults to a neutral 50: an input with no evidence is reweighted away and its absence is charged as a confidence penalty. Risk rows (manipulation, concentration, reprint) enter inverted. Data quality carries no weight at all — it decides whether the verdict may be spoken, because knowing a lot about a card is not a reason to buy it. Competitive meta sits OUTSIDE the weighted mean as a capped bonus added after it: a card nobody plays is never marked down for that, and a card the meta is built on can be marked up for it.
PSA 8 is the dearest slab on the board at $1,247.00; the next priced grader is CGC 8 at $950.00.
One rung down, a PSA 7 is $1,176.44 — 2.8× raw.
Best on BGS: No BGS population total for this printing, so P(10) has no honest denominator.
| VendorVendorThe grading company, one row each. Rows are the graders we hold both a fee schedule and a population census for — a grader we cannot price is left out rather than estimated. | FeeFeeThe all-in submission cost per card at this grader: grading tier plus shipping both ways and insurance, as published. A † marks a fee we could not read from a published schedule and had to carry from a prior reading. Lower is better. | P(10)P(10)The share of this card’s submissions to this grader that came back a 10, from its own population census. It is what WAS submitted and kept, not the odds your particular copy grades — a card people only submit when it looks perfect reads high here for that reason alone. | 10 price10 priceWhat a 10 from this grader actually sells for. The superscript says what kind of evidence that is — a sale, an unsold listing, or the provider’s own modelled guide. | ROI(10)ROI(10)Return if the card grades a 10 and sells at that price: (10 price − raw price − fee) over what you put in. The BEST case, before any probability is applied. Higher is better. | Risk-wtdRisk-wtdThe same return weighted by the odds of each grade, not just the 10 — the number to compare graders on, because a high P(10) at a high fee can lose to a lower one. A leading ≈ means the full grade distribution was unavailable and a coarser method stood in. Higher is better. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BGS | $79.95BGS Express — the cheapest tier accepting single-card submissions, read 2026-09-01. Cheaper tiers you cannot use today: Base $14.95. | —The share of this card’s submissions to this grader that came back a 10, from its own population census. It is what WAS submitted and kept, not the odds your particular copy grades — a card people only submit when it looks perfect reads high here for that reason alone. | —No 10 price is on file for BGS, so no return can be computed for it — an absence, never a zero. | —Return if the card grades a 10 and sells at that price: (10 price − raw price − fee) over what you put in. The BEST case, before any probability is applied. Higher is better. | —Risk-weighted ROI withheld: no BGS population total, so P(10) has no honest denominator. |
| CGC | $20.00CGC Economy — the cheapest tier accepting single-card submissions, read 2026-10-06. Cheaper tiers you cannot use today: Bulk $17.00. | —The share of this card’s submissions to this grader that came back a 10, from its own population census. It is what WAS submitted and kept, not the odds your particular copy grades — a card people only submit when it looks perfect reads high here for that reason alone. |
$420.00 raw (modelled guide price) + $79.95 BGS Express + $25.00 ship/ins = $524.95 · less 13.25% sale fee · 45d lockup
| CatalogCard identity: set, number, rarity, finish, release date. It dates from the printing itself, so an old reading here is expected and is not staleness. | Oct 12, 2013 | 13.0y | 98% | No |
| Confirmed saleA completed transaction at a known price — the strongest evidence on this page. Prices are delivered (item + required shipping). | Jun 19, 2026 | 117d | 85% | No |
| Guide priceA calculated market guide — a model of where the product is trading. Never a confirmed sale, and always marked Modelled. | Oct 6, 2026 | 8d | 75% | Yes |
| —No 10 price is on file for CGC, so no return can be computed for it — an absence, never a zero. |
| —Return if the card grades a 10 and sells at that price: (10 price − raw price − fee) over what you put in. The BEST case, before any probability is applied. Higher is better. |
| —Risk-weighted ROI withheld: no CGC population total, so P(10) has no honest denominator. |
| PSA | $59.99PSA Standard — the cheapest tier accepting single-card submissions, read 2026-10-06. Cheaper tiers you cannot use today: Value Bulk $24.99, Value $32.99. | —The share of this card’s submissions to this grader that came back a 10, from its own population census. It is what WAS submitted and kept, not the odds your particular copy grades — a card people only submit when it looks perfect reads high here for that reason alone. | —No 10 price is on file for PSA, so no return can be computed for it — an absence, never a zero. | —Return if the card grades a 10 and sells at that price: (10 price − raw price − fee) over what you put in. The BEST case, before any probability is applied. Higher is better. | —Risk-weighted ROI withheld: no PSA population total, so P(10) has no honest denominator. |