Misty's Vitality — 111/084

Name: Misty's Vitality #111/084
Brand: Pokémon
SKU: raw~tcgdex:me05-111:EN:HOLO~NM
Availability: InStock

Floor FormingAt Fair ValueAccumulation

Mkt Price

$16.05-2.0%

Fair Value

$16.61

Band $15.74–$17.49

Liquidity

95/100

Good liquidity

Pop 30D

+225.0%

Velocity

0.8/day

30D avg

Days Inv

398days

Heavy

SizeBid

1$18.00

1$17.00

1$16.00

Cross-Market Basis$1.509.1%

AskSize

$16.501

$16.701

$16.951

$51.00

$1,016.031 excl.

as of Sep 1, 2026 · UTC · demo fixture

Misty's Vitality — 111/084 · 1DO$16.08H$16.08L$16.08C$16.08+1.4%plotting daily close

Vol — sold·0 prints·1 obssingle obs — no range

Live Listings

PriceMarkQtyCond

TCGplayer0

eBay0

Asks at delivered prices · cheapest first · unknown shipping unranked

Fair Value

Estimated Fair Value

$16.61

Fair Value Range

$15.74 – $17.49

Deviation

-0.7%At Fair Value

vs best delivered ask $16.50

$15.74 low$17.49 high

Components

Sales VWAP$16.9840%

Depth clearing$17.1525%

Trend anchor$16.1220%

Auction clearing$15.4015%

Band is ±5.3% of the point estimate: all 4 components available, on 30 observation(s) in the trailing 30d. Thin samples and missing components widen the band 1.00x over the raw component spread.

Supply

Raw Listing Supply

318

-7.6% 30d

Graded Population

130

+225.0% 30d

PSA 1041+241.7%

PSA 966+230.0%

PSA ALL130+225.0%

Velocity 0.8/dDays of inventory 398dHeavy

Microstructure

Liquidity Score

95/100Good

Turnover

Market Depth

$1,016.03

top 5 ask levels

Cross-Market Basis

$1.50+9.1%

Asks are live fixed-price listings at delivered prices (item + required shipping). Bids are live auction bids — a structurally separate market from fixed-price listings. The gap between the best bid and the best ask is a cross-market basis, not a bid/ask spread. 1 unit(s) with unknown shipping are excluded from the ask side — they have no delivered price.

Impact (1 lot)

0.0%

Impact (5 lots)

3.9%

Accumulation / Distribution

Net Flow (30D)

+$251.65

Accumulation

Buyers / Sellers

3.80x

More Buyers

Large Txns

16%

≥ $19.40

Net Flow by Period

+$75.77

−$15.01

Smart Money Signal · Accumulating

Over 30d: 24 confirmed print(s); net flow +$251.65 across 19 buy-side vs 5 sell-side unit(s); large prints (>= $19.40) were 16% of notional and skewed buy-side -> ACCUMULATING.

52.0

Quant Score / 100

Floor confidence: 51.1

-3% penalty (1 missing)

Price Trend33

Supply Tightness58

Absorption50

Auction Demand25

Liquidity95

Attention Quality32

Grading Reflexivity70

Relative Strength56

Collector AppealN/A

Reprint/Supply Risk80

Data Quality90

Missing: collectorAppeal

Top drivers

Liquidity scored 95/100 (composite weight 10%).

Auction demand scored 25/100 (composite weight 10%).

Data quality scored 90/100 (composite weight 6%).

Price trend scored 33/100 (composite weight 14%).

Reprint supply risk scored 80/100 (composite weight 6%).

Grading reflexivity scored 70/100 (composite weight 6%).

d1 —d7 —

Auctions

Weak demand

Completed auctions clear $15.40 median ($15.47 mean), vs a $16.50 BIN floor — -6.7% spread (6 sales).

Active

$12.003 bidsends in 18h 3m

$13.005 bidsends in 1d 5h

$14.007 bidsends in 1d 21h

Grading

Grade	Pop	% pop	p	Price	Net	ROI
PSA 10	41	31.5%	—	—	—	—
PSA 9	66	50.8%	—	—	—	—
Total	130	+17 7d		Aug 27, 2026

Total population trend

Absorption / Attention

NEUTRAL

Over 30d: inventory -7.6%, cheap depth no data, sales velocity -82.6% -> NEUTRAL.

Inventory

Attentionunconfirmed by sales

Why It's Moving

What changed: Sold median moved -2.0% over the trailing 7 days and -8.9% over 30 days, last printing at $16.05. Active TCGplayer listings fell 3% over the same 7 days to 318.
Primary explanation: Primary read: Liquidity scored 95/100 (composite weight 10%). — the largest single contributor to the current FLOOR_FORMING regime read.
Alternative: Alternative explanation: Auction demand scored 25/100 (composite weight 10%).. With 43 distinct sellers/observations in the trailing window, either read is defensible — this is not a high-conviction single-cause move.
Evidence: Evidence: raw~tcgdex:me05-111:EN:HOLO~NM|SOLD_MEDIAN|TCGPLAYER, raw~tcgdex:me05-111:EN:HOLO~NM|LISTING_COUNT|TCGPLAYER, absorption read ("Over 30d: inventory -7.6%, cheap depth no data, sales velocity -82.6% -> NEUTRAL.").
Confidence: Confidence: 30% (floor-confidence 51/100), based on 42 days of observations.
What would disprove it: This read would be wrong if active listings rebound above 366 while sold median keeps falling.

Recommendation

WATCHFLOOR thesis30-120d horizon

Scenario	Prob.	Description
BASE	50%	FLOOR_FORMING persists near current levels.
BULL	15%	Absorption/demand corroboration strengthens faster than expected, accelerating the thesis.
BEAR	35%	Supply returns or demand fails to corroborate, invalidating the thesis sooner than expected.

Catalysts

+Liquidity scored 95/100 (composite weight 10%).
+Data quality scored 90/100 (composite weight 6%).
+Grading reflexivity scored 70/100 (composite weight 6%).

Risks

−Auction demand scored 25/100 (composite weight 10%).
−Price trend scored 33/100 (composite weight 14%).
−Reprint supply risk scored 80/100 (composite weight 6%).

Invalidation

✗If "7d return flat at -2.0% (quiet market)" reverses, the FLOOR_FORMING read (and this thesis) is invalidated.
✗If "34.3% below peak" reverses, the FLOOR_FORMING read (and this thesis) is invalidated.

The strongest case against this thesis: Auction demand scored 25/100 (composite weight 10%).

Next evidence

›More evidence on collectorAppeal would sharpen this read.

Research classification generated from observable market data with stated confidence and assumptions. Not personalized financial advice.

Undervalued Opportunities

Loading opportunities…

Misty's Vitality — 111/084

Floor FormingAt Fair ValueAccumulation

Mkt Price

$16.05-2.0%

Fair Value

$16.61

Band $15.74–$17.49

Liquidity

95/100

Good liquidity

Pop 30D

+225.0%

Velocity

0.8/day

30D avg

Days Inv

398days

Heavy

SizeBid

1$18.00

1$17.00

1$16.00

Cross-Market Basis$1.509.1%

AskSize

$16.501

$16.701

$16.951

$51.00

$1,016.031 excl.

as of Sep 1, 2026 · UTC · demo fixture

Misty's Vitality — 111/084 · 1DO$16.08H$16.08L$16.08C$16.08+1.4%plotting daily close

Vol — sold·0 prints·1 obssingle obs — no range

Live Listings

PriceMarkQtyCond

TCGplayer0

eBay0

Asks at delivered prices · cheapest first · unknown shipping unranked

Fair Value

Estimated Fair Value

$16.61

Fair Value Range

$15.74 – $17.49

Deviation

-0.7%At Fair Value

vs best delivered ask $16.50

$15.74 low$17.49 high

Components

Sales VWAP$16.9840%

Depth clearing$17.1525%

Trend anchor$16.1220%

Auction clearing$15.4015%

Band is ±5.3% of the point estimate: all 4 components available, on 30 observation(s) in the trailing 30d. Thin samples and missing components widen the band 1.00x over the raw component spread.

Supply

Raw Listing Supply

318

-7.6% 30d

Graded Population

130

+225.0% 30d

PSA 1041+241.7%

PSA 966+230.0%

PSA ALL130+225.0%

Velocity 0.8/dDays of inventory 398dHeavy

Microstructure

Liquidity Score

95/100Good

Turnover

Market Depth

$1,016.03

top 5 ask levels

Cross-Market Basis

$1.50+9.1%

Impact (1 lot)

0.0%

Impact (5 lots)

3.9%

Accumulation / Distribution

Net Flow (30D)

+$251.65

Accumulation

Buyers / Sellers

3.80x

More Buyers

Large Txns

16%

≥ $19.40

Net Flow by Period

+$75.77

−$15.01

Smart Money Signal · Accumulating

Over 30d: 24 confirmed print(s); net flow +$251.65 across 19 buy-side vs 5 sell-side unit(s); large prints (>= $19.40) were 16% of notional and skewed buy-side -> ACCUMULATING.

52.0

Quant Score / 100

Floor confidence: 51.1

-3% penalty (1 missing)

Price Trend33

Supply Tightness58

Absorption50

Auction Demand25

Liquidity95

Attention Quality32

Grading Reflexivity70

Relative Strength56

Collector AppealN/A

Reprint/Supply Risk80

Data Quality90

Missing: collectorAppeal

Top drivers

Liquidity scored 95/100 (composite weight 10%).

Auction demand scored 25/100 (composite weight 10%).

Data quality scored 90/100 (composite weight 6%).

Price trend scored 33/100 (composite weight 14%).

Reprint supply risk scored 80/100 (composite weight 6%).

Grading reflexivity scored 70/100 (composite weight 6%).

d1 —d7 —

Auctions

Weak demand

Completed auctions clear $15.40 median ($15.47 mean), vs a $16.50 BIN floor — -6.7% spread (6 sales).

Active

$12.003 bidsends in 18h 3m

$13.005 bidsends in 1d 5h

$14.007 bidsends in 1d 21h

Grading

Grade	Pop	% pop	p	Price	Net	ROI
PSA 10	41	31.5%	—	—	—	—
PSA 9	66	50.8%	—	—	—	—
Total	130	+17 7d		Aug 27, 2026

Total population trend

Absorption / Attention

NEUTRAL

Over 30d: inventory -7.6%, cheap depth no data, sales velocity -82.6% -> NEUTRAL.

Inventory

Attentionunconfirmed by sales

Why It's Moving

What changed: Sold median moved -2.0% over the trailing 7 days and -8.9% over 30 days, last printing at $16.05. Active TCGplayer listings fell 3% over the same 7 days to 318.
Primary explanation: Primary read: Liquidity scored 95/100 (composite weight 10%). — the largest single contributor to the current FLOOR_FORMING regime read.
Alternative: Alternative explanation: Auction demand scored 25/100 (composite weight 10%).. With 43 distinct sellers/observations in the trailing window, either read is defensible — this is not a high-conviction single-cause move.
Evidence: Evidence: raw~tcgdex:me05-111:EN:HOLO~NM|SOLD_MEDIAN|TCGPLAYER, raw~tcgdex:me05-111:EN:HOLO~NM|LISTING_COUNT|TCGPLAYER, absorption read ("Over 30d: inventory -7.6%, cheap depth no data, sales velocity -82.6% -> NEUTRAL.").
Confidence: Confidence: 30% (floor-confidence 51/100), based on 42 days of observations.
What would disprove it: This read would be wrong if active listings rebound above 366 while sold median keeps falling.

Recommendation

WATCHFLOOR thesis30-120d horizon

Scenario	Prob.	Description
BASE	50%	FLOOR_FORMING persists near current levels.
BULL	15%	Absorption/demand corroboration strengthens faster than expected, accelerating the thesis.
BEAR	35%	Supply returns or demand fails to corroborate, invalidating the thesis sooner than expected.

Catalysts

+Liquidity scored 95/100 (composite weight 10%).
+Data quality scored 90/100 (composite weight 6%).
+Grading reflexivity scored 70/100 (composite weight 6%).

Risks

−Auction demand scored 25/100 (composite weight 10%).
−Price trend scored 33/100 (composite weight 14%).
−Reprint supply risk scored 80/100 (composite weight 6%).

Invalidation

✗If "7d return flat at -2.0% (quiet market)" reverses, the FLOOR_FORMING read (and this thesis) is invalidated.
✗If "34.3% below peak" reverses, the FLOOR_FORMING read (and this thesis) is invalidated.

The strongest case against this thesis: Auction demand scored 25/100 (composite weight 10%).

Next evidence

›More evidence on collectorAppeal would sharpen this read.

Research classification generated from observable market data with stated confidence and assumptions. Not personalized financial advice.

Undervalued Opportunities

Loading opportunities…

Provider	Source	Observed	Confidence	Modelled	License
TCGDEX	—	Jul 17, 2026	98%	No	TCGdex catalog
FIXTURE_IMPORT	view source	Aug 27, 2026	95%	No	—
EBAY_BROWSE	view source	Sep 1, 2026	90%	No	eBay Browse API search result.
TCGPLAYER_PUBLIC	view source	Sep 1, 2026	75%	Yes	TCGplayer median of active listings; modelled, never presented as a sale.

Provider	Source	Observed	Confidence	Modelled	License
TCGDEX	—	Jul 17, 2026	98%	No	TCGdex catalog
FIXTURE_IMPORT	view source	Aug 27, 2026	95%	No	—
EBAY_BROWSE	view source	Sep 1, 2026	90%	No	eBay Browse API search result.
TCGPLAYER_PUBLIC	view source	Sep 1, 2026	75%	Yes	TCGplayer median of active listings; modelled, never presented as a sale.