Pikachu — HGSS03Raw · Holo · Near MintEvery price, print, listing and score on this page belongs to this one printing in this one condition or grade — switch either dropdown and you are looking at a different one.
The condition or grade being priced. Each one is a separate instrument that trades at its own price, so choosing one replaces every figure on the page. “All conditions” and “All grades” are a union of the siblings — their tape, listings and volume are combined, with one sibling named as the reference for price and analytics.
▲MarkupMarkupA sustained positive trend with inventory under control — the book is not refilling as fast as it is being taken.▾UndervaluedUndervaluedThe market price sits below the blended fair-value band — not merely below its midpoint. The blend and its four components are on the FAIR VALUE card; the wider the band, the weaker this call.⇈AccumulationAccumulationBoth directions agree over the flow window: net dollars cleared at or above the prevailing ask, AND the top-decile-notional prints skewed the same way. Direction of confirmed prints only — never a forecast.1D·ask0.0%1D return (ask-based)0.0%No print in this window — every bar closed on the same provider guide value, so the sold-price reading would be a confident 0%. This is the delivered ask floor's own change over the same window instead: a real move nobody has yet paid, not a sale.7D+4.4%7D return+4.4%Change in the headline market price against the close 7 observed bars back. Bars exist only for days this card actually traded, so the span can be longer than the label's calendar reading.30D+25.3%30D return+25.3%Change in the headline market price against the close 30 observed bars back. Bars exist only for days this card actually traded, so the span can be longer than the label's calendar reading.As of 07:47ZAs of 07:47ZThe market price, its 1D/7D/30D returns, the order book, the For Sale counts and today’s price bar as they stood when this page was built. The page itself is served from a shared cache, so this stamp — not the moment you loaded it — is how old these numbers are. Your browser re-reads them a moment after the page arrives and this line follows.
Mkt Price
$46.75item·0.0%
Last $56.98 · 4d
Mkt Price$46.75 itemThe venue’s published daily market guide, which the venue itself declares MODELLED. Nothing is confirmed to have traded at it, no copy is listed at it, and it is not our estimate — it is theirs. It is quoted on the ITEM basis — the basis every wall tile is quoted on — and it is what the chart plots on a day with no print of its own. Last confirmed fixed-price sale: $56.98 at 2026-10-09T04:21:11.580Z. Shipping was free, so delivered is the same number. One trade, not a statistic — the figure above it is the day's median.
Fair Value
$48.59delivered
≈$47.29 item · Band $23.84–$73.34
Fair Value$48.59 deliveredBand is ±50.9% of the point estimate: 2 of 4 components available (excluded: trend anchor — a trailing average on a confirmed rise, auction clearing — 35% of weight reweighted away, 18% confidence penalty), on 17 observation(s) in the trailing 30d. Thin samples and missing components widen the band 2.86x over the raw component spread. No recent clearing price: too few prints in the last 120h to say what it is trading at now. A weighted blend of independent estimates, quoted DELIVERED — item plus required shipping — where Mkt Price beside it may be item basis. Read the band, not the point: its width is the model's own confidence. On the ITEM basis TCGplayer’s guide is quoted on, that is about $47.29 — this card’s own prints carry a median delivered-minus-item wedge of $1.30, measured day by day, never an assumed postage rate.
Liquidity
73/100
Good liquidity
Liquidity73 /100How easily a position clears, scored 0–100. Four readings, equally weighted, each independently nullable: trade rate (the chance it trades today, from 30d units sold), trade breadth (how many of the last 30 days carried a trade), queue clearance (30d units sold against the units on the board) and seller dispersion (how many different people are selling it). A reading nobody can measure is absent and the rest reweight — never filled in with a zero.
30D Vol
118units▲+42.2%
units · vs prior 30d
30D Vol118 units118 units over the last 30 days, on TCGplayer and eBay. Newest reading Oct 10, 2026. Against 83 in the 30 days before.
For Sale
42units
33 sellers
For Sale42 unitsEvery active fixed-price ask with a known delivered price. Auctions are a separate market and are never counted here.
Graded Pop
2,603▲+9.0%
across 2 graders
Graded Pop2,603Every slab reported by every grader we hold a census for, pooled. A share of what was submitted and kept — not the odds a copy grades 10.
No live auction bids — this market has no resting bid book.
Cross-Market BasisAsks are live fixed-price listings at delivered prices (item + required shipping). No bid side exists: this market has no resting bid book. There are no live auction bids and no published buylist for this instrument, so the bid side is empty rather than synthesized from asks, price history or a spread assumption.——
AskSize
Ask sideLive fixed-price listings, priced DELIVERED — item plus required shipping. Cheapest first; a listing whose shipping is unknown has no delivered price and is excluded rather than guessed at.
$36.501
$36.50 · 1 unit1 cum.Ask size at this price, and the running total through it from the cheapest ask — 1 unit are buyable at or under $36.50 delivered. The shaded staircase behind the row IS that running total.
$38.152
$38.15 · 2 units3 cum.Ask size at this price, and the running total through it from the cheapest ask — 3 units are buyable at or under $38.15 delivered. The shaded staircase behind the row IS that running total.
$38.311
$38.31 · 1 unit4 cum.Ask size at this price, and the running total through it from the cheapest ask — 4 units are buyable at or under $38.31 delivered. The shaded staircase behind the row IS that running total.
Ask depth$1,954.19Ask depth$1,954.19Every live fixed-price ask summed at its DELIVERED price — what clearing the whole visible book would cost. There is no bid side to set it against: no auction has a bid on it and no buylist quotes this instrument, and an absent side is never drawn as a zero.
One candle per UTC day — the finest grain this market recordsOne candle per ISO week (Mon–Sun), rolled up from the daily barsOne candle per calendar month, rolled up from the daily barsitem — the sale price alone, excluding shipping. This is the basis TCGplayer’s own market guide is published on, and the basis every wall tile, screener row and watchlist quote uses, so it is what the headline compares against.delivered — item + required shipping, the basis every alarm, floor and fair value uses. A print whose shipping the venue never stated has no delivered price and is excluded from the bar rather than counted at its item price; a day with no priced print falls back to the guide, which is an item price and says so.
How each period is drawn. Candles and bars show the full observed open/high/low/close; line and area show the close alone. The DATA does not change with the mark.
Price scale (linear, log or percent), auto-scaling, and the note on exactly how these bars were built.
Expand the chart to the whole viewport. Same bars and same drawings — only the room they get changes.
Cursor — chart crosshair, pan and zoomTrend line — two pointsHorizontal line — one click, priced at the axisRay — two points, extended forwardZone — two cornersFibonacci retracement — anchor the move, start to endNote — click, then typeMeasure — drag for change, percent and barsMagnet — snap each new anchor to the nearest bar's open, high, low or close, so a line lands on an observation rather than between two of them.Nothing to clear — there are no drawings on this card.DRW
Fair valueUNDERVALUEDThe cheapest delivered ask sits more than 5% below the blended fair-value estimate (FAIR_VALUE_AT_FAIR_TOLERANCE_PCT).
Fair value $48.59 delivered, about $47.29 on the item basis; the cheapest delivered ask is 24.9% below it$48.59delivered-24.9%The cheapest delivered ask ($36.50) against the blended fair-value estimate.top 18%top 18% of 6,176 tracked on FV gap · Ranked against every tracked card as of Oct 12, 2026; the number above is live.
$36.50
Absorption
—Building historyToo few readings of the book to tell a drawdown from noise. The count is on the card — see the note below.
25 readings of this book so far, one per 1 day, over 30d. The direction reads once there are enough of them to tell a drawdown from noise.
Method▾
Each reading takes the venue's own listing count for this card in this condition — the whole book — at that instant. The direction is classified by the platform's absorption reading over that series: a book drawn down with demand behind it reads as accumulation, one that refills after a drawdown reads as distribution. Copies and sellers come from the cheapest asks we sample, not from the book, and are labelled as such. Sold units are confirmed prints from the live tape over the same span, and are shown only when the tape reaches back past the first reading.
The direction is classified over the platform-standard 30-day trailing window. That window is a scope, not a history: it contains exactly the readings counted on this card and no others — and only readings that counted the venue’s own book, never a sampled one trended against a counted one.
Supply
•Ample supply42 listed units against a 3.9/day pace is 10.7 days of stock. Under 7d reads tight, 30d or more reads heavy.
42 units listed across 33 sellers — 10.7d of stock at the 30-day pace of 3.9/day.
PopulationAll graders pooled2,603Every slab reported by every grader we hold a census for, as each of them states its own total. A share of what was submitted and kept — never the odds a copy grades 10. The bars below sum to 2,609, not 2,603: a grader can report a pooled rung and its qualified variants separately, so the stated total is the authority and the bars are what is chartable.CGC768Slabs CGC itself reports for this card. Switching tabs changes the whole chart below to that grader's own grade curve.PSA1,835Slabs PSA itself reports for this card. Switching tabs changes the whole chart below to that grader's own grade curve. The bars below sum to 1,841, not 1,835: a grader can report a pooled rung and its qualified variants separately, so the stated total is the authority and the bars are what is chartable.
1010 — 59 slabs, 2.3% of the 2,609 charted hereCGC 24 (Gem Mint 10 · Pristine 10) · PSA 359.59.5 — 9 slabs, 0.3% of the 2,609 charted hereCGC 999 — 360 slabs, 13.8% of the 2,609 charted hereCGC 96 · PSA 2648.58.5 — 180 slabs, 6.9% of the 2,609 charted hereCGC 178 · PSA 288 — 671 slabs, 25.7% of the 2,609 charted hereCGC 158 · PSA 5137.57.5 — 121 slabs, 4.6% of the 2,609 charted hereCGC 119 · PSA 277 — 524 slabs, 20.1% of the 2,609 charted hereCGC 55 · PSA 4696.56.5 — 42 slabs, 1.6% of the 2,609 charted hereCGC 4266 — 335 slabs, 12.8% of the 2,609 charted hereCGC 20 · PSA 3155.55.5 — 25 slabs, 1.0% of the 2,609 charted hereCGC 2555 — 140 slabs, 5.4% of the 2,609 charted hereCGC 12 · PSA 1284.54.5 — 9 slabs, 0.3% of the 2,609 charted hereCGC 944 — 18 slabs, 0.7% of the 2,609 charted hereCGC 3 · PSA 153.53.5 — 6 slabs, 0.2% of the 2,609 charted hereCGC 633 — 15 slabs, 0.6% of the 2,609 charted hereCGC 1 · PSA 142.52.5 — 1 slabs, 0.0% of the 2,609 charted hereCGC 122 — 9 slabs, 0.3% of the 2,609 charted herePSA 91.51.5 — 1 slabs, 0.0% of the 2,609 charted herePSA 111 — 73 slabs, 2.8% of the 2,609 charted herePSA 73AuthAuth — 11 slabs, 0.4% of the 2,609 charted hereCGC 10 (Authentic · Authentic Altered) · PSA 1
Listed · 33 sellers · $1,954.1942 unitsActive fixed-price asks with a known delivered price. Auctions are a separate market and never enter this count.Sold · 30d · 3.9/day118 unitsUnits over the last 30 days, on TCGplayer and eBay, against 83 in the 30 days before. Newest reading 2026-10-10.Graded · CGC 768 · PSA 1,8352,603 slabsEvery slab reported by every grader we hold a census for, pooled. A share of what was submitted and kept — not the odds your copy grades 10.
Print scarcity
•Set not coveredA set needs at least three cards carrying a price, a graded population and a pull rate at once before its print scale means anything. this set does not reach that, so there is nothing to rank this card against.
A set needs at least three cards carrying a price, a graded population and a pull rate at once before its print scale means anything. this set does not reach that, so there is nothing to rank this card against.
Competitive play▼Not Standard-legalPublished as not legal in Standard, and in none of the 22,201 Standard decklists in the last 30 days.
Not legal in Standard, and in none of the 22,201 Standard decklists across 329 events, last 30 days.
Player floor$0.29The cheapest currently-priced Standard-legal print of this card: Pikachu, Ascended Heroes. What it costs to put the card in a deck, which is not the same question as what THIS print is worth.Premium over floor161×This printing's headline price ($46.75) against the player floor ($0.29). What a player pays for THIS art rather than for the cheapest legal copy of the same card.
Why It's Moving
What changedWhat changedThe observable that moved, stated before any reason for it — the fact the rest of this panel has to account for.
Modelled guide price moved +4.4% over the trailing 7 days and +25.3% over 30 days, now at $46.75. Active TCGplayer listings fell 0% over the same 7 days to 0.
Primary explanationPrimary explanationThe reading the evidence best supports. It is an explanation, never a forecast, and it is only as good as the Evidence row two lines down.
Primary read: Price trend scored 90/100 (composite weight 31%). — the largest single contributor to the current MARKUP regime read.
AlternativeAlternativeA competing explanation the SAME evidence would also support. It is printed even when the primary looks strong: an explanation with no stated alternative is a story, not an analysis.
Alternative explanation: Relative strength scored 96/100 (composite weight 21%).. With 33 distinct sellers/observations in the trailing window, either read is defensible — this is not a high-conviction single-cause move.
EvidenceEvidenceWhat kind of fact this row is. A completed sale, a live ask and a calculated guide price are three different weights of evidence about the same number, and this column is the difference between them.
ObservedObservedThe day the fact was read — not the day the underlying event happened, and not today. An old date is an old reading.
AgeAgeHow long ago this row was read, as of the moment the page was computed.
ConfidenceConfidenceHow much weight this row carries where it feeds a model, from the resolver that matched it. Lower means a looser match or a thinner source, and a low-confidence row is reweighted rather than dropped.
ModelledModelledYes = a CALCULATED value (a guide price, an estimate); No = something actually observed (a sale, a listing, a census count). A modelled row is evidence about a model, not about the market.
What the market is actually asking right now — the cheapest delivered price, or the newest confirmed print when no ladder exists. The card’s verdict is where this line falls against the band.
$48.59Fair value$48.59The blend’s point estimate — the weighted centre of the four component reads listed below. It is the middle of a band, not a target: read the band’s width before the point.
$23.84The bottom of the stated fair-value band — the cheap end of the blend, not a floor and not a support level. A wider band is the model saying it is less sure, so the two ends are more informative together than the point between them.$73.34The top of the stated fair-value band — the rich end of the blend, not a ceiling and not a target. A wider band is the model saying it is less sure, so the two ends are more informative together than the point between them.
Sales VWAP$55.2562%Sales VWAP$55.25Time-decayed, unit-weighted mean delivered price of confirmed prints — the last 48h dominate.Weight 62% of the blend, after reweighting away the inputs with no evidence.Depth clearing$37.9338%Depth clearing$37.93VWAP of the cheapest tranche of the live delivered-ask ladder — the price at which real fixed-price supply actually clears.Weight 38% of the blend, after reweighting away the inputs with no evidence.Trend anchor$44.790%Trend anchor$44.79The rise is confirmed and this anchor (a trailing SMA) sits on the far side of what the card is printing — reweighted away, not blended against the move.Weight 0% of the blend, after reweighting away the inputs with no evidence.Auction clearingN/A—Auction clearingN/AUnavailable in the trailing 30d window — reweighted away, not defaulted.No evidence for this input, so it carries no weight — the blend is the other components, reweighted.
≈$47.29 item basis · ±50.9% band · 3 of 4 inputs · 17 obs / 30dBand is ±50.9% of the point estimate: 2 of 4 components available (excluded: trend anchor — a trailing average on a confirmed rise, auction clearing — 35% of weight reweighted away, 18% confidence penalty), on 17 observation(s) in the trailing 30d. Thin samples and missing components widen the band 2.86x over the raw component spread. No recent clearing price: too few prints in the last 120h to say what it is trading at now.
›24.9% under fair — buy at $36.50 delivered.
Market safety
▲Elevated riskA spike here outlives the 7-day window and not the 30-day one: it would move this week's return, and an ordinary month of this card's trading absorbs it.
$1,954 clears the cheap side — 10 days of turnover (0.37 book-months, 34 asks).
Book
10%·$228.17·$38.53 ask-19%Sweeping 10% of the visible book costs $228.17The next unbought ask after that sweep sits at $38.53 ask — -19% against today's cheapest.Visible asks only, at delivered prices. An unshipped listing has no delivered price and is not in this ladder.50%·$1,022·$47.22 ask-1%Sweeping 50% of the visible book costs $1,022The next unbought ask after that sweep sits at $47.22 ask — -1% against today's cheapest.Visible asks only, at delivered prices. An unshipped listing has no delivered price and is not in this ladder.80%·$1,598·$56.95 ask+20%Sweeping 80% of the visible book costs $1,598The next unbought ask after that sweep sits at $56.95 ask — +20% against today's cheapest.Visible asks only, at delivered prices. An unshipped listing has no delivered price and is not in this ladder.Book $1,954Total notional on the visible ask ladder, and the largest single seller's share of it. A book that is mostly one seller's inventory is one decision away from moving.Best ask vs fair · $36.50 vs $48.59-24.9%Best ask vs fair-24.9%$36.50 vs $48.59
Mechanics▾
Cost to +50%$1,954
clears the entire visible book
Days to absorb10
42 units to control
Book breadth1 level
42 units on the board
Book / 30d sold0.37x
30d traded $5,238
VenuesTCGplayer
The absorption ladder walks the visible delivered-price ask book cheapest-first: what each slice of the book costs, the ask it leaves marginal, and how far that sits from the last price the card actually traded at. Manipulation risk is the worse of two reads — how many days of this card’s own turnover it would take to absorb the cost of control, and whether the whole buyable book fits inside a single ordinary order.
Flow
—SteadyThis week's daily sold units overlap the middle half of the rest of the window, so no change in pace is separable from the noise. Trading at its own normal rate.
20 sold in 7d, 0.7× the 30d pace — 30d prints clear at $28.00 median, -23.3% vs the $36.50 floor.
This week 20 · last week 34 · 30d/wk 28
Recent prints
$37.99+4.1%2d ago$37.99 delivered, 1 unit, 2026-10-11T07:00:00.000ZMeasured against today's cheapest delivered ask — a print above it is information, not bad news.$8.50-76.7%2d ago$8.50 delivered, 1 unit, 2026-10-11T07:00:00.000ZMeasured against today's cheapest delivered ask — a print above it is information, not bad news.$49.00+34.2%3d ago$49.00 delivered, 1 unit, 2026-10-10T07:00:00.000ZMeasured against today's cheapest delivered ask — a print above it is information, not bad news.$31.99
Method▾
Daily units are the venue's own sold-quantity history, expanded off each bucket's real span, plus confirmed prints from the other side of the market. Prints come from the live sales tape at delivered prices. The floor is the cheapest delivered ask (item + required shipping) across venues — the same one FAIR VALUE prices against.
Over 30d: 17 confirmed print(s) (1 with no contemporaneous ask reference, excluded from net flow); net flow +$864.38 across 18 buy-side vs 0 sell-side unit(s); large prints (>= $81.38) were 25% of notional and skewed buy-side -> ACCUMULATING.
Bottom line
▲Buy77/100 on the weighted composite: at or above 65 is a buy, at or below 35 a sell, and everything between is a hold.
77/100 across 8 of 11 inputs. For: the cheapest ask is 24.9% under fair.
Value vs fair100Value vs fair100/100The cheapest delivered ask against the blended fair-value estimate, two points per percent. Above 50 the card is trading under what the evidence says it is worth. Withheld entirely when fair value declares itself UNKNOWN — a discount measured against an untrustworthy anchor is not a discount.Carries 17% of the composite.Price trend90Price trend90/1007-day and 30-day returns read against the noise of this card’s own series. Above 50 the price moved further than its own noise explains; below 50 it moved the other way. Withheld on a window with no confirmed print, where the line is the relay’s published guide and the return would be a reading of its revision schedule.Carries 13% of the composite.Relative strength96Relative strength96/100This card’s 30-day return as a percentile of every tracked card that has one. 50 is "moved with the market". Declines to speak until the ranked universe is large enough to mean it.Carries 7% of the composite.Book pressure70Book pressure70/100Supply leaving the market or refilling it. Prefers the 30-day inventory change; falls back to the venue's own listing count over the readings held, capped tighter because a shorter window is weaker evidence. Withheld on a count that never moves, or on a book so small that one listing's arrival pins the percent to a rail.Carries 11% of the composite.Liquidity73Liquidity73/100Four equally-weighted readings of what counterparties did: the chance it trades today, how many of the last 30 days carried a trade, 30-day units sold against the units on the board, and how many different people are selling it. A reading nobody can measure is absent and the rest reweight.Carries 9% of the composite.Money flow65Money flow65/100Confirmed prints split into buy-side and sell-side against the prevailing ask, on a log scale — one decade of imbalance earns the full swing, because 100:1 is a thinner sample saying what 10:1 already said.Carries 11% of the composite.Manipulation risk55Manipulation risk55/100RISK-ORIENTED. What it costs to walk the visible book up 50%, against both real trailing volume and one buyer’s cheque book. High here is bad, and it enters the composite inverted.Carries 9% of the composite, inverted: 55 risk entered as 45.Grading upside57Grading upside57/100Best expected return across grading vendors, half a point per percent — the optionality on top of the raw thesis, never the thesis itself.Carries 6% of the composite.
8 of 11 inputs · 83% weight · -9% confidence▾
Not reading yet: seller concentration, reprint risk, scarcity.
Value vs fair17%100The cheapest delivered ask against the blended fair-value estimate, two points per percent. Above 50 the card is trading under what the evidence says it is worth. Withheld entirely when fair value declares itself UNKNOWN — a discount measured against an untrustworthy anchor is not a discount.Price trend13%907-day and 30-day returns read against the noise of this card’s own series. Above 50 the price moved further than its own noise explains; below 50 it moved the other way. Withheld on a window with no confirmed print, where the line is the relay’s published guide and the return would be a reading of its revision schedule.Relative strength7%96This card’s 30-day return as a percentile of every tracked card that has one. 50 is "moved with the market". Declines to speak until the ranked universe is large enough to mean it.Book pressure11%70Supply leaving the market or refilling it. Prefers the 30-day inventory change; falls back to the venue's own listing count over the readings held, capped tighter because a shorter window is weaker evidence. Withheld on a count that never moves, or on a book so small that one listing's arrival pins the percent to a rail.
Slab premium
▲Strong slab premiumThe dearest priced rung is PSA 10 at $30,000.00, 821.9× the $36.50 raw reference (cheapest delivered ask).
A PSA 10 is worth $30,000.00 — 821.9× the $36.50 raw cheapest delivered ask.
Dearest slab per grading company
PSA 10$30,000.00822×PSA 10 — $30,000.00, 821.9× raw$30,000.00 · FANATICS · 2026-09-20CGC 10$909.0024.9×CGC 10 — $909.00, 24.9× raw$1,050.00 · FANATICS · 2026-09-27 · $768.00 · EBAY · 2026-08-26BGS 9$650.0017.8×BGS 9 — $650.00, 17.8× raw$650.00 · EBAY · 2026-10-07TAG 9$181.505.0×TAG 9 — $181.50, 5.0× raw$181.50 · EBAY · 2026-07-26Raw$36.50askA live listing. Nobody has paid this.1.0×Raw — $36.50, 1.0× rawThe cheapest copy actually listed for sale, delivered — item plus required shipping. An offer, not a price anybody has paid. Every multiple on this ladder is taken against it.
A PSA 10 fetches 3200% more than a CGC 10.
One rung down, a PSA 9 is $750.00 — 20.5× raw.
Grading ROI
▲GradePSA: +$486.59 expected, still +$348.55 at the 95% lower bound of the gem share — break-even needs 0% gems; observed 2% (95% floor 1%, n=1835).
Best on PSA: +$486.59 expected, still +$348.55 at the 95% lower bound of the gem share — break-even needs 0% gems; observed 2% (95% floor 1%, n=1835).
Odds of a 10 vs what it takes
PSA needs 0% tens to break even; the census shows 2%, with a 95% interval of 1% to 3% on 1835 slabs.
break-even 0.0%Break-even0.0%The 10 rate this submission would need just to cover the raw price and the fee. It is the white line on the meter above: the solid segment has to clear it before grading is worth doing at all.observed 1.9% [1.4%–2.6%] n=1835Observed 10 rate1.9%Measured over 1835 graded copies in the census, with a 95% interval of 1.4%–2.6% around it — the band on the meter IS that interval, and it is the width of the doubt, not of the opportunity. A small n makes it wide.
VendorVendorThe grading company, one row each. Rows are the graders we hold both a fee schedule and a population census for — a grader we cannot price is left out rather than estimated.
FeeFeeThe all-in submission cost per card at this grader: grading tier plus shipping both ways and insurance, as published. A † marks a fee we could not read from a published schedule and had to carry from a prior reading. Lower is better.
P(10)P(10)The share of this card’s submissions to this grader that came back a 10, from its own population census. It is what WAS submitted and kept, not the odds your particular copy grades — a card people only submit when it looks perfect reads high here for that reason alone.
10 price10 priceWhat a 10 from this grader actually sells for. The superscript says what kind of evidence that is — a sale, an unsold listing, or the provider’s own modelled guide.
ROI(10)ROI(10)Return if the card grades a 10 and sells at that price: (10 price − raw price − fee) over what you put in. The BEST case, before any probability is applied. Higher is better.
Pre-grade this card →Photograph your own copy front and back for centering, wear and the odds of each grade. An estimate, not a grade.
$36.50 raw (cheapest delivered ask) + $59.99 PSA Standard + $25.00 ship/ins = $121.49 · less 13.25% sale fee · 45d lockup
Share of what was submitted and kept — not the odds your copy grades 10.
Graded copies
2,609 copies
Slabs on record across PSA, CGC and ACE, summed over every grade. The model’s raw input — it is NOT the print run, because a card people grade often will show a large population off a small press run. Ungraded and sealed copies are invisible to it.
Method▾
Graded population is print run × how often anyone bothers grading it, and the second factor moves with VALUE — so population is divided by price^0.606, the elasticity fitted across 3,826 cards that carry a population, a price and a pull rate at once. That normalised count is turned into a SET pack scale using the card’s pull rate (every card in a set is an independent read on how many packs exist, pooled by median), then brought back down to this card by its own pull rate. The band is a tertile of the result across every card that clears the gates.
Nobody has ever published a Pokémon print run, and this does not recover one — it is an ORDER, not a count. It reads surviving graded supply across PSA, CGC and ACE, so ungraded and sealed stock are invisible to it. What it is checked against: the model puts Black & White at the bottom of the catalog and modern Scarlet & Violet at the top, which is where the smallest and largest print runs actually are.
Units of THIS printing sold in the 30 days ending October 11, 2026, against the 30 days before that (84). Demand at a table and demand in the market are different measurements; this is the second one.
Meta vs priceNot enough history (7 weeks)Spearman rank correlation of weekly share against weekly median price over the trailing 26 weeks, on the weeks carrying both. Printed only at 8 weeks or more; below that the count is stated instead of a coefficient off a handful of readings.
Meta share · % of Standard decklists (right axis)Median price · this print, $ (left axis)Units sold per day (bars)
Does the meta move the price? Share of Standard decklists running this card against this print's median sale price and units sold, day by day; the rank correlation above is printed once 8 weeks exist.
95.1% of card lines in these decklists matched a card in our catalog; an unmatched line is never counted. Online events only, not Regionals or Worlds. Tournament results →
Card text▾
HP70
TypesLightning
StageBasic
AttacksC RechargeCost: ColorlessFlip a coin. If heads, search your deck for a Lightning Energy card and attach it to Pikachu. Shuffle your deck afterward.LLCC Thunderbolt · 100Cost: Lightning · Lightning · Colorless · ColorlessDiscard all Energy attached to Pikachu.
WeaknessFighting +10
ResistanceMetal -20
Retreat1
LegalStandard ✗not legal · Expanded ✗not legal
EvidenceEvidenceThe specific observations the explanation rests on. If this row is thin, treat the explanation as thin — it is the only thing holding it up.
Evidence: item-basis daily bars, TCGplayer active listings, absorption read ("Over 30d: inventory -59.3%, cheap depth no data, sales velocity no data -> ABSORPTION.").
ConfidenceConfidenceHow much weight to put on the primary explanation, given how much of the evidence actually resolved. It qualifies the row above; it never adds to it.
Confidence: 40% (floor-confidence 58/100), based on 979 days of observations.
What would disprove itWhat would disprove itThe observation that would break the primary explanation. It is what makes the reading falsifiable rather than unfalsifiable — and it is the thing to watch for next.
This read would be wrong if active listings rebound above 0 while sold median keeps falling.
CatalogCard identity: set, number, rarity, finish, release date. It dates from the printing itself, so an old reading here is expected and is not staleness.
Feb 11, 2010
16.7y
98%
No
Live askA copy offered for sale right now. An ask is what a seller wants, not what anyone paid — it bounds the price from above until it clears.
Oct 13, 2026
40m
90%
No
Price statisticAn observed figure computed over several rows rather than one print — a delivered floor, a published median over a window.
Oct 13, 2026
40m
90%
No
Confirmed saleA completed transaction at a known price — the strongest evidence on this page. Prices are delivered (item + required shipping).
Oct 9, 2026
4d
85%
No
Inventory countHow many copies and listings stand on the book. What depth, supply and absorption are measured against.
Oct 13, 2026
40m
70%
No
Guide priceA calculated market guide — a model of where the product is trading. Never a confirmed sale, and always marked Modelled.
Oct 13, 2026
8h
60%
Yes
Population censusA grader's published count of the copies it has slabbed at each grade. A record of what was submitted and kept, never the odds a copy grades.
Oct 12, 2026
13h
60%
No
Raw · Holo · Near MintWhat every row above was gathered for — one printing, in this one finish and condition or grade. Change either switcher in the header and you are reading a different one; the page's own URL is the address of exactly this one.pq-quant-2026.10.0The version of the scoring and analytics formulas that produced everything on this page. Two figures computed under different versions are not comparable, which is why the version is stated rather than assumed.
-12.4%
3d ago
$31.99 delivered, 1 unit, 2026-10-10T07:00:00.000ZMeasured against today's cheapest delivered ask — a print above it is information, not bad news.
$28.00-23.3%3d ago$28.00 delivered, 1 unit, 2026-10-10T07:00:00.000ZMeasured against today's cheapest delivered ask — a print above it is information, not bad news.
$24.99-31.5%3d ago$24.99 delivered, 1 unit, 2026-10-10T07:00:00.000ZMeasured against today's cheapest delivered ask — a print above it is information, not bad news.
Liquidity9%73Four equally-weighted readings of what counterparties did: the chance it trades today, how many of the last 30 days carried a trade, 30-day units sold against the units on the board, and how many different people are selling it. A reading nobody can measure is absent and the rest reweight.
Money flow11%65Confirmed prints split into buy-side and sell-side against the prevailing ask, on a log scale — one decade of imbalance earns the full swing, because 100:1 is a thinner sample saying what 10:1 already said.
Manipulation risk9%55RISK-ORIENTED. What it costs to walk the visible book up 50%, against both real trailing volume and one buyer’s cheque book. High here is bad, and it enters the composite inverted.
Grading upside6%57Best expected return across grading vendors, half a point per percent — the optionality on top of the raw thesis, never the thesis itself.
Scarcity7%no readingNeither scarcity read is available: no pull rate on file for this card’s rarity, and no print-scale estimate for its set (or the set is inside its first 12 months, where graded population has not accumulated yet).
Seller concentration5%no readingThe venue attributes no seller identity to these asks.
Reprint risk5%no readingPrint status is unestablished — no shelf observation and no recorded reprint event.
The bottom line is a weighted mean of the signals that reported, renormalised so their weights sum to 1. Nothing defaults to a neutral 50: an input with no evidence is reweighted away and its absence is charged as a confidence penalty. Risk rows (manipulation, concentration, reprint) enter inverted. Data quality carries no weight at all — it decides whether the verdict may be spoken, because knowing a lot about a card is not a reason to buy it. Competitive meta sits OUTSIDE the weighted mean as a capped bonus added after it: a card nobody plays is never marked down for that, and a card the meta is built on can be marked up for it.
Risk-wtdRisk-wtdThe same return weighted by the odds of each grade, not just the 10 — the number to compare graders on, because a high P(10) at a high fee can lose to a lower one. A leading ≈ means the full grade distribution was unavailable and a coarser method stood in. Higher is better.
BGS
$79.95BGS Express — the cheapest tier accepting single-card submissions, read 2026-09-01. Cheaper tiers you cannot use today: Base $14.95.
—The share of this card’s submissions to this grader that came back a 10, from its own population census. It is what WAS submitted and kept, not the odds your particular copy grades — a card people only submit when it looks perfect reads high here for that reason alone.
—No 10 price is on file for BGS, so no return can be computed for it — an absence, never a zero.
—Return if the card grades a 10 and sells at that price: (10 price − raw price − fee) over what you put in. The BEST case, before any probability is applied. Higher is better.
—Risk-weighted ROI withheld: no BGS population total, so P(10) has no honest denominator.
CGC
$20.00CGC Economy — the cheapest tier accepting single-card submissions, read 2026-10-06. Cheaper tiers you cannot use today: Bulk $17.00.
3.1%95% interval 2.1%–4.6% on n=768. A share of what was submitted and kept, not submission odds.
$909.00What a 10 from this grader actually sells for. The superscript says what kind of evidence that is — a sale, an unsold listing, or the provider’s own modelled guide.
+868%+$707.06 on a $81.50 cost basis.
≈+54%Only 57% of the CGC distribution is priced, so this falls back to P(10)·ROI(10) + (1−P(10))·ROI(pooled sub-10 price).
PSA
$59.99PSA Standard — the cheapest tier accepting single-card submissions, read 2026-10-06. Cheaper tiers you cannot use today: Value Bulk $24.99, Value $32.99.
1.9%95% interval 1.4%–2.6% on n=1835. A share of what was submitted and kept, not submission odds.
$30,000.00What a 10 from this grader actually sells for. The superscript says what kind of evidence that is — a sale, an unsold listing, or the provider’s own modelled guide.
+21322%+$25,903.51 on a $121.49 cost basis.
+457%Risk-weighted across all 14 PSA rungs; 98% of the distribution carried its own price, the remaining 2% valued at the pooled sub-10 price.
TAG
$59.95TAG Standard — the cheapest tier accepting single-card submissions, read 2026-10-06. Cheaper tiers you cannot use today: Basic $22.00.
—The share of this card’s submissions to this grader that came back a 10, from its own population census. It is what WAS submitted and kept, not the odds your particular copy grades — a card people only submit when it looks perfect reads high here for that reason alone.
—No 10 price is on file for TAG, so no return can be computed for it — an absence, never a zero.
—Return if the card grades a 10 and sells at that price: (10 price − raw price − fee) over what you put in. The BEST case, before any probability is applied. Higher is better.
—Risk-weighted ROI withheld: no TAG population total, so P(10) has no honest denominator.
