Exeggutor — 013Raw · Japanese · Normal · 1st Edition · Near MintEvery price, print, listing and score on this page belongs to this one printing in this one condition or grade — switch either dropdown and you are looking at a different one.
A different printing of this card — a reverse holo, a promo stamp, another language. Choosing one NAVIGATES: every price, print, listing and score on the page belongs to that printing instead, because they are separate instruments that trade at different prices.The condition or grade being priced. Each one is a separate instrument that trades at its own price, so choosing one replaces every figure on the page. “All conditions” and “All grades” are a union of the siblings — their tape, listings and volume are combined, with one sibling named as the reference for price and analytics.
∅Illiquid / UnknownIlliquid / UnknownThe classifier refused to call one: too little liquidity or too small a sample to test any rule. The absence of a read, never a tenth regime.•At Fair ValueAt Fair ValueThe market price is inside the blended fair-value band, so no direction is called. A wide band puts more prices inside it, which is why the band is shown and not just the point.As of 01:21ZAs of 01:21ZThe market price, its 1D/7D/30D returns, the order book, the For Sale counts and today’s price bar as they stood when this page was built. The page itself is served from a shared cache, so this stamp — not the moment you loaded it — is how old these numbers are. Your browser re-reads them a moment after the page arrives and this line follows.
Mkt Price
$14.26item—
Last $14.26 · 22d
Mkt Price$14.26 itemMedian item price of the confirmed sales in the last 30 days — item basis, shipping not included. The newest day the chart can draw is older than that, or too thin to median, so the price is taken over the whole month of trades instead (D-1057). It is the number the wall tile quotes. Last confirmed fixed-price sale: $14.26 at 2026-10-15T00:21:56.953Z. Shipping was free, so delivered is the same number. One trade, not a statistic — the figure above it is the day's median.
Fair Value
$14.67delivered
Band $12.10–$17.24
Fair Value$14.67 deliveredBand is ±17.5% of the point estimate: 1 of 4 components available (excluded: depth clearing, trend anchor — diverges from the others, auction clearing — 60% of weight reweighted away, 30% confidence penalty), on 3 observation(s) in the trailing 30d. Thin samples and missing components widen the band 3.99x over the raw component spread. No recent clearing price: too few prints in the last 120h to say what it is trading at now. A weighted blend of independent estimates, quoted DELIVERED — item plus required shipping — where Mkt Price beside it may be item basis. Read the band, not the point: its width is the model's own confidence.
Liquidity
20/100
Thin liquidity
Liquidity20 /100How easily a position clears, scored 0–100. Four readings, equally weighted, each independently nullable: trade rate (the chance it trades today, from 30d units sold), trade breadth (how many of the last 30 days carried a trade), queue clearance (30d units sold against the units on the board) and seller dispersion (how many different people are selling it). A reading nobody can measure is absent and the rest reweight — never filled in with a zero.
30D Vol
13units▲+1200%
units · vs prior 30d
30D Vol13 units13 units over the last 30 days, on TCGplayer and eBay. Newest reading Oct 15, 2026. Against 1 in the 30 days before.
For Sale
6units
3 sellers
For Sale6 unitsEvery active fixed-price ask with a known delivered price. Auctions are a separate market and are never counted here.
Graded Pop
75
across 2 graders
Graded Pop75Every slab reported by every grader we hold a census for, pooled. A share of what was submitted and kept — not the odds a copy grades 10.
How this summary is madeThe first sentence is written by a language model from this card’s own data. The second is computed from the live numbers on this page every time it loads, so it moves with the market.
One candle per UTC day — the finest grain this market recordsOne candle per ISO week (Mon–Sun), rolled up from the daily barsOne candle per calendar month, rolled up from the daily barsitem — the sale price alone, excluding shipping. This is the basis TCGplayer’s own market guide is published on, and the basis every wall tile, screener row and watchlist quote uses, so it is what the headline compares against.delivered — item + required shipping, the basis every alarm, floor and fair value uses. A print whose shipping the venue never stated has no delivered price and is excluded from the bar rather than counted at its item price; a day with no priced print falls back to the guide, which is an item price and says so.
How each period is drawn. Candles and bars show the full observed open/high/low/close; line and area show the close alone. The DATA does not change with the mark.
Price scale (linear, log or percent), auto-scaling, and the note on exactly how these bars were built.
Expand the chart to the whole viewport. Same bars and same drawings — only the room they get changes.
Cursor — chart crosshair, pan and zoomTrend line — two pointsHorizontal line — one click, priced at the axisRay — two points, extended forwardZone — two cornersFibonacci retracement — anchor the move, start to endNote — click, then typeMeasure — drag for change, percent and barsMagnet — snap each new anchor to the nearest bar's open, high, low or close, so a line lands on an observation rather than between two of them.Nothing to clear — there are no drawings on this card.DRW
Fair valueFAIRThe cheapest delivered ask is within 5% of the blended fair-value estimate (FAIR_VALUE_AT_FAIR_TOLERANCE_PCT).
Fair value $14.67 delivered; the cheapest delivered ask is 2.8% below it$14.67delivered-2.8%The cheapest delivered ask ($14.26) against the blended fair-value estimate.top 31%top 31% of 2,371 tracked on FV gap · Ranked against every tracked card as of Nov 5, 2026; the number above is live.
$14.26
Supply
•Ample supply6 listed units against a 0.4/day pace is 13.8 days of stock. Under 7d reads tight, 30d or more reads heavy.
6 units listed across 3 sellers — 13.8d of stock at the 30-day pace of 0.4/day.
PopulationAll graders pooled75Every slab reported by every grader we hold a census for, as each of them states its own total. A share of what was submitted and kept — never the odds a copy grades 10.CGC16Slabs CGC itself reports for this card. Switching tabs changes the whole chart below to that grader's own grade curve.PSA59Slabs PSA itself reports for this card. Switching tabs changes the whole chart below to that grader's own grade curve.
321010 — 32 slabs, 42.7% of the 75 charted hereCGC 6 (Gem Mint 10 · Pristine 10) · PSA 2619.59.5 — 1 slabs, 1.3% of the 75 charted hereCGC 12399 — 23 slabs, 30.7% of the 75 charted hereCGC 4 · PSA 1918.58.5 — 1 slabs, 1.3% of the 75 charted hereCGC 11188 — 11 slabs, 14.7% of the 75 charted hereCGC 3 · PSA 817.57.5 — 1 slabs, 1.3% of the 75 charted hereCGC 1377 — 3 slabs, 4.0% of the 75 charted herePSA 3166 — 1 slabs, 1.3% of the 75 charted herePSA 1255 — 2 slabs, 2.7% of the 75 charted herePSA 2
Listed · 3 sellers · $88.016 unitsActive fixed-price asks with a known delivered price. Auctions are a separate market and never enter this count.Sold · 30d · 0.4/day13 unitsUnits over the last 30 days, on TCGplayer and eBay, against 1 in the 30 days before. Newest reading 2026-10-15.Graded · CGC 16 · PSA 5975 slabsEvery slab reported by every grader we hold a census for, pooled. A share of what was submitted and kept — not the odds your copy grades 10.
Gem rate
Print scarcity
•Set not coveredA set needs at least three cards carrying a price, a graded population and a pull rate at once before its print scale means anything. this set does not reach that, so there is nothing to rank this card against.
A set needs at least three cards carrying a price, a graded population and a pull rate at once before its print scale means anything. this set does not reach that, so there is nothing to rank this card against.
LightModerateHeavy
Model inputs
Graded copies75 copies
Why It's Moving
What changedWhat changedThe observable that moved, stated before any reason for it — the fact the rest of this panel has to account for.
The median of the last 30 days’ confirmed sales is $14.26.
Primary explanationPrimary explanationThe reading the evidence best supports. It is an explanation, never a forecast, and it is only as good as the Evidence row two lines down.
Primary read: Liquidity scored 20/100 (composite weight 38%). — the largest single contributor to the current ILLIQUID_UNKNOWN regime read.
AlternativeAlternativeA competing explanation the SAME evidence would also support. It is printed even when the primary looks strong: an explanation with no stated alternative is a story, not an analysis.
Alternative explanation: Data quality scored 22/100 (composite weight 24%).. With 3 distinct sellers/observations in the trailing window, either read is defensible — this is not a high-conviction single-cause move.
Evidence
Provenance▾
EvidenceEvidenceWhat kind of fact this row is. A completed sale, a live ask and a calculated guide price are three different weights of evidence about the same number, and this column is the difference between them.
ObservedObservedThe day the fact was read — not the day the underlying event happened, and not today. An old date is an old reading.
AgeAgeHow long ago this row was read, as of the moment the page was computed.
ConfidenceConfidenceHow much weight this row carries where it feeds a model, from the resolver that matched it. Lower means a looser match or a thinner source, and a low-confidence row is reweighted rather than dropped.
ModelledModelledYes = a CALCULATED value (a guide price, an estimate); No = something actually observed (a sale, a listing, a census count). A modelled row is evidence about a model, not about the market.
What the market is actually asking right now — the cheapest delivered price, or the newest confirmed print when no ladder exists. The card’s verdict is where this line falls against the band.
$14.67Fair value$14.67The blend’s point estimate — the weighted centre of the four component reads listed below. It is the middle of a band, not a target: read the band’s width before the point.
Sales VWAP$14.67Trend anchor$13.09
$12.10The bottom of the stated fair-value band — the cheap end of the blend, not a floor and not a support level. A wider band is the model saying it is less sure, so the two ends are more informative together than the point between them.$17.24The top of the stated fair-value band — the rich end of the blend, not a ceiling and not a target. A wider band is the model saying it is less sure, so the two ends are more informative together than the point between them.
Sales VWAP$14.67100%Sales VWAP$14.67Time-decayed, unit-weighted mean delivered price of confirmed prints — the last 48h dominate.Weight 100% of the blend, after reweighting away the inputs with no evidence.Depth clearingN/A—Depth clearingN/AUnavailable in the trailing 30d window — reweighted away, not defaulted.No evidence for this input, so it carries no weight — the blend is the other components, reweighted.Trend anchor$13.090%Trend anchor$13.09Sits further from the decayed print VWAP than one print-dispersion unit — a trailing average of a price the market has left behind, reweighted away.Weight 0% of the blend, after reweighting away the inputs with no evidence.Auction clearingN/A—Auction clearingN/AUnavailable in the trailing 30d window — reweighted away, not defaulted.No evidence for this input, so it carries no weight — the blend is the other components, reweighted.
±17.5% band · 2 of 4 inputs · 3 obs / 30dBand is ±17.5% of the point estimate: 1 of 4 components available (excluded: depth clearing, trend anchor — diverges from the others, auction clearing — 60% of weight reweighted away, 30% confidence penalty), on 3 observation(s) in the trailing 30d. Thin samples and missing components widen the band 3.99x over the raw component spread. No recent clearing price: too few prints in the last 120h to say what it is trading at now.
›Priced at fair, and no venue has a priceable delivered ask right now.
Market safety
▼Low riskOrdinary trading absorbs a spike here inside a week — less than 7 days of this card's own turnover — and taking control needs more than one ordinary order.
$88.01 clears the cheap side — 4.7 days of turnover (0.47 book-months, 3 asks).
Book
10%·$57.04·$14.26 ask-3%Sweeping 10% of the visible book costs $57.04The next unbought ask after that sweep sits at $14.26 ask — -3% against today's cheapest.Visible asks only, at delivered prices. An unshipped listing has no delivered price and is not in this ladder.50%·$57.04·$14.26 ask-3%Sweeping 50% of the visible book costs $57.04The next unbought ask after that sweep sits at $14.26 ask — -3% against today's cheapest.Visible asks only, at delivered prices. An unshipped listing has no delivered price and is not in this ladder.80%·$72.03·$14.99 ask+2%Sweeping 80% of the visible book costs $72.03The next unbought ask after that sweep sits at $14.99 ask — +2% against today's cheapest.Visible asks only, at delivered prices. An unshipped listing has no delivered price and is not in this ladder.Book $88.01Total notional on the visible ask ladder, and the largest single seller's share of it. A book that is mostly one seller's inventory is one decision away from moving.Best ask vs fair · $14.26 vs $14.67-2.8%Best ask vs fair-2.8%$14.26 vs $14.67
Mechanics▾
Cost to +50%$88.01
clears the entire visible book
Days to absorb4.7
6 units to control
Book breadth1 level
6 units on the board
Book / 30d sold0.47x
30d traded $187.83
The absorption ladder walks the visible delivered-price ask book cheapest-first: what each slice of the book costs, the ask it leaves marginal, and how far that sits from the last price the card actually traded at. Manipulation risk is the worse of two reads — how many days of this card’s own turnover it would take to absorb the cost of control, and whether the whole buyable book fits inside a single ordinary order.
Flow
—SteadyThis week's daily sold units overlap the middle half of the rest of the window, so no change in pace is separable from the noise. Trading at its own normal rate.
13 sold in 7d, 4.3× the 30d pace — 30d prints clear at $14.63 median.
This week 13 · last week 0 · 30d/wk 3
Recent prints
$14.26·×422d ago$14.26 delivered, 4 units, 2026-10-15T00:21:56.953Z$14.9922d ago$14.99 delivered, 1 unit, 2026-10-15T00:21:56.927Z$15.9822d ago$15.98 delivered, 1 unit, 2026-10-15T00:21:56.893Z$13.3822d ago$13.38 delivered, 1 unit, 2026-10-15T00:00:00.000Z
Method▾
Daily units are the venue's own sold-quantity history, expanded off each bucket's real span, plus confirmed prints from the other side of the market. Prints come from the live sales tape at delivered prices. The floor is the cheapest delivered ask (item + required shipping) across venues — the same one FAIR VALUE prices against.
Bottom line
—No callUnder half the model had evidence, so the score is a statement about the inputs that reported rather than about the card. No call until more of them do.
52/100 across 5 of 11 inputs. For: controlling the book costs more than the card trades. Against: liquidity reads 20/100. That is under half the model, so no call is made on it.
Liquidity20Liquidity20/100Four equally-weighted readings of what counterparties did: the chance it trades today, how many of the last 30 days carried a trade, 30-day units sold against the units on the board, and how many different people are selling it. A reading nobody can measure is absent and the rest reweight.Carries 9% of the composite.Manipulation risk20Manipulation risk20/100RISK-ORIENTED. What it costs to walk the visible book up 50%, against both real trailing volume and one buyer’s cheque book. High here is bad, and it enters the composite inverted.Carries 9% of the composite, inverted: 20 risk entered as 80.Value vs fair56Value vs fair56/100The cheapest delivered ask against the blended fair-value estimate, two points per percent. Above 50 the card is trading under what the evidence says it is worth. Withheld entirely when fair value declares itself UNKNOWN — a discount measured against an untrustworthy anchor is not a discount.Carries 17% of the composite.Relative strength51Relative strength51/100This card’s 30-day return as a percentile of every tracked card that has one. 50 is "moved with the market". Declines to speak until the ranked universe is large enough to mean it.Carries 7% of the composite.Grading upside50Grading upside50/100Best expected return across grading vendors, half a point per percent — the optionality on top of the raw thesis, never the thesis itself.Carries 6% of the composite.
5 of 11 inputs · 48% weight · -26% confidence▾
Not reading yet: price trend, money flow, book pressure, seller concentration, reprint risk, scarcity.
Liquidity9%20Four equally-weighted readings of what counterparties did: the chance it trades today, how many of the last 30 days carried a trade, 30-day units sold against the units on the board, and how many different people are selling it. A reading nobody can measure is absent and the rest reweight.Manipulation risk9%20RISK-ORIENTED. What it costs to walk the visible book up 50%, against both real trailing volume and one buyer’s cheque book. High here is bad, and it enters the composite inverted.Value vs fair17%56The cheapest delivered ask against the blended fair-value estimate, two points per percent. Above 50 the card is trading under what the evidence says it is worth. Withheld entirely when fair value declares itself UNKNOWN — a discount measured against an untrustworthy anchor is not a discount.Relative strength7%51This card’s 30-day return as a percentile of every tracked card that has one. 50 is "moved with the market". Declines to speak until the ranked universe is large enough to mean it.
•Moderate gem · PSA 44%PSA issued a 10 on 44.1% of its 59 slabs of this printing. No other grader has 30+ slabs of this printing on file, so there is nothing to choose between. Easy at 60% or more, moderate from 35%, hard under 35%. Only graders with 30+ slabs on file are compared.
PSA gems 44.1% of 59 slabs — the only grader with a census to compare.
10 rate by grader
PSA44.1%PSA 1026 of 59PSA: 26 of the 59 PSA slabs on file are a 10 (PSA 10) — 44.1%, 95% interval 32.2%–56.7%.CGC37.5%Gem Mint 10 + Pristine 106 of 16 · thinCGC: 6 of the 16 CGC slabs on file are a 10 (Gem Mint 10 + Pristine 10) — 37.5%, 95% interval 18.5%–61.4%. Under 30 slabs, so it is shown but never compared or recommended.
Share of what was submitted and kept — not the odds your copy grades 10.
Slab premium
▲Strong slab premiumThe dearest priced rung is PSA 10 at $200.00 — its last sale, on May 6, 2026, 14.0× the $14.26 raw reference (cheapest delivered ask).
A PSA 10 is worth $200.00 — 14.0× the $14.26 raw cheapest delivered ask — its last sale, on May 6, 2026.
Dearest slab per grading company
PSA 10$200.0014.0×PSA 10 — $200.00, 14.0× rawCGC 9.5$98.00guide Nov 5The provider’s MODELLED value for this grade — not a sale and not even an offer. Often extrapolated from the grades that did sell. As of Nov 5, 2026.6.9×CGC 9.5 — $98.00, 6.9× rawRaw$14.26askA live listing. Nobody has paid this.1.0×Raw — $14.26, 1.0× rawThe cheapest copy actually listed for sale, delivered — item plus required shipping. An offer, not a price anybody has paid. Every multiple on this ladder is taken against it.
PSA 10 is the dearest slab on the board at $200.00 — its last sale, on May 6, 2026; the next priced grader is CGC 9.5 at $98.00 — and that is the provider’s modelled value as of Nov 5, 2026, not a sale.
One rung down, a PSA 8 is $57.00 — 4.0× raw.
Grading ROI
▼Don't gradePSA: +$1.94 expected at the observed gem share, but -$13.47 at its 95% lower bound — the population sample is too small to support the submission. Break-even needs 43% gems; observed 44% (95% floor 32%, n=59).
Best on PSA: +$1.94 expected at the observed gem share, but -$13.47 at its 95% lower bound — the population sample is too small to support the submission. Break-even needs 43% gems; observed 44% (95% floor 32%, n=59).
Odds of a 10 vs what it takes
PSA needs 43% tens to break even; the census shows 44%, with a 95% interval of 32% to 57% on 59 slabs.
break-even 42.6%Break-even42.6%The 10 rate this submission would need just to cover the raw price and the fee. It is the white line on the meter above: the solid segment has to clear it before grading is worth doing at all.observed 44.1% [32.2%–56.7%] n=59Observed 10 rate44.1%Measured over 59 graded copies in the census, with a 95% interval of 32.2%–56.7% around it — the band on the meter IS that interval, and it is the width of the doubt, not of the opportunity. A small n makes it wide.
VendorVendorThe grading company, one row each. Rows are the graders we hold both a fee schedule and a population census for — a grader we cannot price is left out rather than estimated.
FeeFeeThe all-in submission cost per card at this grader: grading tier plus shipping both ways and insurance, as published. A † marks a fee we could not read from a published schedule and had to carry from a prior reading. Lower is better.
P(10)P(10)The share of this card’s submissions to this grader that came back a 10, from its own population census. It is what WAS submitted and kept, not the odds your particular copy grades — a card people only submit when it looks perfect reads high here for that reason alone.
10 price10 priceWhat a 10 from this grader actually sells for. The superscript says what kind of evidence that is — a sale, an unsold listing, or the provider’s own modelled guide.
ROI(10)ROI(10)Return if the card grades a 10 and sells at that price: (10 price − raw price − fee) over what you put in. The BEST case, before any probability is applied. Higher is better.
Pre-grade this card →Photograph your own copy front and back for centering, wear and the odds of each grade. An estimate, not a grade.
$14.26 raw (cheapest delivered ask) + $59.99 PSA Standard + $25.00 ship/ins = $99.25 · less 13.25% sale fee · 45d lockup
Share of what was submitted and kept — not the odds your copy grades 10.
Graded copies
75 copies
Slabs on record across PSA, CGC and ACE, summed over every grade. The model’s raw input — it is NOT the print run, because a card people grade often will show a large population off a small press run. Ungraded and sealed copies are invisible to it.
Method▾
Graded population is print run × how often anyone bothers grading it, and the second factor moves with VALUE — so population is divided by price^0.606, the elasticity fitted across 3,826 cards that carry a population, a price and a pull rate at once. That normalised count is turned into a SET pack scale using the card’s pull rate (every card in a set is an independent read on how many packs exist, pooled by median), then brought back down to this card by its own pull rate. The band is a tertile of the result across every card that clears the gates.
Nobody has ever published a Pokémon print run, and this does not recover one — it is an ORDER, not a count. It reads surviving graded supply across PSA, CGC and ACE, so ungraded and sealed stock are invisible to it. What it is checked against: the model puts Black & White at the bottom of the catalog and modern Scarlet & Violet at the top, which is where the smallest and largest print runs actually are.
EvidenceThe specific observations the explanation rests on. If this row is thin, treat the explanation as thin — it is the only thing holding it up.
Evidence: item-basis daily bars, absorption read ("Insufficient data: 0 inventory observation(s) in the trailing 30d window (need >= 4).").
ConfidenceConfidenceHow much weight to put on the primary explanation, given how much of the evidence actually resolved. It qualifies the row above; it never adds to it.
Confidence: 90% (floor-confidence 18/100), based on 37 days of observations.
What would disprove itWhat would disprove itThe observation that would break the primary explanation. It is what makes the reading falsifiable rather than unfalsifiable — and it is the thing to watch for next.
This read would be wrong if the price reverses over the next 7 days.
CatalogCard identity: set, number, rarity, finish, release date. It dates from the printing itself, so an old reading here is expected and is not staleness.
May 24, 2002
24.5y
98%
No
Live askA copy offered for sale right now. An ask is what a seller wants, not what anyone paid — it bounds the price from above until it clears.
Oct 27, 2026
9d
90%
No
Price statisticAn observed figure computed over several rows rather than one print — a delivered floor, a published median over a window.
Oct 6, 2026
31d
90%
No
Confirmed saleA completed transaction at a known price — the strongest evidence on this page. Prices are delivered (item + required shipping).
Oct 15, 2026
22d
85%
No
Inventory countHow many copies and listings stand on the book. What depth, supply and absorption are measured against.
Oct 6, 2026
31d
70%
No
Guide priceA calculated market guide — a model of where the product is trading. Never a confirmed sale, and always marked Modelled.
Nov 5, 2026
1d
60%
Yes
Population censusA grader's published count of the copies it has slabbed at each grade. A record of what was submitted and kept, never the odds a copy grades.
Nov 5, 2026
23h
60%
No
Raw · Japanese · Normal · 1st Edition · Near MintWhat every row above was gathered for — one printing, in this one finish and condition or grade. Change either switcher in the header and you are reading a different one; the page's own URL is the address of exactly this one.pq-quant-2026.10.0The version of the scoring and analytics formulas that produced everything on this page. Two figures computed under different versions are not comparable, which is why the version is stated rather than assumed.
The 12 most-traded cards by dollar volume over the last 30 days
#
Card
SetSetThe set this printing belongs to. Sets differ in print run and age, which is most of why two cards at the same price behave differently.
Trend 30DTrend 30DThe last 30 days of price, drawn from a zero-independent scale. The shape is the reading — the level is the Price column beside it.
30D30DPrice change over the last 30 calendar days, signed. A dash when the series has no price close enough to 30 days ago to measure from.
PricePriceThe card’s current market price as the wall quotes it (an item price, before shipping).
30d vol30d volume30d volumeDollars traded over the last 30 days — units sold each day times that day’s price, summed. The same figure the wall sorts by, and the order this list is in.
FV GapFV GapPrice against fair value, signed. NEGATIVE is below the model — the card trades under its fair value — which is the opposite direction from the Pop 30D column’s colouring.
LiqLiqLiquidity, 0–100 — how easily a position clears, never whether it is cheap. Four readings, equally weighted, each independently nullable: trade rate (the chance it trades today, from 30d units sold), trade breadth (how many of the last 30 days carried a trade), queue clearance (30d units sold against the units on the board) and seller dispersion (how many different people are selling it). A reading nobody can measure is absent and the rest reweight — never filled in with a zero.
VelocityVelocityConfirmed sales per day. Higher means a thicker tape, so every other figure in the row rests on more evidence.
Days InvDays InvHow many days the listed supply would take to clear at the current sale pace. Lower is a tighter market; a very high number usually means the pace, not the supply, is the problem.
SupplySupplyUnits listed for sale right now across the venues we track. It is the raw count of asks, not what is buyable at any one price.
Pop 30DPop 30DChange in graded population over 30 days. Rising means supply of slabs is growing, which is the ordinary up-is-up reading and generally NOT good for price.
Grading upside6%50Best expected return across grading vendors, half a point per percent — the optionality on top of the raw thesis, never the thesis itself.
Price trend13%no readingNo price history in the 7- and 30-day windows, or no confirmed print in 30 days — the line is the relay’s guide.
Money flow11%no readingNo confirmed prints with a contemporaneous ask to classify against.
Book pressure11%no readingNeeds a 30-day inventory change, or book counts spanning ≥3 days that move at all and rest on ≥8 listings. Collection of `inventory_observations` began 2026-09-02.
Scarcity7%no readingNeither scarcity read is available: no pull rate on file for this card’s rarity, and no print-scale estimate for its set (or the set is inside its first 12 months, where graded population has not accumulated yet).
Seller concentration5%no readingThe venue attributes no seller identity to these asks.
Reprint risk5%no readingPrint status is unestablished — no shelf observation and no recorded reprint event.
The bottom line is a weighted mean of the signals that reported, renormalised so their weights sum to 1. Nothing defaults to a neutral 50: an input with no evidence is reweighted away and its absence is charged as a confidence penalty. Risk rows (manipulation, concentration, reprint) enter inverted. Data quality carries no weight at all — it decides whether the verdict may be spoken, because knowing a lot about a card is not a reason to buy it. Competitive meta sits OUTSIDE the weighted mean as a capped bonus added after it: a card nobody plays is never marked down for that, and a card the meta is built on can be marked up for it.
Risk-wtdRisk-wtdThe same return weighted by the odds of each grade, not just the 10 — the number to compare graders on, because a high P(10) at a high fee can lose to a lower one. A leading ≈ means the full grade distribution was unavailable and a coarser method stood in. Higher is better.
CGC
$20.00CGC Economy — the cheapest tier accepting single-card submissions, read 2026-10-06. Cheaper tiers you cannot use today: Bulk $17.00.
37.5%95% interval 18.5%–61.4% on n=16. A share of what was submitted and kept, not submission odds.
—No 10 price is on file for CGC, so no return can be computed for it — an absence, never a zero.
—Return if the card grades a 10 and sells at that price: (10 price − raw price − fee) over what you put in. The BEST case, before any probability is applied. Higher is better.
—Risk-weighted ROI withheld: no CGC price at grade 10 at any basis.
PSA
$59.99PSA Standard — the cheapest tier accepting single-card submissions, read 2026-10-06. Cheaper tiers you cannot use today: Value Bulk $24.99, Value $32.99.
44.1%95% interval 32.2%–56.7% on n=59. A share of what was submitted and kept, not submission odds.
$200$200.00. What a 10 from this grader actually sells for. The superscript says what kind of evidence that is — a sale, an unsold listing, or the provider’s own modelled guide.
+75%+$74.25 on a $99.25 cost basis.
≈+1%Only 90% of the PSA distribution is priced, so this falls back to P(10)·ROI(10) + (1−P(10))·ROI(pooled sub-10 price).
Wind from the Sea
