Reshiram ex — 166/086Raw · Holo · Lightly PlayedEvery price, print, listing and score on this page belongs to this one printing in this one condition or grade — switch either dropdown and you are looking at a different one.
A different printing of this card — a reverse holo, a promo stamp, another language. Choosing one NAVIGATES: every price, print, listing and score on the page belongs to that printing instead, because they are separate instruments that trade at different prices.The condition or grade being priced. Each one is a separate instrument that trades at its own price, so choosing one replaces every figure on the page. “All conditions” and “All grades” are a union of the siblings — their tape, listings and volume are combined, with one sibling named as the reference for price and analytics.
∅Illiquid / UnknownIlliquid / UnknownThe classifier refused to call one: too little liquidity or too small a sample to test any rule. The absence of a read, never a tenth regime.1D·ask-3.0%1D return (ask-based)-3.0%No print in this window — every bar closed on the same provider guide value, so the sold-price reading would be a confident 0%. This is the delivered ask floor's own change over the same window instead: a real move nobody has yet paid, not a sale.7D·ask-9.0%7D return (ask-based)-9.0%No print in this window — every bar closed on the same provider guide value, so the sold-price reading would be a confident 0%. This is the delivered ask floor's own change over the same window instead: a real move nobody has yet paid, not a sale.30D·ask-9.4%30D return (ask-based)-9.4%No print in this window — every bar closed on the same provider guide value, so the sold-price reading would be a confident 0%. This is the delivered ask floor's own change over the same window instead: a real move nobody has yet paid, not a sale.As of 20:37ZAs of 20:37ZThe market price, its 1D/7D/30D returns, the order book, the For Sale counts and today’s price bar as they stood when this page was built. The page itself is served from a shared cache, so this stamp — not the moment you loaded it — is how old these numbers are. Your browser re-reads them a moment after the page arrives and this line follows.
Mkt Price
$186.61item▼-3.0%
Last $177.53 · $180.02 delivered · 40d
Mkt Price$186.61 itemThe venue’s published daily market guide, which the venue itself declares MODELLED. Nothing is confirmed to have traded at it, no copy is listed at it, and it is not our estimate — it is theirs. It is quoted on the ITEM basis — the basis every wall tile is quoted on — and it is what the chart plots on a day with no print of its own. Last confirmed fixed-price sale: $177.53 at 2026-09-03T08:18:39.483Z. Delivered $180.02 with shipping. One trade, not a statistic — the figure above it is the day's median.
Fair ValueN/A
Fair ValueN/ANo fair value is published for this instrument: no confirmed print or completed auction in 30 days — an estimate built from live asks alone would be a restatement of the book. The components below show what evidence exists; the estimate they would blend to is withheld rather than quoted. A weighted blend of independent estimates, quoted DELIVERED — item plus required shipping — where Mkt Price beside it may be item basis. Read the band, not the point: its width is the model's own confidence.
Liquidity
23/100
Thin liquidity
Liquidity23 /100How easily a position clears, scored 0–100. Four readings, equally weighted, each independently nullable: trade rate (the chance it trades today, from 30d units sold), trade breadth (how many of the last 30 days carried a trade), queue clearance (30d units sold against the units on the board) and seller dispersion (how many different people are selling it). A reading nobody can measure is absent and the rest reweight — never filled in with a zero.
30D Vol
2units▼-50.0%
TCGplayer reported
30D Vol2 units2 units over the last 30 days, on TCGplayer — the venue’s OWN reported sold quantity, not a confirmed print of ours, so it is what that venue says rather than a receipt we hold. Newest reading Sep 3, 2026. Against 4 in the 30 days before.
For Sale
11units
11 sellers
For Sale11 unitsEvery active fixed-price ask with a known delivered price. Auctions are a separate market and are never counted here.
Graded Pop
11,586▲+6.1%
across 3 graders
Graded Pop11,586Every slab reported by every grader we hold a census for, pooled. A share of what was submitted and kept — not the odds a copy grades 10.
No live auction bids — this market has no resting bid book.
Cross-Market BasisAsks are live fixed-price listings at delivered prices (item + required shipping). No bid side exists: this market has no resting bid book. There are no live auction bids and no published buylist for this instrument, so the bid side is empty rather than synthesized from asks, price history or a spread assumption.——
AskSize
Ask sideLive fixed-price listings, priced DELIVERED — item plus required shipping. Cheapest first; a listing whose shipping is unknown has no delivered price and is excluded rather than guessed at.
$163.931
$163.93 · 1 unit1 cum.Ask size at this price, and the running total through it from the cheapest ask — 1 unit are buyable at or under $163.93 delivered. The shaded staircase behind the row IS that running total.
$169.001
$169.00 · 1 unit2 cum.Ask size at this price, and the running total through it from the cheapest ask — 2 units are buyable at or under $169.00 delivered. The shaded staircase behind the row IS that running total.
$181.021
$181.02 · 1 unit3 cum.Ask size at this price, and the running total through it from the cheapest ask — 3 units are buyable at or under $181.02 delivered. The shaded staircase behind the row IS that running total.
Ask depth$2,130.10Ask depth$2,130.10Every live fixed-price ask summed at its DELIVERED price — what clearing the whole visible book would cost. There is no bid side to set it against: no auction has a bid on it and no buylist quotes this instrument, and an absent side is never drawn as a zero.
One candle per UTC day — the finest grain this market recordsOne candle per ISO week (Mon–Sun), rolled up from the daily barsOne candle per calendar month, rolled up from the daily barsitem — the sale price alone, excluding shipping. This is the basis TCGplayer’s own market guide is published on, and the basis every wall tile, screener row and watchlist quote uses, so it is what the headline compares against.delivered — item + required shipping, the basis every alarm, floor and fair value uses. A print whose shipping the venue never stated has no delivered price and is excluded from the bar rather than counted at its item price; a day with no priced print falls back to the guide, which is an item price and says so.
How each period is drawn. Candles and bars show the full observed open/high/low/close; line and area show the close alone. The DATA does not change with the mark.
Price scale (linear, log or percent), auto-scaling, and the note on exactly how these bars were built.
Expand the chart to the whole viewport. Same bars and same drawings — only the room they get changes.
Cursor — chart crosshair, pan and zoomTrend line — two pointsHorizontal line — one click, priced at the axisRay — two points, extended forwardZone — two cornersFibonacci retracement — anchor the move, start to endNote — click, then typeMeasure — drag for change, percent and barsMagnet — snap each new anchor to the nearest bar's open, high, low or close, so a line lands on an observation rather than between two of them.Nothing to clear — there are no drawings on this card.DRW
No fair value is published for this card — no confirmed print or completed auction in 30 days — an estimate built from live asks alone would be a restatement of the book.
Market safety
—Not ratedNothing has traded here in 30 days, so how long a spike would survive cannot be read — and the buyable book is larger than one ordinary order, so the unit floor has nothing to say either. The board below is still real.
$2,130 buys the entire visible book (30d traded unknown, 11 asks).
Nothing has traded in 30 days, so there is no turnover to measure a spike against. The book below is what is listed right now.
Book
Chase
—Pack count unknownA priced sealed product exists, but nothing on record says how many packs are inside it. Defaulting a booster box to 36 packs is true for most modern sets and false for enough of them that the guess would sit invisibly inside a dollar figure, so the card withholds instead.
1 in 80 packs for special illustration rare, shared by 7 cards in White Flare — but nothing on record says how many packs are in this set's sealed products, and a guessed pack count would sit invisibly inside the spend figure.
Breakdown
RaritySpecial illustration rareRaritySpecial illustration rareThe provider's own spelling, verbatim. The odds row and this printing have to carry the same string or no estimate is made — a mismatch must produce nothing rather than another rarity's rate.Slot odds
Supply
▼Heavy supply11 listed units against a 0.1/day pace is 165.0 days of stock. Under 7d reads tight, 30d or more reads heavy.
11 units listed across 11 sellers — 165.0d of stock at the 30-day pace of 0.1/day.
PopulationAll graders pooled11,586Every slab reported by every grader we hold a census for, as each of them states its own total. A share of what was submitted and kept — never the odds a copy grades 10. The bars below sum to 11,587, not 11,586: a grader can report a pooled rung and its qualified variants separately, so the stated total is the authority and the bars are what is chartable.ACE750Slabs ACE itself reports for this card. Switching tabs changes the whole chart below to that grader's own grade curve.CGC470Slabs CGC itself reports for this card. Switching tabs changes the whole chart below to that grader's own grade curve.PSA10,366Slabs PSA itself reports for this card. Switching tabs changes the whole chart below to that grader's own grade curve. The bars below sum to 10,367, not 10,366: a grader can report a pooled rung and its qualified variants separately, so the stated total is the authority and the bars are what is chartable.
6.6k1010 — 6,565 slabs, 56.7% of the 11,587 charted hereACE 621 · CGC 305 (Gem Mint 10 · Pristine 10) · PSA 5,639389.59.5 — 38 slabs, 0.3% of the 11,587 charted hereCGC 384.2k99 — 4,194 slabs, 36.2% of the 11,587 charted hereACE 92 · CGC 92 · PSA 4,010178.58.5 — 17 slabs, 0.1% of the 11,587 charted hereCGC 1759788 — 597 slabs, 5.2% of the 11,587 charted hereACE 27 · CGC 6 · PSA 56427.57.5 — 2 slabs, 0.0% of the 11,587 charted hereCGC 211077 — 110 slabs, 0.9% of the 11,587 charted hereACE 6 · CGC 3 · PSA 1013266 — 32 slabs, 0.3% of the 11,587 charted herePSA 321155 — 11 slabs, 0.1% of the 11,587 charted hereCGC 1 · PSA 10744 — 7 slabs, 0.1% of the 11,587 charted herePSA 7233 — 2 slabs, 0.0% of the 11,587 charted herePSA 212AuthAuth — 12 slabs, 0.1% of the 11,587 charted hereACE 4 (Authentic · qualified) · CGC 6 · PSA 2 (Authentic · qualified)
Listed · 11 sellers · $2,130.1011 unitsActive fixed-price asks with a known delivered price. Auctions are a separate market and never enter this count.Sold · 30d · 0.1/day2 unitsUnits over the last 30 days, on TCGplayer — the venue’s own reported sold quantity, not a print, against 4 in the 30 days before. Newest reading 2026-09-03.Graded · ACE 750 · CGC 470 · PSA 10,36611,586 slabsEvery slab reported by every grader we hold a census for, pooled. A share of what was submitted and kept — not the odds your copy grades 10.
ScarcityVery scarceA named card at this rarity takes 1 in 560 packs on average, which is the second fifth of every card we hold pack odds for. The bands are the card-weighted quintiles of that population, not thresholds we picked.
1 in 560 packs for one copy of this card1 in 560packs
Half of all openers get one within 388 packs
Rarest of 4 hit tiers in White FlareEvery tier on this ladder comes out of the same pack under the same study, so the position is a like-for-like comparison. It ranks NAMED cards, not tiers: a 12-card tier and a 1-card tier with the same slot odds are not the same difficulty.
Competitive play•Fringe0.1% of 22,383 Standard decklists in the last 30 days, measured play below the 5% regular threshold.
0.1%+0.0 ppChange in share against the 30-day window ending September 13, 2026, in percentage points.In 18 of 22,383 Standard decklists across 338 events, last 30 days · 1.0 copy per deck that plays it.
What changedWhat changedThe observable that moved, stated before any reason for it — the fact the rest of this panel has to account for.
Modelled guide price moved -9.0% over the trailing 7 days and -9.4% over 30 days, now at $186.61. Active TCGplayer listings fell 0% over the same 7 days to 0.
Primary explanationPrimary explanationThe reading the evidence best supports. It is an explanation, never a forecast, and it is only as good as the Evidence row two lines down.
Primary read: Liquidity scored 23/100 (composite weight 31%). — the largest single contributor to the current ILLIQUID_UNKNOWN regime read.
AlternativeAlternativeA competing explanation the SAME evidence would also support. It is printed even when the primary looks strong: an explanation with no stated alternative is a story, not an analysis.
Alternative explanation: Relative strength scored 73/100 (composite weight 31%).. With 11 distinct sellers/observations in the trailing window, either read is defensible — this is not a high-conviction single-cause move.
EvidenceEvidenceWhat kind of fact this row is. A completed sale, a live ask and a calculated guide price are three different weights of evidence about the same number, and this column is the difference between them.
ObservedObservedThe day the fact was read — not the day the underlying event happened, and not today. An old date is an old reading.
AgeAgeHow long ago this row was read, as of the moment the page was computed.
ConfidenceConfidenceHow much weight this row carries where it feeds a model, from the resolver that matched it. Lower means a looser match or a thinner source, and a low-confidence row is reweighted rather than dropped.
ModelledModelledYes = a CALCULATED value (a guide price, an estimate); No = something actually observed (a sale, a listing, a census count). A modelled row is evidence about a model, not about the market.
10%·$332.93·$169.00 askSweeping 10% of the visible book costs $332.93The next unbought ask after that sweep sits at $169.00 ask.Visible asks only, at delivered prices. An unshipped listing has no delivered price and is not in this ladder.
50%·$1,081·$192.90 askSweeping 50% of the visible book costs $1,081The next unbought ask after that sweep sits at $192.90 ask.Visible asks only, at delivered prices. An unshipped listing has no delivered price and is not in this ladder.
80%·$1,900·$219.60 askSweeping 80% of the visible book costs $1,900The next unbought ask after that sweep sits at $219.60 ask.Visible asks only, at delivered prices. An unshipped listing has no delivered price and is not in this ladder.
Book $2,130Total notional on the visible ask ladder, and the largest single seller's share of it. A book that is mostly one seller's inventory is one decision away from moving.
Mechanics▾
Whole book$2,130
nothing traded — priced at the whole board
Book breadth1 level
11 units on the board
VenuesTCGplayer
The absorption ladder walks the visible delivered-price ask book cheapest-first: what each slice of the book costs, the ask it leaves marginal, and how far that sits from the last price the card actually traded at. Manipulation risk is the worse of two reads — how many days of this card’s own turnover it would take to absorb the cost of control, and whether the whole buyable book fits inside a single ordinary order.
Flow
—Thin tapeToo little sold-unit evidence to read a pace from — see the note below.
—
Insufficient data
Only 2 units sold in 30 days — under the 8-unit floor for reading a pace.
Method▾
Daily units are the venue's own sold-quantity history, expanded off each bucket's real span, plus confirmed prints from the other side of the market. Prints come from the live sales tape at delivered prices. The floor is the cheapest delivered ask (item + required shipping) across venues — the same one FAIR VALUE prices against.
Bottom line
—No callUnder half the model had evidence, so the score is a statement about the inputs that reported rather than about the card. No call until more of them do.
49/100 across 5 of 11 inputs. For: few of these were ever made. Against: liquidity reads 23/100. That is under half the model, so no call is made on it.
Liquidity23Liquidity23/100Four equally-weighted readings of what counterparties did: the chance it trades today, how many of the last 30 days carried a trade, 30-day units sold against the units on the board, and how many different people are selling it. A reading nobody can measure is absent and the rest reweight.Carries 9% of the composite.Book pressure30Book pressure30/100Supply leaving the market or refilling it. Prefers the 30-day inventory change; falls back to the venue's own listing count over the readings held, capped tighter because a shorter window is weaker evidence. Withheld on a count that never moves, or on a book so small that one listing's arrival pins the percent to a rail.Carries 11% of the composite.Scarcity74Scarcity74/100How few of this card exist, as a percentile of every card we can read. Prefers PRINT SCARCITY’s estimate — graded population with the value confound divided out, turned into a print scale by the pull rate — and falls back to packs-per-copy alone where that cannot be read. Scarce is oriented as GOOD, on the theory that thinner supply supports a price. Weighted low on purpose: scarcity is fixed at print and the market has had years to price it in, so this is a structural prior rather than an edge.Carries 7% of the composite.Relative strength73Relative strength73/100This card’s 30-day return as a percentile of every tracked card that has one. 50 is "moved with the market". Declines to speak until the ranked universe is large enough to mean it.Carries 7% of the composite.Grading upside50Grading upside50/100Best expected return across grading vendors, half a point per percent — the optionality on top of the raw thesis, never the thesis itself.Carries 6% of the composite.
5 of 11 inputs · 40% weight · -30% confidence▾
Not reading yet: value vs fair, price trend, money flow, manipulation risk, seller concentration, reprint risk.
Liquidity9%23Four equally-weighted readings of what counterparties did: the chance it trades today, how many of the last 30 days carried a trade, 30-day units sold against the units on the board, and how many different people are selling it. A reading nobody can measure is absent and the rest reweight.Book pressure11%30Supply leaving the market or refilling it. Prefers the 30-day inventory change; falls back to the venue's own listing count over the readings held, capped tighter because a shorter window is weaker evidence. Withheld on a count that never moves, or on a book so small that one listing's arrival pins the percent to a rail.Scarcity7%74How few of this card exist, as a percentile of every card we can read. Prefers PRINT SCARCITY’s estimate — graded population with the value confound divided out, turned into a print scale by the pull rate — and falls back to packs-per-copy alone where that cannot be read. Scarce is oriented as GOOD, on the theory that thinner supply supports a price. Weighted low on purpose: scarcity is fixed at print and the market has had years to price it in, so this is a structural prior rather than an edge.Relative strength
1 in 80 packs
Slot odds1 in 80 packsTCGplayer (Authentication Center) — no sample size published. Measured Jul 21, 2025, 449d before this reading. 1.25% ± 0.81% of packs, 95% CI (>700 packs, Black Bolt and White Flare pooled). Community measurement, not official odds: nobody publishes physical pack rates.
Cards at rarity7 in White FlareCards at rarity7 in White FlareCounted from the catalog: 7 printings in White Flare carry the rarity "Special illustration rare".
This card1 in 560 packs±30%This card1 in 560 packsThe rarity’s measured odds, split evenly across the 7 cards printed at it. That even split is the estimate's weakest link, and it is bounded rather than hand-waved: a published 8,000-pack study put two Special Illustration Rares from one set at 1 in 309 and 1 in 393 packs — same rarity, same set — so a per-card figure is good to about ±30%.
Method▾
P(this card, per pack) = the published odds of its RARITY appearing, split evenly across the cards printed at that rarity in the set. Expected packs is 1/p, the mean of the geometric distribution. The range plots expected pack spend ÷ the single's delivered price on a log axis centred on parity. Pack price is a sealed product's own price divided by its stated pack count, and is computed only where that count carries a source. The single is the cheapest delivered ask (item + required shipping) across venues — the same figure FAIR VALUE prices against.
The Pokémon Company has never published physical booster odds in any region — the only official drop-rate page covers the digital TCG Live packs and lists no probabilities at all. Every figure here is a hand-entered citation of a published pack-opening study, and each one names its source and sample on hover.
Sealed
—No MSRP on fileThese products are priced, but not one of them carries a recorded MSRP with a source behind it. An MSRP is somebody’s assertion rather than a published dataset, and an appreciation measured against nothing is not a judgement this card will invent. The prices are listed below; the comparison is what is missing.
10 of this set’s 11 sealed products carry a price; none carries a recorded MSRP to measure appreciation against.
Set supply · not this card’sThe set's wholesale supply, not this card's — bulk lifts every raw copy in the set.▼Low10 lots listed on 2026-10-13 — higher than 50% of the set's own readings over 29 readings in 90 days.10 lots
Method▾
Sealed product from White Flare — the set this card was printed in. We track which set a product belongs to, not which cards are inside it. Appreciation is each product’s last stored price against its own recorded MSRP, in percent. The card’s call is the MEDIAN of those percentages across the products that have an MSRP — a median rather than a mean, so one outlier SKU cannot carry a whole set — and a product with no MSRP on file is left out of that aggregate rather than counted as zero; it still lists below with its price. MSRP is somebody’s assertion rather than a published dataset, so it is shown only where a source is recorded against it, and that source is on the row’s hover. The bands are a legend for the percentage the card prints beside them: within ±5% is at MSRP, which is this repo’s own fair-value tolerance; up to +25% is a slight premium; up to +100% a significant one; at or above +100% the price has at least doubled and the figure is stated as a multiple, because a four-digit percentage is not a number anybody reads. Each price line takes a day’s observed low/high sale range and plots its midpoint; on a day with no recorded sale it carries the provider’s own daily guide value instead — a quoted price, not a transaction — and those days are drawn dashed, never described as trades. Every line is indexed to its own first stored day = 100, so the chart compares appreciation between products rather than price levels: a booster pack and a booster box cannot honestly share a dollar axis.
Restock
—Not readReadings exist, but none of them is a positive statement either way. UNKNOWN means we loaded the page and could not tell — never that the shelf was empty.
4 tracked SKUs, and not one of them could be read on the last pass.
Best Buy: not currently tracked.Walmart: not currently tracked.Target: 4 SKUs of White Flare's sealed products tracked.GameStop: not currently tracked.
1 retailer tracked · Target · 3 not monitoredEvery retailer in the registry has a cell, including the ones that are not tracked — a shelf nobody is watching reads UNKNOWN, never 'sold out'. One store's empty shelf is not the whole market, and an untracked one is not evidence about the market at all.Set-level: White Flare sealed products, not this cardRetail rows attach to SEALED products only — no big-box retailer sells single cards — so this whole card is the SET's shelf availability. It is not a statement about this card, and a card's own price is unaffected by it.Newest reading 28d ago · Sep 15, 07:35 UTCAvailability decays faster than any other number on the site, so this read is never cached and every row states its own age. An hour-old 'in stock' is a guess; the age is how you tell.Print status unknownThere is no published source for whether a Pokémon product is still being printed — The Pokémon Company has never announced print cessation in any region, and the annual rotation announcement is about tournament legality, not production. So this is an inference, never a fact, and the verdict above comes from observed shelf readings instead. Nothing direct is on file here — no shelf reading either way and no recorded reprint announcement — and release age plus a price ratio is a hypothesis, not a print status, so no estimate is made.
Store board
Not readWhite Flare Binder Collection28d agoWhite Flare Binder Collection at Target, SKU 1004876927 — Not read, no shelf price shown. Read Sep 15, 07:35 UTC. A White Flare sealed product, not this card.Not readWhite Flare Booster Bundle28d agoWhite Flare Booster Bundle at Target, SKU 1004842207 — Not read, no shelf price shown. Read Sep 15, 07:35 UTC. A White Flare sealed product, not this card.Not readWhite Flare Booster Pack28d agoWhite Flare Booster Pack at Target, SKU 1004998658 — Not read, no shelf price shown. Read Sep 15, 07:35 UTC. A White Flare sealed product, not this card.
Shelf prices are pre-tax and exclude shipping — never comparable to a delivered price.Retail shelf prices are pre-tax and exclude shipping, so they are not comparable to the delivered marketplace prices shown elsewhere on this page. They are never fed into a delivered-price floor.Method▾
Each row is one tracked retailer's most recent reading of one of the set's sealed products, at that retailer's own SKU. A restock is an observed OUT_OF_STOCK → IN_STOCK transition in that SKU's reading history, never a change we inferred from a price or a gap. Shelf prices are pre-tax and exclude shipping, so they are not delivered prices and are never fed into a floor.
Absorption
—Building historyToo few readings of the book to tell a drawdown from noise. The count is on the card — see the note below.
30 readings of this book so far, one per 1 day, over 29d. The direction reads once there are enough of them to tell a drawdown from noise.
Method▾
Each reading takes the venue's own listing count for this card in this condition — the whole book — at that instant. The direction is classified by the platform's absorption reading over that series: a book drawn down with demand behind it reads as accumulation, one that refills after a drawdown reads as distribution. Copies and sellers come from the cheapest asks we sample, not from the book, and are labelled as such. Sold units are confirmed prints from the live tape over the same span, and are shown only when the tape reaches back past the first reading.
The direction is classified over the platform-standard 30-day trailing window. That window is a scope, not a history: it contains exactly the readings counted on this card and no others — and only readings that counted the venue’s own book, never a sampled one trended against a counted one.
Slab premium
▲Strong slab premiumThe dearest priced rung is BGS 10 at $1,313.01, 8.0× the $163.93 raw reference (cheapest delivered ask).
A BGS 10 is worth $1,313.01 — 8.0× the $163.93 raw cheapest delivered ask.
Dearest slab per grading company
BGS 10$1,313.018.0×BGS 10 — $1,313.01, 8.0× raw$1,300.00 · EBAY · 2026-09-20 · $1,326.01 · EBAY · 2026-08-17CGC Pristine 10$482.502.9×CGC Pristine 10 — $482.50, 2.9× raw$549.99 · EBAY · 2026-09-29 · $399.99 · EBAY · 2026-09-21 · $449.99 · EBAY · 2026-08-17 +3 more print(s)TAG 10$472.112.9×TAG 10 — $472.11, 2.9× raw$430.00 · EBAY · 2026-08-31 · $472.11 · EBAY · 2026-07-29 · $525.00 · EBAY · 2026-07-23PSA 10$444.772.7×PSA 10 — $444.77, 2.7× raw$390.00 · EBAY · 2026-10-11 · $381.00 · EBAY · 2026-10-11 · $321.00 · EBAY · 2026-10-11 +145 more print(s)ACE 10$203.621.2×ACE 10 — $203.62, 1.2× raw$205.45 · EBAY · 2026-09-06 · $174.97 · EBAY · 2026-09-06 · $238.76 · EBAY · 2026-08-24 +3 more print(s)Raw$163.93askA live listing. Nobody has paid this.1.0×Raw — $163.93, 1.0× rawThe cheapest copy actually listed for sale, delivered — item plus required shipping. An offer, not a price anybody has paid. Every multiple on this ladder is taken against it.
A BGS 10 fetches 172% more than a CGC 10.
One rung down, a BGS 9.5 is $277.50 — 1.7× raw.
Grading ROI
▲GradeCGC: +$34.73 expected, still +$25.82 at the 95% lower bound of the gem share — break-even needs 48% gems; observed 65% (95% floor 60%, n=470).
Best on CGC: +$34.73 expected, still +$25.82 at the 95% lower bound of the gem share — break-even needs 48% gems; observed 65% (95% floor 60%, n=470).
Odds of a 10 vs what it takes
CGC needs 48% tens to break even; the census shows 65%, with a 95% interval of 60% to 69% on 470 slabs.
break-even 47.7%Break-even47.7%The 10 rate this submission would need just to cover the raw price and the fee. It is the white line on the meter above: the solid segment has to clear it before grading is worth doing at all.observed 64.9% [60.5%–69.1%] n=470Observed 10 rate64.9%Measured over 470 graded copies in the census, with a 95% interval of 60.5%–69.1% around it — the band on the meter IS that interval, and it is the width of the doubt, not of the opportunity. A small n makes it wide.
VendorVendorThe grading company, one row each. Rows are the graders we hold both a fee schedule and a population census for — a grader we cannot price is left out rather than estimated.
FeeFeeThe all-in submission cost per card at this grader: grading tier plus shipping both ways and insurance, as published. A † marks a fee we could not read from a published schedule and had to carry from a prior reading. Lower is better.
P(10)P(10)The share of this card’s submissions to this grader that came back a 10, from its own population census. It is what WAS submitted and kept, not the odds your particular copy grades — a card people only submit when it looks perfect reads high here for that reason alone.
10 price10 priceWhat a 10 from this grader actually sells for. The superscript says what kind of evidence that is — a sale, an unsold listing, or the provider’s own modelled guide.
ROI(10)ROI(10)Return if the card grades a 10 and sells at that price: (10 price − raw price − fee) over what you put in. The BEST case, before any probability is applied. Higher is better.
Pre-grade this card →Photograph your own copy front and back for centering, wear and the odds of each grade. An estimate, not a grade.
$163.93 raw (cheapest delivered ask) + $20.00 CGC Economy + $25.00 ship/ins = $208.93 · less 13.25% sale fee · 45d lockup
Share of what was submitted and kept — not the odds your copy grades 10.
Special illustration rare — 7 cards at this rarity, so one NAMED Special illustration rare is 1 in 560 packs.
Illustration rare1 in 427Illustration rare — 70 cards at this rarity, so one NAMED Illustration rare is 1 in 427 packs.
Ultra Rare1 in 137Ultra Rare — 8 cards at this rarity, so one NAMED Ultra Rare is 1 in 137 packs.
Double rare1 in 28Double rare — 6 cards at this rarity, so one NAMED Double rare is 1 in 28 packs.
Hit tiers in White Flare, hardest at the top. Log scale.
Method▾
P(this card, per pack) = the published odds of its RARITY appearing, split evenly across the cards printed at that rarity in the set; the figure shown is 1/p, the mean number of packs to one copy. The ladder plots every tier of the set on a logarithmic scale, because a set spans two orders of magnitude between its commonest hit and its hardest and a linear scale would pin all but one of them to the same end.
The Pokémon Company has never published physical booster odds in any region — the only official drop-rate page covers the digital TCG Live packs and lists no probabilities at all. This figure is a hand-entered citation of a published pack-opening study of this set.
Print scarcity
•Lightly printedAgainst every card we can read, this one's implied print run lands in the lightly printed third. It is an ORDER, not a count — the model recovers no print figure and does not try to. Read from White Flare's pooled print scale and this card's own pull rate.
Against every card we can read, this one's implied print run lands in the lightly printed third. It is an ORDER, not a count — the model recovers no print figure and does not try to. Read from White Flare's pooled print scale and this card's own pull rate.
LightModerateHeavy
Model inputs
Graded copies11,587 copiesGraded copies11,587 copiesSlabs on record across PSA, CGC and ACE, summed over every grade. The model’s raw input — it is NOT the print run, because a card people grade often will show a large population off a small press run. Ungraded and sealed copies are invisible to it.Packs per copy1 in 560Packs per copy1 in 560How many packs it takes to see one named copy of this card — the same figure SCARCITY leads with. It is what converts a set-wide print scale into this card’s own.Set read from91 cardsSet read from91 cardsEvery card in the set with a price, a population and a pull rate gives an independent estimate of how many packs of the set exist. They are pooled by median, so one mis-joined card cannot move the answer.
Method▾
Graded population is print run × how often anyone bothers grading it, and the second factor moves with VALUE — so population is divided by price^0.606, the elasticity fitted across 3,826 cards that carry a population, a price and a pull rate at once. That normalised count is turned into a SET pack scale using the card’s pull rate (every card in a set is an independent read on how many packs exist, pooled by median), then brought back down to this card by its own pull rate. The band is a tertile of the result across every card that clears the gates.
Nobody has ever published a Pokémon print run, and this does not recover one — it is an ORDER, not a count. It reads surviving graded supply across PSA, CGC and ACE, so ungraded and sealed stock are invisible to it. What it is checked against: the model puts Black & White at the bottom of the catalog and modern Scarlet & Violet at the top, which is where the smallest and largest print runs actually are.
Mean copies per deck that runs it, over the 18 decks that do; never averaged against the decks that do not. The bar is scaled to 4, the per-deck limit.
Top-cut lift1.02×0.1% of 3,647 top-cut decklists run it, against 0.1% of the whole field. Above 1.00 it is over-represented where the money is. Withheld under 20 top-cut decklists.
Win rate55.2%32 of 58 decided matches where exactly one seat ran this card. Mirrors, byes and tables with no published winner are excluded. Withheld under 30 matches.
Deck spread0.531 minus the concentration of this card across the deck archetypes that run it. 1.00 is spread evenly over many decks; 0 is one deck.
Player floor$0.56The cheapest currently-priced Standard-legal print of this card: Reshiram ex, White Flare. What it costs to put the card in a deck, which is not the same question as what THIS print is worth.Premium over floor333×This printing's headline price ($186.61) against the player floor ($0.56). What a player pays for THIS art rather than for the cheapest legal copy of the same card.Playset$0.561.0 copies (the mean per deck that runs it) at the player floor of $0.56. What the decks on file actually bought.Rotation runwayNo rotation scheduled for mark INo announcement naming mark I has been published. Standard rotation dates are curated by hand from official announcements; a mark with no announced date carries none rather than a guess.30d sold0 units (-100% vs prior 30d)Units of THIS printing sold in the 30 days ending October 13, 2026, against the 30 days before that (1). Demand at a table and demand in the market are different measurements; this is the second one.Meta vs priceρ -0.74 (14 weeks)Spearman rank correlation of weekly share against weekly median price over the trailing 26 weeks, on the weeks carrying both. Printed only at 8 weeks or more; below that the count is stated instead of a coefficient off a handful of readings.
Meta share · % of Standard decklists (right axis)Median price · this print, $ (left axis)Units sold per day (bars)
Does the meta move the price? Share of Standard decklists running this card against this print's median sale price and units sold, day by day; the rank correlation above is printed once 8 weeks exist.
Fringe at 0.1% of Standard decklists, +0.0 pp on the prior window. A playset costs $0.56 at the cheapest legal print.
94.5% of card lines in these decklists matched a card in our catalog; an unmatched line is never counted. Online events only, not Regionals or Worlds. Tournament results →
Card text▾
HP230
TypesFire
StageBasic
Suffixex
AttacksCC Slash · 50Cost: Colorless · ColorlessRRC Blazing Burst · 130+Cost: Fire · Fire · ColorlessThis attack does 50 more damage for each Prize card your opponent has taken. Discard an Energy from this Pokémon.
Retreat2
Regulation markI
LegalStandard ✓legal · Expanded ✓legal
EvidenceEvidenceThe specific observations the explanation rests on. If this row is thin, treat the explanation as thin — it is the only thing holding it up.
Evidence: item-basis daily bars, TCGplayer active listings, absorption read ("Over 30d: inventory +37.5%, cheap depth no data, sales velocity no data -> NEUTRAL.").
ConfidenceConfidenceHow much weight to put on the primary explanation, given how much of the evidence actually resolved. It qualifies the row above; it never adds to it.
Confidence: 90% (floor-confidence 26/100), based on 399 days of observations.
What would disprove itWhat would disprove itThe observation that would break the primary explanation. It is what makes the reading falsifiable rather than unfalsifiable — and it is the thing to watch for next.
This read would be wrong if active listings rebound above 0 while sold median keeps falling.
CatalogCard identity: set, number, rarity, finish, release date. It dates from the printing itself, so an old reading here is expected and is not staleness.
Jul 17, 2025
1.2y
98%
No
Live askA copy offered for sale right now. An ask is what a seller wants, not what anyone paid — it bounds the price from above until it clears.
Oct 13, 2026
3h
90%
No
Price statisticAn observed figure computed over several rows rather than one print — a delivered floor, a published median over a window.
Oct 13, 2026
3h
90%
No
Confirmed saleA completed transaction at a known price — the strongest evidence on this page. Prices are delivered (item + required shipping).
Sep 3, 2026
41d
85%
No
Inventory countHow many copies and listings stand on the book. What depth, supply and absorption are measured against.
Oct 13, 2026
3h
70%
No
Guide priceA calculated market guide — a model of where the product is trading. Never a confirmed sale, and always marked Modelled.
Oct 13, 2026
21h
60%
Yes
Population censusA grader's published count of the copies it has slabbed at each grade. A record of what was submitted and kept, never the odds a copy grades.
Oct 13, 2026
1m
60%
No
Raw · Holo · Lightly PlayedWhat every row above was gathered for — one printing, in this one finish and condition or grade. Change either switcher in the header and you are reading a different one; the page's own URL is the address of exactly this one.pq-quant-2026.10.0The version of the scoring and analytics formulas that produced everything on this page. Two figures computed under different versions are not comparable, which is why the version is stated rather than assumed.
7%
73
This card’s 30-day return as a percentile of every tracked card that has one. 50 is "moved with the market". Declines to speak until the ranked universe is large enough to mean it.
Grading upside6%50Best expected return across grading vendors, half a point per percent — the optionality on top of the raw thesis, never the thesis itself.
Value vs fair17%no readingFair value returned UNKNOWN — too few comparable prints to anchor an estimate.
Price trend13%no readingNo price history in the 7- and 30-day windows, or no confirmed print in 30 days — the line is the relay’s guide.
Money flow11%no readingNo confirmed prints with a contemporaneous ask to classify against.
Manipulation risk9%no readingNo visible ask book, so there is no control cost to band.
Seller concentration5%no readingThe venue attributes no seller identity to these asks.
Reprint risk5%no readingPrint status is unestablished — no shelf observation and no recorded reprint event.
Competitive meta+2A BONUS on top of the weighted composite, never a penalty: 20% of Standard decklists or more adds 8, 5% or more adds 5, and any measured play at all adds 2. A card nobody plays is not marked down for it. Measured on 0.1% of 22,383 Standard decklists in the last 30 days.
The bottom line is a weighted mean of the signals that reported, renormalised so their weights sum to 1. Nothing defaults to a neutral 50: an input with no evidence is reweighted away and its absence is charged as a confidence penalty. Risk rows (manipulation, concentration, reprint) enter inverted. Data quality carries no weight at all — it decides whether the verdict may be spoken, because knowing a lot about a card is not a reason to buy it. Competitive meta sits OUTSIDE the weighted mean as a capped bonus added after it: a card nobody plays is never marked down for that, and a card the meta is built on can be marked up for it.
The Booster Pack's most recent plotted day carries an observed sale.
Indexed to each product’s own first stored day = 100. Booster Pack in front, 9 behind · dashed = guide price, no sale that day.Each line is that product’s own price divided by its own first stored day and multiplied by 100, so every series starts on the dotted rule and the axis measures APPRECIATION rather than price. Dollars could not do this job here: a booster pack and a booster box differ by two orders of magnitude, and on a shared dollar axis the pack would sit flat on the floor of the plot however far it had actually travelled. The Booster Pack is the base unit and is drawn in front; the rest are drawn behind it, and each one’s own numbers are in the table below. A dashed stretch is a run of days with no recorded sale, carrying the provider’s daily guide value — a quoted price, never a trade.
Appreciation vs MSRP
ProductPriceMSRPvs MSRPEvery sealed product the catalog holds for this set, ordered by how standard a unit each is for tracking a set’s sealed price. PRICE is the product’s last stored day — a sale where one was recorded, the provider’s daily guide value where none was, and the row’s hover says which. MSRP is blank wherever no source is recorded against one, because an MSRP with nobody behind it is not a fact. VS MSRP is the price against that MSRP, as a percentage up to a doubling and as a multiple past it.
Booster Pack$14.73——White Flare Booster Pack—White Flare Booster Pack. Last sale $14.73 on Oct 13, 2026. No MSRP is recorded against this product, so there is nothing to measure a premium from; the blank is a missing MSRP, not a missing price.Binder Collection$76.63——White Flare Binder Collection—White Flare Binder Collection. Quoted at $76.63 on Oct 13, 2026 — a guide price, with no sale recorded that day. No MSRP is recorded against this product, so there is nothing to measure a premium from; the blank is a missing MSRP, not a missing price.Booster Bundle$88.11——White Flare Booster Bundle—White Flare Booster Bundle. Quoted at $88.11 on Oct 13, 2026 — a guide price, with no sale recorded that day. No MSRP is recorded against this product, so there is nothing to measure a premium from; the blank is a missing MSRP, not a missing price.Elite Trainer Box$144.89——White Flare Elite Trainer Box—White Flare Elite Trainer Box. Last sale $144.89 on Oct 13, 2026. No MSRP is recorded against this product, so there is nothing to measure a premium from; the blank is a missing MSRP, not a missing price.Pokemon Center Elite Trainer Box (Exclusive)$233.39——White Flare Pokemon Center Elite Trainer Box (Exclusive)—White Flare Pokemon Center Elite Trainer Box (Exclusive). Quoted at $233.39 on Oct 13, 2026 — a guide price, with no sale recorded that day. No MSRP is recorded against this product, so there is nothing to measure a premium from; the blank is a missing MSRP, not a missing price.Binder Collection Case$387.50——White Flare Binder Collection Case—White Flare Binder Collection Case. Quoted at $387.50 on Oct 13, 2026 — a guide price, with no sale recorded that day. No MSRP is recorded against this product, so there is nothing to measure a premium from; the blank is a missing MSRP, not a missing price.Elite Trainer Box Case$1,678.52——White Flare Elite Trainer Box Case—White Flare Elite Trainer Box Case. Quoted at $1,678.52 on Oct 13, 2026 — a guide price, with no sale recorded that day. No MSRP is recorded against this product, so there is nothing to measure a premium from; the blank is a missing MSRP, not a missing price.Booster Bundle Case$2,276.48——White Flare Booster Bundle Case—White Flare Booster Bundle Case. Quoted at $2,276.48 on Oct 13, 2026 — a guide price, with no sale recorded that day. No MSRP is recorded against this product, so there is nothing to measure a premium from; the blank is a missing MSRP, not a missing price.
Not readWhite Flare Booster Pack28d agoWhite Flare Booster Pack at Target, SKU 1004842211 — Not read, no shelf price shown. Read Sep 15, 07:35 UTC. A White Flare sealed product, not this card.
Risk-wtdRisk-wtdThe same return weighted by the odds of each grade, not just the 10 — the number to compare graders on, because a high P(10) at a high fee can lose to a lower one. A leading ≈ means the full grade distribution was unavailable and a coarser method stood in. Higher is better.
ACE
$24.39ACE Basic — the cheapest tier accepting single-card submissions, read 2026-10-06. £18.00 converted at GBP/USD 1.355 (2026-09-01) — a conversion, not a quoted USD price. Cheaper tiers you cannot use today: Core $16.26, Value $20.33.
82.8%95% interval 79.9%–85.3% on n=750. A share of what was submitted and kept, not submission odds.
$203.62What a 10 from this grader actually sells for. The superscript says what kind of evidence that is — a sale, an unsold listing, or the provider’s own modelled guide.
-17%-$36.68 on a $213.32 cost basis.
≈-20%No ACE price below grade 10 exists at any basis, so a miss is valued at the raw reference price — fee and shipping sunk for a slab the market pays no premium for.
BGS
$79.95BGS Express — the cheapest tier accepting single-card submissions, read 2026-09-01. Cheaper tiers you cannot use today: Base $14.95.
—The share of this card’s submissions to this grader that came back a 10, from its own population census. It is what WAS submitted and kept, not the odds your particular copy grades — a card people only submit when it looks perfect reads high here for that reason alone.
$1,313.01What a 10 from this grader actually sells for. The superscript says what kind of evidence that is — a sale, an unsold listing, or the provider’s own modelled guide.
+324%+$870.16 on a $268.88 cost basis.
—Risk-weighted ROI withheld: no BGS population total, so P(10) has no honest denominator.
CGC
$20.00CGC Economy — the cheapest tier accepting single-card submissions, read 2026-10-06. Cheaper tiers you cannot use today: Bulk $17.00.
64.9%95% interval 60.5%–69.1% on n=470. A share of what was submitted and kept, not submission odds.
$383.75What a 10 from this grader actually sells for. The superscript says what kind of evidence that is — a sale, an unsold listing, or the provider’s own modelled guide.
+59%+$123.97 on a $208.93 cost basis.
≈+22%Only 27% of the CGC distribution is priced, so this falls back to P(10)·ROI(10) + (1−P(10))·ROI(pooled sub-10 price).
PSA
$59.99PSA Standard — the cheapest tier accepting single-card submissions, read 2026-10-06. Cheaper tiers you cannot use today: Value Bulk $24.99, Value $32.99.
54.4%95% interval 53.4%–55.4% on n=10366. A share of what was submitted and kept, not submission odds.
$444.77What a 10 from this grader actually sells for. The superscript says what kind of evidence that is — a sale, an unsold listing, or the provider’s own modelled guide.
+55%+$136.92 on a $248.92 cost basis.
+14%Risk-weighted across all 10 PSA rungs; 99% of the distribution carried its own price, the remaining 1% valued at the pooled sub-10 price.
SGC
$79.00†No published SGC fee verified — this is the generic fallback, not SGC's price.
—The share of this card’s submissions to this grader that came back a 10, from its own population census. It is what WAS submitted and kept, not the odds your particular copy grades — a card people only submit when it looks perfect reads high here for that reason alone.
—No 10 price is on file for SGC, so no return can be computed for it — an absence, never a zero.
—Return if the card grades a 10 and sells at that price: (10 price − raw price − fee) over what you put in. The BEST case, before any probability is applied. Higher is better.
—Risk-weighted ROI withheld: no SGC population total, so P(10) has no honest denominator. Fee is the generic $79.00 fallback — SGC's own published price is not in the fee table.
TAG
$59.95TAG Standard — the cheapest tier accepting single-card submissions, read 2026-10-06. Cheaper tiers you cannot use today: Basic $22.00.
—The share of this card’s submissions to this grader that came back a 10, from its own population census. It is what WAS submitted and kept, not the odds your particular copy grades — a card people only submit when it looks perfect reads high here for that reason alone.
$472.11What a 10 from this grader actually sells for. The superscript says what kind of evidence that is — a sale, an unsold listing, or the provider’s own modelled guide.
+65%+$160.68 on a $248.88 cost basis.
—Risk-weighted ROI withheld: no TAG population total, so P(10) has no honest denominator.
