Chesnaught #007/086 · Chaos Rising · Price & Chart · PokéQuant

Chesnaught — 007/086

Name: Chesnaught #007/086
Brand: Pokémon
SKU: raw~tcgdex:me04-007:EN:NORMAL~NM

MarkupAt Fair ValueDEMO

Mkt Price

$2.86+0.7%

Fair Value

$2.76

Band $2.51–$3.01

Liquidity

73/100

Good liquidity

Pop 30DN/A

VelocityN/A

Days InvN/A

No resting bid book — collectibles fixed-price markets have no bids.Auction bids appear here when live.

Cross-Market Basis——

No active listings.

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as of Aug 27, 2026 · UTC · demo fixture

Chesnaught — 007/086 · 1DO$2.86H$2.86L$2.86C$2.86+0.7%plotting daily close

Vol — sold·0 prints·1 obssingle obs — no range

Live Listings

PriceMarkQtyCond

TCGplayer0

eBay0

Asks at delivered prices · cheapest first · unknown shipping unranked

Fair Value

Estimated Fair Value

$2.76

Fair Value Range

$2.51 – $3.01

Deviation

+3.7%At Fair Value

vs best delivered ask $2.86

Auctions

Insufficient data demand

Not enough completed auctions to price a demand spread for this instrument.

Grading

No graded population or grading economics modelled for this printing.

Absorption / Attention

NEUTRAL

Over 30d: inventory +5.5%, cheap depth no data, sales velocity no data -> NEUTRAL.

Inventory

Why It's Moving

What changed: Sold median moved +2.1% over the trailing 7 days and +3.6% over 30 days, last printing at $2.86. Active TCGplayer listings fell 0% over the same 7 days to 384.
Primary explanation: Primary read: Liquidity scored 73/100 (composite weight 10%). — the largest single contributor to the current MARKUP regime read.
Alternative: Alternative explanation: Data quality scored 73/100 (composite weight 6%).. With 0 distinct sellers/observations in the trailing window, either read is defensible — this is not a high-conviction single-cause move.
Evidence: Evidence: raw~tcgdex:me04-007:EN:NORMAL~NM|SOLD_MEDIAN|TCGPLAYER, raw~tcgdex:me04-007:EN:NORMAL~NM|LISTING_COUNT|TCGPLAYER, absorption read ("Over 30d: inventory +5.5%, cheap depth no data, sales velocity no data -> NEUTRAL.").
Confidence: Confidence: 40% (floor-confidence 43/100), based on 30 days of observations.
What would disprove it: This read would be wrong if active listings rebound above 442 while sold median keeps falling.

Recommendation

HOLDMOMENTUM thesis14-60d horizon

Scenario	Prob.	Description
BASE	50%	MARKUP persists near current levels.
BULL	20%	Absorption/demand corroboration strengthens faster than expected, accelerating the thesis.
BEAR	30%	Supply returns or demand fails to corroborate, invalidating the thesis sooner than expected.

Catalysts

+Liquidity scored 73/100 (composite weight 10%).
+Data quality scored 73/100 (composite weight 6%).
+7d return +2.1% (>= 2%, no other regime rule fired)

Risks

Reprint supply risk scored 60/100 (composite weight 6%).

Undervalued Opportunities

Loading opportunities…

Provider	Source	Observed	Confidence	Modelled	License
TCGDEX	—	May 22, 2026	98%	No	TCGdex catalog
FIXTURE_IMPORT	—	Aug 27, 2026	50%	No	—