Poliwag #59/102 · Base Set · Price & Chart · PokéQuant
Poliwag — 59/102
▼Falling▾UndervaluedDEMO
Mkt Price
$0.39▼-4.9%
Fair Value
$0.51
Band $0.47–$0.56
Liquidity
74/100
Good liquidity
Pop 30DN/A
VelocityN/A
Days InvN/A
No resting bid book — collectibles fixed-price markets have no bids.Auction bids appear here when live.
Cross-Market Basis——
No active listings.
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DRW
as of Aug 27, 2026 · UTC · demo fixture
Poliwag — 59/102 · 1DO$0.39H$0.39L$0.39C$0.39▼-4.9%plotting daily close
Vol — sold·0 prints·1 obssingle obs — no range
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RSI 14
Live Listings
PriceMarkQtyCond
TCGplayer0
eBay0
Asks at delivered prices · cheapest first · unknown shipping unranked
Fair Value
Estimated Fair Value
$0.51
Fair Value Range
$0.47 – $0.56
Deviation
-24.2%Below Fair Value
vs best delivered ask $0.39
Auctions
?Insufficient data demand
Not enough completed auctions to price a demand spread for this instrument.
Grading
No graded population or grading economics modelled for this printing.
Absorption / Attention
REPLENISHMENT
Over 30d: inventory +12.5%, cheap depth no data, sales velocity no data -> REPLENISHMENT.
Inventory
Why It's Moving
What changed
Sold median moved -23.5% over the trailing 7 days and -27.8% over 30 days, last printing at $0.39. Active TCGplayer listings rose 13% over the same 7 days to 450.
Primary explanation
Primary read: Price trend scored 0/100 (composite weight 14%). — the largest single contributor to the current FALLING regime read.
Alternative
Alternative explanation: Supply tightness scored 16/100 (composite weight 12%).. With 0 distinct sellers/observations in the trailing window, either read is defensible — this is not a high-conviction single-cause move.
Evidence
Evidence: raw~tcgdex:base1-59:EN:NORMAL~NM|SOLD_MEDIAN|TCGPLAYER, raw~tcgdex:base1-59:EN:NORMAL~NM|LISTING_COUNT|TCGPLAYER, absorption read ("Over 30d: inventory +12.5%, cheap depth no data, sales velocity no data -> REPLENISHMENT.").
Confidence
Confidence: 50% (floor-confidence 34/100), based on 30 days of observations.
What would disprove it
This read would be wrong if active listings rebound above 518 while sold median keeps falling.
Recommendation
WAITFLOOR thesis30-120d horizon
Scenario
Prob.
Description
BASE
50%
FALLING persists near current levels.
BULL
25%
Absorption/demand corroboration strengthens faster than expected, accelerating the thesis.
BEAR
25%
Supply returns or demand fails to corroborate, invalidating the thesis sooner than expected.
Band is ±9.0% of the point estimate: 1 of 4 components available (missing: sales vwap, depth clearing, auction clearing — 80% of weight reweighted away, 35% confidence penalty), on 0 observation(s) in the trailing 30d. Thin samples and missing components widen the band 4.50x over the raw component spread.
Supply
Raw Listing Supply
450
+12.5% 30d
Graded Population
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Velocity —Days of inventory —Unknown
Microstructure
Liquidity Score
74/100Good
Turnover
Market Depth
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top 0 ask levels
Cross-Market Basis
No bid evidence — Asks are live fixed-price listings at delivered prices (item + required shipping). No bid side exists: this market has no resting bid book. There are no live auction bids and no published buylist for this instrument, so the bid side is empty rather than synthesized from asks, price history or a spread assumption.
Impact (1 lot)
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Impact (5 lots)
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Accumulation / Distribution
Net Flow (30D)
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Buyers / Sellers
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Large Txns
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threshold n/a
Smart Money Signal · Insufficient Data
Insufficient data: 0 classified print(s) of 0 in the trailing 30d; need >= 8.