Morty's Conviction — 211/162BGS 9 · HoloEvery price, print, listing and score on this page belongs to this one printing in this one condition or grade — switch either dropdown and you are looking at a different one.
A different printing of this card — a reverse holo, a promo stamp, another language. Choosing one NAVIGATES: every price, print, listing and score on the page belongs to that printing instead, because they are separate instruments that trade at different prices.The condition or grade being priced. Each one is a separate instrument that trades at its own price, so choosing one replaces every figure on the page. “All conditions” and “All grades” are a union of the siblings — their tape, listings and volume are combined, with one sibling named as the reference for price and analytics.
As of 19:39ZAs of 19:39ZThe market price, its 1D/7D/30D returns, the order book, the For Sale counts and today’s price bar as they stood when this page was built. The page itself is served from a shared cache, so this stamp — not the moment you loaded it — is how old these numbers are. Your browser re-reads them a moment after the page arrives and this line follows.
Mkt Price
$58.00item—
item · median
Mkt Price$58.00 itemThe marketplace’s own published guide price for the day. The day’s own prints were too few to take a median from — two trades at one seller’s price point is not a market — so the guide is quoted instead (D-397). The chart still draws every print the day had.
Fair ValueN/A
Fair ValueN/ANo fair-value component could be computed for the trailing 30d window (no confirmed prints, no ask ladder, no trend anchor, no completed auctions). No point estimate is offered. A weighted blend of independent estimates, quoted DELIVERED — item plus required shipping — where Mkt Price beside it may be item basis. Read the band, not the point: its width is the model's own confidence.
LiquidityN/A
LiquidityN/AHow easily a position clears, scored 0–100. Four readings, equally weighted, each independently nullable: trade rate (the chance it trades today, from 30d units sold), trade breadth (how many of the last 30 days carried a trade), queue clearance (30d units sold against the units on the board) and seller dispersion (how many different people are selling it). A reading nobody can measure is absent and the rest reweight — never filled in with a zero.
30D Vol
4units
units · 11d so far
30D Vol4 units4 units over the last 11 days, on TCGplayer and eBay. Newest reading Sep 8, 2026. No earlier 30-day window to compare against.
For Sale
0units
live delivered asks
For Sale0 unitsEvery active fixed-price ask with a known delivered price. Auctions are a separate market and are never counted here.
Graded Pop
6,758▲+2.0%
across 3 graders
Graded Pop6,758Every slab reported by every grader we hold a census for, pooled. A share of what was submitted and kept — not the odds a copy grades 10.
No live auction bids — this market has no resting bid book.
Cross-Market BasisNo ask ladder was available for this instrument, so the ask side is empty. No bid side exists: this market has no resting bid book. There are no live auction bids and no published buylist for this instrument, so the bid side is empty rather than synthesized from asks, price history or a spread assumption.——
No active listings.
Ask depth—Ask depth—Every live fixed-price ask summed at its DELIVERED price — what clearing the whole visible book would cost. There is no bid side to set it against: no auction has a bid on it and no buylist quotes this instrument, and an absent side is never drawn as a zero.
One candle per UTC day — the finest grain this market recordsOne candle per ISO week (Mon–Sun), rolled up from the daily barsOne candle per calendar month, rolled up from the daily barsitem — the sale price alone, excluding shipping. This is the basis TCGplayer’s own market guide is published on, and the basis every wall tile, screener row and watchlist quote uses, so it is what the headline compares against.delivered — item + required shipping, the basis every alarm, floor and fair value uses. A print whose shipping the venue never stated has no delivered price and is excluded from the bar rather than counted at its item price; a day with no priced print falls back to the guide, which is an item price and says so.
How each period is drawn. Candles and bars show the full observed open/high/low/close; line and area show the close alone. The DATA does not change with the mark.
Price scale (linear, log or percent), auto-scaling, and the note on exactly how these bars were built.
Expand the chart to the whole viewport. Same bars and same drawings — only the room they get changes.
Cursor — chart crosshair, pan and zoomTrend line — two pointsHorizontal line — one click, priced at the axisRay — two points, extended forwardZone — two cornersFibonacci retracement — anchor the move, start to endNote — click, then typeMeasure — drag for change, percent and barsMagnet — snap each new anchor to the nearest bar's open, high, low or close, so a line lands on an observation rather than between two of them.Nothing to clear — there are no drawings on this card.DRW
No fair-value component could be computed for the trailing 30d window (no confirmed prints, no ask ladder, no trend anchor, no completed auctions). No point estimate is offered.
Market safety
—No bookNo visible asks, so there is no control cost to band.
Nothing is listed for sale, so there is no book for one buyer to move.
Flow
Thin tape
Chase
—Pack count unknownA priced sealed product exists, but nothing on record says how many packs are inside it. Defaulting a booster box to 36 packs is true for most modern sets and false for enough of them that the guess would sit invisibly inside a dollar figure, so the card withholds instead.
1 in 85 packs for special illustration rare, shared by 10 cards in Temporal Forces — but nothing on record says how many packs are in this set's sealed products, and a guessed pack count would sit invisibly inside the spend figure.
Breakdown
RaritySpecial illustration rareRaritySpecial illustration rareThe provider's own spelling, verbatim. The odds row and this printing have to carry the same string or no estimate is made — a mismatch must produce nothing rather than another rarity's rate.Slot odds
Supply
▲Nothing listedNo active fixed-price ask carries a known delivered price right now. Anyone who wants one has to bid for it or wait.
0 units listed — 0.0d of stock at the 30-day pace of 0.4/day.
PopulationAll graders pooled6,758Every slab reported by every grader we hold a census for, as each of them states its own total. A share of what was submitted and kept — never the odds a copy grades 10. The bars below sum to 6,763, not 6,758: a grader can report a pooled rung and its qualified variants separately, so the stated total is the authority and the bars are what is chartable.ACE281Slabs ACE itself reports for this card. Switching tabs changes the whole chart below to that grader's own grade curve.CGC444Slabs CGC itself reports for this card. Switching tabs changes the whole chart below to that grader's own grade curve.PSA6,033Slabs PSA itself reports for this card. Switching tabs changes the whole chart below to that grader's own grade curve. The bars below sum to 6,038, not 6,033: a grader can report a pooled rung and its qualified variants separately, so the stated total is the authority and the bars are what is chartable.
2.8k1010 — 2,778 slabs, 41.1% of the 6,763 charted hereACE 144 · CGC 255 (Gem Mint 10 · Pristine 10) · PSA 2,379579.59.5 — 57 slabs, 0.8% of the 6,763 charted hereCGC 573.2k99 — 3,198 slabs, 47.3% of the 6,763 charted hereACE 115 · CGC 91 · PSA 2,992218.58.5 — 21 slabs, 0.3% of the 6,763 charted hereCGC 17 · PSA 458188 — 581 slabs, 8.6% of the 6,763 charted hereACE 13 · CGC 14 · PSA 5547277 — 72 slabs, 1.1% of the 6,763 charted hereACE 6 · CGC 5 · PSA 613166 — 31 slabs, 0.5% of the 6,763 charted hereCGC 2 · PSA 2915.55.5 — 1 slabs, 0.0% of the 6,763 charted hereCGC 11555 — 15 slabs, 0.2% of the 6,763 charted hereCGC 1 · PSA 14344 — 3 slabs, 0.0% of the 6,763 charted herePSA 3111 — 1 slabs, 0.0% of the 6,763 charted hereACE 15AuthAuth — 5 slabs, 0.1% of the 6,763 charted hereACE 2 · CGC 1 · PSA 2 (Authentic · qualified)
Listed0 unitsActive fixed-price asks with a known delivered price. Auctions are a separate market and never enter this count.Sold · 11d · 0.4/day4 unitsUnits over the last 11 days, on TCGplayer and eBay. Newest reading 2026-09-08.Graded · ACE 281 · CGC 444 · PSA 6,0336,758 slabsEvery slab reported by every grader we hold a census for, pooled. A share of what was submitted and kept — not the odds your copy grades 10.
ScarcityExtremely scarceA named card at this rarity takes 1 in 855 packs on average, which is the rarest fifth of every card we hold pack odds for. The bands are the card-weighted quintiles of that population, not thresholds we picked.
1 in 855 packs for one copy of this card1 in 855packs
Half of all openers get one within 593 packs
Rarest of 6 hit tiers in Temporal ForcesEvery tier on this ladder comes out of the same pack under the same study, so the position is a like-for-like comparison. It ranks NAMED cards, not tiers: a 12-card tier and a 1-card tier with the same slot odds are not the same difficulty.
Competitive play•Fringe1.0% of 22,383 Standard decklists in the last 30 days, measured play below the 5% regular threshold.
1.0%+0.0 ppChange in share against the 30-day window ending September 13, 2026, in percentage points.In 216 of 22,383 Standard decklists across 338 events, last 30 days · 1.7 copies per deck that plays it.
What changedWhat changedThe observable that moved, stated before any reason for it — the fact the rest of this panel has to account for.
Sold median moved +0.0% over the trailing 7 days and +0.0% over 30 days, last printing at $58.00. Active TCGplayer listings fell 0% over the same 7 days to 0.
Primary explanationPrimary explanationThe reading the evidence best supports. It is an explanation, never a forecast, and it is only as good as the Evidence row two lines down.
Primary read: no single factor dominates; the composite score is being driven by broad, low-amplitude movement across most inputs.
AlternativeAlternativeA competing explanation the SAME evidence would also support. It is printed even when the primary looks strong: an explanation with no stated alternative is a story, not an analysis.
Alternative explanation: with only 0 distinct sellers/observations in the trailing window, the move could just as easily be sampling noise rather than a durable shift.
EvidenceEvidenceWhat kind of fact this row is. A completed sale, a live ask and a calculated guide price are three different weights of evidence about the same number, and this column is the difference between them.
ObservedObservedThe day the fact was read — not the day the underlying event happened, and not today. An old date is an old reading.
AgeAgeHow long ago this row was read, as of the moment the page was computed.
ConfidenceConfidenceHow much weight this row carries where it feeds a model, from the resolver that matched it. Lower means a looser match or a thinner source, and a low-confidence row is reweighted rather than dropped.
ModelledModelledYes = a CALCULATED value (a guide price, an estimate); No = something actually observed (a sale, a listing, a census count). A modelled row is evidence about a model, not about the market.
Too little sold-unit evidence to read a pace from — see the note below.
—
Insufficient data
Only 11 days of sold history — a full 30-day window is needed to read a pace.
Method▾
Daily units are the venue's own sold-quantity history, expanded off each bucket's real span, plus confirmed prints from the other side of the market. Prints come from the live sales tape at delivered prices. The floor is the cheapest delivered ask (item + required shipping) across venues — the same one FAIR VALUE prices against.
Bottom line
—No callUnder half the model had evidence, so the score is a statement about the inputs that reported rather than about the card. No call until more of them do.
63/100 across 2 of 11 inputs. For: few of these were ever made. That is under half the model, so no call is made on it.
Scarcity70Scarcity70/100How few of this card exist, as a percentile of every card we can read. Prefers PRINT SCARCITY’s estimate — graded population with the value confound divided out, turned into a print scale by the pull rate — and falls back to packs-per-copy alone where that cannot be read. Scarce is oriented as GOOD, on the theory that thinner supply supports a price. Weighted low on purpose: scarcity is fixed at print and the market has had years to price it in, so this is a structural prior rather than an edge.Carries 7% of the composite.Grading upside50Grading upside50/100Best expected return across grading vendors, half a point per percent — the optionality on top of the raw thesis, never the thesis itself.Carries 6% of the composite.
2 of 11 inputs · 13% weight · -35% confidence▾
Not reading yet: value vs fair, price trend, money flow, book pressure, liquidity, relative strength, manipulation risk, seller concentration, reprint risk.
Scarcity7%70How few of this card exist, as a percentile of every card we can read. Prefers PRINT SCARCITY’s estimate — graded population with the value confound divided out, turned into a print scale by the pull rate — and falls back to packs-per-copy alone where that cannot be read. Scarce is oriented as GOOD, on the theory that thinner supply supports a price. Weighted low on purpose: scarcity is fixed at print and the market has had years to price it in, so this is a structural prior rather than an edge.Grading upside6%50Best expected return across grading vendors, half a point per percent — the optionality on top of the raw thesis, never the thesis itself.Value vs fair17%no readingFair value returned UNKNOWN — too few comparable prints to anchor an estimate.Price trend13%no readingNo price history in the 7- and 30-day windows, or no confirmed print in 30 days — the line is the relay’s guide.
1 in 85 packs
Slot odds1 in 85 packsTCGplayer (Authentication Center) — no sample size published. Measured Mar 22, 2024, 935d before this reading. 1.17% ± 0.23% of packs, 95% CI (>8,000 packs). Community measurement, not official odds: nobody publishes physical pack rates.
Cards at rarity10 in Temporal ForcesCards at rarity10 in Temporal ForcesCounted from the catalog: 10 printings in Temporal Forces carry the rarity "Special illustration rare".
This card1 in 855 packs±30%This card1 in 855 packsThe rarity’s measured odds, split evenly across the 10 cards printed at it. That even split is the estimate's weakest link, and it is bounded rather than hand-waved: a published 8,000-pack study put two Special Illustration Rares from one set at 1 in 309 and 1 in 393 packs — same rarity, same set — so a per-card figure is good to about ±30%.
Method▾
P(this card, per pack) = the published odds of its RARITY appearing, split evenly across the cards printed at that rarity in the set. Expected packs is 1/p, the mean of the geometric distribution. The range plots expected pack spend ÷ the single's delivered price on a log axis centred on parity. Pack price is a sealed product's own price divided by its stated pack count, and is computed only where that count carries a source. The single is the cheapest delivered ask (item + required shipping) across venues — the same figure FAIR VALUE prices against.
The Pokémon Company has never published physical booster odds in any region — the only official drop-rate page covers the digital TCG Live packs and lists no probabilities at all. Every figure here is a hand-entered citation of a published pack-opening study, and each one names its source and sample on hover.
Sealed
—No MSRP on fileThese products are priced, but not one of them carries a recorded MSRP with a source behind it. An MSRP is somebody’s assertion rather than a published dataset, and an appreciation measured against nothing is not a judgement this card will invent. The prices are listed below; the comparison is what is missing.
24 of this set’s 31 sealed products carry a price; none carries a recorded MSRP to measure appreciation against.
Set supply · not this card’sThe set's wholesale supply, not this card's — bulk lifts every raw copy in the set.▲Elevated19 lots listed on 2026-10-13 — higher than 69% of the set's own readings over 29 readings in 90 days.19 lots · CA$13.05 CAD/pack
Method▾
Sealed product from Temporal Forces — the set this card was printed in. We track which set a product belongs to, not which cards are inside it. Appreciation is each product’s last stored price against its own recorded MSRP, in percent. The card’s call is the MEDIAN of those percentages across the products that have an MSRP — a median rather than a mean, so one outlier SKU cannot carry a whole set — and a product with no MSRP on file is left out of that aggregate rather than counted as zero; it still lists below with its price. MSRP is somebody’s assertion rather than a published dataset, so it is shown only where a source is recorded against it, and that source is on the row’s hover. The bands are a legend for the percentage the card prints beside them: within ±5% is at MSRP, which is this repo’s own fair-value tolerance; up to +25% is a slight premium; up to +100% a significant one; at or above +100% the price has at least doubled and the figure is stated as a multiple, because a four-digit percentage is not a number anybody reads. Each price line takes a day’s observed low/high sale range and plots its midpoint; on a day with no recorded sale it carries the provider’s own daily guide value instead — a quoted price, not a transaction — and those days are drawn dashed, never described as trades. Every line is indexed to its own first stored day = 100, so the chart compares appreciation between products rather than price levels: a booster pack and a booster box cannot honestly share a dollar axis.
Restock
—Not readReadings exist, but none of them is a positive statement either way. UNKNOWN means we loaded the page and could not tell — never that the shelf was empty.
8 tracked SKUs, and not one of them could be read on the last pass.
Best Buy: not currently tracked.Walmart: not currently tracked.Target: 8 SKUs of Temporal Forces's sealed products tracked.GameStop: not currently tracked.
1 retailer tracked · Target · 3 not monitoredEvery retailer in the registry has a cell, including the ones that are not tracked — a shelf nobody is watching reads UNKNOWN, never 'sold out'. One store's empty shelf is not the whole market, and an untracked one is not evidence about the market at all.Set-level: Temporal Forces sealed products, not this cardRetail rows attach to SEALED products only — no big-box retailer sells single cards — so this whole card is the SET's shelf availability. It is not a statement about this card, and a card's own price is unaffected by it.Newest reading 28d ago · Sep 15, 06:56 UTCAvailability decays faster than any other number on the site, so this read is never cached and every row states its own age. An hour-old 'in stock' is a guess; the age is how you tell.Print status unknownThere is no published source for whether a Pokémon product is still being printed — The Pokémon Company has never announced print cessation in any region, and the annual rotation announcement is about tournament legality, not production. So this is an inference, never a fact, and the verdict above comes from observed shelf readings instead. Nothing direct is on file here — no shelf reading either way and no recorded reprint announcement — and release age plus a price ratio is a hypothesis, not a print status, so no estimate is made.
Shelf prices are pre-tax and exclude shipping — never comparable to a delivered price.Retail shelf prices are pre-tax and exclude shipping, so they are not comparable to the delivered marketplace prices shown elsewhere on this page. They are never fed into a delivered-price floor.Method▾
Each row is one tracked retailer's most recent reading of one of the set's sealed products, at that retailer's own SKU. A restock is an observed OUT_OF_STOCK → IN_STOCK transition in that SKU's reading history, never a change we inferred from a price or a gap. Shelf prices are pre-tax and exclude shipping, so they are not delivered prices and are never fed into a floor.
Slab premium
▲Strong slab premiumThe dearest priced rung is TAG 10 at $350.00, 7.1× the $49.54 raw reference (modelled guide price).
A TAG 10 is worth $350.00 — 7.1× the $49.54 raw modelled guide price.
Dearest slab per grading company
TAG 10$350.007.1×TAG 10 — $350.00, 7.1× raw$499.99 · EBAY · 2026-09-15 · $350.00 · EBAY · 2026-09-11 · $309.98 · EBAY · 2026-08-29PSA 10$289.565.8×PSA 10 — $289.56, 5.8× raw$259.99 · EBAY · 2026-10-10 · $250.00 · EBAY · 2026-10-08 · $180.00 · FANATICS · 2026-10-05 +39 more print(s)CGC 10$134.992.7×CGC 10 — $134.99, 2.7× raw$134.99 · EBAY · 2026-10-09 · $224.50 · EBAY · 2026-09-22 · $117.00 · EBAY · 2026-09-15 +4 more print(s)ACE 10$127.352.6×ACE 10 — $127.35, 2.6× raw$127.35 · EBAY · 2026-08-26BGS 9$66.501.3×BGS 9 — $66.50, 1.3× raw$58.00 · EBAY · 2026-09-08 · $75.00 · EBAY · 2026-08-29Raw$49.54guideThe provider’s MODELLED value for this grade — not a sale and not even an offer. Often extrapolated from the grades that did sell.1.0×Raw — $49.54, 1.0× rawThe venue’s published daily market guide, which the venue itself declares MODELLED. Nothing is confirmed to have traded at it, no copy is listed at it, and it is not our estimate — it is theirs. Every multiple on this ladder is taken against it.
A TAG 10 fetches 21% more than a PSA 10.
Grading ROI
▼Don't gradePSA: +$1.30 expected at the observed gem share, but -$1.03 at its 95% lower bound — the population sample is too small to support the submission. Break-even needs 39% gems; observed 39% (95% floor 38%, n=6033).
Best on PSA: +$1.30 expected at the observed gem share, but -$1.03 at its 95% lower bound — the population sample is too small to support the submission. Break-even needs 39% gems; observed 39% (95% floor 38%, n=6033).
Odds of a 10 vs what it takes
PSA needs 39% tens to break even; the census shows 39%, with a 95% interval of 38% to 41% on 6033 slabs.
break-even 38.7%Break-even38.7%The 10 rate this submission would need just to cover the raw price and the fee. It is the white line on the meter above: the solid segment has to clear it before grading is worth doing at all.observed 39.4% [38.2%–40.7%] n=6033Observed 10 rate39.4%Measured over 6033 graded copies in the census, with a 95% interval of 38.2%–40.7% around it — the band on the meter IS that interval, and it is the width of the doubt, not of the opportunity. A small n makes it wide.
VendorVendorThe grading company, one row each. Rows are the graders we hold both a fee schedule and a population census for — a grader we cannot price is left out rather than estimated.
FeeFeeThe all-in submission cost per card at this grader: grading tier plus shipping both ways and insurance, as published. A † marks a fee we could not read from a published schedule and had to carry from a prior reading. Lower is better.
P(10)P(10)The share of this card’s submissions to this grader that came back a 10, from its own population census. It is what WAS submitted and kept, not the odds your particular copy grades — a card people only submit when it looks perfect reads high here for that reason alone.
10 price10 priceWhat a 10 from this grader actually sells for. The superscript says what kind of evidence that is — a sale, an unsold listing, or the provider’s own modelled guide.
ROI(10)ROI(10)Return if the card grades a 10 and sells at that price: (10 price − raw price − fee) over what you put in. The BEST case, before any probability is applied. Higher is better.
Pre-grade this card →Photograph your own copy front and back for centering, wear and the odds of each grade. An estimate, not a grade.
$49.54 raw (modelled guide price) + $59.99 PSA Standard + $25.00 ship/ins = $134.53 · less 13.25% sale fee · 45d lockup
Share of what was submitted and kept — not the odds your copy grades 10.
Special illustration rare — 10 cards at this rarity, so one NAMED Special illustration rare is 1 in 855 packs.
Hyper rare1 in 833Hyper rare — 6 cards at this rarity, so one NAMED Hyper rare is 1 in 833 packs.
Illustration rare1 in 285Illustration rare — 22 cards at this rarity, so one NAMED Illustration rare is 1 in 285 packs.
Ultra Rare1 in 270Ultra Rare — 18 cards at this rarity, so one NAMED Ultra Rare is 1 in 270 packs.
ACE SPEC Rare1 in 140ACE SPEC Rare — 7 cards at this rarity, so one NAMED ACE SPEC Rare is 1 in 140 packs.
Double rare1 in 89Double rare — 15 cards at this rarity, so one NAMED Double rare is 1 in 89 packs.
Hit tiers in Temporal Forces, hardest at the top. Log scale.
Method▾
P(this card, per pack) = the published odds of its RARITY appearing, split evenly across the cards printed at that rarity in the set; the figure shown is 1/p, the mean number of packs to one copy. The ladder plots every tier of the set on a logarithmic scale, because a set spans two orders of magnitude between its commonest hit and its hardest and a linear scale would pin all but one of them to the same end.
The Pokémon Company has never published physical booster odds in any region — the only official drop-rate page covers the digital TCG Live packs and lists no probabilities at all. This figure is a hand-entered citation of a published pack-opening study of this set.
Print scarcity
•Lightly printedAgainst every card we can read, this one's implied print run lands in the lightly printed third. It is an ORDER, not a count — the model recovers no print figure and does not try to. Read from Temporal Forces's pooled print scale and this card's own pull rate.
Against every card we can read, this one's implied print run lands in the lightly printed third. It is an ORDER, not a count — the model recovers no print figure and does not try to. Read from Temporal Forces's pooled print scale and this card's own pull rate.
LightModerateHeavy
Model inputs
Graded copies6,763 copiesGraded copies6,763 copiesSlabs on record across PSA, CGC and ACE, summed over every grade. The model’s raw input — it is NOT the print run, because a card people grade often will show a large population off a small press run. Ungraded and sealed copies are invisible to it.Packs per copy1 in 855Packs per copy1 in 855How many packs it takes to see one named copy of this card — the same figure SCARCITY leads with. It is what converts a set-wide print scale into this card’s own.Set read from78 cardsSet read from78 cardsEvery card in the set with a price, a population and a pull rate gives an independent estimate of how many packs of the set exist. They are pooled by median, so one mis-joined card cannot move the answer.
Method▾
Graded population is print run × how often anyone bothers grading it, and the second factor moves with VALUE — so population is divided by price^0.606, the elasticity fitted across 3,826 cards that carry a population, a price and a pull rate at once. That normalised count is turned into a SET pack scale using the card’s pull rate (every card in a set is an independent read on how many packs exist, pooled by median), then brought back down to this card by its own pull rate. The band is a tertile of the result across every card that clears the gates.
Nobody has ever published a Pokémon print run, and this does not recover one — it is an ORDER, not a count. It reads surviving graded supply across PSA, CGC and ACE, so ungraded and sealed stock are invisible to it. What it is checked against: the model puts Black & White at the bottom of the catalog and modern Scarlet & Violet at the top, which is where the smallest and largest print runs actually are.
TRAINER
SubtypeSupporter
FinishesHolo
LanguagesEN
Set symbol
Mean copies per deck that runs it, over the 216 decks that do; never averaged against the decks that do not. The bar is scaled to 4, the per-deck limit.
Top-cut lift0.48×0.5% of 3,647 top-cut decklists run it, against 1.0% of the whole field. Above 1.00 it is over-represented where the money is. Withheld under 20 top-cut decklists.
Win rate46.2%356 of 771 decided matches where exactly one seat ran this card. Mirrors, byes and tables with no published winner are excluded. Withheld under 30 matches.
Deck spread0.911 minus the concentration of this card across the deck archetypes that run it. 1.00 is spread evenly over many decks; 0 is one deck.
Player floor$0.15The cheapest currently-priced Standard-legal print of this card: Morty's Conviction, Temporal Forces. What it costs to put the card in a deck, which is not the same question as what THIS print is worth.Premium over floor387×This printing's headline price ($58.00) against the player floor ($0.15). What a player pays for THIS art rather than for the cheapest legal copy of the same card.Playset$0.261.7 copies (the mean per deck that runs it) at the player floor of $0.15. What the decks on file actually bought.Rotation runwayNo rotation scheduled for mark HNo announcement naming mark H has been published. Standard rotation dates are curated by hand from official announcements; a mark with no announced date carries none rather than a guess.30d sold0 units (-100% vs prior 30d)Units of THIS printing sold in the 30 days ending October 13, 2026, against the 30 days before that (4). Demand at a table and demand in the market are different measurements; this is the second one.Meta vs priceNot enough history (2 weeks)Spearman rank correlation of weekly share against weekly median price over the trailing 26 weeks, on the weeks carrying both. Printed only at 8 weeks or more; below that the count is stated instead of a coefficient off a handful of readings.
Meta share · % of Standard decklists (right axis)Median price · this print, $ (left axis)Units sold per day (bars)
Does the meta move the price? Share of Standard decklists running this card against this print's median sale price and units sold, day by day; the rank correlation above is printed once 8 weeks exist.
Fringe at 1.0% of Standard decklists, +0.0 pp on the prior window. A playset costs $0.26 at the cheapest legal print.
94.5% of card lines in these decklists matched a card in our catalog; an unmatched line is never counted. Online events only, not Regionals or Worlds. Tournament results →
Card text▾
Regulation markH
LegalStandard ✓legal · Expanded ✓legal
EvidenceThe specific observations the explanation rests on. If this row is thin, treat the explanation as thin — it is the only thing holding it up.
Evidence: item-basis daily bars, TCGplayer active listings, absorption read ("Insufficient data: 0 inventory observation(s) in the trailing 30d window (need >= 4).").
ConfidenceConfidenceHow much weight to put on the primary explanation, given how much of the evidence actually resolved. It qualifies the row above; it never adds to it.
Confidence: 0%, based on 2 days of observations.
What would disprove itWhat would disprove itThe observation that would break the primary explanation. It is what makes the reading falsifiable rather than unfalsifiable — and it is the thing to watch for next.
This read would be wrong if active listings rebound above 0 while sold median keeps falling.
CatalogCard identity: set, number, rarity, finish, release date. It dates from the printing itself, so an old reading here is expected and is not staleness.
Mar 22, 2024
2.6y
98%
No
Population censusA grader's published count of the copies it has slabbed at each grade. A record of what was submitted and kept, never the odds a copy grades.
Oct 12, 2026
1d
60%
No
Confirmed saleA completed transaction at a known price — the strongest evidence on this page. Prices are delivered (item + required shipping).
Sep 8, 2026
36d
50%
No
BGS 9 · HoloWhat every row above was gathered for — one printing, in this one finish and condition or grade. Change either switcher in the header and you are reading a different one; the page's own URL is the address of exactly this one.pq-quant-2026.10.0The version of the scoring and analytics formulas that produced everything on this page. Two figures computed under different versions are not comparable, which is why the version is stated rather than assumed.
Money flow11%no readingNo confirmed prints with a contemporaneous ask to classify against.
Book pressure11%no readingNeeds a 30-day inventory change, or book counts spanning ≥3 days that move at all and rest on ≥8 listings. Collection of `inventory_observations` began 2026-09-02.
Liquidity9%no readingFewer than two of the four participation readings could be measured — no trade count, and no book to read a queue or a seller base off.
Manipulation risk9%no readingNo visible ask book, so there is no control cost to band.
Relative strength7%no readingThe wall projection has ranked fewer than 20 cards on 30-day return, so a percentile here would be a rank of a handful dressed up as a market.
Seller concentration5%no readingThe venue attributes no seller identity to these asks.
Reprint risk5%no readingPrint status is unestablished — no shelf observation and no recorded reprint event.
Competitive meta+2A BONUS on top of the weighted composite, never a penalty: 20% of Standard decklists or more adds 8, 5% or more adds 5, and any measured play at all adds 2. A card nobody plays is not marked down for it. Measured on 1.0% of 22,383 Standard decklists in the last 30 days.
The bottom line is a weighted mean of the signals that reported, renormalised so their weights sum to 1. Nothing defaults to a neutral 50: an input with no evidence is reweighted away and its absence is charged as a confidence penalty. Risk rows (manipulation, concentration, reprint) enter inverted. Data quality carries no weight at all — it decides whether the verdict may be spoken, because knowing a lot about a card is not a reason to buy it. Competitive meta sits OUTSIDE the weighted mean as a capped bonus added after it: a card nobody plays is never marked down for that, and a card the meta is built on can be marked up for it.
The Booster Pack's most recent plotted day carries an observed sale.
Indexed to each product’s own first stored day = 100. Booster Pack in front, 23 behind · dashed = guide price, no sale that day.Each line is that product’s own price divided by its own first stored day and multiplied by 100, so every series starts on the dotted rule and the axis measures APPRECIATION rather than price. Dollars could not do this job here: a booster pack and a booster box differ by two orders of magnitude, and on a shared dollar axis the pack would sit flat on the floor of the plot however far it had actually travelled. The Booster Pack is the base unit and is drawn in front; the rest are drawn behind it, and each one’s own numbers are in the table below. A dashed stretch is a run of days with no recorded sale, carrying the provider’s daily guide value — a quoted price, never a trade.
Appreciation vs MSRP
ProductPriceMSRPvs MSRPEvery sealed product the catalog holds for this set, ordered by how standard a unit each is for tracking a set’s sealed price. PRICE is the product’s last stored day — a sale where one was recorded, the provider’s daily guide value where none was, and the row’s hover says which. MSRP is blank wherever no source is recorded against one, because an MSRP with nobody behind it is not a fact. VS MSRP is the price against that MSRP, as a percentage up to a doubling and as a multiple past it.
Single Pack Blister [Carvanha]$11.08——Temporal Forces Single Pack Blister [Carvanha]—Temporal Forces Single Pack Blister [Carvanha]. Quoted at $11.08 on Oct 12, 2026 — a guide price, with no sale recorded that day. No MSRP is recorded against this product, so there is nothing to measure a premium from; the blank is a missing MSRP, not a missing price.Booster Pack$11.25——Temporal Forces Booster Pack—Temporal Forces Booster Pack. Last sale $11.25 on Oct 13, 2026. No MSRP is recorded against this product, so there is nothing to measure a premium from; the blank is a missing MSRP, not a missing price.Single Pack Blister [Bellibolt]$11.43——Temporal Forces Single Pack Blister [Bellibolt]—Temporal Forces Single Pack Blister [Bellibolt]. Quoted at $11.43 on Oct 12, 2026 — a guide price, with no sale recorded that day. No MSRP is recorded against this product, so there is nothing to measure a premium from; the blank is a missing MSRP, not a missing price.Sleeved Booster Pack$11.67——Temporal Forces Sleeved Booster Pack—Temporal Forces Sleeved Booster Pack. Quoted at $11.67 on Oct 12, 2026 — a guide price, with no sale recorded that day. No MSRP is recorded against this product, so there is nothing to measure a premium from; the blank is a missing MSRP, not a missing price.Premium Checklane Blister [Baxcalibur]$17.06——Temporal Forces Premium Checklane Blister [Baxcalibur]—Temporal Forces Premium Checklane Blister [Baxcalibur]. Quoted at $17.06 on Oct 12, 2026 — a guide price, with no sale recorded that day. No MSRP is recorded against this product, so there is nothing to measure a premium from; the blank is a missing MSRP, not a missing price.Premium Checklane Blister [Togekiss]$20.48——Temporal Forces Premium Checklane Blister [Togekiss]—Temporal Forces Premium Checklane Blister [Togekiss]. Quoted at $20.48 on Oct 12, 2026 — a guide price, with no sale recorded that day. No MSRP is recorded against this product, so there is nothing to measure a premium from; the blank is a missing MSRP, not a missing price.Single Pack Blister [Set of 2]$23.79——Temporal Forces Single Pack Blister [Set of 2]—Temporal Forces Single Pack Blister [Set of 2]. Quoted at $23.79 on Oct 12, 2026 — a guide price, with no sale recorded that day. No MSRP is recorded against this product, so there is nothing to measure a premium from; the blank is a missing MSRP, not a missing price.3 Pack Blister [Cleffa]$30.56——Temporal Forces 3 Pack Blister [Cleffa]—Temporal Forces 3 Pack Blister [Cleffa]. Quoted at $30.56 on Oct 12, 2026 — a guide price, with no sale recorded that day. No MSRP is recorded against this product, so there is nothing to measure a premium from; the blank is a missing MSRP, not a missing price.
Temporal Forces Build & Battle Box at Target, SKU 1002893312 — Not read, no shelf price shown. Read Sep 15, 06:56 UTC. A Temporal Forces sealed product, not this card.
Not readTemporal Forces Sleeved Booster Pack28d agoTemporal Forces Sleeved Booster Pack at Target, SKU 1001539806 — Not read, no shelf price shown. Read Sep 15, 06:56 UTC. A Temporal Forces sealed product, not this card.
Not readTemporal Forces Sleeved Booster Pack28d agoTemporal Forces Sleeved Booster Pack at Target, SKU 1001030341 — Not read, no shelf price shown. Read Sep 15, 01:39 UTC. A Temporal Forces sealed product, not this card.
Not readTemporal Forces Sleeved Booster Pack28d agoTemporal Forces Sleeved Booster Pack at Target, SKU 1001035680 — Not read, no shelf price shown. Read Sep 15, 01:39 UTC. A Temporal Forces sealed product, not this card.
Not readTemporal Forces Sleeved Booster Pack28d agoTemporal Forces Sleeved Booster Pack at Target, SKU 1001035160 — Not read, no shelf price shown. Read Sep 15, 01:39 UTC. A Temporal Forces sealed product, not this card.
Not readTemporal Forces Sleeved Booster Pack28d agoTemporal Forces Sleeved Booster Pack at Target, SKU 1001035154 — Not read, no shelf price shown. Read Sep 15, 01:39 UTC. A Temporal Forces sealed product, not this card.
Risk-wtdRisk-wtdThe same return weighted by the odds of each grade, not just the 10 — the number to compare graders on, because a high P(10) at a high fee can lose to a lower one. A leading ≈ means the full grade distribution was unavailable and a coarser method stood in. Higher is better.
ACE
$24.39ACE Basic — the cheapest tier accepting single-card submissions, read 2026-10-06. £18.00 converted at GBP/USD 1.355 (2026-09-01) — a conversion, not a quoted USD price. Cheaper tiers you cannot use today: Core $16.26, Value $20.33.
51.2%95% interval 45.4%–57.0% on n=281. A share of what was submitted and kept, not submission odds.
$127.35What a 10 from this grader actually sells for. The superscript says what kind of evidence that is — a sale, an unsold listing, or the provider’s own modelled guide.
+12%+$11.55 on a $98.93 cost basis.
≈-16%Only 56% of the ACE distribution is priced, so this falls back to P(10)·ROI(10) + (1−P(10))·ROI(pooled sub-10 price).
BGS
$79.95BGS Express — the cheapest tier accepting single-card submissions, read 2026-09-01. Cheaper tiers you cannot use today: Base $14.95.
—The share of this card’s submissions to this grader that came back a 10, from its own population census. It is what WAS submitted and kept, not the odds your particular copy grades — a card people only submit when it looks perfect reads high here for that reason alone.
—No 10 price is on file for BGS, so no return can be computed for it — an absence, never a zero.
—Return if the card grades a 10 and sells at that price: (10 price − raw price − fee) over what you put in. The BEST case, before any probability is applied. Higher is better.
—Risk-weighted ROI withheld: no BGS population total, so P(10) has no honest denominator.
CGC
$20.00CGC Economy — the cheapest tier accepting single-card submissions, read 2026-10-06. Cheaper tiers you cannot use today: Bulk $17.00.
57.4%95% interval 52.8%–61.9% on n=444. A share of what was submitted and kept, not submission odds.
$134.99What a 10 from this grader actually sells for. The superscript says what kind of evidence that is — a sale, an unsold listing, or the provider’s own modelled guide.
+24%+$22.56 on a $94.54 cost basis.
≈-1%Only 33% of the CGC distribution is priced, so this falls back to P(10)·ROI(10) + (1−P(10))·ROI(pooled sub-10 price).
PSA
$59.99PSA Standard — the cheapest tier accepting single-card submissions, read 2026-10-06. Cheaper tiers you cannot use today: Value Bulk $24.99, Value $32.99.
39.4%95% interval 38.2%–40.7% on n=6033. A share of what was submitted and kept, not submission odds.
$289.56What a 10 from this grader actually sells for. The superscript says what kind of evidence that is — a sale, an unsold listing, or the provider’s own modelled guide.
+87%+$116.66 on a $134.53 cost basis.
+0%Risk-weighted across all 10 PSA rungs; 99% of the distribution carried its own price, the remaining 1% valued at the pooled sub-10 price.
SGC
$79.00†No published SGC fee verified — this is the generic fallback, not SGC's price.
—The share of this card’s submissions to this grader that came back a 10, from its own population census. It is what WAS submitted and kept, not the odds your particular copy grades — a card people only submit when it looks perfect reads high here for that reason alone.
—No 10 price is on file for SGC, so no return can be computed for it — an absence, never a zero.
—Return if the card grades a 10 and sells at that price: (10 price − raw price − fee) over what you put in. The BEST case, before any probability is applied. Higher is better.
—Risk-weighted ROI withheld: no SGC population total, so P(10) has no honest denominator. Fee is the generic $79.00 fallback — SGC's own published price is not in the fee table.
TAG
$59.95TAG Standard — the cheapest tier accepting single-card submissions, read 2026-10-06. Cheaper tiers you cannot use today: Basic $22.00.
—The share of this card’s submissions to this grader that came back a 10, from its own population census. It is what WAS submitted and kept, not the odds your particular copy grades — a card people only submit when it looks perfect reads high here for that reason alone.
$350.00What a 10 from this grader actually sells for. The superscript says what kind of evidence that is — a sale, an unsold listing, or the provider’s own modelled guide.
+126%+$169.13 on a $134.49 cost basis.
—Risk-weighted ROI withheld: no TAG population total, so P(10) has no honest denominator.
