# Lugia BREAK #79/124 — Fates Collide

## Summary

Lugia BREAK is an Ultra Rare from the XY era's BREAK evolutions, built around the Gen II guardian of the seas, a Pokémon whose fan following has held steady since Gold and Silver. Its heavy energy discard kept it more of a collector's pickup than a staple. The modelled guide sits at $50, up 16% over 30 days on 120 copies traded, with only 20 days of inventory on the board; the slab is the real edge, with PSA 10s at $1,475 and a 30% observed gem rate putting about $290 of expected profit per submission.

## Identity

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Set | Fates Collide |
| Number | 79/124 |
| Rarity | Ultra Rare |
| Era | XY |
| Illustrator | 5ban Graphics |
| Release date | 2016-05-02 |
| Image | Unavailable |

## Card details

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Card type | POKEMON |
| Stage | BREAK |
| Evolves from | Lugia |
| HP | 150 |
| Types | Colorless |
| Attack: Flash of Destruction | cost Colorless/Colorless/Colorless/Colorless — damage 150 — Discard 2 Energy attached to this Pokémon. |
| Retreat | 0 |
| Legal | Standard no · Expanded yes |
| Pokédex entry | [Lugia #249](https://cardboardalpha.com/pokemon/pokedex/lugia) |
| Finishes | Holo |
| Languages | EN |

## Current stats

- Headline price: **$49.51** (ITEM_MEDIAN; modelled guide price) — as of 2026-11-04
- Headline basis: MODELLED_GUIDE — The venue’s published daily market guide, which the venue itself declares MODELLED. Nothing is confirmed to have traded at it, no copy is listed at it, and it is not our estimate — it is theirs.
- 24h change: 0.00% · 7d change: -21.10% — as of 2026-11-04
- Floor delivered ask: $48.72 — as of 2026-11-04T01:40:48.681Z
- Quant score: 68/100, regime EXHAUSTION — as of 2026-11-04T01:40:48.681Z — 8 of 11 inputs · 81% weight · -9% confidence

## Provenance

- Catalog — observed 2016-05-02T00:00:00Z, confidence 98%
- Live ask — observed 2026-11-04T01:33:30.462Z, confidence 90%
- Open auction — observed 2026-09-14T07:05:55.281Z, confidence 90%
- Price statistic — observed 2026-11-04T01:33:30.462Z, confidence 90%
- Confirmed sale — observed 2026-11-03T21:51:39.973Z, confidence 85%
- Inventory count — observed 2026-11-04T01:33:30.462Z, confidence 70%
- Guide price (modelled) — observed 2026-11-04T00:00:00.000Z, confidence 60%
- Population census — observed 2026-11-03T09:26:17.406Z, confidence 60%

## Links

- [View on Cardboard Alpha](https://cardboardalpha.com/pokemon/fates-collide/lugia-break-79)
- [JSON snapshot](https://cardboardalpha.com/api/terminal/raw~tcgdex%3Axy10-79%3AEN%3AHOLO~NM)